I guess it would be both a success and a failure on the government's side. While this can clearly not be imposed for everyone, it would make it a pain in the arse to use cryptocurrencies in the USA which would certainly slow down the adoption and crash the price for a while. But I care more about the adoption and potential highly negative effects this would have over BTC than the price crashing.
It may be hard to impose it for all USA citizens using Bitcoin, but would you risk getting caught? Who would?
Again, from what I can tell from the dubious and vague Bitcoin/Cryptocurrency regulations that have been proposed, is that it ONLY will be 'at least only', 'enforceable in the United States and on Bitcoin/Crypto going in and out of USA based Know Your Customer (KYC) exchanges. NOT, to my buddy and me exchanging Bitcoin/Crypto vs 2 private, say paperwallet transactions. (Although, from the amounts going overseas...that may not a apply simply because you are going outside the USA, I'm more than unclear on that part of the 'side-action' of BTC/Crypto transactions outside the USA and overseas) The whole think 'hopefully' is such a muddled, rushed out, with no consultation from anybody and no real public comment process..not to mention that the courts really, really, hate vague stuff..as seen in this rushed out BTC/Crypto regulations proposal...it all will come to nothing. EXCEPT, I can see the Biden Administration either leaving in or adding to a reformed version of these proposed regulations that all BTC/Crypto in and out of a USA exchange, in addition to the current KYC stuff, has to go to an address you specify...in other words, I make a new paper wallet and tell say Coinbase that this is MINE and Coinbase, with my current KYC ONLY pays out Bitcoin/Crypto to such an 'owned' wallet that I swear is my own. That way the government has an easier way to control KYC to the masses. I also suspect if it is more than $10k you have to do the usual (auto on Coinbase site say) click a box or complete a form that this is NOT for illicit purposes. The reason I think this is that it would limit all KYC stuff on USA exchanges to 1 address going out..so if they did go after somebody they would have this ONE starting place and 'confirmed' only to be used address to track blockchain from. I guess I could live with such, but I really, really, think this is likely the only way in/out centralized way of BTC/Crypto to fiat or USD any government can control. I just hope they don't exchange the same logic to regular bank accounts and you have to 'pin' any BTC/Crypto address as a run through with them as well. I suppose that will be the next step. Brad |
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This truth really struck home as I read this piece by Dr. Steven Englander, a big thinker and expert in currencies and macro-investing who has worked in the Fed, Citi, Lehman Bros., the OECD, etc. At the center of his conclusion that Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies have no real value proposition is that the top Western currencies have no store-of-value problem. True, the US is not Zimbabwe, or Venezuela, but is a bright person like himself not aware that a dollar or pound is worth a small fraction of itself decades to a century ago? Somone else could be forgiven for the oversight, but surely someone of the stature of Dr. Englander should know better. At least when he writes a long and thoughtful piece like this. Which brings me to, really, my pet peeve. We all talk about the technical features of this money or that. Electronic vs. physical. Inflationary or deflationary. Even transactional speed and cost. But truly, the only things that really matter are political. (That is, after a money satisfies the basic requirements, which is not a problem here.) And I'm not even talking about how money affects the distribution of benefits to different political constituents, whether it benefits debtors vs. creditors, etc., etc. That is a good topic for another time. I'm talking about something deeper. Money is political in the truest, most precise, and widest sense of the word. And the political dividing line is not between left and right, but between the top politicians and bankers, and everyone else. Money determines how much goes to the elites and their allies, and how much goes to everyone else. In the service of the political goal of maximizing benefits for the former, all things tend to get distorted. Not only is the economy twisted into producing too many luxuries for the beneficiaries by providing unstable employment to the rest (because, after all, luxuries are bought, or not, at the whims of the lucky.) All the mainstream commentary we hear, somehow, only reflects what the elites want us to think. According to what we now have to call mouth-pieces of the elites, somehow, people always chase bubbles, and always get hurt, because they're irrational, and there's nothing anyone can do about it. Central-bank money creation is *never* a