Guys I think I never knew what "variance" really was before looking at the swings in my profit on just-dice in these days :-D
You can also get a good idea by looking at a short timeframe network hashrate graph. |
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NO. Nakowa is not doing max profit bets, so 1/4 or 1/2 Kelly is irrelevant, he could do bets of the same size at 1/4.
Max profit = 188 btc. His bets = 171.7986... (max) It is still close. Right now yes, because the roll is shrinking. But for many hours his biggest bet has been 132 BTC and max profit was +230 BTC. So now would be a wise time to invest?
The dice is RANDOM. There's no better or worse time to invest/divest. NO. Nakowa is not doing max profit bets, so 1/4 or 1/2 Kelly is irrelevant, he could do bets of the same size at 1/4.
Nope still doing 170 with 188 max bet. The chances of him cheating is increasing by the minute. Stay open minded and objective, and hopefully you be one of the first to realize what is going on here. Good luck!  There's absolutely NOTHING that indicates he is cheating. The wild swings he is experiencing looks 100% legit. Look at how he plays, its just a completely random walk. |
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-5 k  I wonder, how much has the best suppliers on just-dice.com? How much did he lose today?  I can tell you that today I've been up 10% on my investment, and right now down aprox. 15%. |
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I can't believe I'm about to say this....
We recovered 5000 at 0.25%, and as soon as doog puts it back to 0.50% we're down to -4000 again.
Hindsight saying 1/4 kelly is the only way ... is it possible?
NO. Nakowa is not doing max profit bets, so 1/4 or 1/2 Kelly is irrelevant, he could do bets of the same size at 1/4. |
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And Nakowa took us to -5K What a RIDE  |
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2 different IDs are playing, not sure if it is the same guy:
FFs Ownz (105829)
berathea (161188)
Berathea is Nakowa FFs Ownz is another guy who also got lucky and won 1,000BTC, but he is burning 'em. |
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And -4K
Nakowa on a winning strike
He started playing at -1K, lost big till we went to +4K, now took us down to -4K
What a show.
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While nakowa has, perhaps a bankroll the same size as the casino.
I heard in chat that Nakowa once claimed his bankroll was six figures. 100,000 bitcoin. At least. He can sustain himself for a long long time. Holy bitcoin. 12+ million bucks. I'll bet he has a ton more in fiat, too, unless he was just an early adopter who managed to mine a load of Bitcoin. But damn, that's a lot... Please link or its just BS. From what we know Nakowa has max 24k BTC. |
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Poker is an EV- game (cause of fees/rakes), but still some players are playing every day and winning more money each month than any engineer in the world.
First, fees/rakes do not apply in many poker games. Secondly, poker IS NOT a -EV game by default, it depends on the skills of your opponents. A dice game with x% house edge is ALWAYS -EV for the player and +EV for the house, full stop. |
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You're crazy if you truly think that.
Why? It might be true that he has maths background If he understood math he would know he is playing a -EV game. He got lucky, but he will wipe out his luck by keeping tl gamble. Excuse for newbie intrusion but what is -EV game? The expected value is negative. If he plays long enough, its 100% guaranteed he will lose unless he is cheating or the site flawed. The only way for him to succeed is to get lucky and stop while ahead. "stop" means not playing again, EVER. Casinos are wildly profitable because those willing to gamble their hard earned money cannot stop most of the times. |
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You're crazy if you truly think that.
Why? It might be true that he has maths background If he understood math he would know he is playing a -EV game. He got lucky, but he will wipe out his luck by keeping tl gamble. |
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Nakowa is currently on a winning streak.
Nice show, definitely positive exposure for the Casino.
Not anymore. House profit up to 1400, but wildly swinging up and down. Glad to see we didn't chase our very own Moby Dick away (wait... that analogy isn't exactly what we want.) Nice analogy Nakowa changed his "strategy", biggest bet today is 132BTC, which mean that regardless of half or full Kelly he is going nowhere near max profit. This is leading him to make more bets, which is obviously better for the house. |
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Nakowa is currently on a winning streak.
Nice show, definitely positive exposure for the Casino.
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I divested anyway That's retarded, you are not supposed to if you want to maximize profits. |
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Yep, Nakowa just lost and reloaded 1,790BTC. A degenerate gambler is a degenerate gambler. That's why casinos exist |
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Plenty of Americans are nice people. It's their government that's gone rogue.
The vast majority of people living in the world is nice, regardless of where they were born. The most dangerous ones are those that are proud of random things they were born with (their race, their gender, their citizenship, etc.) |
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Also, that's nothing. At Just-Dice.com we had a guy turn 0.5 BTC into 152.2 BTC in 2 minutes last night; that's 30440%! 2013-09-26 08:53:33 start with 0.5 BTC
2013-09-26 08:53:56 bet #139926757: 0.1 BTC @ 1% lo: lucky: 160348 profit: -0.10 balance: 0.40
2013-09-26 08:54:17 bet #139927033: 0.04 BTC @ 0.05% lo: lucky: 918419 profit: -0.04 balance: 0.36
2013-09-26 08:54:20 bet #139927069: 0.04 BTC @ 0.05% lo: lucky: 295314 profit: -0.04 balance: 0.32
2013-09-26 08:54:25 bet #139927135: 0.04 BTC @ 0.05% lo: lucky: 902189 profit: -0.04 balance: 0.28
2013-09-26 08:54:28 bet #139927183: 0.04 BTC @ 0.05% lo: lucky: 296 profit: 79.16 balance: 79.44
2013-09-26 08:54:36 bet #139927279: 0.04 BTC @ 0.05% lo: lucky: 8545 profit: -0.04 balance: 79.40
2013-09-26 08:55:09 bet #139927688: 1.6 BTC @ 2% lo: lucky: 153400 profit: -1.60 balance: 77.80
2013-09-26 08:55:14 bet #139927751: 1.6 BTC @ 2% lo: lucky: 525939 profit: -1.60 balance: 76.20
2013-09-26 08:55:35 bet #139927852: 1.6 BTC @ 2% lo: lucky: 696384 profit: -1.60 balance: 74.60
2013-09-26 08:55:44 bet #139927976: 1.6 BTC @ 2% lo: lucky: 11884 profit: 77.60 balance:152.20
2013-09-26 08:55:59 finish with 152.2 BTC stop spamming how did he do it? I posted a log showing the 10 bets he made. That's how he did it. The two significant bets are the 5th and 10th, where he bets 0.04 BTC at 0.05% chance of winning and wins 79.16 BTC and 1.6 BTC at 2% chance of winning and wins 77.6 BTC. I highlighted them in the log this time for you. Yep. I did not run to calculations, but I'd dare to say that what this guy did is even more unlikely than Nakowa's winning strike. I'm amazed by people saying Nakowa must be a cheater, what he did is not impossible by any means, its just unlikely, but very much possible. |
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Funny how citizenship is sold for money (avoidance of taxes). I always thought it is something you should be proud of
I always thought only retards are proud about where they were born/where they live. |
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