Again, I fail to see how just adding dubious exchanges is gonna do anything for Fujicoin, if the fundamentals are that over 99% of all coins on the exchanges that carry Fujicoin

are currently not being bought in any manner. That is just beating a dead horse IMHO. I suspect that FJC will be delisted from many of all these exchanges in the near future

for lack of volume, or at least that is how it used to work, back in the day.

I'd like to be wrong, but IMHO, unless there is a way for someone to build a Siacoin decentralized storage aspect of all this...even with used equipment and simply just

break even on the electric say, to help this concept...I fear it is doomed. Too many coins and difficulty for use now and also the Sia-Tech ASIC maker aspect is way over the top vs their

real 'supposed' reason for all this. The decentralized and anonymous worldwide storage vision. I still think they are gonna pull a Butterfly Labs (in the USA) and go bankrupt. I see no

other option if they still have expenses from the Sia-Tech aspect and GRIN miner failures and are NOT making any more SC1 boards of any type for sale. They have to eat those

loses in some manner, IMHO. I'd love to be proved wrong, but with the 'deafening' silence going on, I feel that is not the case.

Brad

Congrats! Spray!

Seems I missed this by just a bit. I had $11,111.12 USD.

I await your next Q1 speculation thread of 2020, so I can double down and bet the above again!

(Daddy needs a trophy girlfriend...don't ya know..if it hits that price I will crack like an egg!)

Ah, dreams...

Brad

What you said above: "Things are actually a lot less profitable than they seem, unless bitcoin price breaks all expectations to the upside." That is the most mystifying thing that concerns me. With prices of BTC, in particular, this low, you'd think those big players (other than maybe Bitmain and Innsilicon who make the 'toasters') would be stepping back and buying BTC with the halving coming up in May 2020, I think it is. Instead, buying BTC seems to be very light, HODL'ing is kinda unchanged, but equipment from ASIC makers is flying off the shelves and way overpriced IMHO. So if you are betting on a BTC price pump that justifies your equipment..my question is why? IF you are not a big ASIC maker or Player like Bitmain.

Is the angle simply that this is NEWBIES that have skipped home mining and now are betting big on data halls and such mining, much like I was a clueless newbie in 2013 and just should have gotten BTC instead of hardware? Betting as we all did as newbies on equipment when we did not know any better, but these folk jumping in seem to have a lot more discretionary cash for dubious ASIC miners IMHO. Go figure?

2) They are so sure of (1) above that they are piling on the ASIC equipment hype/bandwagon, mainly because they see a big pump and ASIC machines for the non-mnfg's of such, just drying up when it all goes Moon? (I really, hope (2) is true) Also, been there and done that back in the day.

3) It is all just 'mad' hype without rime or reason and ASIC makers are (as usual) just playing all the miners buying such 7nm stuff now, like a frigging Banjo? Only the future will tell I guess.  But I find it frigging amazing the $$$ folks are now spending on ASIC's at the inflated prices for the meager amount of money daily after electric and fees for this 'gamble' IMHO. I mean in the Innsilicon post above, manufacturers would lower prices accordingly. I mean really (previous post) an Innsilicon A3 for $2k that loses more than a $1 a day out of the box?

Anyway, for the non-big Bitmain types, folks just have to really, really think that they have to get ASIC's now because the having is gonna pump BTC to the moon and the pool of such will dry up. Again, bigger balls than I have, but I sure hope these 'well-off' bigger newbies pushing ASIC sales all the luck that I can, because in no way will I mind missing this ASIC parade if it goes where they think it going. (I spend a lot of my life on and off Bitcointalk very confused on what the hell is going on with crypto. I mean frigging really?)

Good to have a hobby, befuddling though it may be.

Brad

Whoever this is that posts this you need a memorable tag line, you can use below, as I won't be the one to post first in 2020 on WO.

but right now after all the angst and drama of 2019, it would be:

Bitcoin: You merciless Bitch! (tm Searing)

That pretty much sums up my sense of betrayal from 2019.

