The difference here actually being that it is impossible to alter the production rate of bitcoins.
With oil/gold/anything else, capital investment can be used to raise productivity or fund innovation to raise production. With bitcoins it cannot.
The best you can do is tip the constant production in your favour, you get more of that fixed pie; which is what BFL are selling. When ASIC/FPGA miners push the total hash rate up (which is great for users, the blockchain is more secure) one of two things will then happen:
In either of these cases, the end point is the start point just with a considerably more secure blockchain and a load of money in BFL's pocket.
I don't envy the miners; they're in a horrendous position. They all start mining with CPUs. Then one of them invents GPU mining; any CPU miner who doesn't upgrade instantly finds their share of the pie reduced to minuscule proportions therefore everyone becomes a GPU miner, and they have to invest in the equipment to do it. Then one of them invents ASIC mining; any miner who doesn't upgrade instantly finds their share reduced to minuscule proportions therefore everyone becomes an ASIC miner. Then one of them invents quantum mining...
Miners are doomed to constantly play catch up with the other miners, who are inventing better technologies. It's no fun for them, but that is the nature of a free market -- innovate or die.
Bitcoin's peculiarities mean that the rewards for innovation accrue to the innovator, not the miner. BFL are the ones who will profit from this, not the miners. And there is nothing wrong with that, because for the rest of us, we see ever increasing efficiencies -- and more hashes per Watt means a more secure blockchain for less energy expended. Great. This is about as far from destroying bitcoin as it is possible to be. Bitcoin ends up stronger (for example: malicious bitcoin botnets will vanish pretty quickly).
With oil/gold/anything else, capital investment can be used to raise productivity or fund innovation to raise production. With bitcoins it cannot.
The best you can do is tip the constant production in your favour, you get more of that fixed pie; which is what BFL are selling. When ASIC/FPGA miners push the total hash rate up (which is great for users, the blockchain is more secure) one of two things will then happen:
- The unprofitable GPU miners will give up; very slightly (relative to the new order of magnitude higher rate) lower the total hashing power of the network. This will make very little difference to ASIC miners, since they will already be taking the lions share of the block rewards.
- The unprofitable GPU miners will upgrade to ASICs. This will tip the reward ratio back to where it was.
In either of these cases, the end point is the start point just with a considerably more secure blockchain and a load of money in BFL's pocket.
I don't envy the miners; they're in a horrendous position. They all start mining with CPUs. Then one of them invents GPU mining; any CPU miner who doesn't upgrade instantly finds their share of the pie reduced to minuscule proportions therefore everyone becomes a GPU miner, and they have to invest in the equipment to do it. Then one of them invents ASIC mining; any miner who doesn't upgrade instantly finds their share reduced to minuscule proportions therefore everyone becomes an ASIC miner. Then one of them invents quantum mining...
Miners are doomed to constantly play catch up with the other miners, who are inventing better technologies. It's no fun for them, but that is the nature of a free market -- innovate or die.
Bitcoin's peculiarities mean that the rewards for innovation accrue to the innovator, not the miner. BFL are the ones who will profit from this, not the miners. And there is nothing wrong with that, because for the rest of us, we see ever increasing efficiencies -- and more hashes per Watt means a more secure blockchain for less energy expended. Great. This is about as far from destroying bitcoin as it is possible to be. Bitcoin ends up stronger (for example: malicious bitcoin botnets will vanish pretty quickly).
What is malicious about a BTC botnet ?
Where is FPGA in your little story ?
Nice post, otherwise !