Could you elaborate? I am always open to criticism. We've been sideways almost two weeks, and any test/breakdown of supports is notable.

Bounce at this moving support but failure on momentum. I don't see much strength here. Looking to close the rest of my long on this bounce.

I don't think that trend line has much significance. The longer it goes on, the less useful it is. I think resistance based on recent price footprint is more relevant.

I still have a small portion of my long open from 3/10 that didn't stop out. I'm trying to close it in the 650s if I can. The last breach of 660 looked primed for takeoff; it was a false breakout and we declined. This will be the third attempt at cracking this resistance if we can get there. There were some short term bullish divergences after we broke down through 630, but I see a lot of resistance here, and won't be chasing price.



BFX longs are also at > 3:1 to shorts currently (based on price of 640), with ~ 16 million USD swapped, which is always good to keep in mind if we fail to breach this upside resistance.

I am thinking mid-term (1-2 months) bullish but I think we see some downside movement first. This move from 400 has not been characteristic of an impulsive one that would indicate to me the start of a new up trend. But the February down trend was much more predictable, so while I was fully leveraged short on several occasions then, I will not be now. Light and tight -- if at all. We are near the end of this bear market I think, but with sentiment so uber bullish (I don't know what rpietila was talking about with that one) despite a very congested and stagnated move upwards, I don't think we have seen the end of it.

IMO, something like this still possible--

Hmmm. Closing most of my long now while we're in the 640s, will see if we can push to 650s again, otherwise I'll let the rest stop out. A lot of choppiness here. This still could have been a 3-swing corrective up before sliding back down a little ways....

The bullish move I expected here is looking stronger than originally expected. Very nice bounce at key supports, not much pullback.



Close this 4H candle or two above this zone, and I may not be looking to exit that long in the 600s. I like some additional confirmation before getting too bullish, though....

I hear it. I'm about to throw in the towel. I figured it would turn around like it did last year, but it's become unbearable trying to eek anything useful or interesting out of this forum anymore. To anyone interested in technical analysis, I suggest hanging out in the TradingView chat. It's much more fulfilling.

If you pay attention, some do post their positions beforehand. Others don't. I don't take the latter very seriously.

Low volatility on what time frame? This can be true until those conditions cease to exist. What evidence suggests to you that they will continue? How do you distinguish between trends and counter trends?

It seems that this relies on an "extended period of low volatility", which I think necessarily omits many possibilities for price performance.

I can't add much to those thoughts as I do not attempt to extrapolate mid-term trends from long-term trends (well, I am only interested in mid-term trends -- you and I can likely agree on the long term, anyway). This is the nature of counter-trends. I did draw some charts to meet your conditions, but I don't understand why this should be predictive, rather than coincidental.

Nobody posts TA on this forum anymore. 

This has been my thinking for some time. We'll see.

What do you predict to be our extinction event?

Seeing some short term bullish divergences. We saw 5 waves down and what is starting to look like a local bottom. Typically I'd then look for a 3 wave corrective to the upside. If this plays out, it helps to confirm that the dominant trend is still down. I don't think there is all that much room for upside here. Buying pressure looks weak. Let's take it to 666!



Then, there's this:



Not sure if this is valid based on previous trend, though...

As I've asked you before, could you explain to us, how exactly providing liquidity to the market adds to volatility? Thought experiment: Remove traders from the equation. What do the order books look like then? And we're the ones adding to volatility?

As per usual, feel free to continue dishing out insults while refusing to acknowledge reality. 

TradingView indicators have been down system wide for an hour or two now. With Wisdom so unreliable lately too, this is getting frustrating... not sure where else to look for charts/indicators. Bitcoinity and i286 aren't useful at all to me. I guess there's Bitcoincharts...

Didn't get that final push to 700 I was hoping for.  

This has been my primary chart the last couple of days. It found me a couple good entries and exits, and is still on target. My target for this push was 650, doubt we'll get there. Short term up trend broken, but we're still straddling a fib support. (The arrows are not time-based)


Bounces aside, I'm looking for a downside target that overshoots the 50% retracement (710->400). Hopefully find entry near 539-557. This would keep us outside of February's down channel. But if it does play out anything like this, it means we aren't out of the woods yet, and a strong snap back from the 610 level (or below) could indicate a return to sub-500s.


Also, I like this guy's thoughts, entry at 586. More bullish.

What reaction did you expect?

Yeah, I didn't really buy any of that shit, though. Hence my question. Looks like it ain't him, anyway...