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301  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: a Monopoly-Inspired Journey to Accumulate 1 BTC on: August 26, 2023, 05:05:00 AM
How to get food - get a job
How to pay bills -  get a job
how to pay for vacation - get a job
how to get a car - get a job


how to get 1 BTC - "lets start Monopoly-Inspired Journey" ... why? why do you think that making $30,000 requires work that you can't do (because as you mentioned you have $30 to start) and at the same time you think someone will give you $30,000?
If you want 1 btc, you have to earn and buy it on the market. If you live in low-wage countries, then find a job online that pays in crypto. there's a lot of it here. If you want to earn more, develop some skills (e.g. programming)
302  Local / Polski / Re: jak ograniczyć koszty prowizji w Ethereum? on: August 26, 2023, 04:50:38 AM
Czysto teoretycznie można kupić np oETH (O od Orbit bridge<coin>) fee będzie marginalne, istnieje jednak ryzyko że w  przyszłośći para eth=oEth straci wypłacalność z takiego lub innego powodu np hack itd. ( przykładów mnóstwo) do 100 Usd można ryzykować powyżej lepiej zapłacić 5 usd za transakcje na prywatny adres, zapisać sobie na karteczce 12/24 słowa klucza. Spać spokojnie

Pierwsze słysze o tym chainie i bridgu. Omijałbym takie nowinki, bo większość z nich kończy się scamem. A jak z płynnością na swapach na tym chainie? Bo zwykle w tamim przypadku oszczędza się na fee a traci na slippage i dodatkowych ryzykach.
303  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Social-to-Earn Mining Program from Solcial. on: August 25, 2023, 08:12:50 AM
Solcial's Social-to-Earn (S2E) Program is a unique rewards system

Its not unique. We already had such platforms already in 2016, so the "unique tech" you are talking about is already 7 years old (STEEM and HIVE social networks). In the crypto world, time flies so fast that presenting technology from 7 years ago is like calling a DVD drive something new.

What's the problem with these types of projects? For one person to do "Social-to-Earn", another must want to pay them for "Social-to-Earn", and this someone is an investor in the project, and I assure you that there are not many people who treat investing as a charity supporting the random videos with cats creator. Even if there are people who like to support creators, they usually support their favorites and not random ones by buying and holding a token that goes down like a stone.
304  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin Distribution among Accounts on Blockchain on: August 25, 2023, 07:59:01 AM
Sad to know, it's an indication that centralized entities are still in control of most of the bitcoin circulation.

This is wrong - According to this site Bitcoin Exchange Balance there are only 2.2 M BTC on exchanges (~15% of supply) and this number goes down starting from 2020 when it hit ATH @3.2 M coins.
305  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Strategies of Institutional Bitcoin Accumulation and Their Motivations on: August 25, 2023, 07:53:21 AM
They execute this through purchasing Bitcoin directly from miners via OTC trading offers. Now, I have learned that this is one of the ways that Blackrock is accumulating bitcoin. As some asked, I will ask here too: when institutions use this "silent" method to buy bitcoin, are they doing it to gain control of a large percentage of the market or it is purely profit driven?


it doesn't have to be miners. It could be other big traders who plan to close a position or market makers who make a big deal with the right premium and then try to close it in the market at a better price making money on the spread by providing the product to the whales - liquidity and time.

And I also heard a rumor that miner tokens are more expensive than market tokens because they are harder to track because they have no transaction history.

And back to the OP's question "are they doing it to gain control of a large percentage of the market or it is purely profit driven?"

What's the point of having a large market share if you don't make a profit? The goal of every investor is to book a profit at the end of the trade.
306  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin is not going to $12k. on: August 25, 2023, 07:37:55 AM
- 93% of all Bitcoin has now been mined.
- World's largest asset manager Blackrock files for Bitcoin spot ETF
- Mysterious wallet accumulated $3 Billion worth $BTC In just 3 months
- Europe gets its first Spot Bitcoin  ETF
- Only 6.3% Of Total Bitcoin Supply Left On Exchanges
- Bitcoin Halving in just 8 months
- Bitcoin supply shock inevitable

"- 93% of all Bitcoin has now been mined." - So coins like BNB which are already 100% minted and even deflationary should have infinite evaluation?

