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2481  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Test Cricket Prediction and Discussion Thread [self - mod] on: January 07, 2021, 04:24:25 PM
It should be close to 400, batting is going to be more comfortable from day 2 and Aussie already going at 3+ run rate. So close to 400 shouldn't be big task even if they bat only 2 sessions.

India would be very happy if they restrict them under 350 as average total in Sydney is close to 400ish runs. (Edit: in recent years)

Anything above 300 is going to put Indian in a difficult situation. It is not that hard anyway. Steve Smith is not in good form and only Marnus Labuschagne has scored runs on a consistent basis. If India manages to get one or two quick wickets at the start of play tomorrow, then they may be able to restrict Australia to 290-300. Momentum is with India after the second test and they needs to make sure that it stays that way.
2482  Economy / Speculation / Re: BTC crossed $34K. $40K this week? on: January 07, 2021, 04:14:21 PM
$39,000 reached now. We are just 1K away from 40K. I expect the prices to touch $40K by either today or tomorrow. There seems to be hardly any resistance in the markets and the bears have vanished altogether. Compare this to the scenario we had in December, when it took almost four months to breach the resistance at 20K. BTW, when I started typing this post, Bitcoin had just breached $39,000. Right now the exchange rate is $39,300.
2483  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Remember when ETH was $1400 a few years ago then crashed to $70 as BTC crashed? on: January 07, 2021, 12:26:00 PM
It will be wrong to say that Ethereum crashed because the same happened to Bitcoin. Ethereum reached ATH level three years ago, on 14th January 2018 ($1,422 as per Coinmarketcap). At that time, Bitcoin was undergoing a steep correction, with the prices having fallen from $20,000 to around $14,000 per coin in a matter of few weeks. Ethereum prices started crashing only in February 2018.
2484  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin dominance hits 57.7%, alts lagging behind on: January 07, 2021, 12:10:57 PM
Here are the latest stats, as of 7th January 2021.

Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) added as a separate category

Total market cap: $1,005,601,480,812 (+14.73%) (All time high, around 25% higher than the peak level of 2018).

Bitcoin: $701,318,550,711 (69.741%)
Bitcoin forks: $11,970,371,398 (1.190%)
Stablecoins: $30,521,509,959 (3.035%)
Altcoins: $257,446,685,026 (25.601%)
WBTC: $4,344,363,718 (0.432%)

This is the change compared to my last post:

Bitcoin: -2.832%
Bitcoin forks: -0.033%
Stablecoins: -0.224%
Altcoins: +2.657%
WBTC: -0.000%


Here are the latest stats, as of 3rd January 2021.

From this post onward, I have added the market cap of Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) to that of Bitcoin. Earlier it was included within the altcoin section.

Total market cap: $876,467,330,368 (+21.48%) (All time high, around 10% higher than the peak level of 2018).

Bitcoin: $636,082,722,096 (72.573%)
Bitcoin forks: $10,719,023,429 (1.223%)
Stablecoins: $28,567,926,171 (3.259%)
Altcoins: $201,097,658,672 (22.944%)

This is the change compared to my last post:

Bitcoin: +2.970%
Bitcoin forks: -0.123%
Stablecoins: -0.483%
Altcoins: -2.364%
2485  Economy / Economics / Re: Second lockdown due to covid19 is painful on: January 07, 2021, 11:43:20 AM
I'm sure that we are from different countries, but I can confirm that you say that second lockdown is not effective. We are having a lockdown (but not strict), a curfew, different limitations on goods and places to visit, but still number of cases remain the same. It is either people disobey the rules and got sick, or media and statistics lies. I know cases, when people spent all the time at home, order food online and still manage to get infected.

I guess the youth got tired of sitting at home. It has been almost 1 year, without parties, shopping and movie watching. Those who are middle-aged or elderly would understand the risk, but it will be very difficult to reason with the youngsters. And the irony is that the youth is almost safe from COVID 19 (their fatality rate is like 0.1% or so), but they are much more likely to spread the disease to others.
2486  Economy / Economics / Re: Fake COVID-19 vaccines....by Paying in Bitcoins on: January 07, 2021, 10:28:36 AM
Absolutely, why bother getting it somewhere else if you can get it directly from hospitals or even from the government. It's scary to take a vaccine even if it approved by the government since there is no assurance if there are no long-term side-effects from it, what more if you will get it from the black market or deep web. If you can get it from legitimate source or if it's from the manufacturer it will be dumb to get a vaccine via deep web even if they sell it cheaper, never risk your safety and health.

People are trying to purchase it from the dark market, because the vaccine is not available in the hospitals. Limited doses of the vaccine is available and they are reserved for the priority population (i.e elderly people, hospital staff.etc). General population may not get a chance to get vaccinated at least until Q3 2021 in most of the developed nations. For the developing nations, I don't expect it before 2022.
2487  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [Boxing] Floyd Mayweather vs. Logan Paul - February 20 on: January 07, 2021, 10:16:21 AM
Conor is a fighter, he knows how to box, got a professional license in boxing, therefore I think he can survive with Mayweather though he cannot beat him. Mayweather is just too smart and too good, him fighting a non boxer gives him an edge, just like him cherry picking his opponent to stay undefeated.