driving factor. No, never. We're living in a lie, and the earlier we wake up to it, the better. What officials and mainstream media and academics tell us must sometimes be dismissed with: it's just politics. To your point above, you don't take it far enough. Like your title: Re: Money Is Political, Not Technical. The real catch is not how you frame the question, to me, it is more, money the 'mechanism' is not politics, it is power! In other words, money is a means to an end to gain power. By power I mean, having food, not hungry, cold, and you can expand by that point into money for houses/cars/girls or whatever...it is not politics as an endpoint it is, however, you can get power as an endpoint that gives you more and more of control of the pesky environment and universe that keeps trying to kill your ass. You don't eat you die, you have bad health and now medical you die, etc. So, this is where 'politics' does come in...the tool to 'help' decentralize power and improve the status quo or to 'squash' centralize and keep the status quo. You have a vested interest in the 'status quo' of wealth..you have wealth, maybe inherited wealth, you protect that wealth with connections to politics as a means to protect the status quo....and keep your wealth, with cap gains taxes (lower for rich) tax rebates (like the 1.2 Trillion tax holiday under Trump Administration) Then 'decentralized' BTC/Crypto comes around and messes up your centralized setup above...all nice and cozy..so you then use politics as a 'lever' or blunt baseball bat to make regulations and try to control it. Does not really work very well, being decentralized, worldwide and BTC/Crypto has real uses overseas with dubious governments/backs/fraud/etc. So again, the politics is to 'stifle' anything decentralized in the world vs centralized and controlled in the game of power. Labor Unions for example in the USA are decentralized...so politics and laws used to 'stifle'. This last presidential election attempts to stymie that pesky decentralized election, etc. This it will always be so...so IMHO your title did not go all the way to the end of the tree root of control. Re: Money Is Political, Not Technical It should be maybe, again I know zip, IMHO Re: Money is Power, Politics is Technical, Decentralized BTC/Crypto is a status quo nightmare! but again, perhaps all this is 'implied' ..just saying Brad |
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Tell us what you think. I think this book is an outrageous act. Someone taking all Satoshi's words and selling them for money, without his consent. No good deed goes unpunished, right? So Satoshi creates Bitcoin, offers it for free to the people, to help them escape from governs' surveillance. To help them take the power from the elites back to their hands. To help them be free. What people do? They invent centralised exchanges from their greed and try to get rich instead of free, helping the govern to centralize somethibg which was born decentralized. What they do next? They take even Satoshi's words, place them in a book and sell it for money. That's a shame! I hope nobody will buy this book! Yeah, but on the other hand, they are in the 'public' record...it is not like when they do an autobiorgraphy of say Washington, the first US President and his 'private' letters, and others talking about Satoshi like a public known figure like Washington. The author could have easily made the book a much bigger seller by simply adding Hal Finney and others public postings and all that or do a tell all of the 'drama' of and speculate on fights or something in the public forums. Can you imagine what a person could do with my posts and someone else's heated argurements on Bitcointalk here? All out of context. So anyway, you don't know who Satoshi is, you have these public postings and information, you are simply posting those, so sure he is making $$ on this but, i mean big whoop, it is more a 'technical guide' and listing of all the public papers and postings of Steven Hawking say, no one would have any problem with that, on his theories and his comments on such, hell likely there will be such a book of such. So it is a 'niche' book, I doubt he will make any reall $$$ on such and if Satoshi is 'dead' of which I'm 99% sure of, it would have been too simple to simply move a btc from 1 satoshi wallet to another to cut the fraud Craig Wright off at the knees....Satoshi only has his public postings and such to plead his case. So yeah, its fine, IMHO. Brad |
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it is like saying that whoever owns cash must report the exact amount, where they keep it (in which pocket) and where they spend it. they can force it all they want but it is not possible!
everything else that involves one part being centralized like using exchanges was already regulated a couple of years ago and they have all been reporting both in and out transactions from their wallets to the authorities. so there is nothing left to change.