"- World's largest asset manager Blackrock files for Bitcoin spot ETF" he already have exposure to bitcoin price change by owning 8% of all MSTR shares. So this etf migh be a take profit time for him.

"- Mysterious wallet accumulated $3 Billion worth $BTC In just 3 months" - it could be the idea of ​​snoop dog and his stoned mind. The fact that someone could afford to buy btc for $ 3 billion does not mean that the market is doomed to increase. Well Snoop Dog net worth is around $200M but you get my point right?

"- Europe gets its first Spot Bitcoin  ETF " IMO bitcoin does not need ETF. Its not a regular commodity that is hard to store/transfer and ETF solve many issues. Being excited about bitcoin ETF is like being excited that at the moment when cars began to replace horse-drawn carriages, someone was excited that the latest generation of cars would have a container for horse food.

"- Only 6.3% Of Total Bitcoin Supply Left On Exchanges" fractional reserve allert

"- Bitcoin Halving in just 8 months" - halvings have much lower fundamential impact on price than before.

1st halving was important. It reduced monetary inflation from 25% to 12%. Thats a big deal. Second halving decreased monetary inflation from 9% to 4,5%. Now we are getting closer and closer to the 4th halving that will reduce bitcoin monetary inflation from like 1.5% to 0.7%. Both numbers are negligible compared to 8% official CPI in US, 10% in EU or 80% in countries like Turkey. So my bet is that halvings fundamental impact on bitcoin price is getting lower and lower with every next halving in oppose to macro data, FED decisions, interest rates, recessions etc. Bitcoin will be more like an asset that act sometimes like gold on steroids sometimes like sp500 on steroids rather than it will fallow "bubble x days before each halving scheme"

"- Bitcoin supply shock inevitable" - assuming demand constantly increases.

It's not that I reject the possibility of BTC pump. My investment capital is on the up side too, but I wrote my post to warn all incorrigible optimists that the future may be less colorful than it looks. And it is worth approaching the investment calmly, don't yolo rush all in, so that you do not have to sell everything at the very bottom if the next bull run will be in 7 years not 2 and you are out of money to leave from.
307  Local / Polski / Re: Pospekulujmy o aktualnej i przyszłej cenie BTC. on: August 24, 2023, 05:21:53 AM
Tak było w przeszłości, ale mam czasem wątpliwości czy ten sam scenariusz znów się powtórzy. To wszystko wygląda trochę zbyt łatwo i zbyt pięknie. Absolutnie każdy spodziewa się nowego ath w 2024 przy okazji halvingu, a w życiu rzadko się zdarza żeby większość inwestorów/spekulantów miała rację.

Słyszałem to samo w 2017, że do kolejnej hossy nie dojdzie, bo większość się jej spodziewa.

to tylko kwestia czasu, zanim kursy znów pójdą w górę... a jeśli BTC przebije granicę $30k i skieruje się w stronę $40k (q4 2023?), wtedy wszyscy hazardziści powrócą w nadziei, że kolejna hossa naprawdę się rozpocznie...

A co powiesz na scenariusz japoński?



To wykres logarytmiczny! 4 cyklre wzrostowe i 40 lat niesamowitej pompy podczas której główny indeks spompował się 400x (pojedyńcze spółki pewnie nieraz i po 1000x). Po pęknięciu czwartej bańki trzeba było czekać 35 lat by wyrównać poprzednie ATH (nie uwzględniając inflacji).

Przekładając to na bitcoina, to bitcoin odpuściłby cykliczność związaną z halvingami (z uwagi na spadek fundamentalnego wpływu na cenę) i wpadł w 12 letnią bessę (po 12 latach pompy i 4 cyklach wzrostowych) i nowe ATH zobaczylibyśmy w 2033, a po uwzględnieniu inflacji pewnie w 2035.

