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What is in update 2.3.1?
Bugfix?
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Now there are short term benefits as well. EMA is a non-sentimental way to gauge the market. We had a discussion here several days ago, when BTC was reaching 200 and it looked like it would ebb about getting out and trading for Fiat, but the bot kept us all in the market and we are now hitting 400.
You've got me on that one. I turned on the bot and left the settings on the suggested settings (no reverse ema or anything). Lets hope it handles a crash very well. I have noticed that the more volatile the market, the shorter your period of updates should be. Currently using 30 minutes. Though a few weeks ago when it barely moved I would have used 2 hours. Any comments on this point, Pablo? =======[Discount Code for Butter (10% off)]========= https://butter-bot.com/?r=f5a17f5bUse my referal code cause' im sooo cute!    You'll get an extra month free, it's all on me! |
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I'm using the trial, hope things go well. Might buy the bot if they do.
You can have a 10% off your purchase if you use my code (plus an extra month for subscription). =======[Discount Code for Butter (10% off)]========= https://butter-bot.com/?r=f5a17f5bUse my referal code cause' im sooo cute! You'll get an extra month free, it's all on me! |
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I appreciate your point of view, and completely agree that you are chasing the trade and will most likely not be filled (big issue with stop-losses). I'm actually agreeing with you right now, there isn't much use for a stop loss during a big and fast crash like that.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts, nice chat!
That said, Butter is the most valuable single tool I now have in my arsenal. Not because of the trade bot (which I have already stated is the best one I have found), but because of the back-testing engine. In the past, I would spend weeks with a grease-board charts designing and testing systems, trade points and theories. I would come up with a better trading strategy in my mind and have to spend dozens of hours proving or disproving it's worth using historical data. Butter's ability to do this in seconds is like finding the Thor's Hammer of trading.) I am guessing you don't yet know of https://cryptotrader.org?=======[Discount Code for Butter (10% off)]========= https://butter-bot.com/?r=f5a17f5bUse my referal code cause' im sooo cute! You'll get an extra month free, it's all on me! |
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Problem, I already reset my PC last night this morning. Do the console logs survive across resets?
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"Flash-crash" protection:
When trading manually, the best protection in a flash-crash is to walk away & go eat dinner. If you join the panic buy/sell, you lose. You are _always_ far ahead when you wait and catch the rebound caused by the heavy market pressure. I have had great success programming the bot to do this automatically. It often means slowing the trade down; you need to wait for the snap-back.
I think you are referring to the notion of market corrections. Any trend that is too one sided is bound to retrace. (applies in both bull and bear markets)  (snapshot from last night) For example, the MtGox Exchange is overbought across the long term ranges. It seems to be primed for a massive correction pretty soon.========================== While I am on the topic of retracements. Last night I used B-Bot in a new configuration and I noticed that it kept trying to buy repeatedly after it already bought using all available funds (whatever was made available to it). It appears that it repeatedly sends emails even though it has already used all available funds. The same was true of selling. It kept sending messages that the sell trigger was reached despite already having sold everything available to it. =======[Discount Code for Butter (10% off)]========= https://butter-bot.com/?r=f5a17f5bUse my referal code cause' im sooo cute! You'll get an extra month free, it's all on me! |
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Stop-loss:
EMA cross-over trading _is_ stop loss. It is designed to keep you in a bull market and out of a bear market. Attempting to "add" a stop-loss to this system creates a double-negative and short-circuits the system. You will lose. If you try to bail on your position as the crash occurs, you are selling against the pressure and you will lose much more then if you wait for the snap-back.
I am using reverse EMA strategy so I am unsure if it applies. " If you try to bail on your position as the crash occurs, you are selling against the pressure and you will lose much more then if you wait for the snap-back." I'd also like to point out that some of the same arguments are being used in reverse on either side of the issue. If a flash crash happens says side A, then EMA will keep get you out of it. There is no guarantee the market will go up again we are told. People pointed out that there is no guarantee that the price will recover. Alright, that is probably true. Now the same point is being used (the snap back "will happen") as-if it were guaranteed.... Perhaps we need to all get on the same page. =========================== Either way, I understand both positions to the best of my ability. =======[Discount Code for Butter (10% off)]========= https://butter-bot.com/?r=f5a17f5bUse my referal code cause' im sooo cute! You'll get an extra month free, it's all on me! |
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I'm still not getting it. I trust that you're the expert & that what you say must be the truth of the matter, but I'm failing to understand it myself.
If I sold at 90 following a rally that peaked at 100, and it either goes to 20 or 80, either way the bot will recognize the bottom curve & buy after the peak. I don't get why it sometimes waits to buy at a bottom curve that somehow got to be higher than the sell point. Why didn't it buy at the first lower peak point after the high point in the cycle where it sold in the first place, because it wasn't far below the sell point enough maybe?
