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Buddy is on a rampage, lol
Everybody else thinking: TGIF.
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I think PlanB has showed some very interesting and often accurate analysis. I do agree that his rise to mythical predictor status was, like MasterLuc WAAAAAY overblown. But so is the way everyone now treats him like he is some giant failure has been. I remember the first interview I heard him on he said, something like "This model is amazing and super accurate over the last xyz period, but all models are only accurate until they break." And I think he often said that over time. I would also point out that his model has not broken yet. We really need more of this cycles time behind us to really make that conclusion. It seems HIGHLY likely that it will have failed during this cycle... but there are paths forward where it still retains it's accuracy. They just become less and less likely the further we go. AND to add some nuance I have always thought his model was quite 1 dimensional, and more about backfilling accuracy than something reliable for the future. All the acolytes are the ones responsible for the worship of this model. I always thought it was a kind of silly thing. Now his 100k by December proclamation. There he was 100% wrong. And that was a hubristic mess, that prediction. I wanted it to be true, as we all did, but that is just silly. Some of the other silly predictions were even worse. I still remember Matt Odell getting super drunk and ceiling "Bitcoin T.I.N.A." a bear. But Tina said he did not think BTC was going to go way up, but that it would probably pull back and go up to 6 digits later. His prediction in that regard has been right so far. (Odell irritates me with his "stay humble" bit. His definition of humble is not risking money on alts. My definition is speaking to others with respect in part, which he never really does) I honestly think that the right combination of fundamental evens like the ES conference, and an eventual decoupling of BTC from Nasdaq will drive the next bull. The question is WHEN does it go... PlanB is a stupid bull like me, and his prediction that "the bear market is almost over" is fairly bold. And if it IS true he *could* also still get the last laugh for the s2f model... Probably not... but I hope he's right  Bottom sure, but with the exception of 1 of those "bottoms" they all go sideways for several months before heading into a bull cycle. The idea that because the price levels out that it is suddenly the end of the bear market is ridiculous. I'm not versed in trading lingo, but generally a bear market is defined by falling prices, no? So when the bottom is in, you could argue that it's the end of a bear market. Problem is how to know, if the bottom is really in... Sometimes it really does not matter. In Jan 2015 the bottom was at $178 or so, but you could have bought it about 7 mo later at $210 with the bull truly starting around late September 2015. That was an almost perfect setup for DCAing for about 8 mo. BTW, huge reversal in SP500 (from EXACTLY -20%), Dow, etc today. Maybe the bounce would start sooner than later. |
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So, he's trying to say the cycles are getting shorter? We are somewhere in late 2019 now according to that graph?  It is a nice chart/prediction, but it should be taken with a grain of salt..we could be there already (or were at 26.7K) or the bottom could be 20-30% lower. Not predicting it, but just saying that the graph allows for it (if 14M RSI goes to the same number as previously achieved in Dec 2018). When to buy? If you have cash, maybe DCA already, but if you already have a nice position, then you can simply hodl here. |
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The S&P 500 is now at the same price level as it was on 01/03/2021.
They managed to wipe out an entire years' worth of stonk market gains in just 4.5 months.
That's almost nothing, really. Nikkei went 20 years backwards (over 14 years of slow declines; from 39K to 8K), then was in a 10 year flat (oscillating between 8K and 18K). Now in a bull since 2012 (8K to 26.7K). Imagine a 14 year long bear market. It probably won't be so long since US likes to "take" their recessions fast and furious, but the economy as a whole would need to be restructured because of the end of globalization (or a partial end?) during a period of probably high persistent inflation. Could it take 5-10 years? Sure. |
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By the way, where is the "stable" in this coin? What a clusterfuck  Stablecoin algorithms seems like an implementation of the Martingale strategy but with any of the potential of winning removed. This is exactly what it was. To a t. But people are not learning the right lessons. Novogratz still trying to defend the damn idea. It is rare when I am glad for someone to lose tons of money. I hope he did. sorry, the guy took $355 mil profit in it during winter, so maybe he lost $350 mil recently on it (as per report of galaxy Digital losses), but big cap gains were already taken (so all that loss is basically a book entry). |
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OT: A strange turn of fate: Guardian reports that Putin's youngest "official" daughter was traveling to Munich, Germany all the time because she was dating a guy who directed a ballet company there. His last name...wait for it...is Zelensky Of course, another one, but, still, what a coincidence. |
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...we are still about 10X over the last cycle low, so I don't know what you are talking about. Almost nobody (except @LFC  ) was able to take a massive profit at an absolute top (or close to it). We should have a short term bounce to $38-42K (around 100-200 Day MA). More specifically, 50d EMA -36.4, 100d EMA-39.3, 200d EMA-41.9 the bounce should be between 50d and 200d EMA. It would still be a double of 2017...a good place to sell if cash is needed. |
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Unless the Fed's chair Powell truly does want the stonk market to implode, he needs to shut the fk up.
