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1621  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Does martingale really works? on: June 14, 2014, 08:58:40 AM
Your have to ask doog for graphs regarding the accounts most I. Profit but the main one that comes to mind from last year was Nakowa. I think he managed to get up a couple of thousand at his peak but if I remember properly he left eventually with a couple of hundred if doog's sleuthing is right. Don't quote me though, you'd get more reliable information googling Nakowa.

Yes , thats what i want to know that nakowa actually won how much from JD and behind him who win the most ?

dooglus estimates Nakowa's winnings @ 10k BTC :


I don't have exact numbers, because I don't know for sure which accounts were his.  But I estimate that he risked 2.5 million BTC and won 10k BTC.  The 2.5 million he risked should have netted the house 25k BTC.

So the current profit is 35k BTC short of where it should be, due to the BTC he won (10k) and the BTC he should have lost and didn't (25k).

1622  Economy / Gambling / Re: MakeBTC.org is the best passive BTC income invest on: June 13, 2014, 11:06:12 PM
I can not open the site.
whether there was an improvement on the server?

The owner went AOK, he (most probably) ran away with the money
1623  Economy / Gambling / Re: Where should I go to Bitcoin bet on the Soccer World Cup? on: June 13, 2014, 11:04:35 PM
You can now bet on the world cup games at https://pocketrocketscasino.eu/sports
More markets/sports and features coming over next few days.

Ok I am checking all of those

An interesting ssite would give a big deposit bonus, has good odds and has been around for at least 8months
1624  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 13, 2014, 11:03:18 PM
its worth noting that well over 30K coins have been dumped on the market in the past 24hour.

not sure why people think the FBI's coins are so scary

... because it is the US Government who is selling them.  Wink

The official FBI address still has all the BTC

https://blockchain.info/address/1FfmbHfnpaZjKFvyi1okTjJJusN455paPH
1625  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Does martingale really works? on: June 13, 2014, 11:02:01 PM
First, I love how martingale charts look. A perfect martingale will be a straight line with periodic drops of varying magnitude, where deeper drops are exponentially more rare.

Second, is there any way to calculate the probability of a bust on a martingale procession while taking into account the ever-increasing bankroll it provides?

I think it wouldn't be exactly straight, even connecting the peaks, because a:
  -1 -2 +4
and a
  -1 -2 -4 -8 -16 +32
both add 1 to the total bankroll, but take different numbers of steps to do so.

I've seen people play like:
 -1 -3 -7 -15 -31 +63
before, which *does* lead to a perfect straight line, since the net gain is equal to the number of steps.  The 6 numbers in the previous line sum to 6.  It's equivalent to starting a new martingale of size 1 each bet:

First bet, bet 1 (and lose)
Second bet, bet 2 for the first martingale, and 1 for the new one you're starting: so 3 in total
Third bet, bet 4 for the first, 2 for the 2nd and 1 for the new one: 7 in total
...
Sixth bet: bet 32 for the 1st, 16 for the 2nd, ..., and 1 for the new one and this time we win, finishing off all 6 concurrent martingales at once.

I think the first person I noticed playing this way was the owner of the BTC Guild poll, Eleuthria.  It didn't work out too well for him in the end, and unfortunately I can't remember his account number to show the chart.

Oh, you're right. Normal martingale is only a straight line if you ignore the losses Tongue

That's an interesting variation on the martingale, too. It busts much quicker, but it's also a faster earner. Maybe something to try with tiny amounts.

Well, nothing too special. Really just like a "one step quicker to lose" version of martingale.

With regular martingale the bets are 2n (starting at n=0): 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32...
The other is 2n+1-1, so it's 1, 3, 7, 15, 31...

Sure it's faster because you the bets are risen faster. Why stop there, you could choose to bet 1, 10, 100, 1000, 10000... an even faster earner and faster loser. Or bet n factorial; 1, 2, 6, 24, 120, 720... (exponential growth is for the basic martingaler, boooriiing)

I myself think it's too slow losing all my money with these noob strategies, betting strategies based on sequences given by primitive recursive functions are super boring anyway. The Ackermann function can give nice sequences to follow, use it to your needs, that's a real pro tip. You make good dough if you keep winning!