Z drugiej strony, to ostatnia bańka w japonii była najsilniejszą ze wszystkich, na bitcoinie ostatnia była najsłabszą. Może do scenariusza japońskiego brak nam zatem ostatecznej bańki, totalnej manii która sprawi, że wszyscy będą mówić tylko o bitcoinie a Nvidia i AMD będą się chwalić na konferencjach jak dobrego ASCIC minera mają w ofercie? Czyli pompa do 200k, a potem, gdy wszyscy sprzedadzą, bo na to wskazuje cykliczność bitcoina, to wtedy ruszy na 1 mln$, porzucając cykliczność w ten pozytywny sposób i dopiero tam pęknie i pójdzie w zapomnienie na 15 lat?
308  Local / Polski / Re: Pospekulujmy o aktualnej i przyszłej cenie BTC. on: August 23, 2023, 06:08:42 AM
Mozliwe ze do spadku przylozyla sie informacja (ponoc nieprawdziwa) o tym ze SEC postanowil przedluzyc decyzje co do zaakceptowania/odrzucenia aplikacji o spot ETF do 2024. Do tego doszla informacja (ponoc rowniez z tylka strzelona) ze SpaceX wyprzedaje swoje bitcoiny.

Dynamika spadków mi do tego nie pasuje. O SEC dowiaduję się teraz, a kurs urwał się 10% w 5 min. To nie jest dynamika newsu, o którym ktoś, kto codziennie siedzi w krypto (ja), dowiaduje po tygodniu. to przypomina "big short" pod wybicie stoplosów po ciasnej 3 miesięcznej akumulacji a potem zalewanie rynku fake newsami, by to uzasadnić i nakłonić do sprzedaży na dołku.

BTC raczej poleci niżej, kolejny przystanek to 20K (rejony w których moj palec bedzie juz na guziku buy), a jak odwiedzimy 15K to ładuje portfel do pełna

To co napisałem wyżej nakłania mnie bardziej do tego, że to był atak, który ktoś teraz próbuje zamknąc na zysku a nie kluczowe odwrócenie trendu. A jak się spojrzy na wykres tygodniowy, to jesteśmy w konsolidacji 25-31k od marca, a bitcoin wciąż nie wybił nowego niższego dołka w obecnym trendzie wzrostowym.
309  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin price hits the rock as Space X sells all it's BTC holdings on: August 23, 2023, 05:58:20 AM
Well, it is actually still a rumor as long as no proof that Space X, Tesla, or Elon Musk really sold their Bitcoin. Even Elon Musk claimed that he sold their Bitcoin, he can lie us to get an advantage of market drops. How if they are trying to collect more Bitcoin before the end of this year? It is very possible that big whales cooperate together with the media to shake the market by spreading fake news. It is not the first time that media and whales manipulate crypto market, so I'm not so surprised if the news is a big fake only.

If you're talking about Q2 2022 and elon "dimon hands" appeared to be "paper hands" than elon was not selling. TESLA was. And TESLA is a regulated public company listed on the US Stock Exchange. It has its own investors and is accountable to them. Keeps accounts and must make them available to investors. So there is no way for Tesla to say that it sold bitcoin and in fact bought. There are relevant paragraphs and high penalties for this.

Another thing could be that Tesla could sell openly to drive down the price and Elon could buy secretly with private money. And the very loss that Tesla recorded could be Elon's profit (thus efecting in withdrawal of capital from the company). But I honestly doubt that would be the case. It is more likely that Elon simply chose the wrong timing with investing in BTC. the rich make mistakes too.
310  Economy / Speculation / Re: 1 Bitcoin will be $173,566 before November, 2025 on: August 23, 2023, 05:42:57 AM
But it is fun until it lasts.  People love to show their calculations depending on the previous history to predict about the possible future, especially the price of Bitcoin and its new ATH.  I also like reading this kind of prediction and cherry pick what meets my expectation and  I would love to see this price happening than the $116,610 in my mind.

As long as they are supported by some analysis and not empty "1 Bitcoin will be $173,566 before November, 2025". Or in the case of a second analysis based on a pattern with n=0 (number of pattern repetitions).

But study shows that such predictions are were harmfull for average joe. Many experiments have been carried out and the conclusion is one. A person who was exposed to "expert opinion" or even simple "random prediction" was much more likely to take more risks. Risk often inadequate to the knowledge, quality of prediction or financial capacity.
311  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Suspicious BATM and teller, am I paranoid or it's all normal behavior ? on: August 21, 2023, 05:59:09 AM
- Should I go there again and try again? I need like $400 worth of BTC and I have no other way to get it!

