ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[silverfuture]

BTC0.34  

No comments on this?

btc/usd tanked

And Bitcoin investors don't quite grasp that the value of Bitcoin ASICs depends on said bitcoins having value.

Bitcoin/USD exchange rate being down helps us as AM investors.  FC has already paid for the materials to build our mine (fairly safe assumption), he is going to be able to bring online a static amount of hash-power.  Lower btc/usd value means less new entrants into the mining ecosystem, less investment from current participants and generally slower network growth.  Lower btc/usd value means that we will be able to hold a larger % of the network for longer increasing our BTC dividends. (which is what I care about at this stage)

As someone who has no interest in selling BTC for a long while, this is all positive in my eyes.

This is predicated on other players not having sunk money into their product--an unjustified assumption.
Lower BTC/USD price makes mining less profitable--electricity and hosting costs, which must be paid in fiat, remain constant, while the return--price of the mined BTC--is lower.
It's reasonable to assume that the price one can charge for hashpower will also be lower.

That is true, which is why a company like AM who has lots of already paid for, inexpensive, in-hand hardware will do better than those who are hoping to sell pre-orders to fund their next round of NRE, chips, etc.  The squeeze is on for all asic producers and miners and the ones in the best reputation and position to ride it out will be the ones left standing.

[sporket]

BTC0.34  

No comments on this?

btc/usd tanked

And Bitcoin investors don't quite grasp that the value of Bitcoin ASICs depends on said bitcoins having value.

Bitcoin/USD exchange rate being down helps us as AM investors.  FC has already paid for the materials to build our mine (fairly safe assumption), he is going to be able to bring online a static amount of hash-power.  Lower btc/usd value means less new entrants into the mining ecosystem, less investment from current participants and generally slower network growth.  Lower btc/usd value means that we will be able to hold a larger % of the network for longer increasing our BTC dividends. (which is what I care about at this stage)

As someone who has no interest in selling BTC for a long while, this is all positive in my eyes.

This is predicated on other players not having sunk money into their product--an unjustified assumption.
Lower BTC/USD price makes mining less profitable--electricity and hosting costs, which must be paid in fiat, remain constant, while the return--price of the mined BTC--is lower.
It's reasonable to assume that the price one can charge for hashpower will also be lower.

depends on your capital and whether you sell devices or mine

Makes no difference whether you mine or sell.
Self-mining requires hosting and electricity--both to be paid in fiat.  When (electricity+hosting) cost more than (the bitcoins mined with that electricity and hosting), the gear is at the break-even point--it is worth nothing.  That's why both miners and ASIC manufacturers depend on high Bitcoin exchange rate.
No one in his right mind would spend money on mining gear that doesn't break even.*
*Truth.  Unchanged by the fact that Bitcoin miners have done just that.  Constantly.   AM's business model relied on the coin of these lunatics.  As did pretty much every other ASIC manufacturer.

[sporket]

...
This is predicated on other players not having sunk money into their product--an unjustified assumption.
Lower BTC/USD price makes mining less profitable--electricity and hosting costs, which must be paid in fiat, remain constant, while the return--price of the mined BTC--is lower.
It's reasonable to assume that the price one can charge for hashpower will also be lower.

That is true, which is why a company like AM who has lots of already paid for, inexpensive [citation needed], in-hand [citation needed] hardware will do better than those who are hoping to sell pre-orders to fund their next round of NRE, chips, etc.  The squeeze is on for all asic producers and miners and the ones in the best reputation and position to ride it out will be the ones left standing.

I'm not disputing that the best ASIC manufacturers will be the ones left standing, merely that *ALL* ASIC manufacturers will suffer from lower BTC exchange rate.  This should be obvious.

[trek27]

I think dhenson raised here very interesting aspect:

Lower btc/usd price surely can have positive impact on the most efficient players (hopefully AM included ) simply because it hurts more weaker competition. Of course at certain point (low enough btc price) AM could become the victim - hopefully this point is far, far away from here.  

[CoinBomb]

although AM just started pricing in BTC. this drop will hurt profits a lot, unless prices are rebased.

[hdbuck]

although AM just started pricing in BTC. this drop will hurt profits a lot, unless prices are rebased.

The drop is just going to boost the sales hard. There is quantity to be sold, and by then, back to $600-700 easy.