The proposed Treasury Regulation is so 'vague' I can't figure out if it even applies to individuals. Like I send over $10k to my buddy in Iowa...via 2 blockchains....say for the purpose of mining equipment we want to split and run on say the Bitcoin blockchain. Do I have to report this because it is 2 private wallets? Or does the Treasury regulations only apply to in/out of fiat with cryptocurrency address in whatever particular currency like USD you want to get in and out for KYC? Also, even if I was supposed to do KYC for my buddy on the above, could I now say 'he has a Coinbase account so I don't have to do KYC because he already has been 'vetted' in his Coinbase account with KYC? The regulation does say know the party at the other end and KYC, right? Cluster! I suppose we should be thankful the Trump Administration did not just try to out and out ban BTC/Crypto. I mean they were discussing Martial Law for crying out loud. I suppose banning BTC/Crypto is on the agenda for the week after Xmas instead? Brad |
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There is a book out of all of Satoshi's writings. I may not have the technical skills to understand all of this book, even if I have to skim some. But should be very interesting indeed. I ordered the book above: Kicking the Hornet's Nest: The Complete Writings, Emails, and Forum Posts of Satoshi Nakamoto, the Founder of Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency Paperback. January 3, 2019, by Mill Hill Books. Again, this seems to be available ONLY in a paperback form, not electronic Kindle format. Which I find amusing!  Supposedly it has all of his writings in a paperback. Below is the Amazon link. The price is $29.25 and published on January 3rd, 2019. The book is 343 pages long. Available on Amazon. https://www.amazon.com/Kicking-Hornets-Nest-Complete-Cryptocurrency/dp/0359327443What about anyone on here? What do you think? Has anyone read the book already? For that matter any really, really old-timers on Bitcointalk here that remember reading on forums when Satoshi was posting or hell even 'conversed' in some manner with Satoshi on Bitcointalk or any other medium back in the day? Also, do you think sales will pick-up with the ATH and FOMO pump of Bitcoin Prices? Anyway, reply on the thread here. Tell us what you think. Brad |
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I do not think so if they airdrop big amounts of bitcoin then the price will be affected because those who are not intersted on investing in bitcoin will sell it imeadiatly and the price will go down.
I think it doesn't have much of an impact, because part of the total supply is already owned by the investors so that the price drops can only occur when the seller is about to sell it, but until now, seeing the position of bitcoin is still positive, I think it's too early to predict bitcoin will fall more far. Just a few thoughts. 1) I think Satoshi was Dave Klieman indeed who passed away. 2) I think that, even if not the above, Satoshi has passed away. 3) If I am wrong about (1) and (2) above, I'm confused? Because 'surely' if Satoshi was alive he would have anonymously done a private seed message on one of the known accounts proving that Craig Wright was a fraud. No fanfare, no announcement..just 1 BTC moved from one known Satoshi wallet to another known unused and for sure a Satoshi wallet, from back in the day. That is so simple and elegant and I just can't see Satoshi letting Craig Wright get up in front of folk for $$$ fees etc. Would not happen if Satoshi was alive IMHO. So now even more sure the options here (1) (2) and (3) cover all the bases and likely correct. Satoshi has 'passed away' sometime in past.  4) If all my stuff above is correct that means that ALL that Satoshi Hoard of BTC HODL addresses and such, will never be moved or sold and can be discounted in the future as they have been discounted from 2009 onward or as of now come January 2020, not an 'issue' for 12 years! Anyway, with the simple making of a seed message using private keys and/or simply moving BTC from 1 wallet to another from the Satoshi Legacy Addresses... too simple to do. And again, IMHO, if Satoshi was alive, the FAKE Satoshi Craig Wright would have already been slapped down hard as a fake. Brad |
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We're moving towards having 2 parallel Bitcoin ecosystems - one with tight regulations, where the government will always know how many coins you own and were you send them, just like with your banks, and the one were you will be only able to do p2p transactions or use unregulated services, like crypto casinos. I think this is better than the alternative of having Bitcoin banned, because compared to that, people will have an option to legally buy/sell/spend their coins, without any fear.
