Intriguing discussion on twitter today: JUST IN: ARK has amended their 19b-4 for spot bitcoin ETF to include a surveillance sharing agreement bt CBOE and a crypto exchange (likely Coinbase), which makes their's like BlackRock's filing now, and puts them in pole position to be approved first bc they filed first. Eric Balchunas @EricBalchunas This adds another twist to the plot bc SEC decision due on this in August, if they delay it is bad sign for approval unless, they delay and then approve BlackRock, which shows favoritism. Grayscale decision announcement also plays into timing of all this. GRAB THE POPCORN. Eric Balchunas @EricBalchunas Nate also brings up another twist: would BlackRock (who doesn't play) even allow Coinbase to enter into a SSE agreement with another that would help another issuer beat them to market? If so ARK would need another crypto exchange to use. Nate Geraci @NateGeraci Have to assume BlackRock was already well aware of ARK's filing... They're not rolling out the red carpet for another issuer. Guessing Coinbase enters into SSA w/ Nasdaq first (and maybe only - at least initially). Nate Geraci @NateGeraci The trick is they have to get the spot exchange to actually enter into a surveillance sharing agreement... Potentially the same exchange that BlackRock already has a partnership with. Eric Balchunas @EricBalchunas Yeah I assumed no issue entering with both but you make a good point, blackrock could use their leverage to force Coinbase to use only them ? https://twitter.com/EricBalchunas/status/1674055780058771463 |
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Can someone explain to me why the ETF fanbois think that fourth time's the charm for a Bitcoin ETF? What exactly will the difference be this time?
The question of the benefit of ETFs has been discussed a lot and we can hardly say anything new. But if I have to summarize, the discussion is divided into 2: negative, often overflowing into pure FUD, and positive, often overflowing into unrealistic expectations of matching and even surpassing gold within a few months. To me, the truth is that the benefit of establishing Bitcoin as a stable global financial asset requires spot ETFs. The rise in price will be just the consequence of both FOMO and the scarcity. Let's take just one example, with which I think all of us will agree. People and companies who cannot or do not know how to buy bitcoins, or which exchanges are reliable, will not hesitate to use ETFs. When this ETF is bought for the long term, which is usually done with a spot rather than a futures ETF, the number of real hodlers will increase. The fear that the big companies will have more control over Bitcoin is also understandable, but we can't take at face value the pure FUD that it will kill growth like it did with gold. For enlightened OGs like us, the reasons are clear and need no pointing out. The other question, for me at least, is more interesting and with an unclear answer. Will this next wave of ETFs be stifled by Gary as it was in the past? Basically, there isn't that much of a difference between the previous ETF offerings and Blackrock's, so its approval is far from certain. Although the ratio I think was 575:1, it doesn't really matter that much, in my opinion. From the point of view of using a regulated exchange, there is no change, so there should be no approval. But... With good will from Gary, Blackrock can be given a chance as they have filed for some form of surveillance with Nasdaq. The problem is that this is only a proposal, not an actual agreement. It is not clear if Coinbase will agree and they will enter into one. If that happens this year, given other factors like pressure from senators and presidential candidates, I think Gary will bend and give permission. But everything is in the balance. Blackrock definitely rushed with the clear goal of catching the upcoming bull run after the halving. They also have an extremely strong lobby, so according to some analysts, in order to move forward so sharply, they have some kind of prior approval from Gary. But overall, if one has to estimate the chances, I think the chances of approval are no higher than 40%. However, if a surveillance agreement is announced meanwhile, that probability will become at least 80%. Hence all this buzz and the corresponding wave of ETF offerings, as well as the significant drop in GBTC's negative premium. |
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Turkish lira vs USD is down 81% since Jan 2019 and 5% since yesterday. Bitcoin solves this, unless you are mindrust  |
