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In 2000 internet/biotech led the decline, followed by SP500 cratering within 6-10mo.
This time, "crypto", biotech and "internet" (FAANG) are cratering (at -50-60% already).
Maybe a bounce in June-July, then a true SP500 crash in the Fall, as usual?
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It's not that you are the first to note that bitcoin periodically retests 200 WMA, far from it, so it is not really that big of a deal if it happens (or not).
But...have a cookie.
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Just 10% away from my price target.  If the price don't touch this trendline, I will never post any TA ever on bitcointalk.  remind us when it touches, pal, if ever. |
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Riddle me this: Why terra is recovering to $10bil value (0.77, up from $0.3-this is the supposed 'stable coin'), while luna keeps at the bottom ($1.14 or $1.6 bil value).
I thought that values should be close to each other+whatever other asset collateral they have (like bitcoin, which they bought in abandon, then sold).
Maybe it is wholly irrelevant, but it took btc down 10-12K (in part due to their large btc sell), THAT'S why i care, never had any Luna/UST whatsoever as it always smelled like a skunk.
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shitcoin doth affect bitcoin, but only temporarily.
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<Hyperbullish cAPS mode on> (like it's ever off lol)
-We are arguably in the first throes of a worldwide financial system meltdown.
-UDT, a stablecoin, has been destroyed
-Luna, the underlying chain has been absolutely rugpulled
-The centralized team behind it sold 80k BTC to try to prop up their project.
Bitcoin? Dips under 30k for a while...
<Hyperbullish cAPS mode back off>
Now I will go back to crying in my gatorade...
worldwide? so far mostly crypto, the rest is still respectable -20% with some prior 'hot stocks' -50-75%. However, you might be proven right....eventually. |
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Definitely writing on the wall as Coinbase makes it perfectly clear that they intend to be the next mtgox in the event that something goes wrong. This is actually terrifying, as I have some ETH2 locked up earning interest that has been in there a long time. I don't believe they ever allowed trading of it, so to find out now that I'm an unsecured creditor is a bit unsettling. I've removed all of my BTC from Coinbase (I never held much there, but did keep some there for trading or hedging trades purposes). I wonder if other exchanges have similar wording in the fine print somewhere. Definitely concerning for anyone who touches exchanges with their crypto. I withdrew today almost everything (99-99.5%) from Coinbase too...just to be sure. Kept a little because of the crazy fees for some tokens. @OP: That's why i never put eth into eth2. Price moves in crypto space as a whole suggests that multiple parties are insolvent. Coinbase-who knows, but it's stock made a move that is similar to Lehman or Bear Stearns. From $360 to $50 in 6mo, including fom $116 to 50 in a few days. Bear did something similar, then went from $30 to $1. I REALLY REALLY wish Coinbase would recover, though. |
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You seem to be on margin in btc.
No. I would never do something so stupid as to take a leveraged long on a highly volatile asset. Instead, I shorted the dollar at high leverage. The dollar's fundamentals are wretchedly bad. In the long term, it is practically guaranteed to depreciate severely. Shorting the dollar is smart - at least in theory. The problem is that "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent", and the dollar is now in a bull-run bubble. I don't typically short anything. FAANG looked like a short, but still I hesitated. Well..i can now buy 30-50% MORE FAANG for my cash if i want to, but i won't. When you took margin longs 20 years ago as you previously described, you were shorting the dollar as priced in semi-fungible tokens called "stocks". People need to flip their thinking about BTC. "Selling" BTC means buying dollars - going long on the dollar, and doing it for cash if you are not using margin. "Buying" BTC means selling dollars - taking a short position against the dollar, even if you are not using margin to short. Shorting BTC means taking a leveraged long on the dollar. And taking a leveraged long position on BTC is short-selling the dollar on margin: Borrowing an asset that is expected to depreciate, and selling it for money. Related in concept, but not directed at you: People are way too stuck in thinking about dollars as "money", and everything else as "assets priced in money (= dollars)". It was quite the spectacle when I tried to explain some concepts to a newbie by putting them in familiar terms, based on his own experience. I told him that when he took a home purchase mortgage loan, he was shorting the dollar as priced in a non-fungible token called a "house". If the dollar rises too much, as priced in units of his house, then the lender reserves the right to call the loan due immediately, among other remedies; this is logically similar to a margin call. And indeed, all home purchase mortgages contain such terms in the fine print - although they are rarely invoked because the dollar/house market has low volatility, and dollars rarely appreciate as priced in houses. Anyway, the expense and other overhead of foreclosures usually helps to deter lenders from being overly aggressive in foreclosing unless necessary. By contrast, as I pointed out earlier, exchanges have a perverse incentive to stack the deck to create more cryptocurrency "foreclosures" (liquidations). He didn't get it. If he had understood that, then perhaps he would have been able to "get" Bitcoin. (And he would have understood why he should avoid both cryptocurrency margin accounts, and home purchase mortgages!)
