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641  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN] Sia - Decentralized Storage on: February 22, 2020, 08:07:03 PM
what about coinbase custody ? no news since 2018...

unclear what you mean by above? Sorry clueless. Sad
642  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 22, 2020, 02:34:15 AM
Don't let them scare you into reporting you "holdings"!

Tell them NOTHING!

The IRS has known about me since 2013. Banker reported me to SEC for an over 10k sale to get KNC Jupiter Miner from Sweden...
...went to phone meeting with a banker and SEC (voice phone SEC end) and banker's 'proof' was BTC was 'evil' and no way I had
done taxes (spring 2014 with new IRS crypto rules) slap'd down my CPA done Tax Forms paid and SEC guy in a 'resigned' voice is
why am I here? ...so you can account for the BTC now or when they come later..I myself when the IRS or Whomever comes by saying
I am not legit due to my (1) trophy girlfriend (2) boat on the lawn (3) flashy car etc, will show them my 'legit' crypto earnings and tell
whoever they are to go 'pound sand' ..eventually KYC will be for all exchanges...so it will only get worse IMHO. (hope it is not as
bad as all that ...but soured me on what to expect as a newbie till now from 2013. Smiley

Brad
643  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN][LSK] Lisk | Blockchain Application Platform for JavaScript Developers on: February 21, 2020, 09:20:42 PM
@LISKELITE

why are payouts down about 50% since December 2019?Huh


all voted and checked via https://liskelite.com/checker

can anyone answer please

Also block reward reduction.

You'd think there would be a way to kick out delegates that don't pay out..but probably not...I guess

especially if the 'big guns' (see previous posts) simply toggle the top 101 and walk away

later

brad
644  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 21, 2020, 06:06:09 AM
Just got an email from Trezor with a link to their halving blog which mostly shits on PlanBTC stock to flow model.  I've always considered the S2F strong hopium for hodlers so nothing new but nice to get level-headed approach to alternative narratives.


TLDR, S2F model shows scarcity, not demand. Price and demand historically goes up with each supply halving, how much this time, still nobody knows.

Which is why I have always said the S2F will only be valid until it isn't, and that is probably coming soon.... maybe in one year, maybe two... It is just a matter of time it reaches a price mathematically impossible to achieve. But way sooner than reaching that point it will begin to fail.

Can Bitcoin reach $100K in the next couple of years? Yes, it is a *possibility*. I don't even give it a 50/50 chance... which is a lot anyways!

Can S2F model still be valid 10 years from now? No, it simply can't.

Nice hopium though.

my mantra any particular day. notice the 'worse case scenario' is no longer BTC to zero and beanie babies...anyway..my 'mental yoga' to stay in HODL mode

(that an feeling like a BTC revolutionary and not letting the monied interests/banks/elite ultra-rich co-opt blockchain privately for their own uses) Smiley

from worst case to best case.

(1) BTC will dump to 2/3 of the current price on whatever day you use this 'BTC mental yoga" method. BTC adoption having been reached, and BTC now
goes sideways in price, a bit better as a store of value than gold and now grows modestly at best as a traditional stock market valuation would from then on.

(2) BTC will stay at whatever current price on whatever day/hour/etc you use this 'BTC mental yoga' method. BTC adoption obviously having been made and
the price from this 'current price' you look at such, as a thought experiment, will at best go sideways and now due to adoption being met as a niche market
like gold, will now grow modestly like a traditional stock market asset from then on.

(3) BTC, at the current price on whatever time/date you are thinking about BTC, has not yet met its adoption threshold, or anywhere near such, like in the
top two visions above. Thus it will do with price and adoption what BTC as a 'black swan event' has done in the past and go up 3x/9x/18x etc in both price
and use and eventual (?) full adoption and acceptance. But we are nowhere near such yet. Thus, get what BTC 'dust' you can and HODL like hell.

So, this is what wanders through my mind (1) when BTC dumps big (2) when BTC goes sideways and is in 'Meh!" mode and (3) when halving is on the horizon

(pick any halving) and the price of BTC pumps.

Anyway, how I cope with the day to day using my 'supposed' BTC mental yoga tricks above. (lame though they may be to others!)

Brad
645  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 20, 2020, 03:33:48 AM
Supposedly Binance is back up...amazing how they 'always' seem to have issues on a major pump in price over a few days or the reverse on a dump in price.

I can see the engine room on the mighty Binance Yacht now! Down in the bowels of the ship this is being bellowed:

'Shut her down boys and girls, its time we polish the brass in the engine room and coast for a bit..till we can fire up and drive through this price/pump/dump storm and tranquil seas"

rinse/wash/repeat

646  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN] Litecoin - a lite version of Bitcoin. Launched! on: February 20, 2020, 03:27:45 AM
How true is that Litecoin is not having enough developers to keep this blockchain active? One of the things litecoin has on its favor is Segwit and LN already activated, something that many other altcoins are having it only in their plans.

More than 90% of Litecoin Development historically is simply just doing Bitcoin-Core updates. Mimblewimble is pretty much one of the few ways Litecoin is trying to go its own way, but we will see.

So, IMHO, it is less about developers and more about how far, the powers that be, want to 'stray' from Bitcoin-Core vs the features/etc that Litecoin launched with and the few added tweaks up to this point in time.
647  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN] Sia - Decentralized Storage on: February 20, 2020, 03:25:18 AM
The good thing about Sia is that the developers are not fans of soft or hard forks, so the project was designed to have decentralization in mind for as long as possible, according to what I saw at Skynet article.

When will Sia coin be available to store at edger or Trezor?


From what I saw SkyNet is just  regular 'open' unencrypted network aspect of Oblisk, so my question is how is the sia-tech encrypted network project proceeding and/or how do their nodes or web portals work?

or is it as usual, sia-obelisk is pointing at one thing while lagging on progress on another front? Feel free to beat me up with facts, I'd like to be wrong and it is 'gangbusters' every place the devs touch lately. Wink

Brad

648  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 19, 2020, 10:05:00 PM
Going to bed, hopefully I don’t wake up to sub $9,000 or something equally disgusting.


Similar situation, similar thinking, hoping for a similar wished outcome

6-7 hours ago

Binance is down for 'unscheduled' maintenance...sure....all is well, all is well...

https://bitcoinist.com/binance-undergoes-maintenance-will-crypto-prices-dump/

I take that as a YES...FML...no manipulation or games here...move along...

Brad
649  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN] Sia - Decentralized Storage on: February 18, 2020, 10:52:30 PM
Someone is cooking behind the scenes. I smell big gains in Sia this year.

Let's hope so. I'd like to see returns on my SC1  Grin

Any ideas or guesses? I really like the fact they are doing well...Obelisk-Tech still owes me a 'supposed' $600 for late delivery they promised on SC1's from Jan 2018...

