No, the only implicit assumption I am making here is that he is able to drive the market up and down because of his clout and larger stash of cash. Each successful cycle would only increase his momentum. A failed cycle would signal the end of the attack. The key success factor is to start with a big enough cash reserve and solid nerves..
The problem is that anyone who understands this strategy can get the same profit he does without any of the expense. Say the long-term, fair market value of bitcoins is around $10, and that's roughly where they would be if nobody manipulated them. To push coins above $10, you have to buy above $10. Anyone who understands your strategy can make you take a loss as you do this -- as big a loss as they want. To push coins below $10, you have to sell them below $10. Anyone who understands your strategy can make you take a loss as you do this -- as big a loss as they want. Now, say you succeed. You push the price down to $7 and some people panic sell. Now, you have to compete with everyone who knows what you're doing for a share of the underpriced bitcoins. You have no special way to hog them. And say you push the price up to $13 and some people still buy. Now, you have to compete with everyone who knows what you're doing for a share of the better sale opportunity. You have no special advantage over everyone else. Now, despite all this, you might still think you could make a profit. Maybe, because you know when and how much you're going to manipulate, that gives you an advantage. But the problem is this -- the further the price is from its natural price, the most it costs to move it and the easier it can return to its natural price. So while going from $10 to $11 might not be that expensive, going from $11 to $12 is much, much worse. Not only do you take twice as much loss on every bitcoin. But more people catch on that the price is significantly higher than it should be and more people are induced to sell. And the more easily it returns to its regular price. I personally know several people who are just waiting for such a manipulation to be attempted and have the funds to profit from it. Any manipulator will have to make them as rich as he makes himself, and he will bear all the costs. Many have tried this strategy. Billions have been lost. Joel, you made my day using the Bitcoin Magazine cartoon of you as your avatar. ^5 |
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Can i up my bet from 250 to 1000? Or is that strictly
for hedgers now.
You may in fact. Please state your amount clearly so that I may quote it without confusion. |
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Matt,
I understand if this is only for people hedging. I obviously have no exposure to BCST in any way.
I'd like to increase my wager to 500 BTC
17ByDBb93SP3guxJ7Sqcbz7peoaiBSkGdu
Acknowledged. |
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Paid. (Completely inexcusable, but I support him and will cover this debt.) Status: 0/unconfirmed, broadcast through 6 nodes
Date: 8/24/2012 07:26
To: 1BBDrjFdoKSQqXgAmSt5Ng5RHNvTytiqey
Debit: -9.88145221 BTC
Net amount: -9.88145221 BTC
Transaction ID: adeb5fb6f2e5be0028f565e0250625760c4a13b655381f29f457efc8eacb8e49
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After poking my wallet a bit, I'd like to increase my previous bet to:
20 BTC
1FXWXErhhfdrGvu65earaRss5wNcyigupL
Still not entirely sure what Matthew's point is with all this, but I suspect it may not work out the way he's hoping it to.
Accepted. |
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The time you spent on the project should not be ignored, I hope you are able to get payment. (I know that feeling)
Yeah, I'm getting deja vu here... Remember me? (At least OP didn't go starting a thread telling everyone to "abuse the work freely") |
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Are decreases allowed? Basically:
- I've found a potential hedging opportunity
- I want to get my increase in before the thread is locked but...
- If I'm outbid, I want to decrease back to 0.1 and...
- I don't want the thread to be locked while the opportunity is still floating
Please handle your own finances on your own, no offense. Bets are final, only increases are allowed. |
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I have a theory why people give away coins so easily--- because bitcoin doesn't feel like real money to most people. It feels fake still because never in the history of mankind could "money" be spent so easily and so quickly. That's a feature AND a bug, a bug for people who are ignorant and toss their money around on credit cards thinking they can chargeback later.
Bottom line, 10,000BTC was bet for an opinion. That doesn't happen in USD.
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If I may, I'd like to up my bet to 5 BTC in a strange manner.