Yes, I explained earlier how I got myself into such a predicament when I know all this - "I know better than that..."you are overthinking it, imho. if you bought btc with $, you are NOT shorting the dollar if your purchase was on a straight cash basis. Not anymore then when I buy milk using $. The notion that I shorted dollars by buying milk would be completely misplaced. You simply exchanged one asset for another in this case, but the analogy with the home is TRUE because it is a leveraged buy (as long as you did not pay 100% in cash). |
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Newbie question here: Is it prohibited to threaten or extort ChartBuddy? I think that if his charts do not show number going up, I may want to knee-cap him and post hacked naked pics of his sister, Tickerina. Or if he doesn't have knees because he's a robot, I could delete his config files, or drop tables in his database, or something like that. You seem to be on margin in btc.
No. I would never do something so stupid as to take a leveraged long on a highly volatile asset. Instead, I shorted the dollar at high leverage. The dollar's fundamentals are wretchedly bad. In the long term, it is practically guaranteed to depreciate severely. Shorting the dollar is smart - at least in theory. The problem is that "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent", and the dollar is now in a bull-run bubble. The only time I was on margin, 20 years ago, the end result was zeroing of my account in the Internet crash of 2001-2002.
When I tried trading tech stocks in the same time period, I managed to lose half the portfolio's original value without any margin at all. I am talented! You went all the way to zero, but you needed margin to do it. You have no skills at losing money fast. See, I can laugh about that. Because the loss was in dollars - not in Bitcoin, which did not yet exist. It's only money! imho, btc should be bought with cash only.
If you borrow money to buy btc (imho, not advisable for most with the exception of people with a huge cash flow), then borrow it OUTSIDE of the bitcoin-buying account.
See this: The problem is not borrowing money to buy BTC. (Is it a problem for Saylor?) The problem is borrowing money on the worst possible terms. Positively malicious terms.
For most other types of loans, a borrower's default is not in the lender's best interest. Collecting on defaulted accounts is lossy, and high-overhead. Therefore, even the harsher parts of the lending terms tend to be tempered by the lender's desire not to need to deal with delinquent or defaulted accounts. Most lenders seek to minimize defaults.
The entities offering cryptocurrency margin accounts have a perverse incentive to stack the loan terms to maximize borrower defaults. Want to buy BTC at a discount? Set up an exchange, offer margin accounts, wait for the dip, and then stockpile BTC in cascading liquidations!
The whole cryptocurrency margin ecosystem has the incentives of loan-sharking. Those incentives are exploited in full accord with the ethics of people who also profit from pump-and-dump Ponzi-coins.
You need to be either stupid or crazy to take a loan on these terms, for almost any purpose.
I don't typically short anything. FAANG looked like a short, but still I hesitated. Well..i can now buy 30-50% MORE FAANG for my cash if i want to, but i won't. |
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Stepping in here, because this translates to a significant probability that I will lose almost all of my BTC: I doubt that we are even close to max pain...
bears are going to push the BTC price down as low as they can and hold it there as long as they can.
