Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[windjc]

Any predictions what will happen if this is true?
https://twitter.com/CanarslanEren/status/448418452701974528

If its true and assuming they refund people's bitcoins, then what will happen is that there will be a lot of happy people. Beyond that, not much will happen. A few people might sell some, but most people will hold. And overall community sentiment will be more positive. Probably not much difference in regards to price.

Yea sure! Goxxers who bought coins at 100-300 (huge volume happened in this range) will not sell for 500-600.
Rather they will sacrifice the 2x-6x profit to spare the anemic bid sum of $12 million: a typical perma-bull fantasy..

I am more than happy to make this bet with you: 5 BTC in escrow.

If Mtgox gives a 80%-100% refund in coins, the price of Bitcoin will not decrease on increased volume more than $100 less than the day of the refund within 2 weeks of the refund.

[Adrian-x]

I think that we are really starting to see adoption on a grand scale.   [ ... ] large wave of companies starting to accept bitcoin.   Everyday you jump on the internet, you see a new company starting to accept bitcoin.   It is simple logic that as more companies accept it, the more people will need bitcoin.   

People investing in something should try to have a realistic and accurate picture of its value, market etc.  Focusing only on positve side of news is not good for businesses.

I have seen a few anecdotes about companies starting to accepting payment in USD through BitPay, mostly from customers who already own bitcoins.  And BitPay's CEO said that they do not keep bitcoins themselves; they sell them as soon as they get them.

There seems to be no statistics on

   (a) how many stores really accept payment in Bitcoin, rather than USD through BitPay-like services.  (Many retailers work with rather tight
   profit margins; I don't see how they could post prices in BTC with the current volatility of the latter.)

  (b) how many people buy bitcoin for the purpose of paying for goods and services (as opposed to speculating, giving gifts, etc.), and how
  many dollars that amounts to.

  (c) how many stores have stopped accepting payment in bitcoins (directly or through BitPay-like services).

Overstock once or twice posted how much they sold through bitcoin.  Were there any updates?

I suppose that BitPay publishes some data regularly on their volume.

People should only invest in Bitcoin for 1 of 2 reasons.
1) you understand these intellectuals position of how money functions and can directly relate it to Bitcoin.
2) beleve Bitcoin is a technology going through a hype cycle allowing traders / marketers to proffit via the greater fool theory of investing.  

Jorge you skepticism is predisposed to providing the greater fool theory.
You are overlooking Bitcoin as a " risk distribution virus"  it is a distributed socialized voluntary p2p wealth preservation system.

It only works if you beleve in 1 above that is your insurance (the cure to buying high and selling low) . And secondary if you invest your excess wealth in the system, which changes your behavior aligning your self intrest with that of the community.

You drew a metaphor to accepting Bitcoin is like accepting addictive and destructive drugs. It is but it isn't destructive it's like choosing to live in civilization as opposed to living like a self sufficient cave man under the control of the dinosaurs, once you try it the benefits are obvious.

Dinosaurs are on the verge of extinction and higher levels of consciousness is about to evolve in smaller mammals.

If you invest for reason 2 above you will lose your money over the long run here the price fixing greater fools will try guarantee a greater fool with a price fixing mechanism.

Bitcoin is unstoppable if it is eventually controlled by type 2 investors type 1 investors take the proffit and invest in a new cryptocurrency.  

[KeyserSoze]

will the 598 slowly creep down, pushing price along with it, then suddenly disappear while the owner buys up to 600?

[roslinpl]

670.000 coins back to the market ? 

Well seems like it is going a good way like I predicted today ! but we will see tomorrow and later on.

[Adrian-x]

Good to see i'm not the only one starting to feel bullish when reading this thread. The sun is shining, summer is coming. Bitcoin u may rise now please.  

This is sad if Bitcoin price is dependent on how we feel about the weather.

I didn't say that, read again.

Thanks I'm very bullish too the new coming difficulty is going to change the market dynamic and I'm predicting bull run.

[Erdogan]

I think that we are really starting to see adoption on a grand scale.   Obviously we have a long ways to go, but I don't think the price yet reflects this last large wave of companies starting to accept bitcoin.   Everyday you jump on the internet, you see a new company starting to accept bitcoin.   It is simple logic that as more companies accept it, the more people will need bitcoin.   

The problem we're having in reality is that we're working on a bottom up approach where consumers have the desire to spend BTC, but companies need to accept it.  Then those companies just turn it into fiat, rather then being able to use it to buy things like power, food, materials, etc.  There needs to be some startups that accept BTC and use BTC to pay for their needs as well.  If only we could get some power companies to accept it as payment, then have those companies pay their employees with it and buy upgrades and such.  Silly economic workings...

Perfect for the new, legal marijuana businesses including support businesses, which are separated from the banking system. I wonder how long it will take them to rely mostly on bitcoin.

[BitChick]

Good to see i'm not the only one starting to feel bullish when reading this thread. The sun is shining, summer is coming. Bitcoin u may rise now please.  