Point 1 But will it really be this bad? I mean say I have to show a BTC registered address...to my Crypto Exchange in the United States. Big whoop, I make a wallet address and anything in or out on coinbase will be through this new ...easy ...peasy ...empty say paper wallet. So I sell BTC that I xfered to that wallet (legal) on Coinbase...and it is more than 10K ...a form pops up on coinbase stating ..probably ...per usual..that this is MY self-hosted wallet and that is done...IF I buy from coinbase...the Know Your Customer for that direction already works. Point 2 I simply 'skip' the United States exchange on expanded KYC and simply go with KYC through say an exchange in Canada which does not have this extra step..again.. buying or selling as long as I do my cap gains and stuff for the IRS in the USA..I should be golden tax wise anyway Point 3 People can still send you money directly say to any self-hosted (say paper wallet) you own....from say overseas mining profits more than $350 or whatever... if it is a legit mining operation that allows me to be paid in crpto from overseas..it should have a business address and be legit. IF not....well then the process is un-do-able for person to person stuff overseas and it will be rapidly ignored. On the other hand ...you keep track of such anyway from your end saying i got such and such product from alibaba for a used miner and alibaba info ....as long as you report such it should be fine..if not...well ...than that means that the USA wants to stop ALL person to person private wallet overseas to your private wallet overseas to you in USA over $350 without you getting KYC from everyone well it won't stand IMHO. What is 'likely' to stand in USA and elsewhere is the over $10k recieved or sent through an exchange ..the point you convert such crypto back to cash...or exchanges once it gets to joe's coffee clutch buying a expresso machine from china and they require you know your KYC of whomever there..well then it is just unworkable. Or am I missing the boat on all this and they really, really do require or want to require ALL transactions overseas over $350 to KYC the vendor at the other end and/or the same with me sending like for gold in the USA from private paper wallet to some other guy's paper wallet of over $10k etc, etc. I can see this from the exchange point of view of in/out back forth as exists now and KYC into cash or out of cash via exchanges or banks etc. But under the system they may want above....PayPal does not 'check' everyone I can send cash to on PayPal..they only respond if i get ripped off... so this would not work under PayPal or bitpay if it as I state above..so again, UN-doable..like the 2014 IRS rule of if I made BTC for 99c as a BTC founder and bought a TV with it 8 years later for $500 I owe $499.01 in capital gains and have to keep track of each ...did not happen then....so hopefully the Biden Administration may require stuff on a USA crypto exchange to go through your registered say BTC address and you fill lout a form that says.. 'to the best of my knowledge' like for a wire xfer this is a legit bit of commerce we are doing...beyond that ...just won't work in any real manner. Again, think it will be tweaked a lot of Republican Legislators in the USA already sent a couple letters to the regulators proposing such controls on all self-hosted wallets as stupid and undo-able..also so frigging fuzzy and vague high likelihood a court would toss such without modification. Then again, am I missing something really obvious they can get a regular person using USA exchanges or sending BTC or getting BTC out and about from around the world either in sending/buying or mining such etc? Maybe I'm just naive and they can simply put all the legalities on the individual with the wallet and make the whole process grind to a halt for crypto in the USA. Please comment. But the above is 1) exchange as stated on above likely to say 2) overseas being harder than just a wire xfer info likely not. Brad |
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FinCEN Proposes KYC For Withdrawing Cryptocurrency To Private Wallets by Peter Chawaga December 18, 2020 https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/fincen-proposes-kyc-for-withdrawing-cryptocurrency-to-private-walletsWell, the proposal with less than 30 days' notice has been tossed out there. From what I can tell it only applies to in/out of USA exchanges? Please clarify and correct me if I am wrong, please. This whole 'regulation' speak I'm not good at, in any way shape, or form! some outtakes from the above article quote: The proposed rule would, in effect, require bitcoin exchanges to collect, store and share personal information from users who transfer their bitcoin private keys from those exchanges to their own private wallets, as well as transaction information. The public has until January 4, 2021 to provide written comments to this rule... unquote So, IF, I have this correctly. IF I want to say take USD in and out of www.coinbase.com as an example. The 'buying' and 'sellling' of Bitcoin/Crypto on this site consists of Know Your Customer (KYC) of an ID (like driver's license front and back) and same driver's license or passport with photo ID held up to the head of the individual who owns such, for KYC. Again, as it exists now. So from what I can tell from the above, you'd simply have to have a Crypto Address, say BTC/Crypto whatever (I guess you could just make a new BTC address say) and thus that is on file as your 'proper' address for in/out on Coinbase. I suppose the in/out to addresses I send stuff out on Coinbase now are on the site anyway, so this would simply 'provide' a 'home' address of some type, at minimum, to attach to your KYC. But hell, I'd just make a 'quote' Coinbase Bitcoin address (new) for this. I'd only tell them a 2ndary Bitcoin address if/when I wanted to cash out say a 'paper wallet' or something. As an aside, I would suppose that I could no longer send from Coinbase directly to an 'unknown' not verified address listed on Coinbase with KYC? Anyway, what it