Other than "buy a time machine, go back, and bat-slap myself a few months ago", do you have any suggestions for someone who fell into a margin debt trap? There are no right answers in this all-wrong situation, but I want to pick your brain. If I had been willing to "cash out" (I hate that term), I could have exited this position at $47k-48k last month, and walked away with more BTC than I started with. I didn't do that, because selling BTC is unthinkable. Instead, for much of the past week, I was liquidating other assets and pouring proceeds into the distressed account. I drew the "no more!" line on Sunday, because I could lose absolutely everything this way. To begin with, most of my liquid or liquidatable assets were in BTC - now trapped as collateral in the account that first ate all of my BTC as I added collateral to avoid losing BTC, and then has been eating everything else, too. Other things elsewhere are safe, but mostly gone already. I am good at hunkering down and waiting out bear markets, as long as I am not at liquidation risk! So for example, max pain could be going down to the 200-week moving average or even going below that and maybe staying there for a certain amount of time... sure it does not seem plausible.. but for sure manipulators shoot to achieve the implausible and to sustain it for as long as they are able.. and we know that the 200-week moving average is currently at about $21,750.
In essence, we can try to give probabilities of what max pain might be.. and for sure that is not going to be easy.. including that even seemingly low probability events could end up happening.... and for sure many guys will continue to buy. all the way down.. and for sure I would need to reassess my cashflow if we were to go below $25k..
If we go down to $25k (never mind lower), I lack sufficient assets to avoid selling most of my BTC - or worse, having it sold for me in a huge market-dump into a red candlestick, with a penalty. I can try to scrape along searching for the bottom, selling the least BTC possible with each drop (as I luckly did today). That risks my missing the crash, and getting liquidated - or miscalculating, and getting liquidated. For this reason, I have not been eating properly, sleeping properly, taking care of myself, or taking care of other things in my life - including things that could make money! I have caught it at the edge many times - each time before, liquidating other assets and pouring them in; this time, selling BTC. Now that I am run down to selling BTC, and I would be selling each local bottom before the next drop, I would sell low every time - bleeding out piece by piece, until almost nothing is left. This has been ongoing for months, in a downward spiral of ballooning debt and shrinking assets - worsened by desperate, "must do something" attempts to make money trading altcoins on margin (!), in a chain-reaction of "I know better than this!" mistakes that seemed necessary to fix earlier mistakes. My whole life is a wreck, and I am personally a mess - but never mind that; I am struggling to save my BTC, the important thing. In February's worst crash, a trusted friend advised me to exit at $35k with whatever BTC I could recover - just in case we dropped low enough to wipe me out. I replied that if I were to dump my BTC at $35k, and it turned out to be unnecessary, then I would kill myself. I meant that seriously; I was not just joking about it, as I am now (for the moment). In February, not dumping turned out to be the correct choice. Before today, I never sold even one satoshi for dollars (other than spending in normal use of Bitcoin as money).If we really go down to $25k or lower soon, the correct choice now would be to exit at $31k $30,500, dropping as I write this. Thus I would lose most of my BTC that I have held for years, to save some scraps. But I do not think that I am even psychologically capable of selling BTC, unless forced. Not selling in the bull market - and especially not selling in the bear market! I can't do it. I just can't. It is not "only money", because Bitcoin is not "only money". I've lost a lot of dollars before, laughed, and walked away - but this is Bitcoin. And if I were to dump Bitcoin at $31k $30,500, and the bottom was already in - eh, you guessed it. ☠️ So, bearing in mind that I am not strictly rational about BTC in the sense of "an economically rational actor", what is the least-bad choice?mindrust myself out? As my friend argued, the difference is that mindrust was trying to save his worthless fiat shitcoins; he was at no risk, as long as 1 BTC = 1 BTC. I am trying to save bitcoins, not dollars; and I would sell the least necessary to free up whatever little bit remains. I calculate PnL in BTC, not USD. Though having dollars is nice, because it means I can look for a good opportunity to cash out to BTC. Anyway, this option potentially carries a very expensive cost externality, as aforesaid; but I do consider all options, even the ones I immediately reject. Keep scraping along, searching for the bottom? I can currently survive down to about $29,200; with some income that I expect soon, I could push that a bit below $29k a few days from now. For every $1k drop below that, I will need to sell off a larger and larger proportion of my BTC - that is, if I catch it before the liquidator bot. But if the bottom is already in - or even if it is almost in (say, if the bottom is $28,500) - then scraping along saves BTC, just as I saved >1 BTC today by selling 0.5 BTC. Also, should I absolutely stop