I expect it to die or at least become dormant, yes. What I was trying to say is that it may go out almost invisibly. The volume numbers are misleading. They can effect subjective impressions, but not supply and demand. I think price is low enough now so that demand is largely insensitive to price. Even stronger: Most of the non-churn demand is very inelastic. But the fiat turnover will have to decline as the coins are drained by the arbitrageurs, and the impact of arbitrage on the free market will be limited to that quantity of supply. I would expect it to decline very suddenly, and perhaps resume intermittently as the last few elastic coins get shaken out in spurts, then the supply impact would end completely. Because this will be invisible to us, it will just be a slight supply cliff, mostly lost in the noise, visible primarily in price decoupling. The sentiment reaction may be early or late. If it takes a long time for price decoupling to become obvious, and the exchange remains operational, sentiment may be very late indeed, and the reaction almost invisibly slow.
Very well put aminorex, I have been thinking this over for the last few days and I think what your saying is spot on. The fact is that if the external volume is fake(or increased by being 0 fee) it obfuscates the demand and the amount of coins in China even more. I agree that the decoupling has begun to a degree and people waiting for that to happen will likely be too late. All this hinges on the belief though that the majority of coins are not in China which I think will be the case due to the 4 months of one way arbing as the Chinese have sold out. |
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$50k or 100 BTC isnt that meaningful when you have 20,000 BTC my friend. Its like 0.5% of your stash, I bet you would take a bet you thought you would win for .25BTC on a 50BTC stash.
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90 days thats an eternity!  |
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Pump mode engaged ?
Edit: Same weird walls as yesterday put it above market price then pulled after a few people buy infront
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Because he's pleading guilty. Ah okay got it. Small tip for all you drugs entrepreneurs out there: may be traveling to or residing in the US is a bad idea  Im fairly sure thats why but reading it again its a bit more ambiguous "In addition to that, federal agents are asking to keep the $3,030,000-worth of Bitcoins that the government collected from Slomp, and which have already been converted into cash." That makes it sound like maybe they did convert it to cash before he said he would plead guilty. Perhaps its because he's not a US citizen then. |
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Because he's pleading guilty. |
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Only 4 more activity points and I can join right?
Yeah, thats right. It might take still up to 2 weeks thought. 29th I think |
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Huobi rising while Stamps falling, we saw a $20 or so gap between the two yesterday (GMT) and over night the gap has been closed to $6.
Chinese coming to the West. 5k walls soon Maybe coins that the Chinese already have but look at the Chinese order books, they're so thin that you would struggle to buy 5k just to arb. The thing that I always think is that yes there will always be those who stick around and hold out hope till the very end but surely most people in China who want out completely have had so much time do it especially as they can read the news without google translate! |
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Huobi rising while Stamps falling, we saw a $20 or so gap between the two yesterday (GMT) and over night the gap has been closed to $6.
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Are you insinuating that Japan should consider reimbursing customers of Gox with state funds? That sounds asinine.
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Based on my research, I don't believe we will see 435 ever again (Bitstamp). If someone is willing to bet (I naturally expect much better than 1:1 for me), PM please. Chart1 & Chart2. This is just the 2013-7-18 again. No looking back (when you least expect it). I prefer to make my bets by my position in market rather than with people directly, but do you really think that if a Chinese exchange came out now and either confirmed the news or even worse announced they were closing that we wouldn't drop $20? |
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There are no bids on Houbi ladies and gentleman.
This is a problem.
It looking more and more like a major decoupling of exchanges is coming soon ala Gox redux.
I understand that withdrawing BTC from Huobi and such is still possible? If so, I do not believe we can have Gox-style decoupling - arbitrage, a.k.a. dumping Chinese coins on Bitsamp and such is still possible. It was complete inability to withdraw anything from Gox that coused its prices to decouple. Yes but arbing only works for so long when you cant get money back into a Chinese exchange. |
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Someones putting up a wall on Stamp, everyone is buying in front of it and then its getting pulled. Like three times now.
No there is someone putting limit orders well above the lowest selling price. The walls eats all the lowest asks until it has been filled. And they are instantly removing them after placing them and the price running up abit in front. Its very weird. |
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Someones putting up a wall on Stamp, everyone is buying in front of it and then its getting pulled. Like three times now.
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What happens if theres literally no money left on Huobi, will they let the price fall to double digits or would they halt trading?
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Is it safe to assume that if coins are coming from China that they are being sold on BTC-e as they are both on a level price ?
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..... And also at least everyone knows that all the negativity to come will be you talking your book I'm trying to remember more than three members, who post here regularly, who aren't talking their book. True in general, I post here a lot what do you think my position is then based on what I say, I'd be interested to see how right you are. TBH, I haven't paid much attention. I tend to bet bored by the ad hom attacks and skip a lot of what I consider nonsense. I'll go back a few tens of pages and try to determine your position. Fair enough? talking ones book and putting ones money where ones mouth is are two sides of one coin, no? That was kind of my original point with the fact he had put his money where his mouth is. |
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..... And also at least everyone knows that all the negativity to come will be you talking your book I'm trying to remember more than three members, who post here regularly, who aren't talking their book. True in general, I post here a lot what do you think my position is then based on what I say, I'd be interested to see how right you are. TBH, I haven't paid much attention. I tend to bet bored by the ad hom attacks and skip a lot of what I consider nonsense. I'll go back a few tens of pages and try to determine your position. Fair enough? You dont have to go back just click on my name and look at my latest posts. No need to waste space in this thread PM me what you reckon. |
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..... And also at least everyone knows that all the negativity to come will be you talking your book I'm trying to remember more than three members, who post here regularly, who aren't talking their book. True in general, I post here a lot what do you think my position is then based on what I say, I'd be interested to see how right you are. |
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Look. I love bitcoin. I want it to go to 10k tomorrow (after I close my shorts ). But, this news is bad and its going to haunt us till at least May 10th. So, my position is only smart. Fair enough you gotta get those asks you posted filled before you can close em though |
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