My guesstimate for the next local bottom is 210$ - 215$, with rebound to 225$ - 230$, followed by a lot more downtrend.
Stopping now at 221$ would be somewhat bullish IMO.

Sometimes the obvious scenario just happens, like now... so down Down DOWN!

Since Kobayashi opened bankruptcy proceedings of Tibanne, he will be forced to give a % back (how much % is the question), quoting:

While I have continually and strongly claimed against TIBANNE Co., Ltd.
(“TIBANNE”), which is the parent company of MtGox Co., Ltd. (“MtGox”), for
repayment of the loan receivables that MtGox has against TIBANNE, repayment from
TIBANNE has not yet been made. Accordingly, on January 29, 2015, I applied for
commencement of the bankruptcy proceeding for TIBANNE, as a creditor thereof, with
permission from the Tokyo District Court. In response, on January 30, 2015, the
Tokyo District Court issued an order of commencement of the bankruptcy proceeding
for TIBANNE.
I, as the Bankruptcy Trustee of MtGox, will continue to make efforts to take
necessary measures with respect to collection of receivables due from affiliated
companies, etc.

Quoting from the 22nd April 2015 report, a total of about 1.3 billion yen (over 10 million dollars) is owed by Karpeles to MtGox depositors.

1. TIBANNE Co., Ltd.
The bankrupt entity has recognized that it has loan receivables in the amount of
JPY 772,791,001 (based on the settlement accounts of the bankrupt entity as of
April 24, 2014) against TIBANNE Co., Ltd., which is the parent company of the
bankrupt entity. Therefore, I claimed for repayment of the loan receivables
against TIBANNE Co., Ltd. However, I could not receive any repayment from
TIBANNE Co., Ltd.
Therefore, I filed for the commencement of bankruptcy proceedings against
TIBANNE Co., Ltd. on January 29, 2015. As a result, on January 30, 2015, the
court ordered that such bankruptcy proceedings be commenced (Tokyo District
Court 2015 (fu) No. 585). I plan to collect the receivables properly by filing a
bankruptcy claim form during the process of the bankruptcy proceedings against
TIBANNE Co., Ltd.
2. K.K. Shade 3D
Since the bankrupt entity has loan receivables in the amount of JPY 338,139,321
(amount based on the settlement accounts of the bankrupt entity as of April 24,
2014) against K.K. Shade 3D, which is a subsidiary of TIBANNE Co., Ltd., I
claimed for repayment against K.K. Shade 3D and continue to negotiate such
repayment. If voluntary repayment from K.K. Shade 3D is not likely to occur, I
plan to consider taking necessary legal action.
3. K.K. Bitcoin. Cafe
The bankrupt entity has filed its proof of bankruptcy claims (consisting of loan
receivables in the amount of JPY 60,000,000 and accrued interest) in the process
of the bankruptcy proceedings against K.K. Bitcoin. Cafe. However, one of the
creditors of K.K. Bitcoin. Cafe objected to the full amount of the aforementioned
bankruptcy claims. In response, I filed a petition for bankruptcy claim
assessment against such creditor to the Tokyo District Court in November 2014.
The Tokyo District Court then determined on February 12, 2015 that the assessed
value of such bankruptcy claim is the same as the value stated in the filed
bankruptcy claims. However, the above creditor filed an action to object to the
bankruptcy claim assessment on March 11, 2015. The case is currently heard
before the Tokyo District Court as the case for the objection to the bankruptcy
claim assessment (2015 (wa) No. 6570).
4. Robert Marie Mark Karpeles
Since the bankrupt entity has loan receivables in the amount of JPY 136,175,781
(amount based on the settlement accounts of the bankrupt entity as of April 24,
2014) against Robert Marie Mark Karpeles, who is the representative director of
the bankrupt entity, I claimed for repayment of the loan by him and continue to
negotiate such repayment. However, since he has so far not presented any
repayment plan to me, if voluntary repayment from him is not likely to occur, I
plan to consider taking necessary legal action.

Considering that daily PSAR is bearish and daily MACD turned negative, while price is hugging the lower daily BB, the likely scenario is bearish.

Would it be legally possible for Kobayashi to reimburse the MtGox customers in 2 steps?
I mean, Karpeles still has a lot of depositor fiat in his possession, that he has no intention to give back.
The trustee only has 202k BTC and some fiat available, and likely won't be able to get the rest of the fiat from Karpeles anytime soon.
It may take another year or more until some of the fiat that Karpeles loaned to himself could be recovered.

Only if truncation happens. Otherwise, the crash starts next weekend. Possibly fueled by more of this:
https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/former-cto-bitcoin-exchange-okcoin-changpeng-zhao-speaks-scams-trading-bots/

Permabulls interpret the graph through a 2012 "lens", I do through a 2014 one.

If bitcoin won't be obsolete or worse by then, I expect the seller pressure to be halved soon after the block halving.
Several months after this, price should peak at 10 - 20 times the level at the moment of halving.

My bearish scenario points to about 70$ in February 2016, so by 1st April the price should have recovered somewhat.
How much recovered, I can't predict, so out of my ass I'll say 115$ on the 1st April 2016.

Blockchain Android app sucks:
http://arstechnica.com/security/2015/05/crypto-flaws-in-blockchain-android-app-sent-bitcoins-to-the-wrong-address/

Bulls negotiating their surrender, this takes some time.

When a model results in such a large difference with respect to reality, it's time to abandon the model.
Some may prefer to abandon reality though...

I believe in a bullish scenario we are in a similar position with the days preceding the mid November 2011 correction to 2$.
Of course, I am 100% fiat and looking for a good shorting entry.

A big crash (big both by volume and amplitude) would be bullish IMO. But that's not what I'm hoping for,
because it could mean we already saw THE bottom. I hope we'll go a bit up and sideways, until bulls lose patience,
then start crashing, first slowly then faster as panic spreads, culminating in a beautiful long squeeze.

It's just a matter of time. The first objective is Mariupol, then completion of a land bridge to Crimea.
Eventually, they plan to take Odessa, but the logistics would be a problem.
I doubt this can be achieved without massive involvement of Russian regular troops.

This is how markets work, everybody is after his personal gain. At least I'm honest, I don't ask bulls to buy while promising moon, on the contrary...

Come on, bulls, you can do it! A little pump is all I ask, so I can place my short tomorrow.

It wouldn't be a joke if it would be possible to short it.

This dump triggered a bearish flip of 12h and 1d PSAR, IMO similar to the flip of the 16th July 2014.