- If I do not visit these forums for a period of 24 hours or more, lower my bet back to 0.1 BTC
- If the thread is locked before I call off the above term, lower my bet back to 0.1 BTC
- Once I secure the hedging opportunity, I will call off the above terms; my bet will stand at 5 BTC regardless.
- I can lower my bet back to 0.1 BTC by posting that I wish to do so in this thread.
Sorry, no rule changes. Straight bet only. Normal increases allowed. |
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I am now home so I can post in the proper format, please accept this bet.
10BTC
19hDMXX5gMagyAcaQFoU4CrkmaDoz9kSSK
Thanks
Acknowledged. |
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750BTC
14ZYVka4JkLvxdRJuuX9odyijGLEwJAbec
I am hedging.
Acknowledged. |
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you actually paid an ad spot for this thread?
He's probably just desperate to document the one time females have touched him. ?? What do you mean ?? "HORRAY CHEAP OLIVE OIL" |
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Ok. Not sure what technicality do you plan to use to win the bet but I'm in for the LULz.
1Epv7KHbNjYzqYVhTCgXWYhGSkv7BuKGEU
13.37BTC
weekend wasted != wasted weekend
Lol. Accepted. |
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It's been an honor to have helped you keep track of your *cough* winnings  You kick ass! It's ironic that loudmouthed over-confident decriers brought me to make a bet, and loudmouthed over-confident decriers end up plaguing my bet thread. I guess I need to find another way to bankrupt your defaming, accusatory asses. I'll think of something next week. Get your coins ready!
Matt you are so damn awesome, this is the most entertaining thread ever. I just can't wait too see how it concludes... If I win I'm flying to Italy to finally meet you. I'm also gonna find Bitscalper. |
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I've actually already PMed him before you posted this, that's very thoughtful of you though ^_^ |
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Just wanted to give a formal notice regarding all current bets (shown at https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ajtx05YrHtIydFVHcGxLOExTbnhqajJLZmlSZUNtM3c#gid=0): As of writing this, there are only 2844.10885543Ƀ remaining to bet with. Since it seems everyone who has detracted pirate as a "read the writing on the wall" ponzi has bet (except one), I am now offering the remaining 2844.10885543 Ƀ to hedgers who would like to protect themselves from losses. For this reason, I will up the maximum bet to the entire sum of 2844.10885543 Ƀ (I have been made aware of numerous individuals who have invested a much larger amount than that into pirate). Good luck to everyone. |
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I'd like to place a 100BTC bet, if a trusted member is willing to act as an escrow agent.
CR
I'll escrow it for you, no charge. Send me a PM, or just send it to my public firstbits address, and I'll up my own bet to 130 BTC (from 30). Thanks for the offer, Matthew said that since I'm a donor he'd take my bet even though my post count is low. 100BTC 1PeQkW5VxREJDkCgBcsXe7CuZrfA3Uy7zn CR Acknowledged. |
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If you're betting that Pirate will pay out, you can invest in https://glbse.com/asset/view/TYGRR.BOND-PIt is a bond worth 1BTC stake in BS&T. Since Pirate has defaulted the bonds are not currently being bought back and are priced around 0.6-0.7BTC But if Pirate repays then the bond will return to 1 BTC. Just out of curiosity, if Pirate does default, will those bonds become not back by anything, and basically be like fiat currency? Worse than fiat currency, because they are backed by entirely nothing (not even the force of the government) and run the risk of being delisted, effectively removing its value as a store of value. Imagine money that not only nobody wants, but may also disappear whenever. Isn't the GLBSE fantastic? I'd trust it with my Life.....cereal. |
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bet 350 btc
1DQSai4K5R6bVhBSB7X3C7PWUVpByT7PpQ
with agreed to terms by both parties... and credit established by myself
Acknowledged. |
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Seems to me this isn't really even money (in dollars), in that if Pirate pays out, there will be a flood of people selling their proceeds, pushing the price of BTC down. So dust either wins a lot or loses a little?
No one long on BTC thinks that way. |
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