This is an accusation I have heard a lot of times (especially from Pacquiao fans), that Mayweather cherrypicks his opponents in order to remain undefeated. I have to say that there is no basis to such allegations. Pacquiao challenged Mayweather for a fight, which the latter accepted in 2015. He defeated Pacquiao fair and square. Pacquiao wanted a rematch, but Mayweather disagreed, saying that he don't want to fight the same opponent again and again.
2488  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Test Cricket Prediction and Discussion Thread [self - mod] on: January 07, 2021, 10:03:17 AM
After such a horrible start, Australia managed to reach 166/2. I wasn't impressed with his performance during the warmup matches, but today he handled the Indian bowlers really well (aided by some poor fielding from the other side). Now it is up to the top Australian partnership of Steven Smith and Marnus Labuschagne. Tomorrow we will get an idea about which way this match is going to swing.
2489  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Test Cricket Prediction and Discussion Thread [self - mod] on: January 07, 2021, 04:20:15 AM
All eyes will be on Rohit Sharma in this test. Saw a couple of overs of Md Shiraz, this guy is bowling with a lot of confidence. He took the crucial wicket of David Warner. Google probability score still states a 60 percent chance for Australia to win this test. Let's see how it changes as the game progresses.

Just ridiculous. Australia at 31/1 and they have lost one of their top batsman. And Google predictor claims that there is a 60% chance for Australian win? Either they are not going by the real-time score, or they are giving too much advantage to Australia on the basis of toss and home advantage. The momentum is with India and they have the advantage after Warner got out.
2490  Economy / Economics / Re: Buying a Tesla with Bitcoin on: January 06, 2021, 06:10:54 PM
That is correct buying a car could either be a good investment or not. If you own a business or you use cars to go from one place to another for business purposes it could be a good investment. But buying one just to show-off and for fun or collection is not a wise move. My business professor at university used to tell us if you want to invest in cars make sure that you are buying one for business purposes, there are a lot of expenses in owning a car such as maintenance, gas, toll fees, etc. and if you are not using it to earn, the don't buy it.

Purchasing an automobile can never be an investment, unless you are purchasing antique pre-WW2 items. There is no luxury/sports car out there, which will not get depreciated as time progresses. And since that is the case, going by the default definition we can't classify them as any sort of investment. And BTW, having a Tesla is now like a status symbol. Forget about the investment. If you want to show off, then go for it.
2491  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: The Alt Season Has Started on: January 06, 2021, 05:58:30 PM
I don't think that the trend is going to hold. The altcoin prices are going up, but I can't find a single logical reason behind it, other than the carry over effect from Bitcoin. During the past 12 months, I haven't read a single article on any increase in altcoin acceptability, or increased mainstream adoption. The current rally just reminds me of the boom and bust of 2018.
2492  Economy / Economics / Re: Loan scam in India allegedly headed by a Chinese Narional on: January 06, 2021, 05:48:20 PM
The concern isn't related to just one app though. If you search on playstore, there are thousands of "instant loan" apps and many of them are based on India as well. These loan providers doesn't give loan for many months, they give for tenures like 7 days or 15 days with very very high rate of interest. I have had experience with one such app, and if you are late for repaying by even one single day, they will start to call your contacts and threaten them even. It's high-time that government should do something about these apps and their owners. These app owners and their collection team should be immediately jailed without any parole for atleast 10 years. Their harrasment has lead to suicide of many victims.

You should look in to both the sides. In many cases, the loans are being taken by young people who are addicted to gambling or games such as online rummy. These inexperienced people believe they can become millionaires overnight and then get ruined financially by chasing after the losses. At least in 50% of the cases, the victims will be those who took loans to indulge in gambling.
2493  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Test Cricket Prediction and Discussion Thread [self - mod] on: January 06, 2021, 05:36:04 PM
I think he has doubts about the future of Pakistan cricket because of the corruption in the Pakistan Cricket Board. Their cricket board is much more corrupt. If the team management does not like a player, no matter how talented he is, he is not given a chance to play in the national team. We have seen such examples. If such corruption continues, the future of Pakistan will be really bleak.

Well.. then have a team coach from some foreign country such as Australia and give him the responsibility of team selection. That should end the controversy surrounding bias and favoritism in selection. But this is not unusual for sub-continent teams. Even in India, sometimes the selection of certain players can be controversial. Whatever controversy is there, it should not impact the team bonding.
2494  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Test Cricket Prediction and Discussion Thread [self - mod] on: January 06, 2021, 05:04:05 PM
New Zealand is improving a lot in cricket. They are learning from their past mistakes and correcting them. I am especially fascinated by watching their Test matches. They are very strong now in the test format. They have the ability to compete competitively against any team in the Big 3.

