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2241  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 16, 2013, 10:02:56 AM
last realy big selloff had also a nice  bidwall  ..  got eaten like candy..

 Angry

Yes, so "they" are basically selling into any rally and it is not showing up (of course) in the market depth...
2242  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 16, 2013, 09:43:29 AM
so ive been watching the bigger guys for a while..

a) reloading for big dumps.
b) reloading for big uptrend rallies..

since i think we didnt hit real bottom yet..   (70-80) .. i think it will be a)
then again.. i made many trade mistakes already..
still 10x investment before bubble though Smiley but still.. made a lot of mistakes in this downtrend

I've been trying to connect the market depth with what you mention, related to, "a)" above.
Look at the market depth below. The buy orders are outnumbering the sell orders by roughly 2:1, but what it doesn't show is the number of market sells coming in and just dumping shares, eating through the larger bid supply. (I don't think the market depth was this positive even a week ago?) We don't see as many of those on the ask side. Any ideas on this guys? I mean could the bid side be manipulators just waiting to pull their orders or are the big sellers just not showing their hand in the market depth?

2243  Economy / Speculation / Re: Flashcrash this month on: June 15, 2013, 06:11:47 PM
Thanks for your candidness, but please don't start a thread the way you did again. I mean you never mentioned "I think", "this is speculation", etc in your initial thread. And, the title of your thread is not a hypothesis, it is just a statement. That is sort of manipulative if you know what I mean.
2244  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 15, 2013, 05:57:53 PM
What an incredible rally this was. Moved back to $104 with a powerful volume of ~5k coins.

I can feel the bullish market.  Roll Eyes

I notice that the volume going up takes much more than the volume going down. It seems like it takes more to make it go up than to make it go down.
This doesn't exactly make sense if you are watching the market depth. There, you can see there are plenty of buys below the price. But it isn't adding up when I watch the price move (relative to say chartbuddy).
Would this just be a reflection of the bearish nature these days?

edit - Guess I should add that market order sells or limit orders coming in would be the reason (jumping over those on the books)...
2245  Economy / Speculation / Re: Flashcrash this month on: June 15, 2013, 01:03:10 PM
Mea Culpa! I'm looking at BTC at $100+ right now, Saturday, June 15th. I'm wrong, my prediction was wrong, and I am a clueless noob.

Let the dissing commence! (grin)

Just spill the beans then. What were you looking at happening and what are you looking at happening...?
2246  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 15, 2013, 12:49:27 PM
Bids are not lowering, it just looks that way now because the price went up from 98-ish to 102. That also makes the ask side look more in balance with the bid side now, I guess double digits are just not sustainable (yet?).

Ahhh, I see your point. I really don't think double digits are sustainable either - sustainable being the key word. We may have buyers come in and jack the price up but there are many many people who would like to sell in the $100 + range, so I don't see a prolonged rally unless those buyers start coming in force. For that we need something - news, another bank to go under, interest rates to really rise, etc.

I don't like being in Fiat but I get the feeling we will slowly settle below 100. I worked some numbers by studying the chart (and past charts) and came up with a bounce off the $90 range on our way down.  The other points on the way down (not saying we reach all of them) is 82, 68 and 60. Maybe low 50's but I think the buying won't let that happen, too many people want it. Depending on how long the downward movement goes on, I'd "guess" the $68 region is more likely, we'll have to see how people react.

Any chance of teasing an explanation from you...?

When I traded many years ago I was almost exclusively a candlestick guy. Well, I started going through the old "crash" last night and comparing it to the new one. I broke the chart down into an hourly one (and there abouts) and focussed on some of the key volume spikes on the move down. But, I also was looking at the formation of the old (2011) bubble and what was interesting is that on the way up, there was a disturbance in the smooth rise, and on the way down that disturbance clearly acted as support. So, instead focussing on the move down (which I looked closely at) I was also trying to correlate things to the move up. In a way, you can call it like an expected "mirror approach". The current bubble is not quite as pronounced, but just observe the chart and look for these mirror spots. I'm not saying it will work, but it doesn't really disagree with the move downs support levels. I did some eyeball averaging as well and it all seemed to add up. The bounces are quite predictable (but I'm not really a trader per say). That is the short of it.
2247  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 15, 2013, 11:37:12 AM
Bids are not lowering, it just looks that way now because the price went up from 98-ish to 102. That also makes the ask side look more in balance with the bid side now, I guess double digits are just not sustainable (yet?).

Ahhh, I see your point. I really don't think double digits are sustainable either - sustainable being the key word. We may have buyers come in and jack the price up but there are many many people who would like to sell in the $100 + range, so I don't see a prolonged rally unless those buyers start coming in force. For that we need something - news, another bank to go under, interest rates to really rise, etc.

I don't like being in Fiat but I get the feeling we will slowly settle below 100. I worked some numbers by studying the chart (and past charts) and came up with a bounce off the $90 range on our way down.  The other points on the way down (not saying we reach all of them) is 82, 68 and 60. Maybe low 50's but I think the buying won't let that happen, too many people want it. Depending on how long the downward movement goes on, I'd "guess" the $68 region is more likely, we'll have to see how people react.
2248  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 15, 2013, 11:22:46 AM
Anyone notice Chartbuddy chaning the last few hours?
Seems like the Bids are lowering and asks are raising.

This little rise got knocked down over a buck on low volume (relative to the higher volume on the rise.)
2249  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Weekends Jinxed! on: June 15, 2013, 09:40:34 AM
Solo miners using ASICs who are selling off their newly minted coins each weekend?

