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2601  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Sport's betting experience on: January 08, 2022, 12:42:12 PM

 This tips dose not work for 100%, so bet your own risk.


Unfortunately there are no real safe bets in sport games, except if the game is rigged, but how will we ever find out if a game is manipulated. I like your approach to bet on the favorite. In the German Bundesliga I am doing the same betting on either Bayern or Dortmund. If the odds are around 1.40 and below it's a good way to make some profits. In the past I was more risk friendly and looked for high payout bets but in the long run it didn't really pay off. Smaller but more steady profits is better approach for me. Any high risk bet I would only consider in very small amounts.
2602  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoins and Video games on: January 08, 2022, 12:28:13 PM
I am not familiar with games that give you money in form of crypto currencies for playing. Usually the developers looking to be paid by the customer and not the other way round. There are however third party companies who offer payments for playing as a form of advertising. I know this from CSGO where casino websites over you free raffles and giveaways if you wear their name in you game tag. There are different levels for participating, I would say this only make sense if you play regularly. The payment is usually in skins which you than can sell for bitcoins at some of the exchanges. Here I would recommend to first gather some skins and cases and trade them up all together in one valuable skins. Like that it's much easier to sell it with less fees.
2603  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Btc is boring on: January 08, 2022, 08:31:06 AM

Right now even if btc will make moves 20% up or down...its really nothing.
If anything can give us 100%-10000% price volatility then im sure grayscale whales and wall street will stay alone with their bitcoins.


You are right that there are speculators in the Bitcoin market who only look for large gains and making the most profit. But I wouldn't say that this is the majority of investors. The most people I know who hold bitcoins do so as a long term investment, they wouldn't sell if there was another 20% price movement. As for the volatility I think it's kind of normal as the number of traders and investors increase so does the volatility if there are bad news. So far the changes ar not in the 100-10000% range, I think this was in the past and bitcoin is more stable than that now. Are you not happy of the rally last year or would you have preferred BTC being constant at 10,000 USD without any volality?
2604  Economy / Economics / Re: BTC: is it really bearish? on: January 07, 2022, 12:13:22 PM
Hard to say right now, there are many voices that claim we are already in the next bear market. I don't buy into this new downward trend. It seems more like a correction in the general upwards trend of Bitcoins. Like in your picture I think that prices are still high and bitcoins should be rising again in the near future. There is however a risk that too many people buy into the bearish news and a real panic selling can occur. A big crash is always a downward spiral that can force people even if they still believe in the project. We humans are herd animals that like to follow each other. Seeing many people run for the door can tricker a panic by itself. That's why best to resist and hope bitcoins will bounce back stronger than ever soon.
2605  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Should we sell all crypto now? on: January 07, 2022, 11:57:06 AM
All crypto is dropping now because of FED. It seems that it’s the start of the bearish market. Should we sell all crypto now?

No never. I don't think it's a good idea to sell All crypto coins at once. I made this mistake a few years ago and regret it ever since. Selling all coins at once could make us miss out on the next rally. First of all, do we really believe the time of crypto currencies is over now? I don't think so. While the FED decision came as a surprise for some, it was just a matter of time for it to happen. Also Kazakhstan might seem really bad right now but we need to wait for long term effects to be visible. Panic selling is not the best idea. If you need money take some profits, just don't sell all of it. I would recommend to keep at least some coins.
2606  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Leverage Trading on: January 07, 2022, 11:37:57 AM
Hello,
is there any difference between a trade with 5.000$ with 1x leverage and on the other hand 100$ with 50x leverage?
The only difference I see is the liquidation price of course. But is there any other differnce?
Thank you all, Frank

With leverage of 1 you probably mean a normal long position. You probably own the underlying asset directly and experience any change in price 1 to 1 in your portfolio. If there is a crash in the market the price will drop close to 0, but you can't lose more than your original 5000 USD. As for the 50x leverage here you probably don't own any underlying asset and just a contract that participates you on the price movement. The biggest issue for me is that your losses are not limited to the 100 USD investment. You could lose much more than that.
2607  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Don't bet more than you can afford to lose. on: January 07, 2022, 11:20:07 AM


So, I have a question here, if you are earning like $2000 a month, how much are you willing to gamble that you think you can afford to lose?
Please use the amount as a basis for your answer.


2000 USD per month might seem a lot at first and could trick us into gambling with higher stakes than we can afford. But we should never look at our actual salary when it comes to gambling but rather at our free money per month after paying all bills and necessary purchases. If we gamble with all our money and lose it, how can we pay for our life?