S&P 500 needs to bounce away from 3837 or he will likely see that.
The only reason he would want to induce that if he and all the big WS players (*cough* all his buddies *cough*) are short this market.
He very well might want to bring it down 40-50%, sure. However, I am of the opinion that, as they lost the plot on inflation upside, they would similarly lose it on the market downside. Somehow, they think that they can control everything, but they can't. At some point these gyrations would become of such amplitude that the whole Ruby Goldberg "machine" would beak. Is it going to be in this cycle? Maybe 20-30% chance, but close to 100% in the next few decades. You just can't interfere ad nauseum and always get away with it...sooner or later it would utterly fail. 2008 was a warning, imho. Not sure what to make of bitcoin's fate during this. Perhaps, as they would try to stop (or reverse) the rise of the dollar, bitcoin would also reverse to the upside. We shall see if this would be more important that the halvings (or not).. |
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Top tip from my hot neighbor, she's a gardener.
Pics or didn't happen...  She's even hot when she's fully dressed. Too bad i always don't know what to talk with her about. Gardener, huh? What a temptation! Some plants to mention: Psychotria elataand, of course, Clitoria ternatea Do not forget "cunticus itchius" mine are real plants...yours...NOT! |
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Top tip from my hot neighbor, she's a gardener.
Pics or didn't happen... She's even hot when she's fully dressed. Too bad i always don't know what to talk with her about. Gardener, huh? What a temptation! Some plants to mention: Psychotria elataand, of course, Clitoria ternatea |
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SNIP
2026-never been to Spain. August, probably a bit hot, but going straight through Barcelona...nice!
SNIP
Well, I've never been to Spain But I kinda like the music Say the ladies are insane there And they sure know how to use it They don't abuse it Never gonna lose it I can't refuse it hmmm...here is a limerick (from freebsdlimericks): There was a young lady from Spain Who got sick as she rode on a train; Not once, but again, And again, and again, And again, and again, and again. OR (to balance the score) There was an Old Person of Spain, Who hated all trouble and pain; So he sat on a chair, With his feet in the air, That umbrageous Old Person of Spain. |
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Some of you guys, now saying that we've been in a bear market since last year but making that call at the bottom of a bear market, make me chuckle. Such amazing insight, guys. I mean, whatever would we do without you? j/k How about we define bear market as "Price hits a new ATH, but then falls and takes too long to return to that price to suit bitcoiners." True.., but if someone can make that call reliably, he/she would be a billionaire, right? Too many factors in play, resulting in a unique situation. I did not shed any bitcoin (because I still have a policy of never selling it), but sold quite a bit of alts during Sept-Dec recovery since I did not believe in that recovery and was periodically posting about this (maybe not with 100% conviction, sure). Paid for all house improvements and then some (even after taxes). We are now witnessing a planetary shit-show and I wonder if my decision (of never selling bitcoin) was too cocky. What before was impossible becomes exceedingly possible and there is no end to various calamities. Sometimes i just want to disconnect from all of it and be at peace (relative)....somewhere. How to get to that somewhere (either spiritually or physically) is currently not clear. |
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2024-just a few hours trip from here during April -nice weather, usually, at this time (around 18-20oC, 70F). 2026-never been to Spain. August, probably a bit hot, but going straight through Barcelona...nice! 2027-Gibraltar (maybe on a cruise)? |
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Since everyone is calling a bear market, I wonder if the badger will disappoint them in the same way it disappointed the 100k laser eyes bull crowd last year.
One thing I've learned over the years is that BTC rarely goes along with the crowd's expectation.
We have been in a bear market (at least as far as almost all on chain params are concerned) since April 2021. It is obvious to me that Nov-Dec 2021 nominal peak was a simple reactionary move to the 'premature' bull termination caused by the chinese. yes, we should have moved to a 'regular' peak of probably at least 100-120K by June-Sept 2021 if not for that abrupt halt, then we tried to resume and, basically, failed (made a double top, though). People (myself included) were hoping for a higher second top, but it did not really happen in the same way as in 2013. The momentum was weak. Now, we are fast-declining from the 35-40K flat similarly to 2018. My hope is that since we did not spike exponentially in this cycle, it would mean that we drop 60% instead of usual 80% or more, but nobody said that it is a law. BTC already done about 62% decline at 25.5, which is close to one of Fib numbers, accidentally. 70% would be 20.4K. Having said that, the bounce should come sooner or later (maybe to 35-40K). We already declined 7 wk straight (new all time record) thanks to luna shenanigans. If you think luna was bad wait till eth self destructs with the switch to pos. as for the red moon. I watch it cover and then said fuck it and did not stay up to see the uncovering. Have to say it look cool when it was basically all covered in a red shadow.. or as my flat earth buds say a tick of projection. unlikely to immediately derp, but who knows. A lot of money would be riding that up and/or down for sure. If it crashes, POW coins (and btc being the largest by far) would actually benefit, so i don't see a correlation there. re Moon-I was observing it by both the naked eyes and a small telescope. This one was fairly low on the horizon, so easier to see than the prior one when it was almost up almost vertically in my location. The most interesting parts are when it is only partially done (partial eclipse; looks like a piece is missing), then, of course the full eclipse stage when it was brown-purplish and another partial. Complete was quite long, actually, i was surprised at that. |
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Since everyone is calling a bear market, I wonder if the badger will disappoint them in the same way it disappointed the 100k laser eyes bull crowd last year.