Brad

Yeah, I agree, was not detailed enough, shooting from the hip and guessing on Bitmain and stuff. It is frigging obvious they have more than one angle in all this, confused though I may be the manipulation and huge money is obvious something is up.

As to the LTC scrypt-pow machine, the last  I looked LTC network was down more than 70% and the only real scrypt-pow miner(s) I know of are the Innosilicon ones  2 versions the lower version https://www.innosilicon.com/html/a6-miner/index.html they want $2k for....and according to this site:

https://www.asicminervalue.com/miners/innosilicon/a6-ltcmaster-1

at my 10c kWh, it loses $2.52 per day. Again, the only NEW units for scrypt-pow I know of. This was looking at this today 12/31/19. So unless BTC is gonna double or something and take LTC along with it, I'm not sure that LTC will actually make any progress in the next year on price or as usual 'iffy' development (except to follow bitcoin core). At this point, I doubt even Mimblewimble can do more than a sideways or modest increase in price and/or mining profits.

But I take your point on transaction fees not cutting it in the future and needing the price for BTC much higher even to work in the manner you state. But the last time I saw this much kool-aid drinking buying of equipment of dubious quality was when I was a newbie in 2013 and paid about 1/4 of my take home pay in 2013. I paid $5,131.80 for a KNC Jupiter Miner arrived on Oct 18th, 2013 and made I think ONE BTC a day at that date, sometime that date BTC was $150. I can only/hope/pray/guess that this is the same newbie kook-aid money that is NOT big guys on top, like Bitmain and others, but just newbie big money investors that were like home miners in 2013 and not knowing any better and  of them getting equipment, but of folk also newbies but with a lot more money than sense like the home miners of 2013. Man I hope their newbie faith is correct, or it will be quite the letdown for anyone getting equipment of dubious value in 2020. But you'd think that at this point in time, with halving coming up, there would be more BTC/Crypto buys instead of dubious mining. But then again, folk tried to tell me that in 2013 (and were likely right) so maybe this is just something you have to traverse as a miner of any size as you get into BTC/Crypto?

As usual with BTC/Crypto just flip a coin on what you want to do on any particular topic, be it HODL, or Trade or Mining, etc. Hell, I bet your odds are the same in most guesses, just using chance above instead of trying to figure out what is what!

Brad

Yes, I must 'always' remember Bitmain is 'evil'

It is a trap. I suppose IF they got the 5nm out to themselves FIRST they could be like KNC Miner was in I think it was 2014 and control the majority of BTC mining or at least if I remember right and went big money investors private on equipment and chips just for themselves and investors and not others. I suppose if the bet does not work for halving being anything more than flat they can compensate by getting large amounts of Bitcoin mining hash back in that the 5nm chips will go to there own data halls first. I guess if the bet is wrong, they could simply get 'clueless newbie big money investors' like KNC Mining did and go fully private. Also, if it all goes south like happened with KNC Mining..those same clueless big money kool-aid drinking investors are left holding the bag on the bankruptcy. Remember Bitmain can do a lot yet to rig the deck in their favor...IF as most of us believe BTC may survive and grow if not thrive in the next year or so. Bitmain IMHO is playing a long game of go big or go bust!

Bitmain: Evil hands are the devil's playground....is pretty much a positive motto with those guys.

Post on this thread then each month. Also, get the other Litecoin devs to frigging post on what they are working on...I assume devs cand do more than one fix

or update at a time besides just following bitcoin core on their updates. Again, IMHO, Mimblewimble is a start to 'differentiate" Litecoin from Bitcoin and other altcoins

But really, really, you have to pick up the pace and keep up with the PR. I mean I'm a frigging moderator on www.litecointalk.io for crying out loud! And even I'm

beyond frustrated with Litecoin direction and development. Convince me otherwise.

Yep the only info I've heard in months, is the main GRIN developer working on Litecoin 'says' he is making progress. This I think was on www.litecointalk.org

But even he only posts like every 2-3 months. Sigh!

I guess it is always prudent to keep in mind all Litecoin Whales are likely Bitcoin Whales first, in the great scheme of things. Litecoin is the unwanted redheaded step-child it seems.