[freedomno1]

although AM just started pricing in BTC. this drop will hurt profits a lot, unless prices are rebased.

the drop is just going to boost the sales hard. and by then, back to $600-700 easy.

It could be a double dip play if it times fairly well
Price decrease increasing bitcoin value + dividend stream when the price goes back up so its definitely interesting.
Kind of bummed the bitcoin price is dropping hard but it'll come back again to 420 1 Last time XD

[hdbuck]

although AM just started pricing in BTC. this drop will hurt profits a lot, unless prices are rebased.

the drop is just going to boost the sales hard. and by then, back to $600-700 easy.

It could be a double dip play if it times fairly well
Price decrease increasing bitcoin value + dividend stream when the price goes back up so its definitely interesting.
Kind of bummed the bitcoin price is dropping hard but it'll come back again to 420 1 Last time XD

Yea, i figured btc price doesnt matter that much since we want quick divs that we will hold on to anyway. It's all about the expansion, the quantity.
Sell bulks, mine the rest. in such way that it will increase dramatically the global hashrate and kill the competition with their preorders, making sure they NEVER roi.
It is FC's winning strike window. And its a short one, so btc price should not matter that much. profit will follow.

[silverfuture]

...
This is predicated on other players not having sunk money into their product--an unjustified assumption.
Lower BTC/USD price makes mining less profitable--electricity and hosting costs, which must be paid in fiat, remain constant, while the return--price of the mined BTC--is lower.
It's reasonable to assume that the price one can charge for hashpower will also be lower.

That is true, which is why a company like AM who has lots of already paid for, inexpensive [citation needed], in-hand [citation needed] hardware will do better than those who are hoping to sell pre-orders to fund their next round of NRE, chips, etc.  The squeeze is on for all asic producers and miners and the ones in the best reputation and position to ride it out will be the ones left standing.

I'm not disputing that the best ASIC manufacturers will be the ones left standing, merely that *ALL* ASIC manufacturers will suffer from lower BTC exchange rate.  This should be obvious.

Well, thanks for pointing out the obvious then.  I'm merely claiming that AM is well positioned for this environment. Why are citations needed? It's easy to know that AM has the hardware in hand and the price is very competitive.

[JoTheKhan]

although AM just started pricing in BTC. this drop will hurt profits a lot, unless prices are rebased.

The drop is just going to boost the sales hard. There is quantity to be sold, and by then, back to $600-700 easy.

If the BE300 is already paid for then this drop isn't going to hurt us much at all. It will only hurt us when we convert from BTC to USD or BTC or Yuan, which happens when it comes to paying bills, paying taxes, paying employees, paying for stuff for the business.

If most of the money from these sales go to divs then it actually helps us, as people can now buy the miners for less USD but the same BTC. So our BTC div will be higher as more people will buy more machines. Now if you're holding the BTC you get from Divs then this drop is actually helping you a little. But BTC can't drop too far or it will be detrimental.

[zhinkk]

although AM just started pricing in BTC. this drop will hurt profits a lot, unless prices are rebased.

As someone not informed with this, how does pricing in BTC cause profits to drop?

[silverfuture]

although AM just started pricing in BTC. this drop will hurt profits a lot, unless prices are rebased.

As someone not informed with this, how does pricing in BTC cause profits to drop?

Hardware is priced in BTC, BTC profits remain the same, USD profits suffer because of lower BTC/USD value since Friedcat made the announcement.

EDIT  This also makes AM hardware more attractive to fiat holders wanting hardware.

[sporket]

...
This is predicated on other players not having sunk money into their product--an unjustified assumption.
Lower BTC/USD price makes mining less profitable--electricity and hosting costs, which must be paid in fiat, remain constant, while the return--price of the mined BTC--is lower.
It's reasonable to assume that the price one can charge for hashpower will also be lower.

That is true, which is why a company like AM who has lots of already paid for, inexpensive [citation needed], in-hand [citation needed] hardware will do better than those who are hoping to sell pre-orders to fund their next round of NRE, chips, etc.  The squeeze is on for all asic producers and miners and the ones in the best reputation and position to ride it out will be the ones left standing.

I'm not disputing that the best ASIC manufacturers will be the ones left standing, merely that *ALL* ASIC manufacturers will suffer from lower BTC exchange rate.  This should be obvious.