looks like so far. Check the article above. Am I missing some 'grand evil tweak' that is gonna bite me in the ass worse than the above? Or is what I say above the 'gist' of it? I could probably do such easy enough if what I say only applies to USA Crypto Exchanges...like Coinbase and KYC in that I only buy from such to HODL more BTC/Crypto dust. Again, also, should the time come I really want to move some BTC/Crypto from say a 'real' private wallet (paper wallet) say...I'd assume you could add a said wallet to your KYC setup above and do so. The whole thing makes me feel a bit 'itchy' and seems 'sketchy' but could what I have above be all there is to it? Limited to USA Crypto Exchanges only? Am I missing stuff or being naive on all this? Anyway, others smarter than me on this chime in on this thread and let me know if I missed something truly evil on all this besides the 'annoyance' I see with KYC above. Feel free to take the poll..but again, chime in, with whatever 'twists' or such this could open up in the future or stuff I'm missing on the downside. Brad |
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That price is too much for me, if it's really possible to happen we should see the price jn $50k by the end of this year then that 300k$ in December 2021 is possible to happen. As long as I don't see it , I will never believe in this prediction , well if that's really happen it's still good news for us that holding Bitcoin until now. I'm utterly befuddled on such a price of $318.00 USD by the end of 2021 as being possible as the next guy. But I've been often befuddled in the seven years I've been on here and into Bitcoin/Crypto. 0ct 18th, 2013 I made 1 Bitcoin a day, and at least some time that day, when I looked Bitcoin, was an impossible $150.00, wow! I found a note, posted inside a cabinet I rarely open, it has a mess of old retro Apple II Computer Manuals and such from way back. I saw it again, inside the cabinet door, and I had made a tally of my HOLD Hoard at the time. So according to the note of July 26th, 2015 the price of Bitcoin was $289.25 USD and the price of Litecoin was $4.45 USD. Color me at the present moment where we hit an all-time-high (ATH) according to www.coinmarketcap.com of $23,629.67 USD and a Litecoin price of $110.00 USD. So hell, what do I know? I don't 'think' such a price is possible, but if every billionaire on the planet wants Bitcoin as a long-term inflation hedge? Or instead of using gold or bonds for this purpose? I've no idea, but I guess It is not as far out of the realm of possibility of these kinds of prices compared to the price of Bitcoin on 1/1/2020 this year of $7,141.18 USD. Hell, we could also have, the usual 30-35% correction and slap the price down to like $12K again. Which still would beat the stock market in spades. Again, no clue, but if you have Bitcoin/Crypto it sure is a fun game to watch! Bitcoin: Always The Drama Queen! (tm Bitcoin) Brad |
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Market trends likely boost Litecoin even more further so is there any have chance to make entries for short? Whether it happens or not, market is pretty green and that’s a very good thing.
So what is going on with the uptick in the price? I mean after years is Litecoin finally yet again acting like Silver to Bitcoin's gold? Looking at www.coinmarketcap.com of as I type this (see the msg time stamp on this post) of $107.88 and Litecoin up a frigging 44.23% in the last week compared to Bitcoin being up in comparison only 26.05%, again, as I type this here. Holy Moly..what is going on? it seems to me like something is going on. They have been talking about Mimblewimble for months, and indeed if the USA implements the need for self-hosting wallets at a minimum declaring themselves with Know Your Customer (KYC) ..even if it is just for xfer of BTC/Crypto into USD from within a USA exchange, as an added KYC...that can't be helping the Litecoin price IMHO much under such a likelihood. Is it that Bitcoin has finally gotten to spendy and newbies and past HODL'ers of Litecoin have come back into the fold? Maybe? Add to the above PayPal as an option, a newbie could say, man, I could get a lot of Litecoin actual vs the BTC dust for the same USD..and going that way? I like it, I don't understand it, because as usual, I can't find out any noise on why Litecoin has been pumping. So for now going with the PayPal angle and known old and new word of mouth of Litecoin acting like the Silver to Gold analogy..at least presently. But I like to hear 'something' in the way of 'something' gossip wise when a cryptocurrency just takes off..not seeing it here. So good to see, but anyone got anything? I'm utterly befuddled...the above stuff I mention just does not seem to cut it on the massive price rise. Brad |
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This is the perfect thread to post a comment on this. But did you know that in the last 24 hours, the amount of BTC addresses holding over $1 million dollars has doubled? Interesting isn't it? Does it mean that rich people are buying BTC over $20K and storing it on their wallets? No.
The reason why the amount of BTC addresses holding over $1 million has doubled is because all those original 50 BTC mined coins AND lost keys is finally valued over $1M. Its crazy how back then you could mine a block with a laptop and to be worth over $1M a little over a decade later. Too bad time machines don't exist.