I have an email someplace saying they will pay me as soon as they show a profit. What a bunch of hooey...

we will see, not optimistic that this is not just a pump and dump and/or ever seeing my 'supposed' $600 compensation

Brad
650  Economy / Services / Re: [CFNP] SmartMixer Signature Campaign | Sr./Hero/Legendary Members on: February 18, 2020, 05:11:53 PM
Well, I guess I will try this again. Smiley

Bitcointalk profile link: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=99165
Current amount of posts (including this one):   9114
Amount of merit EARNED in the last 120 days: 66
SegWit BTC Address for Payouts: 1PbhCD56EE1ur45UvTca5wEUkAPpTi25oq



651  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 18, 2020, 12:03:20 AM
Quote from: lightfoot link=topic=178336Y.msg53860479#msg53860479 date=1581981987
You can't steal money with crypto. Small wonder the banksters hate it.

Yep. Why I drank the kool-aid back in 2013 on BTC/Crypto, sometimes I forget the 'dire' Plan B endgame of BTC/Crypto that may happen someday. Sad

Why I HODL somewhat, probably more than I should, while currently, just maintaining my traditional investments and staying out of debt.

A world without decentralized BTC/Crypto and Banks and Governments and such having their 'own' blockchain crypto and still charging the same fees etc

under the old system. Ack!

Indeed such a scenario would mean that they could move BTC like that one whale of $1 Billion Dollars for 26 dollars. Yet keep the whole fee

structure the same/control the whole blockchain network as centralized/print more crypto to manipulate prices?

Yep, back to Trillionaires in 10-15 years and Feudalism. It would not take long, IMHO.

My fear would be the worst of both worlds, a good 30 to 40% recession according to some pundits, as well as those same pundits saying that it would

not like in the past take 7 years to recover but 12 years on such a future recession, stuff being so F*cked up these days.

So a world where I buckle and sell and not HODL and decentralized BTC/Crypto dies and is taken over by the established money/elite/upper 1/2 of 1% in the world? I mean

crypto dies just to be usurped by centralized government banker coin?

Well, if that is the trend, well before such a 'dismal' BladeRunner future, I will become a 'minimalist' consolidate what I can and be

damn mobile and travel in the world or something.

Sitting in one place watching such a slide with house/stuff/traditional investments/crypto/recession or depression slide bit

by bit..I'll bail and go full 'walk-about' in the world with what I can coral for my own needs and rent/lease and frigging travel.

Folks/Young People 40 years or much more younger than myself could well have the right idea on how to fight such a world of even more ramped up consumerism for getting stuff's sake.

Hell, that is probably what I should do now, come to think of such. It would be nice to go back to a time where everything fit in my car and I just rented. It is not like in 15-20 years

due to age, I'm not gonna go down that path anyway. Such a complete cluster for the next 4 years as the last 4 years or so, and I'll probably pull the whole downsize lifestyle much

earlier.

So yeah, a person should have a 'go to hell' plan on how to wrap stuff up.

I'm 65 years old on March 24th, 2020 and in 15-20 years I'd have to do such downsizing anyway...but if things really go to sh*t I'll do it a hell of a lot earlier!

(Best to have a get out of Hell plan, lowest BTC you'll keep HODL and stubbornly die with if that's what it takes, and of course, traditional investments cashed out and such.)

In such a world a lot of people would go 'screw this' and minimalize their life, especially clutter, and especially if you are retired and over 66 years retirement age.

 Anyway, end of rant, but a likely plan, if things get worse.

(remember the days of 7 years ago, when everybody said things were gonna get better and working together was the plan) Smiley

 I miss them newbie 2013 days when I got into BTC. The world was a lot more 'shiny' then! Hell, the world went to hell when they took 'Firefly' off the air! Smiley

We all have some kinda 'line in the sand' these days. In a 'rough' not quite figured out how/why/what, something like the above, is a 'way' to keep sanity if things go even more to sh*t.

Now if it is all 'unicorns and rainbows/fairy dust/and bunny farts" I'll probably continue to HODL too much BTC/Crypto, keep my big house and all my important 'stuff' (ie junk)

and blithely go along on my usual conspicuous consumption of dubious stuff that every American does for a lifestyle choice, self-centered though it may be.

But there will be a point I may just 'snap' and dump the works well, well before my days of assisted living downsizing., in 15-20 years.

There is more to a "Plan B" than just BTC/Crypto! Sometimes I forget these revolutionary aspects of why I HODL and drank the kool-aid back in 2013 when I started in BTC/Crypto!

later

Brad
652  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 16, 2020, 08:39:35 PM
@Searing

So you only had to sell 10% of your bitcoins after it crashed with 80%. You are privileged. It is this primary emotion called greed telling you that you could have sold less or could have had more. It hurts and likely most of us have been there (even people ‘late’ entering during 2017.

You were however over-invested needing the dollars in the short term. Glad it worked out for you though.


(And personal opinion: think about why you hold on to those bcash and bsv. Is it as a hedge in case Bitcoin fails? Or is it greed thinking it will increase in value against bitcoin during a bull run? The latter is not a rational decision).

I made another too long post on the power of living within your means and just plain being *bored* to do something 'dubious' Smiley How I half-assed stumbled into BTC/Crypto.

As to the BSV and BCH at my BTC-Core level, it probably would be a 'tiny' help in the big-hurt because if IMHO BTC-Core is destroyed those coins at best would be $500 USD IMHO.

So in the great scheme of things..big whoop....(thus the traditional investments and of course on the other side BTC as my plan B)

That indeed is *just in case* why I've been keeping the

BCH and BSV ...but lately with BSV and even BCH it is getting in my view beyond silly/stupid and clueless how they are doing stuff...thus the wtf I should just dump them

I should make a combined price of BCH/BSV vs BTC after cap gains taxes/state taxes graph day by day on what would be left as a convert to BTC as a ratio to keep track of.

Base my dump of such on what return vs price of above would give me to BTC. When/IF BTC price starts to run away and make such an xfer worse..then dump and get BTC.

But anyway, in a previous post I'm trying to state that what if what everyone (mostly) is stating on WO and Bitcointalk, etc is that BTC is NOT too high priced but is *undervalued*?

What if BTC does go up in value to 100k in the next few years? People should be 'accumulating' dust BTC/Crypto IMHO for little risk even now and great rewards are possible!

I think the odds of BTC/Crypto going to zero are less than the current price x 10 from now. So I'm trying to accumulate BTC dust for those reasons also...

To me, it is 'little risk' of discretionary cash a person can afford and huge rewards being long term very possible yet.

Anyway, how I'd approach stuff now as a newbie. Attic Mine sell crap for BTC dust and or a little each month you can afford...that perhaps you'd blow on beer/broads/eBay etc anyway.

My boredom/cluelessness/luck/reach back to the 2013 newbie self I once was, even now, does not seem an impossible goal for potential future rewards with BTC/Crypto.