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Blackrock’s (BLK) iShares Bitcoin Trust application to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) this week might stand a better chance than previous attempts by other fund managers thanks to the promise of a “surveillance-sharing agreement” between exchanges. On page 36 of the Nasdaq (where the proposed ETF will be listed) 19b-4 filing, it's stated that to mitigate against market manipulation, Nasdaq will be brought in to enter into a surveillance-sharing agreement with an operator of a spot trading platform for Bitcoin (BTC). https://www.coindesk.com/business/2023/06/16/blackrock-may-have-found-way-to-get-sec-approval-for-spot-bitcoin-etf/------- “If the Blackrock ETF does get approved, the real winner here is going to be $GBTC,” Adam Cochran, a partner at venture capital firm Cinneamhain Ventures, wrote in part of Twitter commentary at the weekend. “Because Blackrock will show the path to conversion, and GBTC’s 40%+ discount will resolve on top of industry growth.” Cochran said that he thought BlackRock’s offering has “good odds” of getting U.S. regulatory approval. “Very different structure than other efforts by a behemoth who doesn’t lose. ‘30 act redeemable trust w/ redemptions (unlike GBTC) + proposed rule change filing. They came to play,” he added. https://cointelegraph.com/news/grayscale-bitcoin-trust-2023-high-blackrock-etf-filing-buyers---- P.S. It is intriguing also what will be the outcome of Greyscale vs SEC case. There are some unconfirmed rumours that Fidelity is also preparing a spot ETF acquiring Greyscale trust. All this looks pretty promising for better times. Who knows, perhaps this is the last chance to buy Bitcoin at these low prices?!? |
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Tweeter seems to be very positive on the chances of an ETF approval. However, Pomp (known for fake news and shitcoin shilling) tried to mislead that this is not an ETF but a redeamable trust comparing it to $GBTC. Here is the reply: To all those saying the BlackRock filing is a trust and not an ETF. Do you consider $GLD to be an ETF? Well, this is same thing. Lot of structures under “ETF” umbrella. Nothing like $GBTC. This is the real deal.  https://twitter.com/EricBalchunas/status/1669495679004147714--------- $GLD is also a trust. But since it stores the gold physically and allows for daily creations and redemptions (which allows arbitrage) it's basically an ETF. That's how to think about this vs GBTC which is a private trust who limited shares trade OTC. Night and day dif. https://twitter.com/EricBalchunas/status/1669484124208242689-------- P.S. IMO, the trust has a greater chance for an approval compared to an ETF, since it solves many of the SEC "concerns" about the lack of customer protection, regulations of the Bitcoin exchanges, etc. |
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Filling one is a start
Getting approved is another thing
How likely would it be…. ?
I have some doubts right now that Gary is waging war not only against shitcoins but also against Bitcoin, albeit stealthily. Certainly, as a representative of the government, he hates Bitcoin, which threatens the status of the dollar as the world's reserve currency, as well as bank deposits. He is certainly supported by most bankers, congressmen, feds, etc. It is not about the so-called regulations he is so concerned about. These regulations are nothing, dust in the eyes of the people. They just boil down to signing documents when buying an asset that you are aware of the risks. So it is unlikely to allow spot ETFs in principle. But if Gary gets fired or if a pro-Bitcoin president comes in, things will change very quickly. There's another scenario when the ETF is approved even if those things don't happen. Since Grayscale is suing SEC because the same article allows ETFs for futures but not for spot, it is very likely that this case will be won. Even if the court does not oblige the SEC to recognize the ETF, then in the next application, they will not have a legal reason to refuse, especially if it is a futures with a spot element, such as bakkt. And there is always the factor that Blackrock is not just another small company, but the largest asset company in the world! Who wants to make it his enemy?! And to hint that they are incapable of handling the ETF?! |