Taking this further, according to Coinmarketcap www.coinmarketcap.com the All-Time-High (ATH) was $23,586.21 USD! So using the mechanism of this thread below: Today's Date: 12/18/2020 From the current price from www.coinmarketcap.com. Today's Time: See Forum Time On This Post! Current Price: $23,586.21 USD. (again, if going by ATH idea) Total BTC Needed: 42.40 BTC! So that, with current All-Time-High (ATH) is the 'amount of' Bitcoin to beat, in our little game on this thread. Also, looking at the above and 'doubling' the price, in my dreams, er..someday... that would mean at $47,172.42 USD. and you'd only need 21.20 BTC to have $1,000,000 USD! Sheesh! I just gave myself a little BTC 'woody' just now! I will go 'out in a limb' and say that we won't hit the above $47,172.42 USD until 2021...but as I've been dead wrong all year about BTC and such who knows. I still think we are gonna have pushback in regulations and other actions by the 'powers that be' of wealth and centralized money and power. So I suspect the usual, eventual, 30-35% Bitcoin Price pullback. But at what price the All-Time-High (ATH) that this happens at I'm frigging clueless. If it happened at the above ATH price again and at a worse case, IMHO, 35% drop the price of BTC would be $11,793.10 USD which would be 'still' respectable for a years gain on any asset in that 1/1/2020 the price of BTC was $7,241.82 USD again using Coinmarketcap above link. That would still be 38.6% increase from 1/1/2020. Why anyone would put 'extra' money in the stock market on these returns, if they are speculating, is beyond me. So again, even with such a 'dire' drop in Bitcoin price...it would 'still' kick ass! Brad p.s. added a poll to this thread on what people think of the BTC ATH this (ugly) year of 2020 will be! I also really like this little animated Bitcoin Price Meme/Gif here: https://www.thebitcoinrider.com/Of course the classic transaction one as well: https://privacypros.io/tools/bitbonkers/ |
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I'm not sure when it is going to happen, but I've been in Bitcoin since April 13th, 2013 and I'm sure we will have the usual, about, 35% correction or haircut on something. My current bet is it will be some 'dubious' 'as long as we are voted out of office anyway' unworkable KYC in and out for BTC/Crytpo exchanges and/or something to do about private Bitcoin/Crypto wallets that are self-hosted. My 'current' bet for this 35% haircut will be due to this large FOMO pump which also will place such in place, likely ASAP. So the only question is how high will Bitcoin be when the haircut and 35% correction happens...well, who knows. But it has been a constant of such corrections on dubious regulations or exchanges crashing or whatever..like the pump ...there will be the dump. But damn, it sure would be nice if it happened at an All-Time-High (ATH) of like $50,000 USD or some such, huh? Till then enjoy the ride. Brad |
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Today's Date: 12/17/2020 From the current price from www.coinmarketcap.com. Today's Time: See Forum Time On This Post! Current Price: $23,503.01 Total BTC Needed: 42.55 BTC! Well, what a difference one day makes! The old yesterday on 12/16/2020 price I posted above $19,243.56 to the price as of this posting on today 12/17/2020 of $23,503.01 or a difference in price of exactly $4,259.45 (sheesh!) ...gets the blood pumping. I may have to get a new FOMO song for such pumps my current FOMO and pump in Bitcoin . price song is "Secret Agent Man" (The lyrics fit quite well in HODL'ing BTC/Crypto of any kind!) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nGZ0ntpSx2YSo anyway, this is getting 'interesting'. Being Bitcoin and all there will be the 'someday' usual 35% correction, but I've no idea what the Bitcoin price will be until such happens...so ride this horse till it dies I guess. Zoom/Zoom/Zoom! Brad |
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At this very moment, everyone is discussing how the price of bitcoin is going to exceed 20,000$ within this month. But by analysing both current and previous situations, my personal opinion is it's not possible for now. What is your thinking regarding this situation?