Anyway, what I'm trying to do now, as I would as a *newbie* today. Smiley

Brad
653  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 16, 2020, 08:18:57 PM
[edited out]
Yeah I agree, in my post, since this reply above...you can see I have little to lose and currently I am bored...somewhat...so it is a modest goal the 8.5 BTC I'd like to recover yet..and trying to use it as a lever to clean attic out on eBay sales to BTC. So I am in a 'hugely' better position to be in  'dubious' HODL mode now..even if it is just to add some dust back to the panic sell of me being now only 8.5 BTC down. But indeed that was my FIRST real panic dump of any BTC since 2013...or ever for that matter....sure I ran through altcoins from mining for early retirement etc..but, it kinda was I had to dump the BTC also with altcoins or go back to work.

Sh*ty choice waited too long, panic'd for that real-life money, yech!

Ultimately, you have to decide for yourself what you want to do.  Personally, I think that it is a pretty BIG ASS waste of time to become too preoccupied with attempting to make up 8.5 BTC or whatever the artificial goal of 100BTC that you are trying to make.  Having 100BTC is too fucking arbitrary, especially for a guy who is 65 years old and may or may not live another 25 years.  To me it seems that having 100BTC just does not matter.

The more important consideration is just figuring out where you are at and I really think that you are no longer in accumulation mode, but instead either in maintenance mode or liquidation mode, which means that you can just decide the amount that you are willing to liquidate each year, and if it remains a possibility that you could panic sell again, then you should just figure out how much is the maximum that you are going to permit yourself to sell each year.. whether it is between 4% and 6% or if you choose some other amount that you believe works for yourself.

You have already suffered from what could happen if you do NOT liquidate enough, which is you end up panic selling.  So to avoid that, it is good to just periodically sell a small portion that fits within guidelines that you choose ahead of time, and likely between 4% and 6% could work... and also maybe you need to consider whether you are ready to start right now, or not.  Regarding using some of your extra cashflow to buy BTC  or to get to your artificial goal of 100BTC, fuck that shit.  Just keep that money in cash, and if the BTC price happens to drop, then just use it to buy small amounts on the way down, otherwise don't fucking worry about trying to get to some artificial goal because it is causing you to overly obsess on that number and then to overly invest in such a way that it is nearly inevitable that you are going to cause yourself another possible panic situation - because we know that King Daddy bitcoin has these tendencies to overshoot in various directions, and sure it is better if it is overshooting in the upwards direction, but it cannot be guaranteed to overshoot in the upwards direction.   

What BTC was on Jan 18th, 2018 and close to ATH and me saying looks good for retirement prices and end of year $3,965 BTC prices..well ...ugly is being kind as a statement...but circumstances have changed from the middle of 2019....so 4.5 BTC back in the HODL hoard is a win IMHO.

Yeah, overall it seems that you did good to recover some of the amount that you sold, and by the way, BTC prices did go down to $3,124 in December of 2018... so when you sold, you did provide yourself with some insurance during that period.. and insurance is not free, and also hindsight might be 20/20.. but we cannot be kicking ourselves for better ways that we might have played the matter, but instead hopefully learning from the situation in order to figure out if there are ways that we could currently tweak our approach in order to become a bit more comfortable with where we are currently at... including being prepared for either BTC price direction on an ongoing basis.

Only 8.5 BTC is a fun self-deprecating goal for all of you on WO following my 'dubious' antics and a lesson on NOT to panic like a small 9-year-old girl in such circumstances, even though the panic sell was for real-life issues and probably justifiable with the massive dump in BTC and Crypto prices I was relying on for retirement at least until 66yrs 2months and not go back to work (shudder) for 1.5 to 2 years till that full retirement) Sad

I am not going to say that you did the wrong thing.


Although you could easily make the case I should be blowing a % of my BTC/Crypto on women of easy virtue and of dubious moral character (ie Golddigger) Smiley

..but alas, that has not come up yet to tempt me to dump BTC/Crypto now. (Damn it!) Sad

Brad


The hookers, lambos and blow part is up to you, and surely it is good to make sure that your investment situation is stabilized before going too much down the consumption rabbit hole.  At the same time, it does not hurt to have some consumption and pleasure budget, especially if you already have various aspects of your investment in decent shape and order.

Sometimes, also, you are going to have a bit of excess of wealth that is building up (and BTC can contribute towards causing that), and in those circumstances, it surely does not hurt to step up the standard of living a bit.  Does not need to be BIG stepping ups, but incrementally stepping up the standard of living can be a good thing.

Sometimes there can be ways to reasonably include expensive chick kinds of expenses into your budget, as long as you are largely calling the shots rather than letting some cute and manipulative chick trick you out of your BTC and other assets more quickly than you would prefer. 

If one, two or 10 chicks slowly milk you out of a decent proportion of your excess BTC over 25 years and such ongoing serial milkenings gives you a lot of pleasure along the way, then it may be well worth the time and money that is spent on such... as long as you are figuring out a way to balance it, too.    Yeah, if you are not used to it, then you surely don't want to jump in too quickly...

Don't get me wrong, I have not paid directly for the company of cuties in any kind of transactional kind of way, but sometimes I have been in relationships in which I have been engaging in expensive consumptive activities including going on trips and going out to eat at nice places (of my choice of course), and spending a decent amount of extra money to wine, dine and travel in various circumstances, so those extra expenses are likely to have taken away from some of my investing in BTC or even preserving my BTC stash, but there are still ways to step up your level of consumption in incremental ways that you can handle and control, and the amount of pleasure can be quite good too..

it can be considered as the whole hookers, lambos and blow idea that is the aspiration that is a bit of an exaggeration, because you might not just jump straight into such increases in luxury... but instead transition into some of those kinds of excesses, and I don't think it is a bad thing to perhaps transition into some excesses in consumption as long as you figure out ways to do it in a way that is good for your own situation while you are cognizant of the limitations of your investments including the reasonable cashflow that you can derive from your investments including the timeline that you have for the investment to last that includes your ability to step up consumption levels, too, and ultimately, you have to be the one that feels good about your uses of your time and money.. including not getting too far over your head into situations that you have screwed up your personal security and/or control over your finances.   


Yeah, I agree..everything you say is spot on...it is silly the whole 8.5 BTC kinda thing...but bored...have the discretionary income now outside of traditional investments and not living off

crypto anymore...thus my ratio of silliness to boredom ratio has been massively expanded...

Also, a good way to get at least SOME motivation for eBay sells via attic mining...some of this is just me being silly...for no real reason outside of boredom lately. I always have to

remember *Boredom* is HOW I got into bitcoin to get an idea of how clueless I've been on a lot of stuff since 2013...

I'd peaked out at my job/lifestyle/$$$/etc and in reality, the job was a dead-end, applying for other jobs in the field (age discrimination is real) ...everything was kinda meh!

A part-time faculty as Adjunct went away, another side job also got eliminated....so was looking at retirement at 70 years and being a greeter at Walmart after for lifesyle....was not good.

I was bored to tears...Summer of 2013...looking at putting up old game server (below) stuff to do. So I got that KNC 550gh Jupiter miner (ordered on July 1st, 2013) when BTC was

about $91.02....*newbie* could just as well bought BTC would have had the same amount of BTC that the unit made..more if you count electric I ate out of the unit. Smiley meh!

