I see a geometric progression in size. What's next? candidates: Mexico, Argentina, Brazil? |
|
|
|
...Tax season was rough this year; got dinged for short-term gains in some of my managed portfolios. Gave the managers a ration of shit and told them to minimize those events moving forward, which was the entire point of starting that fund to begin with.
Goddamnit.
80% of managers don't over-perform the market. FAANG numbers for Q1/Q2 are close to catastrophic (bar Apple), and ALL managers over-weighted in this. VTSAX is down 14% YTD FANG+ is down 28% YTD (before AMZN plunge aftermarket) js My "stupid" short term bond fund (to counterweight bitcoin /balance portfolio's risk) is doing 28.25% better than FAANG this year so far. I do have stocks (40% allocation of non-crypto stuff). Those are down, but not as much as prior "leaders". TL;DR imho, replace advisors with VTSAX. It would simplify things and they (Vanguard) provide a nice PAL (pledged asset line) against it, I heard. |
|
|
|
Sorry, i don't believe that btc has to stay within the rainbow lines. |
|
|
|
Today Bitcoin price 40.5k USD...🤑
is this some kind of a joke, pal? |
|
|
|
Did you mean PlanB by Any Chance?  nah, search for "bitboy crypto" on youtube, but better not search as he is full of gas. |
|
|
|
Accumulation is where we are at until the Fed is finished playing bad cop. It's that simple. Any ATHs or lengthy bullish moves can be forgotten about until that time comes.
if it is that simple, then it is NOT digital gold, but what, then? |
|
|
|
|
@JJG...and now that "influencer" bitboy keeps taking about the 20ies.
He is actually almost a perfect predictor..as long as you take everything what he says in reverse.
|
|
|
|
Meanwhile, some of us are buying real property in the real world.
Or is owning real property in meatspace so 2018 now? So passé?
sure, people are interested, but increasingly not being able to afford RE. As i was posting before: house was 3x yearly salary in the 70ies, but 10-30X yearly salary in 2022, with 30x on the coasts. When mortgage goes to 8% (and it probably will), we might have another crisis. Either prices would have to go down or demand would plunge and people would have difficulty to move. In some ways it is already starting as everyone has 3% or below mortgages, but when they buy a new house, it is more like 5%. So if people can't afford to buy something real without taking the time to save up to pay cash for it, they should spend their real money on buying imaginary bullshit? It seems to me that some people spend too much time in an imaginary world, playing online games, buying NFTs, watching movies and TV, etc. Wake up people. There's a real world out there. I don't think i was ADVOCATING buying virtual real estate, far from it. My post was about affordability (or the lack of it) of the "real" real estate. Overpriced flats or houses are NOT a 'real' world, it is a product of financial manipulation. Once RE crashes to it's proper value, maybe there would be some bargains. Additionally, the "real" world assumes that you know what is 'real'. As Descartes noted few centuries ago, you wouldn't know if it is 'real' or you are a brain floating in the nutritious soup vs a person walking around. Plus, it is entirely possible that human existence could become quite miserable in the "real" at some point. As a creature with quite a few decades behind me, I too prefer "real', but this in not the way things are moving. I find it basically inevitable that, eventually, we would digitize one way or another. Could be 1000 years or 10000 or 100000, but at some point "virtualization" of a large % is incoming, unless we destroy ourselves beforehand. Why virtualization: With just 1% annual population growth, we would have 21000X more people in 1000 years. That's 155 quadrillion (1.55X10^14) people, I checked the math thrice. These numbers speak for themselves. |
|
|
|
The other 75% have brain cells and are GMI. That's definitely going to be the new craze. People will go bananas over metaverse properties. No joke. It will crash and burn eventually, of course. But we'll get to see some crazy shit in the next few years.  Meanwhile, some of us are buying real property in the real world. Or is owning real property in meatspace so 2018 now? So passé? sure, people are interested, but increasingly not being able to afford RE. As i was posting before: house was 3x yearly salary in the 70ies, but 10-30X yearly salary in 2022, with 30x on the coasts. When mortgage goes to 8% (and it probably will), we might have another crisis. Either prices would have to go down or demand would plunge and people would have difficulty to move. In some ways it is already starting as everyone has 3% or below mortgages, but when they buy a new house, it is more like 5%. |
|
|
|
|
Bitmain's S19Pro is 35% more expensive, but 'only' 10% more efficient.
What are you guys buying right now?