You make good dough if you win  Grin

I think martingale can be funny because you have a false sense of winning each time : +1 +1 +1 +1 ect. until you bust Wink which will happen sooner than late
1626  Economy / Gambling / Re: Listing Betting Sites Total # Of Bets on: June 13, 2014, 10:17:21 PM
What about sport betting?

Will you make a list for those sites as well? It could be useful
1627  Other / Off-topic / Re: IF YOU HAD 1,000,000 DOLLARS WHAT WOULD YOU BUY??? on: June 13, 2014, 10:16:50 PM
I would spend it on a forever cruise and never have to worry about anything.

You can buy a nice appartement on a fancy cruise ship that sails around the world all year long but it costs a few millions for a nice flat if I remember correctly; they may have smaller apartments for 1m$ Grin
1628  Economy / Micro Earnings / Re: Win free Bitcoins every hour! on: June 13, 2014, 10:15:07 PM
Guys, I have a question:

Where Freebitco.in take Bitcoin to pay us?

Do you think we should know? I remember wetsuit said where he had been buying bitcoins (at Bitstamp, if I'm not mistaken)... Roll Eyes

Yes he said he used to buy every month but now he supposedly buy more often so the number of free satoshis moves quickly with the BTC market price
1629  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Best Way to Earn btc? on: June 13, 2014, 10:13:56 PM
Everyone wants to know the best way to earn bitcoins...
So my Question is that can a User earn about 0.01 a day or more or a bit less..?

Unless you insist on being paid in BTC, the best way to earn bitcoins is to get a job and buy them. In the U.S., minimum wage will earn more than 0.01 BTC an hour.

Well i m not from U.S ...

I want a job here if someone help me .. Tasks .. Crowdflower tasks sucks ... tasks are not come for long time .. and they pay very less..

So any another idea..

You can still learn a job, get some work experience, if you don't start you can't get anywhere
1630  Economy / Gambling / Re: Where should I go to Bitcoin bet on the Soccer World Cup? on: June 13, 2014, 10:08:55 PM
Ok thanks for your answers, I will check both websites
1631  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Does martingale really works? on: June 13, 2014, 10:08:09 PM
Another in the anecdotal series of "Does martingale really works?"

This time I present evidence for the "no, it bloody doesn't!" side of the argument:




It would be cool to be able to see the biggest martingales lost for the day or the week either on jd first page or in the blog

They sold expedia for 100m$

I think they sold their travel company *to* expedia.

To know the site profit without the Nawaka winnings you just add the Nakawa winnings to how much has been won, his final winnings are believed to be in an order of magnitude of 3000BTC if I remember correctly

I don't have exact numbers, because I don't know for sure which accounts were his.  But I estimate that he risked 2.5 million BTC and won 10k BTC.  The 2.5 million he risked should have netted the house 25k BTC.

So the current profit is 35k BTC short of where it should be, due to the BTC he won (10k) and the BTC he should have lost and didn't (25k).

That's probably where you're getting the '30000' number from.

Oh ok he supposably won 10k!

If he didn't have 25k to lose, he wouldn't have lost 25k though so it only represent a very fictive expected gain
1632  Economy / Gambling / Re: SealsWithClubs.eu | Largest Bitcoin Poker Site | No Banking | Fast Cashouts on: June 13, 2014, 09:59:28 PM
Wow... Support needs to fix the chat. I'm absolutely floored then when a player is all in the chat is still enabled. Not only that it's common practice for players not involved in the hand to speak about what the players involved in the hand might have.

Since when is this accepted at any poker table anywhere in the world?

Simple rules, When a player is all in chat needs to be disabled. If possible, when a player folds they should have their chat blocked as well.

Am I missing something? Am I the only player that feels this way?