Brad

Well, this may be a bit of a stretch on my $11,111.12 usd, what a lame ass-guess.

I plan on 're-submitting' this amount on every one of these in the future till:

(a) I win!

(b) The BTC price frigging blows by the above amount and I won't care a hoot about this contest anymore!

Again, less than 3 days to go!

So my odds are essentially the same as being Natalie Portman's Love Puppet! Good to see I've not lost any ground there.

Brad

Crap! Did the math on my above on having too much equipment depreciation and mining died on me this year and likely next year. Damn you IRS!
 
Anyway, from what I can tell I need to make $13.5k or so a year in ADJUSTED gross income for the next say 3 years counting this year in Home Business Mining or whatever to keep this 'bug a boo' at bay. Ok, this year I have it covered ...barely I think and will show a profit. I showed a loss in 2016. Will beat the 13.5K equip deduction hard floor in 2019. Whew! So I really, really kinda have to show a profit in 2020 via (1) eBay sales of crap in attic maybe $5k worth?  (2) mining (3) crypto trading (un-frigging-likely) (4) build a data hall someplace (but it would also have to make income and then I'd have more equipment/building depreciation) Ack! I suppose a person could (5) consult as a BTC expert *but hell, I don' listen to myself most times with crypto*

So thinking I may have to get equipment in 2020, and just NOT take the 25% equipment deduction, maybe not even take off electric. Just so I can show an adjusted Net Income from the business (with equipment deductions on the books till probably thru 2021) or I will be slapped into 'hobby mode' so fast by IRS it will make my 'head spin'. The IRS, alas, will not take an attic full of obsolete ASIC equipment from 2013 onward in my attic, by that point in time, as 'proof', it was not a hobby. If you read the IRS rules they also can say you are a 'hobby' if your business skills are 'unrealistic' and/or bad, or the business itself is 'dubious' at best. Ack! As far as I can tell it is NOT illegal for me to screw myself and not take deductions I'm entitled to, on electric from mining and/or equipment.

However, there is a fine line between, say 13.5K not used and exposing myself to IRS as a hobby, when and if I fall off the profit cart in 2020. I will have to do the math, however. It is not the first time, I've gotten equipment rather than more to IRS (how I got in this mess with the 70% or more BTC/Crypto crash in the frigging first place!) (Bitcoin: You merciless bitch!)

But again, probably gonna have to do something like this, very carefully, after halving, at the end of 2020, and used equipment maybe. It is all very dubious if this is gonna work or not. But at least I'm clear for 2019. But have no frigging idea yet besides eBay store sales on how the f*ck I can pull the same out in 2020. Anyway, advice welcome via PM or whatever. (I'm probably off-topic ..kinda sorta....but sh*t 5nm chips in Q1 has got to put a lot of us on Bitcointalk here in the same frigging boat as myself!) whatever, bitcoin always drama!

Brad

I agree. But it is not just the big-time miners and data halls. It is Canaan and Bitmain as well, taking huge risks on their on data halls and 5nm chips by Q1. I mean I kinda get

HODL'ing BTC at this time, before halving. But sh*t, it is like anyone Whale with really big BTC hoards has drunk the kool-aid and is balls to the walls on equipment.

Indeed I would expect such equipment to be above 3.25k at least! For what a 15% improvement over 7nm?

Also, from what I can tell, (correct my math please if I'm way off), you will need like a BTC price of at least $10,500 USD at halving, to kinda be at the same mining profitability

as we are now...or at least treading water.

Maybe it is just balls to the wall, beanie baby or dust and Charge of the Light Brigade...but it is way over the top, IMHO, among big-money players in crypto to be swarming like this.