How about reliability? Any thoughts on that as well?
|
|
|
|
The other 75% have brain cells and are GMI. That's definitely going to be the new craze. People will go bananas over metaverse properties. No joke. It will crash and burn eventually, of course. But we'll get to see some crazy shit in the next few years. It might be a new craze, but i give only 10% that it would be anything based on a blockchain (any of them). Most likely games, next some tech behemoth(s), but I have zero interest in Facebook or Microsoft "metaverses". That said, i already own some "metaverse" properties, bought for a pittance in 2017. However, I fully expect them to zero out eventually, as I don't have time to 'develop" anything there and so do 90-99% of other people. Maybe upon retirement , I would open a bar/club on my props or something like that if i eventually would want to mess with that. Additionally, there is no "floor" for metaverse properties, there is only 'ask', but no 'bid', so values cannot be realistically determined as people's asks for nearby parcels could differ by a factor of 20X. TL;DR 'Metaverses' are full of it rn and it would take maybe a decade to have something interesting in those realms. |
|
|
|
As the trend continues to be down since the ATH, you have to wonder if we will see the return to $10K that was the accumulation period before the last big jump. Billionaires are buying in and fighting the cyclical trend, but they appear to be losing. With the purchases between Do Kwon and Michael Saylor, I thought we’d be over $50K by now. If those two weren’t buying, we may already be at $10K. I’d be hesitant to make any moves trading one way or the other here, but I think it would be unwise to assume we can’t see a prolonged price decrease for potentially the next year or two that takes us to test the last held support levels.
2 years? it would be up to the halving, which has not been a historical trend. 10K? it is theoretically possible, i guess, but for that to happen, many 'bad' things would have to happen. Like, S&P 500 at 1000-1500. Can it get there? Sure, it can in a 2008 repeat. Likely? Not really. I tend to compare current situation with the 70ies. During that time, interest rates went up and stocks were in a sine wave with bottoms roughly half of the tops (Dow 1000 to 600) while inflation raged, so inflation adjusted returns were roughly minus 64% from 1971 to 1982. Check both inflation adjusted and not-inflation-adjusted versions here (the fluctuation between 600 and 1000 is visible only on not-inflation adjusted): https://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones-100-year-historical-chartTo conclude, since bitcoin is more like gold and not stonks (and the gold was up in the 70ies), it is unlikely to trip that low. As far as $22K-sure, it is possible, if we are in the bear market and not in a gigantic flat (between 30 and 60K). Future will show, but my personal opinion is the 30-60K band/flat. |
|
|
|
|
Bitcoin is surprisingly steady to "up", but i got so pissed that everytime all the shitcoin flotilla moves in the unison with bitcoin.
These are different entities, so why people cramp them together?
There is almost NOTHING in common between some me-too token (in the third or fourth dozen in the mktcap) and bitcoin and, yet, this persists for many months already.
OT: What's FAANG without an "N"?
1. something that is de-fanged?
2. toothless tiger?
Sidenote...the trouble with options is that I knew two years ago already that NFLX would have a cascade down situation, bought puts, then got bailed out by COVID's initial plunge (high volatility rescues puts that are out of the money as long as they are far away in time).
I never re-bought the puts and the sucker went up another 2X before finally deciding on a plunger move.
Straight shorting is boring as heck, so options might be a good play, but you need to time it "just right".
The question is: would the next big one be another from the same group?
If yes, my bet would be either on FB downside continuation or AMZN (starting going down properly).
Apple would be the last, but it would be "glorious". Google will not go down much, imho.
|
|
|
|
<snipped>then he will no doubt be the first to say " I was down half a billion dollars , and now I am up 2 billion dollars" and you are not going to say to him... "bro you ain't in profit until you sell bro"
Of course, I will (if getting $$ is the ultimate aim). It only really matters if you want to use that btc as a collateral, then, yes, mark-to-market, etc, etc. Besides, maybe it was not the fitst buy. M. Saylor bought some at 17K, some at 32K, some at 60K, some at 40K (average about 30-31K, I think). OT: Netflix loses subs, craters in extended time. Watch FB doing the same tomorrow. |
|
|
|
Nice spike to 43K on Kraken, triggered a couple orders, and now back down, someone bought 17BTC apparently.
Oh, my, so the liquidity is SO LOW there that 17 BTC buy causes a 2K spike (it is less than $1 mil)? |
|
|
|
That article is total FUD bullshit. If stocks truly fell by 40%, or even 20%, they would literally rally back the following week, and hit new ATHs within the month. Why would they, exactly? It is is not that I strongly disagree, but would like to hear your logic regarding this suggestion. |
|
|
|
|
Below 40K for a gazillionth time.
|
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