For example, let's say we have too pay 800 for rent, 200 for the car gas and insurance, 600 for food and 150 for savings and retirement fund. Than we would have only 250 USD gambling actually. I would also divide it into weekly allowances. So we have like 60 USD per week for gambling. This is not so much compared to our salary but it is still good to gamble lower stakes. And if we make a profit every month we can start growing our bankroll.
2608  Economy / Economics / Re: Only 3 hedge funds outperformed the S&P in 2021 on: January 07, 2022, 10:55:26 AM


It is not worth paying high commissions to have a small chance of beating the index. If you buy the index directly you have a clear probability of more than 90% of having a higher return than the rest of the industry.



This is exactly why I stopped buying any new investment funds. I still hold two in my stock portfolio because they performed exceptionally well in the past and I don't want to realise any investment gains for tax purposes right now, so I just let them running. The whole financial industry is about making the banker and the investment manager rich. Like all the big funds require you to pay a commissions of 2-5% before even making any returns. Than you have the the yearly fee of another 1-3% that is even paid when the fund turns a loss and on top of that the hedge fund will take 10-20% of any profit he makes. These fees are way too high compared to less than 0.5% per year for ETF funds.
2609  Economy / Services / Re: WINZ.IO Casino Signature and avatar Campaign(OPEN)(NEW RATES) on: January 06, 2022, 08:44:37 AM
I have an open space for sr member or under, please apply in thread.


Bitcointalk Username: Mauser
Profile link: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=854667
Btc Address: bc1qkpqwzqew88u7l7rfmlyayyn4alqz9a465v2r99
Post Count: 4215 (with this one)
Forum Rank: Sr. Member
Wear sig and avatar: Yes
2610  Economy / Services / Re: [Close] BET SPIDER Signature Campaign | The Hot & 👩‍ Fun Place | Sr+ on: January 02, 2022, 11:04:55 PM
Payment sent: fef421fd1b320f03bf962a5f64e65449e6021f82b95629fbefa3fa907718847b

We are closed officially.

Thanks to all again.

Thank you Royse and Bet Spider for the great campaign. Hope there will be another round again soon.
2611  Economy / Economics / Re: Are we in a bear trap? on: December 28, 2021, 02:42:23 PM
Doesn't look like a bear trap to me at the moment, rather a sideways trend. I'm December we had a couple of negative news that prevented a recovery, but it's also not too bad. Now during the holiday season I would expect most traders to lay low, same goes for the first 2 weeks in 2022. Since bitcoins still seem strong around the 50,000 USD barrier I would expect a rise again in spring next year. So waiting now for prices like 35,000 USD doesn't seem realistic. Hoping for the perfect price to buy might end up missing out on the next rally.
2612  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Animal racing on: December 28, 2021, 02:33:38 PM
As the festivities get high in spirit a lot of players are now taking part in different games in my neighborhood I saw some individuals playing different games with animals from horse to bull and even cow racing all over the street and I stop to wonder if this kind of game healthy for those animals some people think that using animals for such games is being harsh on the animal well being.

I never heard of cow racing before, sounds a bit crazy for my taste. Horse racing is very common in my country, but these are not normal horses, they are trained only for racing. There is a large industry behind it because so much money is involved and gambled on their races. I don't think it's right use the cattle that just stands on the field all day for racing. The animals could really harm themselves. Hope this doesn't happen to often.
2613  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What is the single worst piece of advice you ever received relative to Bitcoin? on: December 27, 2021, 09:09:40 AM
I often read lists of tips and other best practices in the Bitcoin world, but i thought it would be interesting to share the worst Bitcoin advice you may have received throughout your adventure in this incredible monetary revolution.

Interesting question, there were a few things I thought was a tip and ended up hurting me. One of the biggest mistakes I made because of recommendations from others was to sell my bitcoins and move into alt coins. The coin I switched into lost 50% while bitcoins made a few hundred percent. Its always hard to follow a tip and see the market move against me. After that I realised that even the best tip is no guarantee for success. Should be a good summary of things to avoid for beginners.
2614  Economy / Gambling / Re: Using multiple betting accounts (Bet365 etc.) on: December 27, 2021, 08:46:24 AM
I tried it once in the past to have multiple accounts, it was a bad idea. In the end I just lost time, money and nerves. When I first tried online betting I found a website that gave some bonuses for new customers. With my first account I lost all the bonuses without winning anything, so I created a new account. I did this a few times until I got lucky and made a good profit. But when I tried to withdraw my money the problem started. In my opinion its better to stick to one account that is verified, like this the chances of running into issues are the smallest.
2615  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Merry Christmas! on: December 26, 2021, 11:29:47 AM

Merry Christmas to you too. 80,000 USD doesn't sound much in some countries, but can make you feel rich in other countries. Wealth is always a relative term depending on the prices in a country. In New York you won't get far with the 80k but in a rural farm city in South America you can buy a lot with that money. Its of course an average and most people will be either above of below.