They have a very strong team, with world class batsmen such as Kane Williamson and excellent pace bowling lineup including Trent Boult, Kyle Jamieson, Lockie Ferguson, Tim Southee.etc. They have also benefited from South African players moving in to NZ (especially Neil Wagner, BJ Watling, Devon Conway.etc). I would rather say that NZ is one of the strongest teams in test cricket.
2495  Economy / Speculation / Re: Cash out or HODL - Bitcoin? on: January 06, 2021, 07:59:43 AM
When you created this thread a few days ago, the price of bitcoin  was still at $22xxx  and  increased  to $23000  to date  already $32K.
If you still hold it, you get a lot of profit. So no one can know for sure if bitcoin is going to go up this fast. We can’t even guess if bitcoin
could have dropped again to $22k. But if that happens, just be prepared to buyback.  If you  look at  the current price,  I’m sure  bitcoin
will be a better value. But of course there will be corrections.

The Bitcoin prices are not going to go up forever. At some point the rally will be snapped and an extended phase of correction may start. Now this phase may come after Bitcoin reach an exchange rate of $40K, or even $100K. No one can predict with certainity. The best investors are not those who hold their assets for infinite period of time. Rather, the best ones know when to book their profits at the right time.
2496  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin gradually clinching to $40k on: January 06, 2021, 07:48:42 AM
$40k is imminent IMHO in just 2-3 days from now we will see new ATH again I remember last week almost everyday we saw new ATH which possible to happen again this week the correction is almost -25% and easily recovered in just an hour yes thats how strong the bull right now all dip will be eaten so fast that you cant even imagine lol.

Whatever excess supply which was there in 2019 and first half of 2020 has vanished completely now. After the third block reward halving market was starting to experience a supply crunch, which has reached critical level now. The only risk factor right now is some regulatory action form the SEC or the FinCen. If there is no such negative action from the regulators, then the path towards 50K should be very smooth.
2497  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Test Cricket Prediction and Discussion Thread [self - mod] on: January 06, 2021, 06:20:13 AM
"Big 3" title is never given on the basis of performance.  Smiley

I guess the term "Big 3" first came in to picture a decade or so ago, when the heads of BCCI/ECB/CA (N Srinivasan/Giles Clarke/Wally Edwards) formed a cartel to monopolize cricketing revenues. It had nothing to do with the actual performance on the ground, but more to do with the money power. But performance in the long term is also related to the financials, we are now finding out. Smaller boards such as SLCB and PCB got a smaller share of revenue and as a result their cricketing infrastructure deteriorated. And in the long term, their performance also went down.
2498  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Combination of Vaccines (PFIZER and ASTRAZENECA) on: January 06, 2021, 04:03:20 AM
This seems very utopic to be honest, as far as I heard the Pfizer/biontech vaccine cost around 20$  while the Astrazeneca one costs only 2$. With such huge differences in prices the production of the two vaccines must be completely different. Also the vaccination is being organised by the government's who will buy bulks of the vaccine at once. For logistical purposes it's best to stick to one type.

Let's say you are thinking about purchasing a phone. You have two options. The first one is to go for iPhone 12 Pro, which will cost you around $1,000. The second option is to go for a cheaper phone with the same specification, from either Xiaomi or Samsung. The second option would be cheaper. But do you expect the phone to be as efficient as the Apple phone? Same is the case between these two vaccines. The first one is having an efficiency of 95%, while the vaccine from Astrazeneca has only 62% efficiency. If you get vaccinated using the Pfizer vaccine, there is only a 5% chance of getting infected. It increases to 38% with Astrazeneca. 
2499  Other / Politics & Society / Re: US Elections 2020 - very self such moderated on: January 06, 2021, 03:38:18 AM
Guess this election is over, already. Dem's take both seats. Democrats outperformed in almost all the counties that I looked at and Atlanta still hasn't reported which will, at minimum, split like 80/20 democrat. Looked all over the map and couldn't find any areas in which GOP were outperforming.

According to the NYT election needle, Warnock is expected to win with a margin of +1.8%, while Ossoff may win with a margin of +0.9%. It looks as if the Republican turnout was quite low for this election, probably disappointed by the outcome of the November elections. So it means a 51-49 majority for Democrats in the select (if we add Murkowski in the Democrat column).
2500  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Altcoin pump and dump on: January 05, 2021, 06:34:35 AM
If you manage your risk accordingly and don't overexpose yourself to projects you don't really understand the fundamentals of you can afford the odd miscalculation. I think now is the time for pragmatism. I have been looking for as many projects I feel confident in (team, product, etc.) and now have a degree of comfort because even if some do turn out to be "pump and dumps" these should be highly out numbered by decent projects.

Many of the projects start well. But after sometime, the promoters will start secretly dumping their tokens and gradually the development work will come to a standstill. The inventors are not going to notice it until too late. That is why I am reluctant to invest in new projects, no matter how promising they may sound. The idea may be really good. But there is no guarantee that the promoters will stay on till the end.
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