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What definitely catches the eye is the following text : It wasn't clear if the ETF will be spot or futures. BlackRock did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
To date, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which oversees ETFs in the U.S., has rejected every application for a spot bitcoin ETF, though it has approved several bitcoin futures ETFs for trading. In other words, if it's another futures ETF, I don't see it making any significant difference considering all those who already do business in the U.S. Besides, the SEC is on the war foot and somehow it doesn't seem to me that they would approve the first spot ETF BTC, although maybe it's a matter of timing considering that the deadline in which the SEC gives its finally thought is even 240 days from filling. Note that "BlackRock will be using Coinbase (COIN) Custody". This means that the ETF (futures like Bakkt, or spot ETF) will be with the purchases of real coins. |
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In case someone still has any doubts why there is a sell pressure after the bank collapse, here it is the proof (FTX cancer is still living): ------------- Unusual price action on Binance. Loads of selling pressure on bitcoin not present on other exchanges. More cannon fodder that they may be selling spot BTC to prop up BNB. The $220 level is being staunchly defended — may be a liquidation level for a BNB-collateralized loan. ----- Binance and CZ have been selling spot Bitcoin at an alarming rate, to defend the $BNB $220 liquidation waterfall As spot Bitcoin is sold off, BNB is purchased, which defends the $220 liquidation but also caps the upside potential of Bitcoin It is a total house of cards ----------  https://twitter.com/JoeConsorti/status/1668723869794926595-------------------- Can confirm this is true, Looks like BTC is being sold off for USDT reserves USDT reserves are being pumped into BNB aggressively since 27th May BNB is being sold off for BUSD to suppress volatility in BTC BUSD is pumped into BTC to suppress downside volatility so BTC can be swapped out for USDT This is technically market manipulation, Binance is definitely up to something here to prevent BNB from crashing as well BTC.  https://twitter.com/52kskew/status/1668726427703996418 |
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All kidding aside, but I think yesterday's market reaction to the bad news of a kinda ban on the two largest exchanges in US was extremely surprising. Especially when you consider that there is an order to freeze the finances of binance in the states, and it is the exchange that actually dictates the price movements. There are always a lot of risky players in that exchange, whose long and short positions have a significant impact on the spot market. I personally expected a big long liquidation, as we saw a lot in 2022. Instead, the market bounced back, and not with some minute or hourly bounce, but a stable 5% for 24 hours. Totally illogical, and I'm sure the most surprised is Gary, who I have no doubt now is financially involved in various shitcoins he's clearing the way for. However, the question is different. If, after bouncing off the 15K bottom, the market has apparently found a new 25K bottom, then this is a very significant signal for the continuation of the bull run this year. Only a very severe global tragedy or a targeted bitcoin ban in the States could delay this by a few months at worst. Honey badger can't be stopped!
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Feds, bankers and SEC trying everything to stop the Bitcoin bull market. First they hammered the banks that operated with the exchanges. Then the feds started selling in portions their bitcoins with the sole purpose of creating FUD and artificial sell pressure on the markets. Finally they hammered the two biggest exchanges. Bitcoin CEO, however, had other plans   |
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Damn it. Something's happening in WO... Too quiet. No heated debates, no rusty pipes, no Batslaps, no Dude's resto/pissing pics, no proudhon posts, r0ach probably died or abandoned us, nullius fell in love with a Greek goddess and won't post anymore, Elwar's seastead sunk and he abandoned ship... Hell, not even a post about Bob's ranch or Jimbo's lake projects. Have we really stooped so low?
Price drives everything it seems... Come on, Bitcoin, do something (like a mega-pump to ATH+)... We need some Carolinas and Choo-Choos to get things going!