I don't think so, the timing of the sells point to either China and/of someone wanting to drop the price. I mean you don't sell large amounts of BTC on a weekend day in the morning unless you want to drop the price.

2250  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 15, 2013, 08:11:22 AM
Can someone explain the large Bid Ask imbalance - I mean it is easy to see but with so many bids (support?) right below the price and so few sells above the current price, shouldn't we be going up?
I've noticed it slowly had been building the last 2 or 3 days (as we went down.)

IAS

Normally you only see this bid/ask pattern during panic sell offs with large volumes, the ask side looks very thin then because it doesn't have time to build up during a panic sell off. This also creates the big bounces up from the bottom because once people start buying again there's little resistance upwards. The weird thing is that now we've been sitting long enough around this price for the ask side to be building up, but it stays very thin which I find very suspicious. I don't know what to make of it.

Thanks for the information. Something (obvious) that just came to me is of course we aren't seeing the orders go in live at the current price or there abouts. The Market depth is just placed bid asks, and doesn't really reflect (fully) what people are doing in that moment (e.g. market orders). So, we still can have a huge sell off if sellers come in, and vice versa if the pattern were reversed and we had enough buyers...

IAS
2251  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 15, 2013, 07:49:05 AM
Can someone explain the large Bid Ask imbalance - I mean it is easy to see but with so many bids (support?) right below the price and so few sells above the current price, shouldn't we be going up?
I've noticed it slowly had been building the last 2 or 3 days (as we went down.)

IAS
2252  Economy / Speculation / Re: Flashcrash this month on: June 14, 2013, 09:17:19 PM
Doesn't want to stay below $100 but who knows what the weekend will bring us...  Shocked

I've been surprised at the buying pressure. But perhaps, the bigger surprise is that sellers have been careful not to bring the price down much.
2253  Economy / Speculation / Re: Flashcrash this month on: June 14, 2013, 03:11:32 PM
11am EDT NOW...
2254  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 14, 2013, 02:34:25 PM
85$ bottom for this fall!
Any other predictions?  Grin

I think it will be a slow downward, volatile movement over a few months (barring anything major).

+1
Until a whole bunch of people are bored to tears/sick of the pain and truly capitulate

A flash crash that cleared it all out down below would probably avert this scenario

Take your pick  Shocked

Yes, and note I am a long term BTC Bull, even though I recently switched to short to mid term bear.

Even considering what I said, we have to be careful here. Some great news can make us turn on a dime.
Another bank falling like in Cyprus can do that more so.
2255  Economy / Speculation / Re: Yet another analyst :) on: June 14, 2013, 02:24:13 PM
The give away was the increasing price on decreasing volume over 3 days. That is often a pretty tell tale sign of downward movement to come.

It was for me. But I wish I would have listened to my gut at $130...
2256  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 14, 2013, 02:20:14 PM
85$ bottom for this fall!
Any other predictions?  Grin

I think it will be a slow downward, volatile movement over a few months (barring anything major).
2257  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 14, 2013, 12:14:58 PM
The trouble is that because BTC is used more for speculation than anything else the price varies wildly according speculators moods.  If it was more widely used as a currency then that would give it an intrinsic value and some inertia to its price changes.  For example there are traders dealing in USD but if they go crazy then still nobody's going to give you $20000 for £500 because $20000 also represents the price of a new car which £500 obviously doesn't.  Widespread use might not be good for speculators but for BTC itself as a currency it would stabilise its value a lot.

Of course though this is a speculators forum so I don't expect this suggestion to be very popular here!

In 2011 Visa peaked at 11,000 transactions per second.  Now that's, two years ago.

2013, Bitcoin can handle only what, 5-7 transactions per second?  

Bottom line, Bitcoin will never be a world currency.  It won't even be a "new Visa".  

There are so many ways to improve upon Bitcoins speed, but as the lead developer Gavin said, in general, developers don't plan for something that hasn't yet arrived. (within reason and I'm paraphrasing).
If you think this open source software is operating at the highest level it can, then you are mistaken.

Another thing, BTC isn't to replace all of what Visa does. Clearly some people don't care about fees and such. We are just trying to get a small % (to start) of their transactions. That alone will change our price magnitudes (yes). I'm sure when Visa was 4 years old that it couldn't handle 11k transactions per second and it is unfair to think BTC should right now (not to mention it doesn't need to).

We are still in Beta and yet trading at $100+ (and my bet, like yours, to come down in price.  Wink  )


2258  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 14, 2013, 10:59:22 AM
Having volume today is a very normal market reaction. 

If we are expecting that the "manipulator" will make a large dump on Sunday to cause a price fall,  then the no-brainer approach will be to sell your coin now, and stock up on your fiat, to buy back on Sunday after the dump.


2259  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: bitcoinchannel.com being flagged by Chrome as containing Malware on: June 14, 2013, 09:35:42 AM
i think you are confusing it with

http://www.thebitcoinchannel.com/


This thread was started a while ago, the problem is now gone. But it was definitely on http://www.thebitcoinchannel.com/ and that is where my screenshots came from (as you can see).
2260  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: bitcoinchannel.com being flagged by Chrome as containing Malware on: June 14, 2013, 09:31:39 AM
Chrome should be called PRISM Personal Edition.

LOL  Cheesy

Well, it is a suite no?

Microsoft Prism Explorer
Microsoft Prism Outlook
Microsoft Prism 7

FacePrism

Google Prismail

And of note, "Prism" is actually pronounced PRISON
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