XBX Index prices. Chistmas Day.


2014: $323
2015: $458
2016: $897
2017: $14,577
2018: $4028
2019: $7252
2020: $24,667
2021: $50,946

Looks like a clear trend to me Cheesy better not to sell anything at these levels, the trend is going to continue hopefully in 2022.
2616  Economy / Economics / Re: The link between Bitcoin and the economy on: December 26, 2021, 11:14:20 AM
When it comes to Fiat money we all know there is a direct link between the economy of a country and its strength of the currency. A strong economy will also result in a strong currency, the local people can use their money to buy goods and international investors have confidence in the currency. But when the economy is falling than so is the currency. The government is likely issuing debt and printing money in an effort to help the economy which will weaken the currency even more.
When it comes to bitcoins we could argue that bitcoins are kind of a global currency, but not all countries in the world have the same effect on the world economy. Industrial nations have a much stronger influence, if the 3 largest economies would go into recession than so would the world economy. This doesn't necessary mean that bitcoins would crash too like the local fiat money. I believe that bitcoins have some independence atleast from the economy.
2617  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: When Bull Market will Start on: December 26, 2021, 11:04:12 AM
Hello Everybody can we expect Bull market in January 2022, Can bitcoin create his ATH in 2022.     

I am not an oracle but I do believe that we will see another bull run. To be honest I already expected the bill run to start on December, right before Christmas. Unfortunaley the new covid variant came and ruined it all. While the news are not the best right now, it will get better next year. The rally is probably not going to come directly in January but more in the spring. It was still a good year for btc and hopefully so will be 2022 with a new ATH.
2618  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: My coins percentage down on: December 26, 2021, 10:41:56 AM
Even though the entire cryptocurrency and none crypto assets on the stock market price are down currently but the level at which my various altcoins portfolio crashed backward baffles me, please can anyone explain for me how the altcoins market works.

It's very hard to give general advice on why the alt coin markert drops. What kind of coins are you holding and what are the sizes of your individual positions. When it comes to alt coin trading and investing the biggest factor for me is diversification. I have seen too many promising projects losing 90% of its value, that's why I am not going to put my eggs all in one basket. The largest part of my portfolio is bitcoins, I strongly believe that the most famous crypto coin is going to keep rising. The smallest part of my portfolio are meme coins, here I only invest a few bucks so when they lose value its not really affecting my overall portfolio.
The biggest driver of the alt coin market is bitcoins. If the bitcoins drops in value than its going to pull down the whole market. In December the new covid mutation started spreading around the world and investors are panicking. It's not a serious panic since we don't have many facts yet about omicron variant. It's going to take weeks to analyse if all the vaccines are really useless against it. Against such big news like covid pandemic we can't really protect us, it's general market risk and doesn't mean that your coins are bad.
2619  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Poker bankroll building challenge. on: December 26, 2021, 10:34:55 AM
Bankroll management is one of the hardest things in poker because the swings we can experience when playing no limit holdem is insane. When playing other variants like potlimit then the swings are not so big as we won't be losing our whole buyin with one bad beat. When I first started out with poker I went up the buyins too quickly and ended up going broke a few times. It's best too play dynamically with our bankroll, so as soon as we lose a few buyins it's best to lower our stakes again.

Building a serious bankroll without any starting money is very difficult. Freerolls are usually full of players, so even if you can win 10 or 15 USD it comes down to number players. If you are competing with thousands of other players than your chances are very slim. In my opinion it's better go look for a good casino with 100 or 200% deposit bonus. Like that you have already a good balance to start with.

Good luck with your challenge.
2620  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: You don't need to hodl a particular coin all your life on: December 25, 2021, 08:19:30 PM


I didn't tell you to sell your bitcoin and not to buy again. I only say you sell the bull and buy the bear  Grin



Isn't that the opposite off a HODL strategy when we try and actively time the bear and bull markets? When it comes to bitcoins I am a huge fan of HODL but when it comes to alt coins I prefer a more active approach. Don't get me wrong, taking profits is important in any trading strategy, it is just that the long term profit from a HODL strategy is beating a lot of the active strategies. Buying before the rally and selling before the drop sounds very cool, but how do we actually know when the trends are switching? Finding the right points to buy and sell is very hard and requires a lot of time and research, following the HODL approach is just so much easier.
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