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There is a spot of "yang" (light) in "yin" (dark).
...the current negativity would probably result (at some point) in a strong up-move.
Timing it is not easy, though...so I don't care to time anything.
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When we go sub $30k, who sold at the bottom?  Who's our next Mindrust? . . . . . Too soon? Duh! We are still above 34K. Personally, I don't have any bitcoin on exchanges, apart from few thou sats. Going down with the ship, captain! |
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When Bloomberg looked into how things were going yesterday at 5:15pm, only 110 transactions had been made. By the end of the day, according to crypto tracking platform Dune Analytics, there had only been 40 more. This amounted to less than $75,000 in sales. The platform had 1,120 users at the close of the day. A recent Wall Street Journal report found that NFT sales have fallen 92 percent since their peak last year https://mashable.com/article/coinbase-nft-marketplace-launchCrash and burn bitches. And that 75 grand were wash trades I'd wager. I agree with the sentiment, but WS numbers cannot be accurate for the area as a whole. Last week some "vitrual' land sale basically broke cough-eth-cough for a day. Fees alone were more than $100mil. I did not partake, but saw the info on the interwebs. I have no interest in pic NFTs whatsoever. |
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My try: Drawing patterns and lines that help deciding for trading options based on probabilities. But, are there actually patterns? Is it, indeed, a matter of probabilities? Or, formulated more properly: Can you prove that it's a matter of probabilities? Nobody has a clue. The only thing people base ANY predictions on is the historical evidence. Historically, stock market does not go down more than about 50% (when there is inflation; in 1930ies deflation it went down 89%). In bitcoin, TYPICAL decrease from the blow off top is 82-85% (basically 1/5 to 1/6 of high). However, late 2021 had NO blowoff top and extension from the prior top was only about 3.25X, vs prior 17X and 36X before. Therefore, no REAL TA is possible as no-blowoff top situation happened for the first time. My hope is that 80ish percent drop is, therefore, unnecessary, but who knows. Here is my probabilistic "TA": we hold 30K and in the absolute worst revisit the 200Wk average (about 22K now and still rising). |
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It is a fuckin shit show.
As per Guardian, they talk indirectly via Israel premier now. Maybe too little too late, maybe not. The 30K-60K bitcoin range is holding, but no expected bounce to 50K so far, a bummer. |
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Dan Morehead had the first bitcoin fund (anywhere in the world, it seems). Now he also talks about "crypto" (which some dislike), but here is his MACRO opinion: https://panteracapital.com/blockchain-letter/the-first-truly-global-global-macro-trade/Most important part: "I can imagine a world with bond yields above 5.0%, stocks are down from today’s level, real estate is down, and blockchain is up 10x." If "blockchain" translates as "bitcoin", then it would be a priceless opportunity...but we already know that. |
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OMG, you are the kind of person that would object to liberating Europe from Hitler because the cost to the taxpayer is too high. Som things have no price. Totally different scenario. Hitler was actively bombing the UK and had invaded the Channel islands. Also important to note, Hitler rose to power on the back of the west/world sanctioning and isolating Germany after WW1. But importantly he didn't have the largest arsenal of nuclear weapons on the planet, as Russia does. I'm increasingly sceptical /worried about what this proxy war is leading to and yes I am starting to think, regardless of what the media writes in the west, that the Ukraine is a lost cause. Sure, if a "bit" of money can help solve problems I'm all for that. But western governments don't exactly have a great track record in this recently. If anything, often things seem to become much worse. The UK also has a big problem with voters quite unhappy that we got involved in the Iraq war just under 20 years ago, that was sold on a 40 minute missile strike lie to the UK population, are we sure we are being told the truth about Ukraine this time? Important to note that this time we are getting involved with a much bigger and far more determined and well equipped enemy. It's probably important to think about permanently homing Ukrainian civilians across Europe now. I doubt most of who have fled (and many who still want to) will ever want to go back, regardless of what happens. They are in my thoughts, as little difference that actually matters. Here is one of the problems with permanently homing refugees: because of the martial law that applied only to men 18-60, a large % of almost solely female population and children either already left or are displaced inside, perhaps as much as 30% women and 66% children% (5 mil women, 5mil children). This would leave Ukraine with a huge m/f dis-balance and lots of orphans. My fear is that Ukraine would simply become the area where Russia and West fight, somewhat similar to when US and China fought in Korea and when US and Russia fought in Vietnam with russians using the North vietnam proxy. A battlefield of sorts, population be damned. I see it in rus tactics: destroy a village with artillery, then advance. Fooking useless, unless it is becoming, effectively, a 'buffer zone', eventually separating the sides . IMHO, there is a need of immediate peace, otherwise stakes would keep on rising until something incomprehensible would happen. Both sides are not in the mood for it, obviously, we shall see in a few days if there is anything along the lines that british media recently suggested. Where is bitcoin here? if everyone used bitcoin, there would have been no more war as the competition would be in bitcoin accumulation, NOT in who has the most missiles/tanks, whatever. |
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My blind optimism have been right so far.
Don't you understand that people allways will be more engaged in helping their own kind than other, more distant people with whom they feel no kinship. That's why the west is helping Ukraine but not Yemen.