How do these conditions where it trades at a loss develop anyway? Is there another way to protect against being nickel & dimed then by adding 'always profit' logic, since that's unadvisable?
I know you've mentioned that there's a new improved trading engine to be released in the near future. Will it be any better than 70/30 loss/profit? I'd be interested in hearing about how exactly it's been improved.
I guess the only way to prove him "wrong" is to code it and see if it works in practice. (I am of the NginUS opinion) The big question is how intervene when butter bot wants to do something which we can call an unnecessary trade. (always at a profit) ------------------ The first idea that comes to mind is to watch B-Bots stats and make a trigger that identifies an unnecessary trade. The next idea is to probably to use B-Bots ability to be disabled as a method of keeping it from doing an unnecessary trade. Perhaps re-enabling B-Bot again when the circumstances are within what someone could define "at a profit". ------------------ The obstacles that come to mind are what the side effects are to disabling b-bot at random times and then re-enabling it. I have no idea if b-bot will keep working right after an interruption. (would need to be tested) The user would have to input their settings as to what are the trigger buy/sell values for the EMA separation. (not hard) This is just so that the add-on would trigger before B-Bot does it's trading routine. The question that comes to mind is whether B-bot first trades and then updates it's graph or if it writes the graph first and then executes the trade. Dunno how much of a delay there might be. =======[Discount Code for Butter (10% off)]========= https://butter-bot.com/?r=f5a17f5bUse my referal code cause' im sooo cute! You'll get an extra month free, it's all on me! |
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v1.07.92 Beta Released!
Added last 10 min trades bids volume percent indicator.
What does the percentage represent? (Nice work on the recent upgrades!) |
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Ok, I just saw your last post saying how smaller intervals help, so I feel better since I use a 30 minute window.
Thanks!
After running lots of back test I found that your update interval should change depending on how volatile the market conditions are. The less volatile they are, the longer the period should be. The more volatile they are, the shorter the period should be. Mismatch and you'll lose money on more frequent trading due to "noise" as pablo put it. If you want some reverse EMA settings try: Short/Long EMA 21/19 or 17/15 =======[Discount Code for Butter (10% off)]========= https://butter-bot.com/?r=f5a17f5bUse my referal code cause' im sooo cute! You'll get an extra month free, it's all on me! |
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I began trading crypto earlier this year and found it difficult to track the movements and trends (especially overnight), so I've downloaded the Butter Bot demo and am intrigued by the moving averages, tweaking settings, etc.
I'm currently running the 30 minute trade frequency setting, but I'm wondering what would happen if there is to be another crash in the BTC market similar to April (which I suspect is coming soon). I was sitting in front of my computer when it happened in April, and as I recall, the market went from 260 USD down to 50 USD or so in the matter of 15-30 minutes. If my trade frequency is set to 30 minutes, isn't it possible that the bot could entirely miss the start and finish of the crash and I'd end up selling at 50, if this were to happen again? YES. An ideal quality of a bot certainly is to remove the element of human emotions, as a poker might put it, "going on tilt" and making bad calls, but in the event of a crash such as the one described above, would it be best to take manual control, or should Butter Bot on a 30 minute trade setting be able to cover something like this? I'm not afraid to take control if I have to (and have the opportunity), but I'm just wondering if one could depend on a bot to ride through something like that? Thanks in advance for any feedback, and I have been enjoying the trial so far  I asked this question earlier and the only feature that should (in theory) protect you is the TSL. Though as pablo mentioned earlier in this thread it would first sell as it detects the crash and then turn the bot off. So I am not sure if TSL is useful. Would it do it (sell) after the next update period of 30 minutes? It would seem it would. (Pablo can clarify) Someone posted a formula that addressed the [potential] issue a few pages ago. But Pablo asked them if they were a mathematician and the discussion did not seem to evolve from there. [unfortunately] =======[Discount Code for Butter (10% off)]========= https://butter-bot.com/?r=f5a17f5bUse my referal code cause' im sooo cute! You'll get an extra month free, it's all on me! |
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Ok, so we are helping Josh with a realistic March 2014 shipping.
What will be the projected network hash rate?
What would will an under performing Monarch make in March 2014?
What are these Monarch's going to need PSU / PDU and control or back plane wise?
Given what we have seen in the past from BFL there is a lot of unanswered design questions here and with little or no guidance on what the finished product will be able to do, what it will cost in terms of 'accessories' to get this Monarch hashing for the user seems to me to be a good place to question this design.
Failure to plan.