If bitcoin can not exceed $20,000 this month, we don't have to worry because bitcoin price will have much time to pump. I believe that bitcoin will finally break $20,000, no matter if bitcoin needs more time to increase. I am sure people will accept that and they will still wait for the bitcoin price to rise. The market situation becomes better than a few days ago, so I expect that we will see something good with bitcoin. But we need to prepare for anything that can happen to bitcoin because no one will know what will happen later. I think that Bitcoin will NOT exceed $20,000.00 till well into the year 2021. Maybe if we are 'really' lucky I'd say by the end of March 2021. My reasoning after being into BTC since the day I started on her of April 13th, 2013 is the pattern I've seen over the last 7 to almost 8 years since. ATH then FOMO then FUD. First, you have an ATH (All-Time-High) then you have the PUMP and FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) then lastly, the most painful FUD (Fear/Uncertainty/Disinformation) In other words, the ATH gets Bitcoin/Crypto a LOT of attention...as it has, as just now, 'puttered' up to that ATH again after 3 years or so. then the 'powers that be' as I like to call them Govt/Traditional Finance/Banks/Centralized Power/Elites/ etc. All go 'damn' when did BTC/Crypto slap back as a 'thing'? Last we looked it was 12/24/2018 and BTC went from the last ATH down to $3,900.00 USD or so. So the FUD kicks in. Got to 'slap' this idea of decentralized power back in its place. Like the USA powerful just tried to do with that 'pesky' decentralized Presidential Vote in this last election or gerrymandering districts to concentrate political power or stopping decentralized labor reform, etc. Too frigging dangerous. Again, they will 'fail' at this, but this is the usual 'slap-back' I've seen about 4x since 2013. If I still had 'courage' like when I had no $$$ alas, no balls anymore to sell BTC on the dip and re-buy. Now safer just to HODL/HOARD But anyway, always a 'slap-back' of anything to do with decentralized wealth and/or power from those that love the status quo and have $$$ and power. The essence of a Political Science Degree Indeed. So the Federal Govt will likely IMHO, pass the regulation, in the dead of night with no hearings, and make self-hosted wallets unusable at best on USA crypto exchanges unless you can do KYC (Know Your Own Customer) both ways on any BTC address transaction. Which of course, is unworkable, and likely enough pushback by big shots in BTC/Crytpo to be reversed, but this seems to be a deal with ALL the fast track regulations being slam'd out by the former Trump Administration so I'm sure we won't be left out. This means, ahem 'cheap coins' the price will be slap'd down by such an action and the resulting few months of confusion at best until the Biden Administration would, under pressure, fix this in a more sensible manner. The other thing, of course, black swan event wise also, is that Mt.Gox is going to release $2.6 Billion USD of Bitcoin from the 2014 settlement of, exchange going under. Again, best case, short-term price shock IMHO, due to the fact if you are such a legacy Bitcoinner from back in 2013 and 2014 you had Mt.Gox Bitcoin you may get back, you are just gonna move the stuff to a different wallet maybe or your Trezor and HODL is my guess. But things in the best light will dump price to about $12k to $13k IMHO before resolving over our 'lovely' pandemic winter, so it will be 'cheap coins' and I should buy some more BTC dust. If I am wrong and all this stuff makes it a lot worse, I'll have more to worry about with my BTC Hoard/HODL stuff...that the BTC dust I will lose by buying in 2021 on the assumptions on the 'dip' in prices above...I will not notice through the sobbing and the tears, if we have to wait for another 3 years till another ATH and $20,000.00 BTC. I hope I'm wrong, but that has been the pattern sucess (ath) fomo (adoption) fud (slap back) So the choices are, this too shall pass and if it takes 2-3 months of price confusion and FUD ..but as much 'cheap BTC/Crypto as you can!... If I am wrong then the BTC dust I 'gather' on the way down in price above if there are more long term or year(s) to come back to the ATH, the BTC dust I spent on the way down won't matter. I'll be crying like a 7-year-old child if I have to start at 8K coin again and wait 2-3 years for $20,000 or next ATH yet, again. God help me if I have to face below $10k BTC again. I may be inconsolable in my grief. Ack! The Horror! Ack! Thus the choice is easy, may as well be optimistic and buy BTC dust in mass quantities if possible and cross fingers. The alternative of either of the above having long term multi-year effects from re-acquiring the ATH or $20,000 BTC is to 'horrible' to contemplate! Brad Well, I am 'happily' having a fine meal of 'crow' as we speak. It will need a lot of seasoning and steak sauce...but am 'happy' to be wrong and scarfing it down as we speak! So, as they say in refined circles now, the traditional bankers, the monied interests, govt officials as tonight's cocktail parties and such. Ahem, 'What the F*ck is going on with Bitcoin! And What can we do to 'slow it down' or 'stop' it? I imagine there are many, many financial advisors telling their big money (million/billion) dollar clients that they need a safety net of like 2-4% in Gold..or worse yet bonds our of stocks and 60% bonds, (which IMHO with all the 'money printing' due to recession/pandemic and Trump Tax cuts of 2.1 Trillion to the very