Jimbo's probably enjoying his lake and barbecuing up some steaks since we had some record high temps last week - one day we broke a 75 year-old record. ... Still working on the reverse mortgage to keep making capital gains tax payments without selling any much more Bitcoin. Trying to keep as much of my stash together until we achieve some new ATHs in a couple of years. ... Despite the differences in the size of the stash and the timing of the first investment, I am currently facing a similar dilemma. I found a job in a very prestigious institution in a big city with good living conditions, but I don't have a home. I can use free accommodation, but I have to travel a long way by car often, and the roads are very bad. I had to make repairs to the car that made the whole thing pointless. At the same time, for a normal house I would have to spend a large part of my bitcoins at this price, which is unacceptable. As a compromise, I can take out a mortgage loan, but I still have to sell at least 20% of my bitcoins. It won't make me happy, but I will be more unhappy if I sell more bitcoins. I can cover the loan payments with my salary, in the worst case I will sell very small portion in the next 2 years. After that, I hope when bitcoin reaches >100K, I can pay off all the remaining installments at once and bring the interest down to almost 0%. Anyway, I intend to wait at least for 40-50K prices so I can sell only 10% and that is if I'm compelled by other circumstances like my health or my father's health. Although I started investing in 2017 and as a result I can't afford to quit working, it is good that thanks to bitcoin I can still change my life for the better. |
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Why would you do that us   Because $ is better in every aspect. Anything Bljatcoin offers is speculative and actualy does not exist. The Value is inflated and its use is non existant. Also the greatest Scientific brains are having FIAT Paychecks because they aint no gambling addicts.. A.I is the end of this Bljatcoin charade its happening at tachyon speed , its foreseen.  Then why he begged for bitcoins instead of fiat?!? This is a typical trader inconcistency. They try to use bitcoin as a tool for a short term profit and when they got liquidated, start whining and blabber nonsence. The lack of brain and knowledge about bitcoin always ends in tears. |
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Recently U.S. Senator John Kennedy said on national TV: Banks are "really just sophisticated ponzi schemes." And what is the end of a ponzi then? A total collapse. Once the trust is gone nobody can do anything. Feds may hike interest rates and continue to print "money" indefinetely. But they know that this solves the trust and inflation issues as much as a spoon can scoop the ocean. So, the bankers and the feds are simply desperate. The plan to sell the bitcoins held by the feds is a clear indicator of their desperation. May be Jerome Powell said to himself: "I know printing trillions of usd is a bad thing, but may be several millions from the sell of Bitcoins will solve the crisis and stop the investors from withdrawing from the banks and buying Bitcoins." We are going to need more popcorn seeing banks falling like domino. People who don't understand this will keep their money in the bank, or sell Bitcoins, or hesitate to buy Bitcoins. In the end they will see their mistake but it will be too late. Edit. 722 banks reported unrealised losses exceeding 50% of their capital - US FED https://www.federalreserve.gov/supervisionreg/files/board-briefing-on-impact-of-rising-interest-rates-and-supervisory-approach-20230214.pdf |
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PacWest, Western Alliance crash as regional bank fears continue to shake markets Their drops of more than 20% in morning trading come one day after JPMorgan Chase (JPM) purchased the bulk of First Republic (FRC), in a deal that was designed to restore stability to the banking system after two months of turmoil. Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pacwest-western-alliance-crash-as-regional-bank-fears-continue-to-shake-markets-151815103.htmlBtw, this is after Jamie Dimon said yesterday that 'this part of the crisis is over'. Yeap, right #coughclowncough. I think the bank crisis has just began. No matter how hard bankers try to cover it up, it is developing really fast. I'm so glad that all these fat bankers who dissed Bitcoin as an asset that will ultimately go to 0 now are seeing their own stonks going to 0. This is karma, bitches!  Next time when you try to sabotage "crypto" banks, think twice! |
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Finally covid caught me. Along with me and my dad, who had to be hospitalized because of the severe cough, but without any other complications. We both have 2 vaccines and that definitely contributed to the relatively mild passing of the disease. Unfortunately, dad's other problems, which are cardiac and neurological, cannot be solved in our city. I hope that soon Bitcoin will increase more so I can buy a house in the city, where I already work and where there are good clinics. But at this stage I can't part with a large chunk of my stash for such a super low price.
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