So I got the KNC Jupiter because I was *bored* and wanted to put up the free old game server towers that would have cost me $60 a month to run just in electric

*yeah, it was that big*.

It seemed a hell of a lot of work and monthly expense though, just because I was bored...figured It would have put me back $2.5 to $3k. But needed hobbies till 70 years and Walmart Career.

I also had some game of throne swords from the BOOK version pre-HBO...rare collectibles...

so I heard about BTC and the KNC machine and kept walking by the collectible swords, with HBO series coming out, finally snapped and sold coins and took game server fund

and between what I was gonna put into the game server (without the pesky I eat the electric costs for the game server) and the sale of the swords at around 4x what I bought

them for (new in the box)....that covered the $5,131.80 for the KNC unit and I decided to get into BTC mining for something more useful to do with my time than the game server.

As a long term plan, (the KNC machine eating electric costs) I figured I could ROI in 8 months and MAYBE pay my house utilities for say

another say 6 months with this as a hobby, before the KNC unit became a doorstop. Boredom issues solved. Stuff to do before becoming a Walmart Greeter! Yea!

And by god, I would not be bored anymore and have something *useful* do mining 'dubious' 1 BTC out of the sky a day in a mysterious fashion...all very cool! (It had been a

long time since I was cool don't ya know)

Also, the news was big on crypto and micro-lending projects to India ao hell, I thought BTC could do some good. Right after that, of course, BTC went parabolic in price.

So the combination of ...Boredom/Newbie Cluelessness/and dumb luck was my *in hindsight* 'business plan it seems. I have learned the power of boredom and trying stupid stuff!

Thus here I am *bored* again, attic mining, whining about BTC 8.5 lost (mostly in jest to motivate attic cleanup), etc...

So as 'silly' as all this is likely to seem to the outside world, this all keeps me *amused* and *less bored* and I always have to remind myself that doing somewhat clueless

and dubious stuff in the past to overcome what I may consider *boring* at any given time has been very, very, good to me.

So some of this dust accumulation is just that, going with the clueless flow and *gut* feeling of accumulation of dust and tongue in cheek whining about

my puny 8.5 BTC lost and what to do with my 'free-time' beside this dust accumulation and posting on www.bitcointalk.org. (I type as fast as I think so that is not

a real-time issue either on here either as folk may think)

I am not a hermit I teach Shotokan Karate at the local university, play with retro computers, am in clubs...but again, it is frigging *winter* in the frigging midwest...so I'm gonna bet on

*boredom* one more time with my dust BTC/Crypto endeavors and see where I end up next! Smiley God help me if FPGA mining ever takes off again, or I'll likely fall down that rabbit hole

next!

But with me, NEVER, underestimate the power of having 'too much' free time and indeed a case can be made that I HODL too

much BTC. But my background in wealth/job/lifestyle etc was 'quite' modest before 2013 and has stayed more or less the same via circumstances...it  has thru luck/some long term

traditional investments/no debts/paid off house/and BTC/Crypto of which all of such, both traditional and BTC/Crypto are sorta 'paper' profits I've not touched and now without

living on BTC/Crypto due to circumstances change and monthly income off estate/traditional investments...I can be even more 'odd' and just leave both of them alone. I am likely

fine living off either at my present lifestyle etc. So again, the whole conspicuous consumption was killed in my lifestyle long before 2013. So in my mind lately it is 'what risk?'

So, anyway, being boring and all, if no BTC/Crypto in this Universe, I'd likely be playing this game with stocks and traditional investments. As it is, bleeding what I consider

excess into BTC/Crypto with what I see as another major Recession coming...alleviates the more risk than that IMHO..and gives me silly goals that 'supposedly' will pan out in the future.

So again, Boredom/Cluelessness/too much free time and silly ass project goals have been very, very, good to me!

But again, you are completely right, I am a silly, old man, odd, somewhat clueless, lucky, crypto nerd of dubious sanity in the dead of winter...pining away my lost 8.5 BTC sold with dubious

dust/BTC/methods of accumulation.

But again, it is the dead of winter the midwest and dubious ASIC mining is done for me now, in any manner, at 10c kWh. Thus I shall fall back on my tried and true

method of luck/boredom/dubious projects/etc..and sh*t maybe lightning will strike twice. Smiley

Maybe by the time I'm 70, I'll be a Walmart Greeter anyway, not needing the money, they always seem pretty happy right?

later

brad
654  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 16, 2020, 04:45:20 AM
Since some here are in philosophizing mode tonight...
a question...
At which point does regular job become rather meaningless?
When savings equal 50 yearly salaries? 100? 1000?
Personally, I think that the number is very individual and depends on whether you like you regular job or not.
However, I would think that at 500-1000X most would consider at least easing out of a regular job and, maybe, pursue some personal growth hobbies or activities (travel, yachting, art, collecting, etc).
I am still working for a living and will be for a duration, hopefully.

When at around ATH I dumped full time job = retirement is what I thought altcoins could cover for 2.5 years (9 months) = what traditional investments and soc sec and medicare could cover at 66 years and 2 months...that whole 85% BTC dump and 95% or some such altcoin dump hurt big time till circumstances changed and these last 1.5 years not living on crypto in between anymore.

So to me same lifestyle (seemed like a good bet) for retirement 3.5 years early...seemed the way to go.

(20/20 hindsight you merciless bitch!) Smiley

Brad
655  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 16, 2020, 03:55:29 AM


Currently, playing 'when to buy into more BTC game'...thinking I'll wait for a 'weekend weak dump' maybe?

Those currently who know my 'track record' on timing such, be sure to adjust your purchases accordingly, so you can

'mock' my 'timing' later.

(Hey, the wrong price at the wrong time is how I roll. On the other hand, if you HODL long enough ..it does not matter) Smiley

Brad

Well, I recall that you were selling items from your attic, and so you bought some BTC in parts of 2019 with that generated extra money.  

What is the source of the extra money that you have this time?  

Is it just extra savings that you have accumulated from your regular income over the past year or so?  

You did not want to buy BTC with that money earlier in 2019 as that money was coming in, but now, after BTC has gone up about 60% over the past two months you want to buy more BTC with that extra money that had been flowing in through the year?  The upwards BTC price movement, currently, is causing you to feel that you are underinvested in BTC because you are thinking that you might be able to get rich quick.. over the next 1-2 years?

I am not going to say that you are going to be wrong in that kind of 1-2 year period, even if it is unclear about whether you will benefit in the short run or have better buying opportunities in the coming weeks or months before the halvening.

These days, I prefer to think about any new money that goes into bitcoin to have at least a 4 year investment time horizon.  Of course, no problem if BTC


go shooting up from here, so then you would not have to stick with the 4 year investment time horizon thinking because once your injection of value is in profits you have options to pull it out at any time, but anyhow, since you and I should be in a similar position regarding having had already largely accumulated most of our BTC,  it seems strange to me that someone who had already largely accumulated in the 3 digits would be experiencing any kind of meaningful FOMO feelings after about a 60% BTC price appreciation in the past two months, not withstanding any inclination just to do a bit of dollar cost averaging investing from time to time, as money comes in, as heslo's above response suggests.

