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2321  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 30, 2021, 07:29:09 PM

The elderly tend to die...shouldn't change the housing market. They've been doing so for a while now.

If people live shorter they take up less spacetime.



how many years before people would be able to leave some intelligent 'remnant' with which we may converse?
is it even desirable?
2322  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 30, 2021, 07:16:18 PM
Greedy much?

Off for my daily walk, feeling happy and blessed for my "fuck you" wealth, my hard-earned HoDL reward, all thanks to Bitcoin.

Onwards & upwards!

HoDL.

An interesting question. I guess I am, but it is more like a game of "More".
I think that I have this only chance of a generational wealth for even extended family, so, indeed, I am pressing very hard.
I would very happy if bitcoin goes back to 70-90% or even more dominance.
2323  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 30, 2021, 07:04:54 AM
[edited out]

Actually, i am pretty sure that name calling is MUCH more off-topic than my meeker mentionings of the actual facts in the original cited text, but I digress.

If you are off topic and trying to compare and contrast shitcoins here, do you think that there is some kind of imperative to be nice about telling you to fuck off.  I was trying to be nice (within my abilities to do so), but you continue to persist to want to talk about shitcoins.

I wasn't talking ABOUT any coins, i was saying (in passing) that we are underperforming for 2-2.5mo, which is a statement of fact.
the rest is just your fake rage mixed up with some nonsense.


Under performing? you must be joking... Last time i'd check Bitcoin was 1T market cap. Is the other coins you are talking about 1T market cap or even close to that?

Just because a penny stock goes from 1c to 2c doesn't mean it is out performing stocks in the Dow Jones!...


I guess you don't know the term underperforming.
Going from 70% dominance to 48% is significantly underperfoming. I am pretty sure that "something" gained a few hundred bil in the process and it ain't pennys.
Look at the charts. Yes, it is easier to close your ears and keep saying na-na-na, like some do around here, hence the rage.
On the other hand, if you acknowledge the situation, maybe you can make a prediction as to when it reverses, possibly, which could be soon and better be.
If it continues for, say, 3 more mo, bigger money would start to actively leave and even more if it goes for a year.
Do you think "institutions" bought in because they suddenly become true believers?
They looked at the alpha and at a market cap and decided to spruce their portfolios, but if there is no alpha in relation to alternatives, they are a finicky bunch and will not stay for too long.

They can fuck off and go put their money in shitcoins if they believe that there is any there there.. .that would be nice to see a bunch of rich folks and institutions have their money go up in smoke... hahahahaha  Sure some are dumb, but I doubt that they are as dumb as you are making them out to be.. as a whole. 

In other words, good luck to you and the dumb folks who invest in shitcoins... and by the way, did anyone suggest to take that discussion somewhere else?  asking for a friend

sure, but do you have anything to say? lol
2324  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 30, 2021, 06:53:55 AM
[edited out]

Actually, i am pretty sure that name calling is MUCH more off-topic than my meeker mentionings of the actual facts in the original cited text, but I digress.

If you are off topic and trying to compare and contrast shitcoins here, do you think that there is some kind of imperative to be nice about telling you to fuck off.  I was trying to be nice (within my abilities to do so), but you continue to persist to want to talk about shitcoins.

I wasn't talking ABOUT any coins, i was saying (in passing) that we are underperforming for 2-2.5mo, which is a statement of fact.
the rest is just your fake rage mixed up with some nonsense.


Under performing? you must be joking... Last time i'd check Bitcoin was 1T market cap. Is the other coins you are talking about 1T market cap or even close to that?

Just because a penny stock goes from 1c to 2c doesn't mean it is out performing stocks in the Dow Jones!...