Brad

It is impossible to make storage for this Siacoin decentralized system even with the most optimistic of 'used' equipment prices.....indeed last I looked it did not

pay if you got the equipment free! Thus for a decentralized anonymous storage method that relies on 'getting' people to use it, (large data halls and corporation

data halls) vs Amazon...unless you can build such a setup to use with Siacoin....you are limited. Thus lots of Siacoin speculation and difficulty and lots of equipment

they sold for BTC and had a 'nice' career for the last few years...but hey, unless people can build their system in a decentralized method as well and make even a

frigging 'modest' profit....well....no corporation data hall Tech ever got fired for using Amazon Cloud. It is gonna be a hard sell if that is your market for this.

But prove me wrong. Show me a system I can build for $5k to $10k with this in mind that I can even get 'close' to an ROI and I'll listen. Again, the storage vision

is years behind the equipment and amount of difficulty and Siacoin out there being traded, IMHO. Without catching that up in the manner above, also in a decentralized

way, it is all fairy dust/unicorn farts/ and rainbows! IMHO!

Brad

What do you need for an S9 (less the PSU) and shipping?

What I don't understand is the big risks and doubling down by Canaan and Bitmain on 5nm chips for the next set of ASIC miners, supposedly out in Q1 of 2020!

I mean from what I read, this is supposedly a 15% improvement in speed vs electric use. So at current BTC prices, this makes little or no sense to me.

Also, I'd imagine when they come out they will be in the $3k range and a 3 month pre-order too boot. This most likely will be after the BTC Halving before they arrive,

IMHO, so 'what'? Does this mean you are going to pay this kinda $$ for the same lousy ROI as you can get now with the current 7nm machines?

Really, why bother?

With no risk/pre-order/$$$ etc, etc, for every $1 BTC you get now 'supposedly,' you would get $2 BTC mining after the block reward downturn from

12.50 BTC a block to 6.25 BTC a block. I mean it seems a lot of development costs and effort just to find out once the units arrive you are basically

running in place!

So did I miss a memo? Why is everybody from Bitmain to Canaan to whomever, losing their frigging mind and buying ASIC's at these 'dubious' prices?

Are folks really, really, that frigging sure that the halving gonna DOUBLE the BTC price in a manner that makes these 5nm ASIC units make sense?

This is like the very wealthy in the Bitcoin Universe have just lost their minds after drinking the kool-aid and are running a amuck on the sugar high.

Again, for my above reasons, what the heck are they seeing that is escaping my notice on all this?

later

Brad

Same here..GMT shows it is 9 pm GMT on 12/28/19 but Yobit shows the date as 12/29/19. https://time.is/GMT

So obviously Yobit is not going by GMT as a timeline.

Are they using China Time for Midnight maybe?

Brad




Ok...just saw the above post...I'll see how this works out....should not effect how much I post...but even so it is damn confusing!

I think I can show a profit this year if I count my eBay sales (gasp!) and Signature Campaign BTC stuff  (gasp!) and the obelisk sale of equipment for exactly what I had in it and 1.25 million (dubious) SiaCoin. (meh!) Some other dust BTC from helping/fixing/consulting. Thus only 'costs' in that none of that is 'mining' would be maybe my Inet feed to the house... Thus MAYBE I could show something like $16k of Income - $1k or inet to the house or 15k income and thus kick my 67,500 equip costs down the road a bit maybe bleed ..what another 12.5% off of that this year...but EVENTUALLY I'm probably gonna show NO income and a loss within 5 years 2x ..thus I figgure if lucky I'm on the hook wrapping this up at say $15k or so when the IRS if that happens as a 'worse' case in say 2021, 2020 sure  did not look like a miners dream either. So I suppose the only thing I could maybe also knock out say 5-10k would be to sell 'self-employed" crap on eBay..to show income in 2020 as well.. but hell ..that is so boring I'd probably just pay the $15k to wrap up mining in say 2021 rather than that ..yech!

