It is not my analysis.

To your last point, I actually called for a bounce at $465-480 in the wall observer thread, but that may be entirely irrelevant to the notion of a mid-term / long-term bottom. We had two fib supports at $476 and $473, so I expected a slight overshoot of those levels.

Still too early for me to say that the bottom is in.

I don't boast about money I've made. But you should be able to look through my calls/charts and determine whether or not I am a winning or losing trader.

@danv predicting $100-200 level if that fails. I generally have very much respect for his analysis. It could be super beartastic! But still not most probable case at this point...

I don't know what size positions you play with. Mine are large enough that a $10 move is painful. A $50 move is damn near heart attack mode.

On a move from 535 > 466, shorting 470s is playing with fire. As long as you aren't one of these people that sells as soon as they are whipsawed, you're fine. But I know what it's like to sit on a short $5k in the red, anxiously waiting for it to play out, and it ain't pretty. I take lengths to avoid that sort of pain, and I'm willing to sacrifice some profit to do it.

I think that this is likely. But the point remains. One should be trying to short the reversal, not short into sustained selling. Same principle as "buy the crash, sell the rally."

Yeah pretty oversold and strong support in 465-480 zone. I'd be surprised if we don't see a test of 518 level. My channel top is at 570 -- don't see that happening.

Nice retracement from 473 ... I see another descending triangle in play.

This plays out nicely. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=400235.msg5699835#msg5699835

Too bad I am too busy to actively trade these last couple days. Still holding a short from 580s, but did not add to it or close anything during this volatility.  

Momentum looks weak for much more to this bounce, and we already saw a 50% retracement from the last plateau. I see support at 465 - 480, hard to breach that level without some nice bounce I think.

Edit: Re-thinking this. Closing short at 520 for now. Will see how this plays out.

Sure, there's luck. There's a lot of hard work as well. And most importantly, stop tolerance. I think many traders, especially on leverage, repeatedly take losses and bleed capital when the market moves against them, rather than waiting for their positions to play out. It's painful to continue holding losing positions -- but if you cannot tolerate it, you will be a losing trader. No one calls every top and bottom.

You're conflating the Gox situation with the comment on supply and demand. I did not form "my own" consensus. Actually, quite a few were talking about how the lost coins = mid-term/long-term bullish, if short-term bearish -- the logic being that there were now vastly less coins available to purchase and investors looking to re-accumulate position. It is irrelevant to point out what price range we should currently be in given market sentiment if we are talking on different time frames. To reiterate, I am talking strictly in terms of supply -- I am not commenting on sentiment around the Gox situation.

Yes it is, and I'm still saying it. Without considering anything else (e.g. positive sentiment or regained confidence), I am simply commenting on the supply-side dynamic. I was commenting primarily on the logic that the coins being removed from the market in the first place was a bullish indication. That was more or less the consensus around here.

I'm not saying 70,000 coins would literally be dumped on the market, nor would they be sold at once. But certainly some would be dumped, some set in limit orders. It seems absurdly silly to suggest that 100% will be held. Are you serious when you say things like "people don't go around dumping coins?" I'm not even commenting on the practice of "dumping" -- just noting that this would in theory affect supply on the exchanges.

To be fair, this is just the flip side of the Gox coins being "removed" from the market. Most people around here made the case that this perception of decreased supply on the exchanges would inevitably cause a bull run. Now we potentially have a reversal of that situation. Will 100% get dumped? Of course not. Could 10% be dumped? That's conceivable -- why not? And 70,000 coins in a market where the vast majority are hoarded is nothing to sneeze at. I'm just playing with hypotheticals here.

Or they will be crippled by the mass exodus.

Yes they are freezing withdrawals and not crediting deposits for BTC, LTC, TRC and FTC. All other coins are seeing a premium in price as people run for the exit.

This is unfortunate.... fortunately did not have much BTC left on there.... but this is quite unfortunate.... they were always my favorite altcoin exchange.

The blanket statement that we are oversold does not address broader sentiment. Sure, many have sold coins. Looking here and at TV, many traders have bought back expecting retail investors to follow. Many have leveraged long. I am not interested in these sweeping statements like "we are oversold, so the bottom is in." Stochastics on longer time frames say we should bounce, sure.

Yes, regarding long term MAs, there is not enough history. The sample size is laughable for these kind of movements. Frankly, I think bitcoin's extremely short history of massive gains and untested price levels skews how one should approach long term MAs. I observe them, they have predictive power, but I cannot rely on them. I just put more emphasis on other metrics. The historical basis for breaking an MA just isn't very important to me. You say that it is -- fine.  Agree to disagree. I have my methods and have done very well without such emphases. I am obviously not talking about extreme volatility in reference to stair stepping. I am talking about flash crashes / flash recoveries within a down trend.

When you say, "But, I'm not talking about a flash crash, I am talking about a bottom. I think the bottom is in at $400" ...wasn't the bottom at $400 a flash crash? No despair. Pure fear-based panic and flash recovery.

I don't care what anyone's wet dreams are. I am just trying to keep an open mind while I wait for signs of confirmation that the down trend is over. You expect money to enter when the price is right. You expect that at current or slightly lower levels. Some bears expect $400. Many expect much, much lower than that. So take your pick. I also don't care for the constant tendency on here to label some target as the consensus and say, obviously buyers will front run and so you will never see $xxx coins. Maybe that is true -- but then, what is the consensus target? It is much less clear than people around here like to claim, I think.

Regarding daily RSI, that we are hovering above oversold doesn't strengthen the bull case in comparison to the April collapse. In early July 2013 we were extremely oversold -- RSI under 12 and TSI at -60 (on standard inputs, anyway). Regarding "it will reach there long before $400 is seen again" I am not sure I can agree, and this largely depends on the scope of price action between now and then. It is worth noting, I think, that the post-April decline was clearly less protracted than post-November, and this is illustrated pretty clearly looking at RSI and TSI.



It can go either way. I agree with your original post, if that wasn't clear. I just have no interest in proclaiming that the bottom is in at this time, or at these levels.

As I said in another thread, ~ 530 is a pretty key support level, so I would expect a nice bounce in the 520-540 range. Then again, I expected much more bounce on the 50% retrace to 555. I am amazed at how little buy pressure we're seeing at key supports. We've just been walking down the stairs here. I'd love to see signs of a trend reversal -- I really would. I'll take a bottom in the 520s. I'll take a bottom at $541. But we are back in an established down trend and the question is, will momentum pick up? In that case, I wouldn't count on long term MAs in this market during extreme volatility. There is just not enough price history here. Daily momentum (RSI, TSI) tells me that if this is going to play out like 2013, then we have lots of room to fall. Never mind 2011. Having said that, a break of 400 on a retest would surprise me. But I can't justify ruling out sub-380 at this point, either. Not at all.

Regarding shorts -- IIRC, BTC swaps still down a fair bit from the 640s (from 8.5k or so), and yet USD swaps have hardly changed. Still almost $16.5 million in USD swapped. BFX says "very bullish." There's a lot of people in pain right now. You think there is more pressure for shorts to cover?

Can't think too far ahead right now. If ~530 is broken, there is very little in the way of tested supports down to 400. I see 400s as likely, assuming we stay below 620s and continue to see such weak buy pressure. I see heavy resistance at 600 - 610. Directional bias is downward.

Could still make a run at this .764 retrace. I think we've formed pretty formidable resistance above this level. Expecting downside momentum to pick up sooner or later...