I guess you don't know the term underperforming.
Going from 70% dominance to 48% is significantly underperfoming. I am pretty sure that "something" gained a few hundred bil in the process and it ain't pennys.
Look at the charts. Yes, it is easier to close your ears and keep saying na-na-na, like some do around here, hence the rage.
On the other hand, if you acknowledge the situation, maybe you can make a prediction as to when it reverses, possibly, which could be soon and better be.
If it continues for, say, 3 more mo, bigger money would start to actively leave and even more if it goes for a year.
Do you think "institutions" bought in because they suddenly become true believers?
They looked at the alpha and at a market cap and decided to spruce their portfolios, but if there is no alpha in relation to alternatives, they are a finicky bunch and will not stay for too long.
2325  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 30, 2021, 06:22:02 AM
[edited out]

Actually, i am pretty sure that name calling is MUCH more off-topic than my meeker mentionings of the actual facts in the original cited text, but I digress.

If you are off topic and trying to compare and contrast shitcoins here, do you think that there is some kind of imperative to be nice about telling you to fuck off.  I was trying to be nice (within my abilities to do so), but you continue to persist to want to talk about shitcoins.

I wasn't talking ABOUT any coins, i was saying (in passing) that we are underperforming for 2-2.5mo, which is a statement of fact.
the rest is just your fake rage mixed up with some nonsense.
2326  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 30, 2021, 05:55:42 AM
Although, why the s-t is rallying, yo, and we are stuck in the doldrums? Hmmm

You should diversify more of your own holdings into shit, if you are so worried about missing out.   Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

I did not ask what to do, I asked (rhetorically, maybe) why we are under-performing.
Do you have an answer? Let's have it, otherwise I am not interested.

In other words, you are trolling the thread, you shittwat.

In other words:  Get the fuck out of here with your gratuitous passive-aggressive nonsubstantive negging upon dee king daddy, and seeming desire to devolve into off-topic baloney talk of analyzing shitcoins.

Furthermore, do you really believe that the likely to be short-term and not-long-lived beyond 20-50 years of pumpenings of shitcoins really reflects negatively on BTC fundamentals?  

You need to get a grip and not get worked up so easily.. in terms of how much greener the grass seems to be on the other side of the fence blah blah blah.

You might not even understand what bitcoin is, right?  Do you need some basic lessons regarding what bitcoin is and how it is distinguishable from the various shitcoins that you are so ongoingly distracted by?

So, why we are underperforming right now..and for the last, say, 2-2.5 mo?
It could be nothing or something, I don't know yet. Would like to know the opinions, though.
The rest of the above text is just name-calling bs by a bs artist.

I already said.  You are off topic.  Go take your compare/contrast bullshit to some other thread.

Actually, it could be that name calling is MUCH more off-topic than my meeker mentionings of the actual facts in the original cited text, but I digress.

EDIT: You think that comparison is not important, but at this stage it is. Institutions are driving the market now, not anyone here with a 1-1000 btc.
Institutions do care about alpha and out-performance drives capital in and under-performance drives it out just as well.
Granted, two mo is nothing, but if you believe that one year of this would be inconsequential, let's just say that it won't be.
2327  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 30, 2021, 05:42:44 AM
Although, why the s-t is rallying, yo, and we are stuck in the doldrums? Hmmm

You should diversify more of your own holdings into shit, if you are so worried about missing out.   Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

I did not ask what to do, I asked (rhetorically, maybe) why we are under-performing.
Do you have an answer? Let's have it, otherwise I am not interested.

In other words, you are trolling the thread, you shittwat.

In other words:  Get the fuck out of here with your gratuitous passive-aggressive nonsubstantive negging upon dee king daddy, and seeming desire to devolve into off-topic baloney talk of analyzing shitcoins.

Furthermore, do you really believe that the likely to be short-term and not-long-lived beyond 20-50 years of pumpenings of shitcoins really reflects negatively on BTC fundamentals?  

You need to get a grip and not get worked up so easily.. in terms of how much greener the grass seems to be on the other side of the fence blah blah blah.