I remember that there used to be a lot of people here on the forum who lent people with good accounts even larger sums without collateral. With 5000 merits, you have, I'm sure they shouldn't have a problem with that, the chances of you ruining your account for such a small sum are virtually nil.

Bitcointalk's Lending Services - old list

- Despite not saying a word about KYC and AML limits did it have one and how did it get triggered, does that shit store everything, including tracking those fudns?

My local atm has a rule that they can ask for a kyc in case someone arouses suspicion e.g. by covering their face/part of face (you wrote that you were wearing sunglasses). Maybe ATM was unable to record face, so it triggered kyc

Did that pos of a BATM record everything, and do they store data from customers who turn away when they ask for ID?

No one knows. My local ATM claims it deletes hi-res videos after 24 h and low-res videos after 7 days (if I remember correct), but no one really knows if they don't store it and sell to bad people.


Just out of curiosity, what country are we talking about?
312  Local / Polski / Re: Tu się witamy on: August 20, 2023, 06:46:17 AM
Dziękuję za odpowiedź, szanowny pan. Chcę osobiście wymienić pieniądze na gotówkę w Warszawie.

Pieniądze na gotówkę ?Smiley Polecam zatem wymienić się przy użyciu swojej prawej ręki ze swoją lewą ręką Smiley

Jeśli chodzi o wymiany gotówki na krypto, to w warszawie są dziesiątki bitomatów bez KYC. Moim zdaniem to najlepsza opcja na zachowanie anonimowości i jednocześnie bezpieczeństwa, że nie dostanie się kosy w brzuch za 5000 zł.

jeśli zależy ci na wymienia P2P, to załuż osobny wątek i opisz warunki.
313  Economy / Speculation / Re: 1 Bitcoin will be $173,566 before November, 2025 on: August 20, 2023, 06:40:40 AM
1 Bitcoin will be $173,566 before November, 2025
10.21x or 1021% from Bitcoin Bottom in 2022 or 5.65x or 565% from current price.
Posting here so we can see if my theory will be correct or not.
If it's correct by Nov 2025, I will share it here in this post.
Until then, consider this a speculation.



My best speculation of 2022 - Predicting Bitcoin to go $20k when it was at $44k.
Ohh.. this one is different:


Both predictions are worthless.  both are based on the oversimplification of a complex world. it's like tossing a coin once, seeing it come up heads and expecting it to always be heads. The world is too complex to be predicted from just one fractal or calculated out of 1 parameter.
I know that our brains are so built that they try hard in total chaos to try desperately to find some patterns, but believe me. Even if you find a pattern with N=10 (the number of repetitions of the pattern in history), it doesn't mean that there is some magical force that creates these patterns. It can still be a total accident, just as it is a total accident to land heads 10x when you blow the coin 3 times before each flip. Which doesn't make it a scientific fact that blowing a coin 3x always makes it heads. @ImThour you create the pattern at N=0, because it hasn't repeated itself even once. Your wishful thinking is counting on it to happen again because it has already happened once but N=0 here.
314  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: My dream is coming close. on: August 19, 2023, 06:04:58 AM
Great goal. Had the same 5 years ago, but it was a bit easier to achive that.

I have learned from this forum that there is no need to dump your coin because of FUD, this distraction will come and go. So I am no longer reading those blogs or social media that is promoting this this fear that will make me dump my small holding and abandon my dream. My focus is to own one Bitcoin.

this forum is a place for bitcoin enthusiasts. This is the perfect place to learn about bitcoin technicalities, including all the details, but it's definitely not an objective place to get information about future bitcoin pricing and investment strategies. In 1990, people were excited about Japanese stocks, which grew 350x in 40 years. When the bubble burst, it took 34 years to return to the area of precious ath (not adjusted for inflation). Do you have that much time if history were to repeat itself on bitcoin? In japan 40 years pump and 40 years to get back to ath. on bitcoin 14 years pump and 14 years to get back to ath?