Caretaker for the estate. Money passes to me, I get some each month from the estate, I then watch manger of the estate and keep majority to pass on to nieces and nephews..that kinda

thing. The whole get around IRS thing using estate planning. Thus enough monthly income, that the crypto is not needed in retirement anymore. Or at least till we have another recession

or some such, thus the Bitcoin buying and the long HODL bet on such.

Also, attic mining! Smiley

I should call the nieces and nephews as I look at all the junk I likely can't toss (worth something) but likely will die the attic/storage. Thus call them up and say, "Come and

get YOUR crap out of my attic!" That would be the logical solution on stuff I'll likely hoard till then anyway. They inherit it then. Just do so now! They can sell it on eBay!

Just move the process up a little bit. That or me sell on eBay. (so boring to do).

Anyway, I got back about 4 BTC buying it back from original 13 BTC I sold at $3,695 on 12/24/18 I think it was.

I was pleased with sell when it went down to like to a low of $3,400 per BTC then. Er, now, not so much Sad But 4 BTC back is better than the full 13 BTC down from that sell!

So anyway only 9 BTC down from original scream like a 9-year-old girl sobbing sale back then. Thus I HODL for less drama now. Smiley

I also can't let go of the fact that IF BTC and decentralized crypto dies on the vine and is taken over by banks (the blockchain) and such...I don't imagine fees for banks will go down..even

though for every fee still would be the top 1/2 of 1% or whatever usual $$$ ripoff.

With that kind of centralized control of crypto along with the current banking and finance system still in place it

is hard to imagine a world NOT full of Banker/Elite Trillionaires..in about 10-15 years. This assumes IF like that 1 BTC whale and you can move 1 billion in BTC for $26 bucks.

Imagine banks and the current elite controlling all that centralized blockchain coin but still getting current legacy fees like traditional banks on such.

Give that 100 years and we'd be under Royalty and everyone would be 'serfs' and onward and upward into feudalism again, IMHO. It would be bad indeed.

I'm 65 years old. I maybe, if extremely lucky, live another 25 years and be 'pinching' cute nursing aides in the Nursing Home, by that point in time.

So WTF, take a chance and HODL already. I may NEVER get that full 13 BTC back that I am currently down 9 BTC...but I'm trying to nibble it away.

I SHOULD dump my sh*tcoins and BSV and BCH, that fell from the sky on their forks and make the last 9-12 BTC up that way. But currently confused

with those sh*tcoins all pumping, big time! Some of which like LISK and SIACOIN I'm utterly befuddled on. But that is the other option of my plan to 'recover' those

last 9 BTC. But in 20/20 hindsight, indeed $3,400 coin was dire, so I should pat myself on back and that I only sold 13 BTC.  So 9 BTC to go till recovery. Smiley

Knock Wood! I am buying dust here now that it is under 10k again, so it seems the BTC flavored kool-aid drinking I did in 2013 still has some magical effect. Smiley

later

Brad


Well, yes, it is good that you have some extra income, but I really believe that there should not be any major concern to replace the 9 BTC that you sold (and were not able to make up), especially if BTC prices go anywhere close to fulfilling any of the price prediction models, such as stock to flow or the four year fractal model, so you could cash out 4-6% of your BTC stash per year in the coming 25 years (that is if you can live that long) and probably still end up with a decent BTC stash at the end of your life.. and have plenty of extra cash flow from the BTC along the way too.

Of course, if BTC prices end up tanking and not really going up anymore, then your cashing out approach might need to be a bit more conservative, but you still have a decent stash to work with.  There are plenty of folks who are still striving to get somewhere in the 10 BTC to 20BTC arena, so even if you are aggressively cashing out in the coming 10 to 20 years or so, you will still likely have more than 20 BTC at the end of the period.. or at least maybe somewhere in the 10 BTC to 20 BTC arena after cashing out the others at decent prices along the way.

Another thing is that your costs per BTC are well below the $1k per BTC amount, so you have decent profits on each BTC, too, even if BTC prices were to perform a bit more mediocre than the bullish price prediction models are projecting.

Yeah I agree, in my post, since this reply above...you can see I have little to lose and currently I am bored...somewhat...so it is a modest goal the 8.5 BTC I'd like to recover yet..and

trying to use it as a lever to clean attic out on eBay sales to BTC. So I am in a 'hugely' better position to be in  'dubious' HODL mode now..even if it is just to add some dust back to

the panic sell of me being now only 8.5 BTC down. But indeed that was my FIRST real panic dump of any BTC since 2013...or ever for that matter....sure I ran through altcoins from mining

for early retirement etc..but, it kinda was I had to dump the BTC also with altcoins or go back to work.

Sh*ty choice waited too long, panic'd for that real-life money, yech!

What BTC was on Jan 18th, 2018 and close to ATH and me saying looks good for retirement prices and end of year $3,965 BTC prices..well ...ugly is being kind as

a statement...but circumstances have changed from the middle of 2019....so 4.5 BTC back in the HODL hoard is a win IMHO.

Only 8.5 BTC is a fun self-deprecating goal for all of you on WO following my 'dubious' antics and a lesson on NOT to panic like a small 9-year-old girl in such circumstances,

even though the  panic sell was for real-life issues and probably justifiable with the massive dump in BTC and Crypto prices I was relying on for retirement at least until 66yrs 2months

and not go back to work (shudder) for 1.5 to 2 years till that full retirement) Sad

Although you could easily make the case I should be blowing a % of my BTC/Crypto on women of easy virtue and of dubious moral character (ie Golddigger) Smiley

..but alas, that has not come up yet to tempt me to dump BTC/Crypto now. (Damn it!) Sad

Brad
656  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 16, 2020, 03:25:43 AM
Anyway, I got back about 4 BTC buying it back from original 13 BTC I sold at $3,695 on 12/24/18 I think it was.

Brad, not trying to rub things in. But I'm curious how a savvy BTC guy like you who has been into BTC as long as you have sold near the exact bottom of the market?

Did you really think at the time that Bitcoin was going lower? Or was it for something else?

He has admitted before that he panicked like a little girl.

his words

I get the impression that he is perhaps an older gentleman, I can see the allure of getting "something" out faced with the prospect of getting "nothing" out or waiting till you are old-as-fuck...

I am in absolutely no position to judge, having abjectly failed to harvest any benefit from the last bubble.  I actually typed "parabolic-er-er-er" at one point yet failed to sell due to greedfear.

The Mayor and I, leaning against each other sweating, horking into our NASA logo barf bags, hodling resolutely through the peak...

Emotions man, strong stuff.