You might not even understand what bitcoin is, right?  Do you need some basic lessons regarding what bitcoin is and how it is distinguishable from the various shitcoins that you are so ongoingly distracted by?

So, why we are underperforming right now..and for the last, say, 2-2.5 mo?
It could be nothing or something, I don't know yet. Would like to know the opinions, though.
The rest of the above text is just name-calling bs by a bs artist.
2328  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 30, 2021, 05:18:45 AM
@XRPMadness
The effect of options on BTC (1d chart). Each circle is the expiration date, last Friday of the month. Line is the trend until those dates. Quite clear.

https://twitter.com/xrpmadness/status/1387836594602790912?s=21

Very good for mining the coin.kind Flat price + Flat difficulty also Good for buy the dip and hodl.

But yeah I see it being done to encourage Doge speculation and the like.

Ever since  you pointed it out I have purchased on the last three dips in the pattern.

I do see a solid break out on May 1 after the futures clear.

We (royal of course) can even grant you the whole day of May 1 until 12midnight UTC.. but you do not get any longer than that.

If BTC prices do not go above $70k before midnight UTC on May 1, you were wwwwwwwwwrrrrrrrrrrooooooonnnnnnnnggggggggg.

You can probably notice that I am wishing for you to be correct, though.  #nohomo.

Although, why the s-t is rallying, yo, and we are stuck in the doldrums? Hmmm

You should diversify more of your own holdings into shit, if you are so worried about missing out.   Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

I did not ask what to do, I asked (rhetorically, maybe) why we are under-performing.
Do you have an answer? Let's have it, otherwise I am not interested.
2329  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 29, 2021, 10:27:21 PM
@XRPMadness
The effect of options on BTC (1d chart). Each circle is the expiration date, last Friday of the month. Line is the trend until those dates. Quite clear.

https://twitter.com/xrpmadness/status/1387836594602790912?s=21





Very good for mining the coin.kind Flat price + Flat difficulty also Good for buy the dip and hodl.

But yeah I see it being done to encourage Doge speculation and the like.

Ever since  you pointed it out I have purchased on the last three dips in the pattern.

I do see a solid break out on May 1 after the futures clear.

Most likely.
I start to 'hate' the futures influence just because they give me a headache.
We are currently below mid Feb price (it was around 57.5 or so).
Basically, a flat with a slight downward tilt. Could be similar to 2013 intermittent "mini-bear" on a smaller movement scale.
65K ATH was not confirmed so far by btc moving below the lower high in Feb.
Of course, a sharp burst toward 70K would alleviate the concerns.
Although, why the s-t is rallying, yo, and we are stuck in the doldrums? Hmmm
2330  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 28, 2021, 08:57:05 PM
@infofront: Pick it in terms of defining it, or picking one from a predefined set of (already prepared) polls?

I was buying bitcoins!!

Your timestamp 1619633791
My timastmap 1619633792

Choose the poll... infofront didn’t put any conditions so it’s open for you.

Hmm, i'm still thinking...
No idea  Roll Eyes

If you have a good poll on your mind, i'd let you choose.

Who else owns Bitcoin among your closed ones?
1. I’m alone
2. Me and my partner
3. My family and close friends
4. All of my circle owns some

Or

What’s your estimated price to sell your Bitcoins at least 50%
1. Next ATH
2. $100k
3. $250k
4. $500k
Or you going to HODL and die with your bitcoins? Don’t do this please...