Also, REMEMBER to keep all your mining equipment you have slated for 5 years of depreciation ....you can't depreciate the tractor as a farmer don't ya know by selling the tractor the last 2 years of farming, because you guit and expect that to work out well with the IRS. If you are in our ASIC miner Kinda hole... Thus the attic is gonna be crowded with PSU's and bitmain and knc titans and the rest till ..what maybe 2021 at best or 2022? yech. Not sure why I'm bothering...if I was ever audited by the IRS I've done it by hand with paper since 2013...I was recently told by someone that was audited that they expect it in CVS format and excel and equipment invoices scanned and sent to them etc, etc. So the conversation of 'why' in 2017 you grossed over $100k and took equipment off and why I was too cheap to hire an accountant for your over 100k business...It would be quite the cluster explaining that the miner biz it not start out that way that year at $3.80 Litecoin, if I remember right. 20/20 hindsight by the IRS would be interesting in that on some years the tools they want a person to use in 2019 on a computer for keeping track did not exist before 2017 or 2018. Very likely I would pay a fine anyway for 'incomplete' records with yechy paper....and inconvenience to the IRS person anyway...

Well, anyway, unless something changes to make me some miner income in 2020 and/or 2021..I'll set that $15k aside for the day I have to wrap all this 'mining' up in a bow. I don't expect to see any redress in 2020 for mining that is for sure! Also, it would just ADD to my equipment deductions anyway ...if they never made bank...so better to just buy coin/start an ebay store/and/or just set aside for that day in the future..when the self-employed business is no more.

my issue they made a lot of ASIC equipment (but no more for SC) and they made a lot of coins, as a result, to speculate with...but the supposed purpose of

Siacoin as a decentralized anonymous file server worldwide storage network is way, way behind and just plain silly for cost/use, etc in its present form.

I still think Sia-Tech is gonna pull a ButterFly Labs in the USA and just walk with Bankruptcy. I don't see how they can pull off their 'supposed' network after losing

money on the GRIN hardware and other dubious stuff.

I'd like to be proven wrong on the storage coming up to speed..but just don't see any talk or any action as such at the same level as speculation hype on Siacoin prices

and difficulty nor on the movement of hardware for SC coin ASIC'S...and supposedly that was the whole purpose of SC coin but it has been lost in the dogpile.

Hmmm...what I suspected....but again if you are correct....last year was a loss...and thus this year will be a loss...so say I have like $20k left in equipment depreciation and no income...I am guessing I'd simply owe income tax on that $20k of equipment depreciation left at that point in time (guessing and assuming I have that much left?) Thus what with state taxes and fed..I'd be down $5k? On the other hand, again retired..so that 20k would be my only income...so if I remember 9K or some such off that would be say, more or less 12k income or I'd owe 3k ...anyway off-topic you get my drift?

But yeah, it seemed like I had to be caught on the ass end of this in some manner..if my only income mining has died..or else you could just start a business...kick-ass like heck the first 3 years say and then walk away from the last year or so of equipment depreciation. I too think this is unlikely. Likely as that my income is probably going to be soc sec at best on the year after (2021) this stuff shows up. I have to fess up (2020?) it likely won't amount to much as compared to buying miners (with all the risk) and showing income as a risk I guess Again, if as I assume..whatever you got off of gross income for equipment, (25%) is now suddenly taxed as income past the 2 years of losses (which is as it is now I guess). So my worst case is likely having to pay about $5k in taxes on that hobby unused equipment that I took as depreciation. fun times.

As to Mimblewimble ...with say GRIN...that is a wild ass big gamble on the Innsolicon Grin Machines...not a bet I'd take willingly...unless it meant just giving equivalent $$$ to the IRS.

Brad

p.s. I can't be the only one in this boat from last year and this year (2019) and looking into 3rd year of loss in 2020? Anyone?

Heh, I admire you 'big brass ones' but myself, unless they show some REAL progress in the decentralized storage option that is supposedly the 'heart' of Siacoin...

rather then-current 'speculation on the price of SC and/or miners per se...I'm gonna just stay out of this for now. Right now I'm basically in HODL mode for a pump

in SC prices, before I dump all or most. Color me 'skeptical'. I mean they are NOT even making ASIC boards that could be used with SC for the Cheap DCR-1 boxes

sitting out in the world. But mainly, put up or shut up on the decentralized storage part of the project or the whole SC coin endeavor is gonna fall into a black hole, IMHO.

Brad