I'm not saying that will happen. I even put a small probability on it, and I expect a new ATH in 2024, but it is an event with a non-zero probability, for which you also need to be prepared, to avoid scenario in which you sell your bitcoin on huge loss, after 5 years of holding, because you lost your job due to the crisis, and the entire financial cushion was in bitcoin.
315  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin price hits the rock as Space X sells all it's BTC holdings on: August 19, 2023, 05:49:40 AM
If it is fake news, then the release of the news is to manipulate the Bitcoin market.  Probably someone is wanting to buy Bitcoin at very cheap price and do this trick whle other factors are coinciding to what the fake news wanted to do.  News like  Evergrande and the USD strengthening can be a factor for the current Bitcoin dump, plus the many weak hands that follow the market trend.

It looks like this dump has massacred lots of sheep with weak hands.

If "Evergrande and the USD strengthening" was the case, then stocks and financial markets as a whole would also be at a huge loss. Meanwhile, yesterday the sp500 ended the session at 0, and the key European markets in little minus (like ~-0.5%).

"Probably someone is wanting to buy Bitcoin at very cheap price and do this trick" - this does not necessarily mean that someone wants to buy cheap to earn on increases. Most likely, it's about short profit.
316  Local / Polski / Re: Pospekulujmy o aktualnej i przyszłej cenie BTC. on: August 18, 2023, 12:36:36 PM
@Tytanowy Janusz słyszałem również o tym, ale może to być również związane z wnioskiem o upadłość Evergrande.
nie jest to specyficzne dla kryptowalut, ale Evergrande zawsze podejrzewa się o bycie pierwszym dominem w chińskiej bańce na rynku nieruchomości, a to będzie miało globalny wpływ, jeśli to nie będzie ograniczone tylko do chin.

https://www.rp.pl/nieruchomosci-mieszkaniowe/art38969281-najbardziej-zadluzony-deweloper-swiata-broni-sie-przed-wierzycielami

Wydaje mi się, że jesli chodziłoby o evergrande, to leciałyby też akcje, a tymczasem nasz polski WIG20 zaledwie na 0.6% stracie, DAX na 1% stracie, kontrakty na sp500 na -0.5%, nikkei na 0 co nie odbiega od normalnej zmienności a nawet można powiedzieć, że jest to zmienność poniżej średniej. Czemu więc akurat bitcoin miałby oberwać 10% w 5 min z tej okazji?

poza tym na mój chłopski rozum, to sam fakt, że evergrande nie jest "too big to fail" i rząd chin pozwala im na chapter11 zamiast dofinansowywać trupa dowodzi, że nie boją się lawiny.
MILIARD LIKWDACJI NA LONGACH, jak nie wiadomo o co chodzi...  

Tylko czemu akurat musieli longi likwidować ? Sad
317  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin price hits the rock as Space X sells all it's BTC holdings on: August 18, 2023, 06:17:27 AM
Possible FAKE NEWS ALLERT

a lot could have happened. Perhaps they were liquidating the position because they lacked cash for subsequent flights? maybe they needed liquidity for something else? Selling off a big player does not always mean that the market is doomed to fall. By the way, this is what I saw on twitter today:


https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1692295710962483253

Chatgpt:
Quote
"wrote down" means that SpaceX officially reduced the value of their owned Bitcoins. In this case, the term "wrote down" refers to the action of decreasing the value of assets, such as Bitcoin, in the company's accounting records. This might indicate that the company recognized that the value of their owned Bitcoins has decreased since their initial purchase.

In short, SpaceX officially decreased the value of their Bitcoins in their financial documents, likely due to the decline in the value of Bitcoin since their acquisition. However, it's important to note that this action doesn't necessarily mean that SpaceX sold their Bitcoins; it simply means that they chose to lower their value in their accounting records.

So they bought higher, now it's cheaper, they recorded a paper loss of $ 300 million in the books. They did not sell bitcoin for $ 300 million. There is no proof they sold even a single bitcoin.