Edit:
Or may be more generalized
What’s your estimated price to sell your Bitcoins at least 50%
1. Next ATH
2. $100-$150k
3. $200-$300k
4. $500k+

I think the first one is a good idea.
All the ideas i already had for a poll were already asked.
On the other hand, my mind is occupied with family probs at the time.
One of the sons is underperforming at school. It's not that he isn't clever, but he thinks he is way better than he really is. And when he's confronted with his low skills after writing tests, he's just sad. Not that he can be motivated to learn his stuff, but he remembers hundreds of names and details of pokemon, while he can't even accurately convert simple units (tons,kilograms,dekagrams,grams) - it's almost like dyscalculia. He gets it right one time out of four, by accident. $34 and 20c, converted to cents result in 340002 cents, for example. Next try, 2354cents converted to dollars, his reply is correct with $23,54...
He has a military grade maths teacher, too. I get a call from her every few weeks  Roll Eyes
I was helping many loser students in programming and computer science class, they were F's and made it to B,C's and some even found their new favorite hobby in coding. I'm good at teaching, i always tried hard to be a good teacher, but anything i try to teach him just wont stick in his head.
I really started to feel kind of helpless, lately.
My weak mind is occupied by spinning thoughts around this problem.
The trial to choose a poll made me somewhat aware of it.

Very interesting. Could it be that they are used to a phone calculator, so they don't need to solve problems by thinking about it?
According to mom, I got severe food poisoning when I was a small kid, and then refused to eat typical food.
Dr. suggested to place multiple types of food in front and maybe I choose something for starters. I did. It was something weird.
The point is-maybe give him several learning options...who knows, maybe he is a football player or a poet?
2331  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 28, 2021, 07:56:19 PM
1-4 does not fully pertain since you don't HAVE to sell, for the umpteenth's time.
You've got a NY Central park facing apartment. When you are going to sell...the likely answer is never..lob it to your descendants.

Trust me I thought of this... Pass it on to your descendants!!!!

In fact that’s one valid option!!!

Btw how much is NY Central park facing apartment? Never thought about it....  2 beds at least? Just to estimate Bitcoin price Smiley

typically, low to mid 8 figures, maybe less if in a highriser, overlooking from a distance.
https://www.zillow.com/new-york-ny/views-overlooking-central-park_att/
2332  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 28, 2021, 07:42:21 PM
@infofront: Pick it in terms of defining it, or picking one from a predefined set of (already prepared) polls?

I was buying bitcoins!!

Your timestamp 1619633791
My timastmap 1619633792

Choose the poll... infofront didn’t put any conditions so it’s open for you.

Hmm, i'm still thinking...
No idea  Roll Eyes

If you have a good poll on your mind, i'd let you choose.

Who else owns Bitcoin among your closed one?
1. I’m alone
2. Me and my partner
3. My family and close friends
4. All of my circle owns some

Or

What’s your estimated price to sell your Bitcoins at least 50%
1. Next ATH
2. $100k
3. $250k
4. $500k
Or you going to HODL and die with your bitcoins? Don’t do this please...

Edit:
Or may be more generalized
What’s your estimated price to sell your Bitcoins at least 50%
1. Next ATH
2. $100-$150k
3. $200-$300k
4. $500k+

1-4 does not fully pertain since you don't HAVE to sell, for the umpteenth's time.
You've got a NY Central park facing apartment. When you are going to sell...the likely answer is never..lob it to your descendants.

A much more interesting question, imho is: a price for ATH this cycle and or timing of it:

1. It already happened
2. 75K-90K
3. 91K-150K
4. 151K-250K
5. Above 250K

or

1. It already peaked.
2. It will peak in 2021.
3. It will peak in 2022.
4. it will peak in 2023
5. The 4-year cycle ceases to be (going up or down marginally from here).

js, it is YOUR call
2333  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 28, 2021, 06:55:05 PM
You don't pay for moving coins to a ledger anyway but not everyone will be 100% bitcoin when it goes above a million. Everyone in the US and on this forum may eventually get hit with the tax when bitcoin goes up combined with hyperinflation. Also, if the US goes to 43.8%, you can bet the EU will follow shortly. What happens when a million is equivalent to a current $100k because of inflation? Could happen in a few years at the current rate.