pouring any more assets into this account? It is a money-eating, asset-eating sinkhole - as an "economically rational actor" would have recognized long ago. The incoming money that could be used to push down my liquidation price by a hair, could also be used to buy BTC (whether now - or later during a bull run, because "incoming money" is an airdrop of an altcoin that's down much worse than BTC). But if spending it on BTC safely in my wallet causes liquidation of that account, it would be the most expensive BTC purchase ever! I emphasize again that there are no right answers in this wrong situation. There are only dilemmas, educated guesses, and attempts to pick the least-bad option. If you would be so kind as to bounce around some ideas, I will be thankful - and I may or may not do whatever you suggest. Either way, I will not blame you for the results of my own decisions, or for unheeded suggestions made in good faith (= with intent to maximize BTC, not maximize dollars) - just as I didn't blame my friend for urging me to dump and get out at $35k in February, even though it turned out to be unnecessary, and we visited $47k just over a month later. And the posing of questions in a conversational way does not preclude the offering of other thoughts. [Edited to fix a thought that got logically disconnected in the writing process, due the second-order effects of being glued to the chart without adequately eating or sleeping.] You seem to be on margin in btc. The only time I was on margin, 20 years ago, the end result was zeroing of my account in the Internet crash of 2001-2002. imho, btc should be bought with cash only. If you borrow money to buy btc (imho, not advisable for most with the exception of people with a huge cash flow), then borrow it OUTSIDE of the bitcoin-buying account. Just an opinion, not financial advice. |
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proudhon's stash+ other itchy fingers? lol More like the LUNA wallet. I am sure proudhon still holds his 0.1 BTC somewhere. rumor (actually, his own post, lol) was that at some point he had >5K, but less than 20K btc. |
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proudhon's stash+ other itchy fingers? lol I can live if bitcoin dies, but gosh, it would be a 13 year head-fake. How often do those occur? Never? |
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Terrawhat?
Seriously, if it hadn't been mentioned, I never would have known it existed.
Who cranks out all these garbage "stablecoins" anyway? And why would anyone trust them?
well, bitcoin peeps were applauding them buying $3 bil in btc to support their scheme. nobody (or almost nobody) was complaining. That's the best joke. Buying BTC for advertisement and then being forced to sell it at a loss 1 month later. These guys get the award for the most gigantic paper hands ever, trading like a noob. I give at least 60/40 chance that we should expect the same from Saylor (that he might sell into a margin call this year). It seems that EVERYONE who either buys bitcoin on margin OR does some bitcoin-unrelated stuff, is being shaken off eventually. Bitcoin is like a wild stallion that does not allow anyone to saddle it. |
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Terrawhat?
Seriously, if it hadn't been mentioned, I never would have known it existed.
Who cranks out all these garbage "stablecoins" anyway? And why would anyone trust them?
well, bitcoin peeps were applauding them buying $3 bil in btc to support their scheme. nobody (or almost nobody) was complaining. |
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so lemme get this straight. They make a "stablecoin" pegged 1:1 USD:token. Then they "raise" money, or sell it and use those funds to "back it". They make money from all investment income from that like tether investing in commercial paper in china and stuff. adds up quickly when you have billions outstanding. but in this case instead of USD they bought BTC, but still pegged 1:1 USD:token. right ? but this makes no logical sense at all. they rely on arbitrageurs https://decrypt.co/resources/what-is-terra-algorithmic-stablecoin-protocol-explained...but what if arbs pull out...then you have a crash like today. they might be finished (or not), but we shall see. if not, some deep pockets might make up to $ ten billions today. |
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I hope btc can hold, but something "funny" is going on with Terra/Luna and UST (stable $1 coin which is down to 86c now).
I think that this system (which bought quite a bit of btc) is "blowing up".
Have to mention this because their buying of 1.5 bil btc was considered "good news" and now it (their algorithmic system) seems to be at least under severe stress (if not outright broken).
IMHO, underlying all this is a "power move" of usdt/usdc companies against the algorithmic ones (like Luna).
We shall see how it shakes out.
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Sorry, all of the predictions above may happen, indeed, which then would makes bitcoin just an oscillator (if at or below 20K happens).
It would violate ALL prior history, and would make this asset a stochastic one (random walk), diminishing it's future to a large degree.
I would dare to say that IF below 20K happens, then above 100K would NEVER happen.
The world would just move on to new things.
So, ladies and gents...buy..buy buy somewhere between 20K and current 33.7K or say bye-bye to it as an investment.
jmho
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