One thing I've learned over the years is that BTC rarely goes along with the crowd's expectation.
We have been in a bear market (at least as far as almost all on chain params are concerned) since April 2021. It is obvious to me that Nov-Dec 2021 nominal peak was a simple reactionary move to the 'premature' bull termination caused by the chinese. yes, we should have moved to a 'regular' peak of probably at least 100-120K by June-Sept 2021 if not for that abrupt halt, then we tried to resume and, basically, failed (made a double top, though). People (myself included) were hoping for a higher second top, but it did not really happen in the same way as in 2013. The momentum was weak. Now, we are fast-declining from the 35-40K flat similarly to 2018. My hope is that since we did not spike exponentially in this cycle, it would mean that we drop 60% instead of usual 80% or more, but nobody said that it is a law. BTC already done about 62% decline at 25.5, which is close to one of Fib numbers, accidentally. 70% would be 20.4K. Having said that, the bounce should come sooner or later (maybe to 35-40K). We already declined 7 wk straight (new all time record) thanks to luna shenanigans. |
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To discuss planB latest musings, i have to say that I am in agreement that actual bull market peak was in April 2021. There was a small increase in ATH in December, but it was basically a "reactionary" top with no strong momentum. This means that cycles continue at a regular ~4 year interval, hopefully (maybe with some false starts as in 2019). planB: https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1526129846723698688 (@Gachapin already posted the link, I just repost it to reference what I am talking about). |
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LUNA Will be zero before UST How Was the Prediction? This happens when you choose a shitcoin like Terra Luna, which doesn't have a Supply limit. The Terra Luna team Increased the supply from 3B to 2,307B (when I am writing). There is no max supply limit. The Team can increase the Supply infinite and grab your money. Your money will be zeroed while you are sleeping. 6508 billion tokens right now on CMC. What a travesty. They learned from Shiba? lol. That said, they 'printed" a lot of LUNA, therefore, if they would be able to stop or reduce LUNA decline, UST would go back to parity. Why? Because rn LUNA has a market cap of 51 bil (same as before, but they diluted the heck of it-by 2000X) and UST has mcap of only 2bil. Therefore UST can go up 5X to parity and LUNA drop another 80% and still be enough of a value for UST (Terra) to achieve $ parity. EDIT: I spoke too soon, they chopped 2-3 more zeroes off of it-now just $300mil amid 6.9 billion tokens. That said, I am not touching either of those. BTW, bitcoin is doing well. What was the lowest wick? 25.5? I slept like a baby during that. |
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speaking of pants.. anyone feeling robbed, recently?
I feel robbed of a future, or at least it looks pretty dark now. Tired of the masses not realizing a good thing like Bitcoin when it's right in front of them, even during hyperinflation (facepalm), and then more idiots begging for NATO hot war with Russia. How old are you (at least a bracket)? I understand the feeling: it seems that the 'world' is pretty messed up right now and in multiple directions What's next: alien invasion, food shortages, bigger pestilence? Maybe this is how Romans felt in the late 3rd century AD, then West Roman empire fell in 476 and the Dark Ages of 5th-14th century began (almost a thousand years). Certainly, the intelligence and 'culture' is in a rapid decay right now. |
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Meanwhile a small reminder for “crypto” babies. Remember kids $LUNA is not the first shitcoin and it won’t be the last. 2017: Bitconnect 2022: LUNA  how big was Bitconeeeeeeect? Luna was at least $30bil if I recall correctly, but maybe even 60-70 bil. Right now it says that it has 3.45 bil "units", and at high it was $116/unit, but maybe less "units" back then because i don't recall it ever moving above #6-7 spot on CMC (it certainly never was $400bil). It is a LARGE event, probably similar to Enron in relative size vs relevant market. If no contagion, it would stay "Enronesque", hopefully. The main thing now is to make sure it would not become crypto-"Lehman". I wish I know how to help even in a small way....maybe by not selling btc and/or buying more? selling something for usdt...that's cringeworthy, but maybe should be done to help stabilize the situation. |
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