I think you do: If you move coins from an address to another then I thought it was a taxable event ("work" is being done, like those crazy Jewish sabbath rules). Maybe if it's not in your control, but if that's the case then the argument should be move coins around at will, tax when converted into fiat.

nah moving corn between addys under your control is not taxable. its like when you top your hot wallet up or xfer to/from an exchange. the taxable event occurs when you finally convert btc to fiat or anything else (altcoin, gold, etc), not from the coin itself moving around.


You are right, it is not, but somehow Coinbase used to portray (in their tax docs?) the move from their account to your personal one as a sell.
Not sure if it still holds true.
2334  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 28, 2021, 04:40:11 PM
The problem is not the current 23.8% (3.8% added for Obamacare in 2013), it's the proposed increase to 43.8%.
On amounts over 1m-whatever slave wage you get paid in life, correct?

Quote
What if you're not cashing out but just moving money from one investment to another? Doesn't seem as fair when you're not actually cashing out. Maybe there should be separate rates for cashing out or just shifting investments around/rebalancing your portfolio.

That's a very good point: My buying a new nano or whatever and moving my coins to it shouldn't result in a 43% hit. That does need to be corrected and is a consequence of the whole IRS decision way back when that treats bitcoins like gold bars or something.



I'm mainly concerned about the capital gains on investments you didn't cash out. A million is more than anyone needs to live in a year.

You don't pay for moving coins to a ledger anyway but not everyone will be 100% bitcoin when it goes above a million. Everyone in the US and on this forum may eventually get hit with the tax when bitcoin goes up combined with hyperinflation. Also, if the US goes to 43.8%, you can bet the EU will follow shortly. What happens when a million is equivalent to a current $100k because of inflation? Could happen in a few years at the current rate.

If you want to shift investments around, you still get hit with the tax even if you didn't take that money out to use. The effect of the tax is it forces everyone to be a holder even if they are holding a bad investment. Good for bitcoin not so good for stocks or companies. It's better for the economy if people can move their investments from shit companies to good companies as their performance fluctuates rather than be locked in due to a 43.8% hit by the government.



Yes, it does not make sense if you sold one investment (especially if no $ exchanged hands) and plowed the proceeds into another, but, unfortunately, it is not how the tax code is written, with the exception of something in real estate (1031 exchanges?). At high taxes, you would be basically stuck and velocity/frequency of large investments would decrease, no doubt about that. The funny thing is that Cali/NY dems are basically revolting and saying-no SALT, no deal, which, if passed, would mean a huge jump in RE prices. Would be a big deal in TX where RE taxes are about 2% of the property value (market, not some old baseline) yearly.
2335  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 28, 2021, 03:49:07 PM
Here we go.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-to-propose-1-8-trillion-plan-aimed-at-families-tax-hikes-for-wealthiest-americans-11619600400

BTW, if you spent $250 at the beginning of 2013, bought 20 btc and held 'them, you already ARE that rich bastard that "needs" to be taxed 43.4%+state tax if you sell to buy a house or a lake ( Cheesy ).
It sucks to be Mr/Ms smarty pants.

Well, hate to say it but if you only bought 20 bitcoins that's worth $1,000,000 today. Which means if you sell it all it's at the exact same tax rates (in the US) as it was last year. To the dime. The first 250k or so would be taxed at marginal rates up to 20% and the rest would be taxed at a straight 20%.

That's kind of life. So if we simplified the math you get a net profit of $799,750, your initial $250 investment back. I mean yeah I guess that sucks, but compare that to someone who ignored bitcoin and has $0 and none of their avoided investment lost and didnt pay those evil taxes (the freeloaders!)

Taxes are kind of a price to pay to live in a civilized society. In areas with low low tax rates and limited government they have other... issues and your protections against fraud and force are.... well less.

Plus this is per year. So I can pick up 3 Lambos a year at the same tax rates as last year. I could also buy a 20m house, and pay it off at a rate of 800k a year for 30 or so years without hitting an additional penalty. Granted a 30m house is kinda lame but you know if you need bigger than that then maybe you can bitch about the Biden tax.