This is sad if Bitcoin price is dependent on how we feel about the weather.

I didn't say that, read again.

Thanks I'm very bullish too the new coming difficulty is going to change the market dynamic and I'm predicting bull run.

I would trust the "veterans" on here.  It is weird but there seems to be a certain "feel" in the air when things are about to change.  I am not really a true "veteran" but before the last run in November I had this same sort of "feeling" if you want to call it that.     We threw some money in then, not really expecting the crazy run that happened soon after, but so relieved we bought more when we did.  Knowing this we threw in a little more this week.  Not much though because we are pretty much "all in" already. 

[Erdogan]

There's also the problem of the unknown effects of MTGOX's black hole.. I lost a lot of money which I can't put back into the real BTC system, and plenty of others did too... MTGox also lead a price increase at many points in the run up to 1000++... the price now is it real? It's beign supported by an order book with 12 million dollars assuming the next leading exchange is bitstamp? MTgox's Fake or Real orderbook showed a much higher bid sum.. now the leading exchange's bid sum is equivalent to a few houses in a nice neighborhood... for a worldwide currency

I don't know what's going to happen but the majority of me is convinced the markets have not yet adjusted to the MTGox demise and no one really knows what the price should be of BTC at this moment of time.  Crisis of confidence in exchanges is still prevalant.  BTC as a protocol is still sound but 10 -> 100$ was a big jump in 2013... 10$ -> 1240$... even down to 500$ levels I'm not sure we're at the real BTC price.

Gox really screwed this whole thing up

I thought that massive Chinese speculation and zero fees trading in China caused the quick movement up to $1240?  then uncertainties with the future of China's participation in BTC and also maybe Gox's failures deflated some of that speculation hype...

Preference to hold, for chinese people, obviously, but we also had the mtgox thieves, that would buy at any price since they could redeem the bitcoin twice. The 1240 high was an anomaly, in my opinion, not a result of prudent speculation.

[JorgeStolfi]

The Neo & Bee bitcoin bank in Cyprus seems to be stalled, I can't find any news after this:
http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/2014/03/20/neobee-responds/
(And their reply to the Central Bank of Cyprus, like their pre-launch commercials, reads more like a post from this thread than a professional statement.  Do they really expect to convince the Central Bank to authorize their Bank to function, by insinuating that bankers are the biggest criminals in the world?)

[Erdogan]

I think that we are really starting to see adoption on a grand scale.   [ ... ] large wave of companies starting to accept bitcoin.   Everyday you jump on the internet, you see a new company starting to accept bitcoin.   It is simple logic that as more companies accept it, the more people will need bitcoin.  

People investing in something should try to have a realistic and accurate picture of its value, market etc.  Focusing only on positve side of news is not good for businesses.

I have seen a few anecdotes about companies starting to accepting payment in USD through BitPay, mostly from customers who already own bitcoins.  And BitPay's CEO said that they do not keep bitcoins themselves; they sell them as soon as they get them.

There seems to be no statistics on

   (a) how many stores really accept payment in Bitcoin, rather than USD through BitPay-like services.  (Many retailers work with rather tight
   profit margins; I don't see how they could post prices in BTC with the current volatility of the latter.)

  (b) how many people buy bitcoin for the purpose of paying for goods and services (as opposed to speculating, giving gifts, etc.), and how
  many dollars that amounts to.

  (c) how many stores have stopped accepting payment in bitcoins (directly or through BitPay-like services).

Overstock once or twice posted how much they sold through bitcoin.  Were there any updates?

I suppose that BitPay publishes some data regularly on their volume.

I don't think the fact that people buy bitcoin with the intent of spending it, and businesses immediately converting them back to fiat, is of any special consequence. The important point is that we get new users on both sides of the trade, and they will eventually want to hold. The preference to hold for later consumption, is the one and only cause for the value of bitcoins.
 

[meanig]

The Neo & Bee bitcoin bank in Cyprus seems to be stalled, I can't find any news after this:
http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/2014/03/20/neobee-responds/
(And their reply to the Central Bank of Cyprus, like their pre-launch commercials, reads more like a post from this thread than a professional statement.  Do they really expect to convince the Central Bank to authorize their Bank to function, by insinuating that bankers are the biggest criminals in the world?)

You think they've stalled because they don't send an update to your inbox every morning. How important you are 

[KeyserSoze]

The Neo & Bee bitcoin bank in Cyprus seems to be stalled ... Do they really expect to convince the Central Bank to authorize their Bank to function, by insinuating that bankers are the biggest criminals in the world?)

Does it qualify as irony that Neo & Bee fail to understand one gets further with honey rather than vinegar?

[Flatulenters]

New very funny alt coin announcement  

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1eU2INYe4gk

[btcsean]

Any thoughts on what the recent decision from the IRS on ruling Bitcoin as property is going to do to the price now?