You can't laugh at yourself what fun is there..but yeah watching $150 BTC at 1 BTC a day when I started mining Oct 18th, 2013 through the ATH and then the dump to $3,965...

yep, I cracked like an egg...but then again, at that point in time I did NEED the crypto to get me to 66 years and 2 months soc security and traditional investments...things

changed as in the previous post and I have traditional investment $$$ monthly now (that hell could really get hit in the future) so braver....but it is all about risk and reward

and again, having modest lifestyle all these years, except for the occasional toy or trip, when you do get $$$ for whatever reason the LAST thing you want is to raise your

spending lifestyle to what you think you need to be happy etc. That's a trap indeed. So again, from previous posts, my circumstances are right now ideal for HODL'ing due

to the above change in circumstances and my age of 65 and my retirement...and such. What do they say in the ads on T.V. 'conditions my a vary, not for everyone' Smiley

Brad


Anyway, I got back about 4 BTC buying it back from original 13 BTC I sold at $3,695 on 12/24/18 I think it was.

Brad, not trying to rub things in. But I'm curious how a savvy BTC guy like you who has been into BTC as long as you have sold near the exact bottom of the market?

Did you really think at the time that Bitcoin was going lower? Or was it for something else?

He has admitted before that he panicked like a little girl.

his words

I get the impression that he is perhaps an older gentleman, I can see the allure of getting "something" out faced with the prospect of getting "nothing" out

My way of thinking is that, if the following things are true:

1. You only invest what you can afford to lose,
2. Your quality of life is already at a decent level,
3. You understand Bitcoin tech,
4. You are not greedy,

...then you don't panic easily. You can HoDL down to even under $1k and not flinch. "Let it go to zero. I'm already doing OK, I don't really need it." That's what I say to myself when there's a big dip, and that's because of (1), (2), and (4). And if there's a big dip, I try to buy more coins, because of (3), but always respecting (1).

If you get scared easily and chicken out at big dips, you're doing it wrong.

Yep, this is true above "He has admitted before that he panicked like a little girl."

"Brad, not trying to rub things in. But I'm curious how a savvy BTC guy like you who has been into BTC as long as you have sold near the exact bottom of the market?"

Yep on the above....all them pesky 'real-life circumstances' below


Well, since HODL mode, except for mining and electricity and equipment, etc....I managed to HODL through it all from 2013 until 12/24/18 I dumped the 13 BTC.

But at that time (see previous posts) I had retired at 62 years at the ATH and was living off income from crypto until 66 years and 2 months and then I would
crypt
tap into my previous traditional investments at that point. Thus 30 years working with dev disabled/house paid no debt lifestyle...switches to crypto carry over

which I thought I had 3 years of altcoins to cover such ..burnt through that in 9 months with the dump/crash...again same lifestyle then without crypto and

66 years 2 months soc sec and traditional 'balanced' investments at my 65 years of age...again the same lifestyle. So again, retired with no change in money

or lifestyle or what I thought. So dumped the 13 BTC to get through next year or so with altcoins till 66 years and 2 months plan. ie thus panic and sold 13 BTC.

(hey, I only ran in the battle that one time..jeez). So my one great dump of any kind from HODL mode since 2013 and 13 BTC and dumping at the low was based

on panic and circumstances...I really, really was not gonna go back to work for another 1.5 to 2 years so yeah...I dumped 13 BTC indeed and assorted altcoins (at

least they were at the high compared to now)

Then as previous posts state had change in circumstances and monthly income improvement middle of 2019 ...thus the 13 BTC panic sale though understandable

was an overreaction..or not ..without the change in circumstances monthly improvement addition the 13 BTC had to go..since that no longer applies and such

I managed to worm back 4.5 BTC of the original 13 BTC sold in 2019 till now. So any way you are correct the panic did not come out of the blue, real-life pressures

did indeed cause me to panic sell, but one does not at the beginning of 2018 at ATH expect an 85% dump in BTC price and 95% dump in altcoins or whatever the %

ugly that it was. Anyway, circumstances have changed, discretionary money into my traditional investments does not seem prudent at this time, I expect a recession

thus HODL of crypto is probably a better bet now than it was even at these prices in 2018 given the current real-life and world financial health circumstances IMHO. Smiley

but what do I now... I panic sold 13 BTC at $3,965 USD...much angst...alas, lost the faith...a lapse in kool-aide drinking refreshment.

later

Brad
657  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 16, 2020, 03:18:28 AM
^

I didn't want to say it (the actual BTC count) but Searing himself did it again... With almost 100BTC he still have, no one can dare to say he did not do well. He just secured some profits when he thought he would MAYBE need the FIAT to last till retirement payments come. A somewhat small (around 10%) percentual amount. And probably that made him be a stronger holder with the rest of his more than healthy stash.

So, considering it all, he is way far from being a "bottom seller" but a strong hodler... even if he did sell "some" near the bottom.

Again, what changed is I am in charge of an estate for future trust etc. The IRS does NOT like passing such $$$ on to future generations in the family. So basically I get a %

a month for NOT running off (as IRS expects) and blowing it on hookers and blow ... the estate remains more or less at the same price base to generate interest and grow
 
into the next generation. So for my 'modest' needs (I worked for 30 years with the dev disabled and deaf-blind) and no debts, it comes down to...meh.....my needs are being met

and I'm bored. So yeah the pressure is off to sell BTC/Crypto now (except dubious coins and when to sell dubious sh*tcoins and forks)...So you are correct. Modest lifestyle-wise (ie boring)

I can likely live to 200 on the monthly take. Sometimes it just pays to be dumb and lucky. Smiley

So indeed the 13 BTC did go to the last 1.5 years of lifestyle (now I'm 8.5 BTC down heh) Smiley But I can HODL at the

same lifestyle and have the monthly income to put some 'dust' into BTC and thus whine about stuff on here...again...retired and bored..so wtf....it is what it is.

My situation has changed and tossing more $$$ in my lifestyle at such is not gonna fix much.

So I can afford to HODL more so now than in the recent past. Of course, IF the next recession comes, or should I say IF not when, and I am

expecting a good 30-40% recession, with some pundits saying it will be 12 years rather than 7 years to come back from such. My views may change if my traditional investments

really tank.

Thus the good old (hopeful) HODL mode of 'Plan B' (and portfolio with stocks setup to 'maintain' rather than grow at my age of 65 years) I should be just 'dandy'.

Again, thus my 'bravery'. Smiley Circumstances changed. I sure do miss ASIC mining though, but current tariff, difficulty on any crypto, and big miners and 10c kWh electric costs
to
have really sucked the 'fun' out of that. So alas, 'attic mining' sales to eBay than to BTC and rinse/wash/repeat for dust is going to have to be entertainment enough for now.

It is not like my 100 BTC (now 91.5 BTC) is a big secret....in 2013..it was considered 'small potatoes' at $150 BTC. Everyone knew everyone's stash back then..big whoop!

But yeah, I have little risk in HODL'ing...even if price did drop 1/3 and I dumped....it all is still a win as all 'evolved' from a KNC Jupiter 550gh miner in 2013 that cost me

$5,131.80. It is not like 'any' money from my modest dev disabled deaf-blind job went into the BTC business for electric or whatever..so again, the risk to me is non-existent.