So... meh?

First off, you are wrong on math a bit (due to NIIT), second, I was talking about the Biden tax proposal (are you aware of it?), which, if passed, would apply retroactively to Jan 2021, no doubt (to prevent EOY selling).

Math? Even now, you would pay 3.8% NIIT extra PLUS state tax (add 12% more in cali). So, 43.4+state on above 1mil (in proposal).

In my example, only 100K exceeds (bad example), so make it 40 coins for $500, lol, then more than a mil will exceed.

BTW, I also think that 20% tax is fair, and even 23.8% is OK, but 43.4 and above is approaching confiscation. I paid once 39.6% CG tax (had large short term profits in 2000). Man, that was brutal.
2336  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 28, 2021, 03:42:56 PM
We have hybrid systems now.
China is not purely communist and US is not purely capitalist and, btw, in both systems government keeps wanting more power.
There is also a theory that a convergence of both systems (cap and comm) is actually occurring.
So far, we have more personal freedoms, no doubt. They have a bit easier way to organize mass movements of the workforce (for example, doctors in China in response to COVID).
Personally, I prefer more freedom.
2337  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 28, 2021, 01:22:42 PM
Supercycle thesis (D. Held) discussion on McCormack's podcast:

https://www.whatbitcoindid.com/podcast/the-bitcoin-supercycle-revisited
2338  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 28, 2021, 01:11:03 PM
Here we go.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-to-propose-1-8-trillion-plan-aimed-at-families-tax-hikes-for-wealthiest-americans-11619600400

BTW, if you spent $250 (EDIT: $500 for a better example) at the beginning of 2013, bought 20 40 btc and held 'them, you already ARE that rich bastard that "needs" to be taxed 43.4%+state tax if you sell to buy a house or a lake ( Cheesy ). It sucks to be Mr/Ms smarty pants.

The "surprise" would be in that the revenue would be affected negatively since people would not sell. Therefore, they would need to come up with Act II and straight tax wealth, not cap gains.
Why? See below.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-taxes-for-punishments-sake-11619374000

2339  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 27, 2021, 06:18:02 PM
And still the "dump BTC for ETH or XRP" pump trade continues.  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

Gosh do they want people in anything *but* Bitcoin so badly...  Roll Eyes

I wonder why? Smells like 2017 all over again... Wink

Pity for the n00bs and more pity for those who already been in the situation and made gaines, though those people before (also some of my friends) "made gaines" but also choked themselves in the altcoin-koolaid and never took the BTC profits always thinking it will go higher it will sustain etc... So the profit they should have taken turned around in what altcoins true meaning is designed for "Not for making BTC, but its to take away peoples BTC" Few understand this. But also friends of me right now... have rallied MAXIMUM profits with like ADA for example, it rallies so good that they now think its a good coin while its a shitcoin which is becoming more and more a bigger shitcoin over time and just rallies on the hype etc ... Some have to burn themselves more as one time I guess ...

The sign of the times is that people get excited by the new shiny things..in 2017 it was eth and xerp, now a-coin, d-coin, u-coin, l-coin.
For some, the gains are spectacular (currently). However, we know how it all ends-in a vast under-performance vs btc when the bear market ensues.
All in all, they are oscillators (have been so far). A-coin that you mentioned was the biggest oscillator of them all-lost 98-99% in 2018-2019.
IMHO, it will lose 90% at some point again, the question is-from where?
I never sell btc for any alt, but dabble using fiat. Not buying now.
The difficult art to master is when to sell.
It's easier with bitcoin-I never sell any more, just buy+accumulate otherwise.
2340  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 26, 2021, 06:49:39 PM

New prediction: Market dominance on the verge of starting to flip over from Alts to Bitcoin soon-ish.
(No financial advice)

It's quite possible, alts seem to be peaking right now and bitcoin is accelerating (at least for a time being).
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