wealthy, well, bonds will likely not keep up at all with 'inflation' in say a 2-3 year recovery...sorry...I digress!) Anyway, as I see such a scene of many many people richer in fiat and gold and properties and stocks/bonds realizing that there is gonna be a 'correction' and such in the stock market...I can't see with 3x the unemployment of the last economic downturn around 2007 that this will not happen! Then, why the hell, would they get bonds or gold? So I suspect a 'pushback' to the financial advisor along the lines of "IF what you say is true and the stock market will correct and we will have depressed consumer spending in this recession and also bonds probably won't cut it as a hedge year by year vs inflation, with all the money printing going on... why should I JUST limit myself to gold and bonds? What about Bitcoin/Crypto? Should I not double down and put 2-4% in BTC/Crypto as well? Indeed is this not a 'better' hedge at least in comparing it to gold/bonds when looking at returns for BTC/Crypto in 2020? I see lots and Lots of pushback, on people trying to 'tweak' their traditional portfolios this year....with some hard, hard questions about why not BTC/Crypto to a person's financial advisor along these lines of a stock market correction. This obviously is happening at the institutional level with these questions being asked, on why not a BTC/Crypto hedge? I assume it will trickle down to a hard set of questions for regular folk asking their financial advisors now in 2020 as well. I mean from $7,194.98 USD on January 1st, 2010 to the current All-Time-High (ATH) as we speak, 'pumping' of $21,742.25 or within spitting distance of 3x the amount it was on 1/1/2020? Sh*t, we may have a 'run' at $30k before the end of the year at this rate. So just to keep it going in the right direction if we beat $25k BTC I'll happily dine on another meal of crow! Can't happen right? Crow tastes just dandy while watching ATH FOMO if you watch such with a lot of alcohol. As a 'fun' activity it is not bad! Thus the FOMO on Bitcoin price. Also, I think this FOMO is almost 'exclusively' institutional $$$. What the hell the price is gonna be when the 'regular joe' jumps in with his financial advisor I've no idea! $30k BTC? $40K BTC? Sh*t. Things are wild. Actually, 'crow' is not bad, tastes like 'overcooked' dry chicken! I should probably say we won't make $25k BTC again, so I can be wrong and have 'crow' again, before the first of the year. Yeah, I went there. Let's see if that worked. Brad |
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Well.....it is 10/27/19 at 8:35 pm CST in the USA. The price of BTC is pumping! currently is $9,871.00 USD. On www.coinmarketcap.orgSo I shall play my FOMO/PUMP music below to 'nudge' it along. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nGZ0ntpSx2Y Secret Agent Man 1966. Can we move past and stick the stable price at over $10,000 USD? Well, play and post a link to your FOMO/PUMP music as you watch this "hopefully" epic pump! (Myself, I need it to be $11,111.12 USD for obvious reasons. If BTC would just NEVER go below that amount, I'd never whine again!) later Brad Well, I guess it is time again to revive my post. The last time I posted was on 10/27/19 more than ONE year ago with BTC on that date of $9,871 and the burning question of can we move past $10,000.00 USD with some FOMO PUMP Music. At my current post (see post time) and on 12/16/2020 of All Time High (ATH) today of (so far..see post time) of $21,458.91 BTC! Also 'considering' that on January 1st, 2020 Bitcoin was well below my above post of a hope of $10,000.00 BTC and FOMO music pump. The price on that date was $7,198.20 USD. So the current price is 'almost' 3x that amount now. Thus, time for my usual FOMO music as in the past. Secret Agent Man! by Jonny Rivers. I really like the 'lyrics' when you apply them to HODL'ing, 'living a life of danger' ...odds are he won't live to see tomorrow' etc, etc. All very James Bond gambling at the casino..which indeed for some reason all this BTC seems for some strange reason make us all on Bitcointalk more attractive! (go figure) anyway, listening to my pick of FOMO music as I try to play on here and fix up the basement with shelving.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nGZ0ntpSx2Yactually, if this keeps up, I should only do FOMO songs on this thread for over a year if this is the result in Bitcoin Pumping! I wonder how high we will go, before the usual after the ATH then FOMO and then the FUD shows up on BTC regulations or whatever to hamstring us shows up? The usual 35% dump. Damn, I hope that happens at around $33k Bitcoin! Brad |
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Today's Date: 12/16/2020 From the current price from www.coinmarketcap.comToday's Time: See Forum Time On This Post! Current Price: $19,243.56 Total BTC Needed: 51.97 BTC! This was not even the "All-Time-High" today which according to www.coinmarketcap.com was $21,458.91! Fun Times. Always remember that All Time Highs (ATH) are due to FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) and then comes the say 35% correction, don't ya know! due to the FUD spread by 'doubters'/'govt'/Traditional money/etc. So only 'spend' as much as you can afford to lose, or in my case, sell crap you will otherwise die with out of attic on eBay and convert to BTC dust on www.coinbase.com or www.paypal.com for fun and profit. Also, always keep at 'least' 5 years, if not 10 years in HODL mode. So it goes! Brad |
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