No matter how bad this all gets, I will always show a profit. It can be debated on IF I HODL too long or IF I SOLD too soon or any % thereof....but I can afford this modest risk.

when you consider the source of all the wrangling/LTC to BTC/Altcoin ASIC mining to BTC and other shenanigans I did to eventually accumulate my BTC is all based on

that first piece of equipment to generate/wrangle current hoard...well sh*t...what I'm stating is here everyone needs to get to a place of 'excess' in their own minds on BTC/Crypto

on what they can accumulate and HODL IMHO. Again, in my previous messages, I claim a 1/3 chance of BTC/Crypto going parabolic again. What if BTC goes to 50K? How prepared

are you to risk some to get much and of course the chance of the risking some and losing all? The scary point is what if we all are still in the early stage of BTC use and price?

What is MORE interesting to me is if I would have done sh*t in 2015 and just stayed in HODL mode, I'd be almost even with all the mining of BTC

and re-investing BTC into ASIC equipment and the rest, sure, it worked a bit better, but hardly worth just having the BTC sit around and have BCH and

BSV falls out of the sky on to my BTC addresses. So with my mining of 'dubious' Altcoins, from what I figure in actual BTC combining such, even with forked coins, I'd end up pretty

much in the same boat.

My point is there is a lot of 'running about' here and there in BTC/Crypto....only thing that makes sense to me is HODL and hope it does go parabolic. I tell people to get some 'dust'

for small risk and hopefully from now the same big or bigger rewards, I have gotten since 2013. Again, I expect the next recession to be a doozy.....some of that determines my

actions as well.

But 20/20 hindsight was a lot of frigging work mining, to end up in the same place as just sitting on hands in 2015 in full HODL mode.

Also, remember some of what I post is in storytelling mode ie...don't do what I did kinda thing if I can't laugh at my panic sell (not kidding about the 9-year-old yelling and

some tears selling at $3,965) well what fun is being on here sharing stuff.

As they say, BTC/Crypto is in the long-term a win/no-win scenario. I am at an age 65 years that maybe

I have 25 years left and will be grabbing cute female nursing home aides asses and croak falling out of my wheelchair from the excitement. So risk, meh!

Also, if you live long enough, the only currency in a Nursing Home is stories. You got a robe/toothbrush/shaver/slippers and rich as hell or not it is all the same.

The only currency is stories. Thus BTC works...great story....BTC dumps....sad story...rich as hell or poor as hell ..if you live long enough that is how it shakes out.

So...I suppose...I could blow a lot of my stash in the future. I have to have a real 'reason' above the lifestyle I have now. I don't need to pass money down...my relatives

younger than me are set. I'm single. No debt. So again, circumstances are such where this 'risk' people talk about with me is all about how much 'profit' me or my heirs

could come away with, in reality. I likely won't need to touch such. So I will either be praised for HODL'ing too long or damn'd for selling too soon. But again, in

the great scheme of things at my age...I'm trying to make everything an adventure..and whatever happens with BTC/Crypto it has been a 'hell' of a lot of fun since I started

in 2013. So for now, letting it ride and using 'attic mining' to clean out the stuff in the attic for cash to go into BTC dust for stuff to do.

Again, some of this is with what I tell is tongue in cheek....like for example when LTC was worth $1.80 and I was selling for BTC and I mined 12,969 of them....yeah..we

start talking about 'missed boats' and it is a whole nother thread......or looking at ETH page on ICO and at what was it $300 BTC too cheap to buy 1,000 for 1 BTC in the ICO.

I've been left at the dock more times at my 'ship that was supposed to come in' than a girl in trouble waving at the ships at sea wondering if someone will see me.

So yeah, you are correct, Chump or Champ or Boom or Doom....I can afford to take more risks that may be prudent for anyone else or indeed even myself...but retirement

and boredom are dangerous things..thus the attic mining for dust endeavors Smiley

Good to have goals. Smiley

Brad
658  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 16, 2020, 12:11:51 AM
Anyway, I got back about 4 BTC buying it back from original 13 BTC I sold at $3,695 on 12/24/18 I think it was.
-ol
Brad, not trying to rub things in. But I'm curious how a savvy BTC guy like you who has been into BTC as long as you have sold near the exact bottom of the market?

Did you really think at the time that Bitcoin was going lower? Or was it for something else?

In hindsight it made sense. I was in HODL mode from real low (2013) till the ATH (what was it like 18k) and watching it go down to $3,965 seemed prudent to do.

I 'think' that the price went down to actually $3,400 per BTC. So again, with much, crying and tantrums like a 9-year-old child I sold.

So at least I learned my 'limits'.

Also, I had my original 100 BTC in 2015. I coulda/should just have 'stayed put' Smiley

But I did the whole ASIC mining and selling above and altcoins and the rest. If I sold BCH and BSV and the other forked

coins from this mess, that did not exist in 2015, I'd actually be ahead. Not sold such yet.

So with the above Altcoins etc all made off this 2015 move/groove/and hustle mining etc from 2015 till 2/14/19 when I stopped mining completely.

I would be right back at 100 BTC or a few coins over. Mostly due to BCH and BSV etc.

So what I SHOULD DO and am simply stalling is 'sell' those sh*coins to get back to 100 BTC and 2015 in that manner.

Of course in the last 3 weeks, most of my, I mean, really, sh*coins like LISK and Siacoin have doubled or more. Indeed all have. So I am a bit befuddled on how or

when to pull the trigger on this. One thing about Bitcoin and Crypto you usually look at the situation of price/buy a miner/hodl/ or whatever until it gets down to BTC and

Crypto's most basic question. Do I buy and HODL? Do I gamble on Equipment? Do I get this sh*tcoin or mine such or the other?

It is quite binary. Always distilled to one choice or the other choice.

So it goes. On all life-changing actions with the above BTC/Crypto/Sh*tcoins, I am fairly confident If I posted on Facebook my choices by flipping a coin from 2013 till now

I'd be no worse off then the half-ass guessing I've done in the past.

So now it is a fairly easy choice. I have narrowed my self-introspection on this in the following format.

My main 3 guessing games with BTC/Crypto at any given time/day/moment/and or year. Smiley

(1) BTC will (due to adoption level) drop to 1/2 of whatever the daily price is at the time you contemplate these  3 views. Again, the adoption level reached. And now at say

4x the price of gold would at this level act as a 'traditional stock market' investment on return year by year from this point on...ie...modest boring returns.

(2) BTC, taking whatever the current price is, as you ponder these questions. Will now, again due to adoption being reached say, from this price point on now goes

sideways in price and acts like a traditional investment stock market return year by year from this point onward..ie...modest boring returns.

(3) Same thought experiment as above with current price, whatever it is when you ponder these 3 coping mechanisms.  So this being the 3rd choice and current

price of BTC as you ponder this, BTC does its historical thing, price-wise and goes 'parabolic' and up 4x/8x/12x/18x current price, etc because of adoption as a store of value and use

in these uncertain times is NOT met yet. And BTC/Crypto will take on the adoption of gold or beyond as a store of value in the (coming IMHO) trying times. Why the heck not?