Plus,you know BFL will miss thier power targets by at least 3 fold,a leopard can't change his spots In this case the leopard had his spots burned into it's body. Time to get a new pelt. ( or a peltier) |
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The current expected date for our chips out of the foundry is early December. Obviously nothing will be shipping in November. Projected target is end of December but that is, as usual, subject to change. When I have more info I will share it. Thus, according to Josh's own figures as elaborated on, HashTrade shouldn't expect delivery no earlier than late March, with all subsequent pre-orders placed after that wall purchase not being shipped till mid April, at the extreme earliest. There is no way that BFL can sugarcoat an earlier shipping date, for it would 100% negate the already timeline stated by Josh, now push backed proportionally. ~TMIBITW You know BFL will just gut a ton of early Monarch orders and ship them out to the guy with 1 million dollars. Besides....they never told anyone what their initial lot size was to begin with. We will call it...shrinking the Lots expectations to cover the first Monarch customers. Ol' Josh is already saying December/January when before he was saying November/December. November seems to have gone poof and no one can get him to remember...apparently. |
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@ Clark
If you need anything like more details please let me know!
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Could you find a way to separate the Text output from the graphs? Depending on the graphed lines it can make it sometimes hard to read.
Or better yet, a "console mode" where we can specify the kinds of output we would like to see as text only. (instead of graphed)
Where would the text go? Could you describe "console mode" more clearly? Hi, I made a mock-up of what I would love to see "ideally".   The console text would ideally be static (non-scrolling) so that you can easily read the state of the market at a glance. I did a mockup to give you a rough idea where folks could add indicators or other factors in whatever specific order they need. =================================== But I would be fine with a simple separator (if the above too hard to code) to keep the graph from drawing onto/behind/ontop of the text.  |
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Feature request: Is there any possibility that we could set custom colors for Indicators? We can do this for the main chart but not for everything else.... Edit: Another feature request: Could you find a way to separate the Text output from the graphs? Depending on the graphed lines it can make it sometimes hard to read.  Or better yet, a "console mode" where we can specify the kinds of output we would like to see as text only. (instead of graphed) |
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Can u make a bot that starts at say X and if the value drops 2$ you buy and if it increases 4$ you sell?
Hi flyboy. That sounds good in theory, but we can't always pick the direction the market will go in. For example, if you sold after a $5 price increase, sure you lock in a small profit, but what if the price kept going up? What if it was a huge movement, like a $15 increase? What if a new bubble forms? You wouldn't want to be left behind. That is a dangerous mindset for a trader. What if it goes higher... I would advise people to have a realistic idea of what they want vs what they need. Then hash out over what period of time you'll actually be content if you receive that BTC or USD. ------------------------- If you have met your trading goal for the moment, then you should cut it off and reel in your profits..rather than wait for a riskier "what if" scenario where it doubles your profits. People who wait to see if it will go higher usually lose a ton. Take what you can get and you'll cut out a ton of those risky "wait-and-see losses" from your future. Someone asked earlier in the thread that the price was 220+ and whether they should manually sell...Instead it looks like they let the bot sell them out at 170 or 180 instead by second guessing their own judgement about the situation. I felt like asking that person why would you not call it, reel in a certain profit amount in the here-and-now rather than wait for a "maybe-profit" in the (unknown) future? In the same way going down, how do we call the bottom? What if it drops $5 quickly, you buy, and then moves back upwards even higher (called a bear trap) and leaves you on the wrong side of the trade? If it drops 5$ and you buy in, why would you want to buy in again at an even higher price? Now you must either buy in at a higher price, or hold the cash, hoping it eventually goes back down. Not sure what this is about.... If you are after cash and not BTC then retaining value is what is important. If you convert 10,000 USD in a buy in(of BTC) at 130$ and you sell it (BTC) off at 137$ (for USD)....while the market goes way up to 220$, you still have the same amount of USD cash. Even if you buy BTC at 180 you still have the same value (10,000+ in USD). As long as the BTC valuation goes up you will always win extra USD as growth happens. You'd only lose if the BTC devalues against the dollar. (goes down in price) At that point you'd be better off converting your BTC to USD before it get back to 180 or less. As it continues to go down (lets say into the 150$ territory it only gets cheaper to buy BTC. As long as you protect your value in USD it would be pretty hard to lose in most circumstances. The bot watches 24/7 and attempts to mathematically put us at an advantage to profit long-term using exponential moving averages. When the market ranges between values, say $170 and $175, most trades won't be profitable and it's frustrating to watch. But when the price makes a move and begins to move strongly upwards or down, the bot ensures we are on the correct side of the trade to profit from the trend.
For example, my bot bought in correctly yesterday and rode the $10 price rise. The three trades before, however, were a small loss. The hope is that gains on the larger trends will make up for the smaller losses.
This bot (nor is EMA) good for largely unchanging exchanges with high fees. |
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Can u make a bot that starts at say X and if the value drops 2$ you buy and if it increases 4$ you sell?
Hey , Do you mean a bot that will buy if the price halves and sell if the price doubles? There is a lot that can for wrong with that, we have been discussing reverse EMA for a while that does something similar (but better) with EMA indicators. Maybe something we can pursue when we get some free development time. Got a lot going on right now . Pablo. I use reverse EMA strategies and they are quite a bit more logical (from a human perspective I guess) in the profit area. |
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