If you think people are color blind when it comes to people they feel kinship with, then you are the blind one.
Sorry, your casual racism made me throw up in my mouth just a little.. I feel absolutely no kinship with your pale skin, albeit my skin is on the pale side as well, but i do feel quite a lot of kinship with some people I know whose skin might be darker than mine. Gosh, talking about slight skin color deviations in the 21st century as a basis of kinship? Wow. In US most (or a large part) of the population have various degrees of chocolate-ness: from milk to dark. |
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Prediction:
Stocks are about to undergo a sharp 30-45 day bounce up to maybe breakeven for the year in SP500.
I might even buy some calls next week.
Bitcoin should go to 49-50K.
However, after this bounce, stocks would fall apart and bottom probably in the fall of 2023 at 2400 (plus minus 10%) S&P500.
Basically, a long bear market in stocks a la 2000-2002.
No prediction of btc price then as bitcoin may uncouple or not. My hope is for uncoupling.
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~snip~
Duh! I told you how to reproduce the result. Instead, you put in some arbitrary numbers (that don't have enough time resolution).
Put in the numbers i gave you and then see for yourself.
If for some reason you can't do this, i would upload the screenshot somewhere and repost here.
I don't know man... I'm a simple person I see Bitstamp's weekly on TradingView. I can't put in numbers; you can screenshot your graph here. I didn't even know Yahoo still exists lmao.This  sorry, both of you are "young" retards, it seems  . the graph is the graph. Now, go to tik-tok and post some vids there, lol. Dude, no offense, i was laughing only about that Yahoo quote. Should have removed the rest of the conversation. none taken, i was laughing as well. |
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~snip~
Duh! I told you how to reproduce the result. Instead, you put in some arbitrary numbers (that don't have enough time resolution).
Put in the numbers i gave you and then see for yourself.
If for some reason you can't do this, i would upload the screenshot somewhere and repost here.
I don't know man... I'm a simple person I see Bitstamp's weekly on TradingView. I can't put in numbers; you can screenshot your graph here. I didn't even know Yahoo still exists lmao.This sorry, both of you are "young" retards, it seems . the graph is the graph. Now, go to tik-tok, take arriemoller with you as well and teach him how to do something dramatic on tik-tok as well. |
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When was the last time BTC had 5 consecutive red weeks?
This One is the latest and only. Just in This year 2022 it comes true and Historical move that BTC made 5 Red Consistent Weekly Closing. But in 2019 two times BTC made 4 time consistent Red Weekly Closing. Source: Binance Trading History wrong! March 2020? I don't think so. Sauce? input 4/1 2019-4/30 2020 as dates, choose weekly barchart and...voila! You sure, sir?  Duh! I told you how to reproduce the result. Instead, you put in some arbitrary numbers (that don't have enough time resolution). Put in the numbers i gave you and then see for yourself. If for some reason you can't do this, i would upload the screenshot somewhere and repost here. Here you go:  |
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When was the last time BTC had 5 consecutive red weeks?
This One is the latest and only. Just in This year 2022 it comes true and Historical move that BTC made 5 Red Consistent Weekly Closing. But in 2019 two times BTC made 4 time consistent Red Weekly Closing. Source: Binance Trading History wrong! March 2020? I don't think so. Sauce? input 4/1 2019-4/30 2020 as dates, choose weekly barchart and...voila! |
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When was the last time BTC had 5 consecutive red weeks?
This One is the latest and only. Just in This year 2022 it comes true and Historical move that BTC made 5 Red Consistent Weekly Closing. But in 2019 two times BTC made 4 time consistent Red Weekly Closing. Source: Binance Trading History not really. |
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When was the last time BTC had 5 consecutive red weeks?
March 2020...hint hint...good one! (and before that in NOv-Dec 2014), did not check before that. |
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I just purchased 2 x S19a Pro's (110TH Model) this past week for just under 24K with hosting/warranty for a year.
A few months back 2 of these was over 30K...
With Btimain's XP release right around the corner I would suspect the prices to drop even further over the next 3 months.
where is that deal? thanks |
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From Arthur Hayes (from Bitmex fame): https://blog.bitmex.com/the-doom-loop/Alas, something weird found here: "It’s the foreigner’s fault! (Hmmm… sounds like a familiar play I read in 1939)." His words, not mine. The dude is supposedly born in 1985. Hmmm Probably just a "wrong turn" of the phrase, but...what else could it be? Not the case here, most likely, but sometimes I wonder if something "alien" would also be eventually revealed by a slip of the tongue in some obscure publication. TL;DR $1 mil bitcoin upon almost any reasonable scenario |
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TL;DR imho, replace advisors with VTSAX. It would simplify things and they (Vanguard) provide a nice PAL (pledged asset line) against it, I heard.
Fuck that. QQQ is a better performer. Not in the last 12 mo and not in 19 years out of the last 22 (QQQ did better in the last three). Intelligent portfolios-that is something interesting as long as it is all passive. If there is an active manager? I would never be in, if there are those, though. Well, well, upon looking it is a too broad (51!) ETF portfolio that is selected by schwab managers, so nope for me. Long term, they would screw it up, no doubt. IMHO |
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I see a geometric progression in size. What's next? candidates: Mexico, Argentina, Brazil? |
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