So for me, when it gets weird, I think of the 3 things above at whatever particular hour/day/time/year and/or BTC price. In that I've been in since 2013 and such, it seems much more

soothing to look at the 3 guesses above and just HODL. Anyway, how I make lemonade when BTC and crypto tend to speculatively go bat sh*t crazy using no logic I can fathom.

So the only real issue I have not DIRECTLY addressed yet (coward that I am) is when I am gonna dump BCH and BSV and my sh*tcoins to get back to a 100 BTC or so.

In that, in the last month, they have gone up 2x and 3x respectively on everything, so I am currently on the fence, on when to dump and convert such to BTC.

But I've made my peace with the great scheme of thing using my 3 part guessing game above. So again, everyone stumbles, it is how you pick your

self up and/or is the risk/reward worth it?

If the whole open-source decentralized BTC/Crypto universe goes *poof*. Replaced by National coins or Banker coins with the usual spin.

If they win this fight for the future of BTC/Crypto at least I can say I fought the good fight. Everyone has a limit they won't be pushed past. Above is my 'line in the sand' and

funky way of looking at stuff day to day as to not be 'too crazy' with this whole BTC/Crypto Speculation that I am involved in since 2013.

What we do on WO and in life with HODL'ing is called "Speculation". My status as of now. Of course, I cracked once and could crack again and sell some BTC. But for such to

occur I can state with absolute fact, that it is gonna have to be well, well, BELOW the $3,965 BTC price I cracked at last time. As to the rest of the above. That is why I call it a 'coping

mechanism' for something to do/justify be it wrong/or right.....guidelines.

So anyway, my 2 Shatoshi's worth on how I'm looking at things these days. Likely all is more than a bit delusional, but the framework works for me in both the dumping

of BTC be the price too low and I hope the same logic works when the price is too high by most accounts. Chump or Champ or Boom or Doom, we will be the first to know!

later

Brad
659  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 15, 2020, 08:38:08 PM


Currently, playing 'when to buy into more BTC game'...thinking I'll wait for a 'weekend weak dump' maybe?

Those currently who know my 'track record' on timing such, be sure to adjust your purchases accordingly, so you can

'mock' my 'timing' later.

(Hey, the wrong price at the wrong time is how I roll. On the other hand, if you HODL long enough ..it does not matter) Smiley

Brad

Well, I recall that you were selling items from your attic, and so you bought some BTC in parts of 2019 with that generated extra money.  

What is the source of the extra money that you have this time?  

Is it just extra savings that you have accumulated from your regular income over the past year or so?  

You did not want to buy BTC with that money earlier in 2019 as that money was coming in, but now, after BTC has gone up about 60% over the past two months you want to buy more BTC with that extra money that had been flowing in through the year?  The upwards BTC price movement, currently, is causing you to feel that you are underinvested in BTC because you are thinking that you might be able to get rich quick.. over the next 1-2 years?

I am not going to say that you are going to be wrong in that kind of 1-2 year period, even if it is unclear about whether you will benefit in the short run or have better buying opportunities in the coming weeks or months before the halvening.

These days, I prefer to think about any new money that goes into bitcoin to have at least a 4 year investment time horizon.  Of course, no problem if BTC


go shooting up from here, so then you would not have to stick with the 4 year investment time horizon thinking because once your injection of value is in profits you have options to pull it out at any time, but anyhow, since you and I should be in a similar position regarding having had already largely accumulated most of our BTC,  it seems strange to me that someone who had already largely accumulated in the 3 digits would be experiencing any kind of meaningful FOMO feelings after about a 60% BTC price appreciation in the past two months, not withstanding any inclination just to do a bit of dollar cost averaging investing from time to time, as money comes in, as heslo's above response suggests.

Caretaker for the estate. Money passes to me, I get some each month from the estate, I then watch manger of the estate and keep majority to pass on to nieces and nephews..that kinda

thing. The whole get around IRS thing using estate planning. Thus enough monthly income, that the crypto is not needed in retirement anymore. Or at least till we have another recession

or some such, thus the Bitcoin buying and the long HODL bet on such.

Also, attic mining! Smiley

I should call the nieces and nephews as I look at all the junk I likely can't toss (worth something) but likely will die the attic/storage. Thus call them up and say, "Come and

get YOUR crap out of my attic!" That would be the logical solution on stuff I'll likely hoard till then anyway. They inherit it then. Just do so now! They can sell it on eBay!

Just move the process up a little bit. That or me sell on eBay. (so boring to do).

Anyway, I got back about 4 BTC buying it back from original 13 BTC I sold at $3,695 on 12/24/18 I think it was.

I was pleased with sell when it went down to like to a low of $3,400 per BTC then. Er, now, not so much Sad But 4 BTC back is better than the full 13 BTC down from that sell!

So anyway only 9 BTC down from original scream like a 9-year-old girl sobbing sale back then. Thus I HODL for less drama now. Smiley

I also can't let go of the fact that IF BTC and decentralized crypto dies on the vine and is taken over by banks (the blockchain) and such...I don't imagine fees for banks will go down..even

though for every fee still would be the top 1/2 of 1% or whatever usual $$$ ripoff.

With that kind of centralized control of crypto along with the current banking and finance system still in place it

is hard to imagine a world NOT full of Banker/Elite Trillionaires..in about 10-15 years. This assumes IF like that 1 BTC whale and you can move 1 billion in BTC for $26 bucks.

Imagine banks and the current elite controlling all that centralized blockchain coin but still getting current legacy fees like traditional banks on such.

Give that 100 years and we'd be under Royalty and everyone would be 'serfs' and onward and upward into feudalism again, IMHO. It would be bad indeed.

I'm 65 years old. I maybe, if extremely lucky, live another 25 years and be 'pinching' cute nursing aides in the Nursing Home, by that point in time.

So WTF, take a chance and HODL already. I may NEVER get that full 13 BTC back that I am currently down 9 BTC...but I'm trying to nibble it away.

I SHOULD dump my sh*tcoins and BSV and BCH, that fell from the sky on their forks and make the last 9-12 BTC up that way. But currently confused

with those sh*tcoins all pumping, big time! Some of which like LISK and SIACOIN I'm utterly befuddled on. But that is the other option of my plan to 'recover' those

last 9 BTC. But in 20/20 hindsight, indeed $3,400 coin was dire, so I should pat myself on back and that I only sold 13 BTC.  So 9 BTC to go till recovery. Smiley

Knock Wood! I am buying dust here now that it is under 10k again, so it seems the BTC flavored kool-aid drinking I did in 2013 still has some magical effect. Smiley

later

Brad
660  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 15, 2020, 03:28:46 AM


Currently, playing 'when to buy into more BTC game'...thinking I'll wait for a 'weekend weak dump' maybe?

Those currently who know my 'track record' on timing such, be sure to adjust your purchases accordingly, so you can

'mock' my 'timing' later.

(Hey, the wrong price at the wrong time is how I roll. On the other hand, if you HODL long enough ..it does not matter) Smiley

Brad


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