[gizmoh]

Any predictions what will happen if this is true?
https://twitter.com/CanarslanEren/status/448418452701974528

If its true and assuming they refund people's bitcoins, then what will happen is that there will be a lot of happy people. Beyond that, not much will happen. A few people might sell some, but most people will hold. And overall community sentiment will be more positive. Probably not much difference in regards to price.

Yea sure! Goxxers who bought coins at 100-300 (huge volume happened in this range) will not sell for 500-600.
Rather they will sacrifice the 2x-6x profit to spare the anemic bid sum of $12 million: a typical perma-bull fantasy..

I am more than happy to make this bet with you: 5 BTC in escrow.

If Mtgox gives a 80%-100% refund in coins, the price of Bitcoin will not decrease on increased volume more than $100 less than the day of the refund within 2 weeks of the refund.

Lets not make it personal ego talk.
Why complicate things when I will make the bet with the market to buy lower!

[Erdogan]

Ya, there's kind of a which came first, the chicken or the egg.  To get more adoption we need the price to go up, but for the price to go up we need more adoption.

The Chicken.
(always the chicken)

The mutation happened during the "reception" of the animal (the first "chicken"), a animal that happened to lay eggs.
not-chicken-DNS + not chicken-DNS + randomized mutation-> chicken  ---> first egg.

Please do not use "chicken and egg", because it can easily be answered.

Did you just write that the chicken came first? The mutation must necessarily have happened in one of the parents' gametes. Thus the fertilized egg came first. Alternatively, if we consider an unfertilized egg, then maybe was mutated into a chicken egg, maybe not, but it would not develop into a chicken anyway.

So the problem of which came first, is solved, and it was the egg.

[windjc]

will the 598 slowly creep down, pushing price along with it, then suddenly disappear while the owner buys up to 600?

Fake wall. Its been pretty obvious on this bounce, that someone(s) are wanting to keep the trendline downward. 598 is 50% Fib retracement.

[windjc]

Any predictions what will happen if this is true?
https://twitter.com/CanarslanEren/status/448418452701974528

If its true and assuming they refund people's bitcoins, then what will happen is that there will be a lot of happy people. Beyond that, not much will happen. A few people might sell some, but most people will hold. And overall community sentiment will be more positive. Probably not much difference in regards to price.

Yea sure! Goxxers who bought coins at 100-300 (huge volume happened in this range) will not sell for 500-600.
Rather they will sacrifice the 2x-6x profit to spare the anemic bid sum of $12 million: a typical perma-bull fantasy..

I am more than happy to make this bet with you: 5 BTC in escrow.

If Mtgox gives a 80%-100% refund in coins, the price of Bitcoin will not decrease on increased volume more than $100 less than the day of the refund within 2 weeks of the refund.

Lets not make it personal ego talk.
Why complicate things when I will make the bet with the market to buy lower!

That's fine. Its not about ego for me.

I just get so tired of hearing people constantly talk about how some "coinage" is going to be "dumped" on the market.

I have yet to see one real important example of this. EVER.

Yet, the same weaksauce FUD and paranoia continues to circulate over and over, the only thing changing is what "coinage" is supposedly going to be "dumped" today.

[Erdogan]

IRS Says Bitcoin is Property, Not Currency
In a notice, the IRS said that it generally would treat Bitcoin held by investors much like stock or other intangible property. If the virtual currency is held for investment, any gains would be treated as capital gains, meaning they could be subject to lower tax rates.

http://stream.wsj.com/story/markets/SS-2-5/SS-2-490994/

Probably willful confusion on the govenment side, just like the central bank reports.

It is not a currency, because it is not a generally used medium of exchange, ok, but it is money.

It is not virtual, it is complete, full, real, tangible money.

The expression "virtual currency" should really not be used for bitcoin, cryptocurrency is better, but the best name is cryptomoney.

[Adrian-x]

Good to see i'm not the only one starting to feel bullish when reading this thread. The sun is shining, summer is coming. Bitcoin u may rise now please.  

This is sad if Bitcoin price is dependent on how we feel about the weather.

I didn't say that, read again.

Thanks I'm very bullish too the new coming difficulty is going to change the market dynamic and I'm predicting bull run.

I would trust the "veterans" on here.  It is weird but there seems to be a certain "feel" in the air when things are about to change.  I am not really a true "veteran" but before the last run in November I had this same sort of "feeling" if you want to call it that.     We threw some money in then, not really expecting the crazy run that happened soon after, but so relieved we bought more when we did.  Knowing this we threw in a little more this week.  Not much though because we are pretty much "all in" already. 

"veterans"
Always do your own research, my research is slack - learn by osmosis. My "feeling" is braced on the new version 3 ASIC being launched by ASICminer, new players getting the new bitcoins = new market dynamic.  
But as this story unfolds I suspect the profits may not go to the share holders, but to spinoff like ROCKMINER, this is looking all to shady for me, so who knows, these guys wear their colours on their sleeves, they are looking to profit early and distribute the risk to the Bitcoin community, and possibly diminish  ASICminers shareholders dividends, I just can't tell if they will hold or sell the new coins.
Wait and see is how I'll proceed for now.