It is not acceptable to tell the cards players had when not involved in a hand or to talk about hands. Admin had warned people about doing this previously maybe its time to do so again. Its not as easy as you think for the site to program no chat on hands in progress as we are talking about mavens software which is not easily reprogamed though many positive changes have been made ie you can choose where you want to sit by clicking on a seat     tables are able to be resized not sure if something like no chat during hands could be implemented.

What you can do though is copy the chat and send to support@sealswithclubs.eu and I am sure the site would reprimand offending palyers as absolutely not allowed to disclouse cards when not involved in a hand that is an egregious tos violation. Even talking about a hand player might have or speculating is a clear violation and should be reported to support with a copy of the chat.

SwC is the wild west of pok.er but people who do that should get banned but they can easily open a new account
1633  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 13, 2014, 09:55:22 PM
Why the HELL someone with Petahash needs pool at all? They should have been mining solo since start.

They removed 1.5 petahash but they have more; they get a way lower variance but you would think they should mine alone if they don't have having a few bad weeks which they shouldn't
1634  Economy / Gambling / Where should I go to Bitcoin bet on the Soccer World Cup? on: June 13, 2014, 07:52:22 PM
I am betting on cloudbet but I don't want to risk it all on one site and I only got a 0.2 bonus so I prefer depositing on an other website where I can get a bigger bonus
1635  Economy / Gambling / Re: Primedice.com | 600M+ Bets | 350k+ BTC Wagered | Free BTC | 1% Edge | Instant on: June 13, 2014, 05:27:55 PM
Let's bet 0.1 Grin Grin Grin

It's a lot for me low or high?

high of course..


657343388   boumalo   17:40   0.10000000   2.00000   >50.5   50.96   +0.10000000


Hehe thanks Wink Let's cash out 0.18 and loose the 0.02 Grin
Icey is good tipster here for all gambling's now I am also looking for his tips in his own thread for next few days 

What thread are you talking about?

I am looking here but I don't find any thread about tips https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=78093;sa=showPosts

I can't say his tip didn't help, I usually always play "low" but if I played "low" I may have won anyway Grin
1636  Economy / Micro Earnings / Re: Win free Bitcoins every hour! on: June 13, 2014, 05:24:45 PM
The ad button is too close to the hi and lo buttons. Gets frustrating when your playing and you hit the ad button.

I have moved it down a bit so that should not happen anymore.

The Multiply service desperately needs automatic betting... Cool
Yes some time I also need this I can play on some other sites now please add this feature here on this site also

I bet it will arrive soon Grin

wetsuit is very reactive when it comes to implementing new features
1637  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: My buddy is getting a divorce. Can the court seize half of his bitcoins? on: June 13, 2014, 05:23:49 PM
Bitcoin is non-seizable right?
And what if he says that he lost it all on a gamble site out of misery?

You can make up tons of things to not let her have the money tbh.

If the judge thinks he lies he will be in trouble and he will need to pay, you cannot always get away by lying
1638  Local / Produits et services / Re: just-dice.com on: June 13, 2014, 05:23:05 PM
J'ai fait un calcul sur le volume de jeu des 14derniers jours et on arrive à un rendement espéré de 18%/an; à vous de décider si le risque en vaut la chandelle, tout en sachant qu'il y a un risque légal si vous êtes résident français

N'oublie pas d'ajouter les intérêt cumulés. Refais le calcul avec 52 semaines dont les intérêts s'ajoutent "en cascade".
Avec David on arrivait dans les 50%.
Et perl avait corrigé à 56%
De plus et c'est très important à prendre en compte, il y l'"incident Nakawa" qui a pas mal fait tomber le rendement (depuis, Chris a pris des mesures). Certes, ce type de cygne noir peut se reproduire (voire pire), mais la mesure qu'a prise Chris devrait réduire les chances que ça arrive. Si on considère qu'il n'y aura pas un nouveau Nakawa dans un an, alors le rendement est bien plus que 56 %. Sur les trois semaines où j'ai été assez discipliné pour faire l'exercice, j'étais arrivé à près de 200 % d'intérêts en extrapolant sur un an - mais trois semaines, c'est très peu, je le concède.