Well, thanks for pointing out the obvious then.  I'm merely claiming that AM is well positioned for this environment. Why are citations needed? It's easy to know that AM has the hardware in hand and the price is very competitive.

Unless you have access to AM books, as well as those of other ASIC manufacturers, you are not in a position to say anything meaningful of AM costs, or the amount of stock AM has compared to its competitors.  This, again, seems self-evident.  Feel free to drop some numbers.

Regarding AM being "well positioned for this environment."  When the gold rush is over, you're right to say that only the bad-assiest shovel merchants will survive.  But even allowing that AM is, in fact, the biggest baddest shovel merchant, concluding that vanishing profit margins is actually a good thing (because it would hurt other merchants more, possibly driving them out of business)...  That's a bit of a stretch, no?

[sporket]

although AM just started pricing in BTC. this drop will hurt profits a lot, unless prices are rebased.

As someone not informed with this, how does pricing in BTC cause profits to drop?

Hardware is priced in BTC, BTC profits remain the same, USD profits suffer because of lower BTC/USD value since Friedcat made the announcement.

EDIT  This also makes AM hardware more attractive to fiat holders wanting hardware.

BTC profits do not remain the same.  Regardless of whether AM prices its products in fiat or BTC, the expenses--foundry, assembly houses, parts suppliers, electricity, etc--those are fiat expenses.  BTC has to be converted to fiat to cover those.  Obviously one has to pay more BTC (for the same amount of fiat) when the exchange rate is lower, by definition.  If you pay more BTC, less BTC gets left over as profit.  Why does this even need to be explained?

[silverfuture]

Unless you have access to AM books, as well as those of other ASIC manufacturers, you are not in a position to say anything meaningful of AM costs, or the amount of stock AM has compared to its competitors.  This, again, seems self-evident.  Feel free to drop some numbers.

Regarding AM being "well positioned for this environment."  When the gold rush is over, you're right to say that only the bad-assiest shovel merchants will survive.  But even allowing that AM is, in fact, the biggest baddest shovel merchant, concluding that vanishing profit margins is actually a good thing (because it would hurt other merchants more, possibly driving them out of business)...  That's a bit of a stretch, no?

I don't think it's that much of a stretch. I don't have accurate numbers but do a lot of reading around here and this is my best guess. Do you know of many companies with in hand hardware that is currently shipping anything better or cheaper than AM? Where would you buy hardware right now if you were going to?  Of course vanishing profit margins are never a good thing but you can be relatively better or worse positioned at the time compared to the competition. Pre-orders will be slaughtered.  

[dhenson]

[silverfuture]

although AM just started pricing in BTC. this drop will hurt profits a lot, unless prices are rebased.

As someone not informed with this, how does pricing in BTC cause profits to drop?

Hardware is priced in BTC, BTC profits remain the same, USD profits suffer because of lower BTC/USD value since Friedcat made the announcement.

EDIT  This also makes AM hardware more attractive to fiat holders wanting hardware.

BTC profits do not remain the same.  Regardless of whether AM prices its products in fiat or BTC, the expenses--foundry, assembly houses, parts suppliers, electricity, etc--those are fiat expenses.  BTC has to be converted to fiat to cover those.  Obviously one has to pay more BTC (for the same amount of fiat) when the exchange rate is lower, by definition.  If you pay more BTC, less BTC gets left over as profit.  Why does this even need to be explained?

What makes you think that Friedcat would not have already paid for this when he was planning to sell hardware. The chips for this round have long been paid for and I'm not entirely sure what else has but it doesn't seem likely that they are just starting to think about "foundry, assembly houses, parts" for units that are being sold as we speak. So you are correct so long as there are bills remaining for hardware relative to the proportion of costs still to be paid.

[EternalWingsofGod]

Hmm this was interesting

AM signature campaign now if Escrow is Friedcat 

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=739269.0

Another new deal arrived: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=739269.0

No escrow yet though so take that into consideration.

[sharky101]

Hmm this was interesting

AM signature campaign now if Escrow is Friedcat 

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=739269.0

Another new deal arrived: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=739269.0

No escrow yet though so take that into consideration.

I for one, being a low posting user and a shareholder of AM would be happy to do so for free. Anyone else willing to give up their sig space?

[Whtwabbit]

I'm in (but I'll have to stop trolling )