So its all one big fake news made by market manipulator to help close big short, that triggered this massive dump, on profit?
318  Economy / Economics / Re: Turkey lira was close to devaluation now russian currency on: August 18, 2023, 06:09:39 AM
If we look at 3 countries Poland, Turkey , Russia their monetary policy show's clearly they use lower rates to finance their military.
Now all the world talking about weak russian currency but nobody don't pay attention If country currency is that much low then this country might be very dangerous for other countries.  
The lower rates can give huge financial power.

but there is a huge difference between the countries. Poland spends on army to deter Russia from an attack, so their military power is growing, and Russia is arming itself in panic before the collapse of the front in Ukraine. Poland accumulates military power and Russia burns it through a senseless war.
Poland has a healthy economy and Russia is burdened with huge sanctions, so it has to give huge discounts to smugglers and sanctions evaders. i have heard that the raw materials that russia sells to china do it at a 40% discount.
and china take advantage of the discount and fill warehouses to the top. As soon as the economy slows down, Russia will be in big trouble. Poland can cut back on spending at any time, russia can't.
319  Local / Polski / Re: Pospekulujmy o aktualnej i przyszłej cenie BTC. on: August 18, 2023, 05:37:51 AM
zarówno implikowana (bitvol), jak i historyczna zmienność (Bitcoin volatility index) są obecnie oficjalnie na rekordowych poziomach

  • 30-dniowa zmienność implikowana: 38,22 (poprzedni rekord: 43,93) źródło
  • 30-dniowa zmienność BTC/USD: 0,74% (poprzedni rekord: 0,88) źródło
  • jedynie 60-dniowa zmienność BTC/USD nie jest jeszcze na rekordowych poziomach i wynosi 1,52% (rekord: 1,04% w październiku 2016 r.)

I nam zmienność wybuchła. O 23:40 w ciągu jednej 5cio minutowej świeczki doszło do spadku o 3000$ czyli nieco ponad 10%. Chyba jedna z najmocniejszych świeczek od upadku FTX jak nie covid panic sell.

Mass media, jakto media, zaczęły szukać przyczyny:

Breaking: SpaceX Unloads $373M Worth of Bitcoin Holdings

BTC it previously acquired by $373 million and sold the cryptocurrency

SpaceX sold $373M worth of Bitcoin acquired in 2021-2022

Elon Musk's SpaceX Liquidates Entire $373000000 Bitcoin

Unpacking SpaceX Bitcoin 2021-2022 sales worth $373M

Bitcoin Crashes Below $25k As SpaceX Sells All BTC

I w sumie przy takim spamie można być pewnym, że to prawda nie? Ale zupełnym przypadkiem trafiłem na to:


https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1692295710962483253

ChatGPT:

Quote
"Zaniżyło wartość" w kontekście "wrote down" oznacza, że SpaceX obniżyło oficjalnie wykazywaną wartość swoich posiadanych Bitcoinów. W tym przypadku, termin "wrote down" odnosi się do działania polegającego na zredukowaniu wartości aktywów, takich jak Bitcoin, w księgach rachunkowych firmy. Może to oznaczać, że firma uznała, że wartość ich posiadanych Bitcoinów spadła od czasu ich pierwotnego zakupu.

W skrócie, SpaceX zmniejszyło oficjalnie wartość swoich Bitcoinów w dokumentach finansowych, prawdopodobnie z uwagi na spadek wartości Bitcoina od momentu ich nabycia. Ważne jest jednak zaznaczenie, że to działanie nie oznacza koniecznie, że SpaceX sprzedało swoje Bitcoiny; jedynie, że zdecydowało się obniżyć ich wartość w księgach rachunkowych.

SpaceX zapisało sobie papierową stratę w wysokości 300 mln $ wzgledem ceny zakupu. Koniec. Nie ma dowodów na to, że sprzedali chociażby 1 BTC.
Czyli ten dump jest podszyty manipulacją rynku a zysk z niego jest realizowany przy pomocy kampanii opłaconych fake newsów.

320  Local / Polski / Re: Tu się witamy on: August 17, 2023, 05:28:04 AM
Cześć. W lokacji "Polska" na forum nie widzę działów z ofertami wymiany kryptowalut. Czy można zakładać tematy na forum giełdy kryptowalut w polskiej lokalizacji?

Witam Smiley

Z tego co wiem, to nie ma przepistu, który by zabraniał tworzenia takich wątków. Tylko jak masz nowe konto bez histori zrealizowanych transkacji lub nawet historii postów to nie licz, że ktoś wyśle jako pierwszy a próby namawiania na to będą mile widziane. Zostaje wysłanie jako pierwszy albo korzystanie z escrow
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