Pour la légalité de JD : techniquement, on n'y parie pas de l'argent, puisque Bitcoin n'est pas de l'argent en France. Si ça devait changer, ce serait différent.

Tu as dû tomber sur trois semaines où il y avait eu énormément de mises car sur les deux semaines sur lesquelles j'ai fait le calcul j'ai trouvé 18%/an                     
1639  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Does martingale really works? on: June 13, 2014, 04:37:55 PM
What's the average yearly profit (well, sort of, since JD is less than one year) on JD? I heard of 56% with coumpounded interests.

I thought dooglus said 43%, but I can't find the quote. He did say that bets were limited to a profit of 1% of the bank until the bank got knocked around by the Nawaka incident. He then cut the max bet so that you can't make a profit over 0.5% of the amount invested.

Tom Breitling describes a similar story in his book. As you may know, the Golden Nugget casino was Steve Wynn's original investment in the 1970's. Although Steve sold his corporation in 2000, the Golden Nugget was kept for nostalgia. In 2003 Tom and his partner, Tim, decided to purchase the Golden Nugget and bring back a little of 1950's glamour.

Tim wanted to raise the max bet at the casino to attract whales. It worked for about 10 months, then a big gambler walked in and won $8.5 million in two weeks (the story is posted on his website).
http://www.tombreitling.com/book/
That was enough to seriously injure profits for the quarter and scare their investors. They had no choice but to reduce that possibility by limiting large bets.

Tim and Tom only owned the casino for a year, before selling it to Landry's corporation, operators of several well known restaurant chains. The important point is that while Tim and Tom were certainly very successful (they sold their previous business for $100 million at age 30), there are always people out there with a lot more money.

If you want to know the profit leaving out the Nawaka incident, it might be interesting, but I think it would be a mistake to think that something similar is now impossible. Reducing the max bet greatly reduces the probability, but it is never impossible.

They sold expedia for 100m$ EDIT : they sold their travelling business to expedia for 100m

"But that’s only the start. Breitling and Poster use their earnings to buy the legendary Golden Nugget in downtown Las Vegas, nearly get taken down by a high roller on a $25 million winning streak, overcome a series of adversity, and a little more than a year after buying the iconic hotel sell it at another profit of more than $100 million. “A great read, and a true rags to riches American success story,” Ben Mezrich, the bestselling author of Bringing Down the House, describes it. “The narrative goes down smooth as a good scotch, with a rhythm that would have made Sinatra proud!”"

To know the site profit without the Nawaka winnings you just add the Nakawa winnings to how much has been won, his final winnings are believed to be in an order of magnitude of 3000BTC if I remember correctly EDIT : he probably won around 10,000BTC from JD
1640  Other / Off-topic / Re: Answer the question above with a question. on: June 13, 2014, 04:24:05 PM
Surely that depends on how you drive it?

Surely I drive it as it was intended to be driven, do I not?

Isnt that such an 80s way of driving it then??

I think not as the 80s were times of expensive fuel and the car was built in times of nearly free gas and even a few "no speed limit" highways, was it not?

Lol, expensive fuel do you Americans truly know the meaning of expensive fuel compared to the Europeans?

Europeans pay the the same price or only a little more for the fuel itself but do pay significantly higher fuel taxes and is that not the cause of the disparity in price?

Yes that is the case in the disparity, but we never see our taxes separate its always included. Do you think its scaring governments the thought of losing tax money to electric cars???

No because electric cars cannot replace internal combustion engined cars for most real-life applications, do you not agree?

I disagree since most journeys completed everyday are well within the range of current electric cars. What would your ideal way of travelling to the shops??

In my case the "shops" are 20 miles away (33km) and accessible primarily only by high speed motorway for which most electric cars are not suited, right?

Electric cars can go on motorway as far as I know; we have to be careful about what is supposadly green though, right?
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