This is not a bubble. Adoption in China is going on.
What is your definition of adoption? Is it just entry of speculators? Or something else? Because I haven't heard of anything else going on. If the former, not sure I agree. It's obvious that big crashes shake out weak hands, leaving strong hands, almost by definition.
Like, something tangible / observable? So, no go on that? Price goes back up -- we assume that strong hands are now holding? |
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Go FinShaggy!  What's good for devtome is good for us all... all sounds good to me.  |
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I sold a few coins ~ $190 (BTC-E). Gotta lock in a bit of profit sometime. BTC-E hasn't breached $200, anyway. |
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Google trends image. What exactly is fueling this rally? This tells me it's old money doing the same all over.  maybe there is a service called "baidu trends"? Zero trade fees in china is fueling this pump/fake-rally. Zero trade fees are what's called "free market." So I have no idea why you think that would distort the market. It's pretty easy to fake volume when there are no financial constraints to doing so. Don't you think? A single whale can repeatedly buy and sell his own coins. (That's not to say the market won't roll over him or that this is what is happening) Sure you can manipulate volume. How will that help in manipulating price? You don't think manipulating volume can affect price action? Re price manipulation, that would depend on how much of the coins/fiat on the exchange is controlled by the whale. Is it impossible that one could drive up the inter-exchange rate this way? Or would he just be run over by arbitrage? I don't really know, I'm just brainstorming... |
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I saw criminal court filings posted on ice.gov stating charges against Ross Ulbricht. How does that affect this analysis? Very interesting -- some real conspiracy porn here (great read) -- but I don't know about this.
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Google trends image. What exactly is fueling this rally? This tells me it's old money doing the same all over. maybe there is a service called "baidu trends"? Zero trade fees in china is fueling this pump/fake-rally. Zero trade fees are what's called "free market." So I have no idea why you think that would distort the market. It's pretty easy to fake volume when there are no financial constraints to doing so. Don't you think? A single whale can repeatedly buy and sell his own coins. (That's not to say the market won't roll over him or that this is what is happening) |
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This is a good point. It seems sensible to think that the entire GPU-mining economy switching from BTC to LTC would skew the market. I mean, who's gonna buy all those coins?
The number of coins produced per day has nothing to do with the number of people mining. Difficulty changes ensure that the coin production rate is constant. This is pretty basic stuff. Not the number of coins per day. The dynamic of a new class of miners entering with the intention of mining LTC in order to exchange to BTC, creating persistent downward pressure on LTC/BTC rate. Maybe it's just something that sounded right in my head but is way off.... |
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Plus all of the weak hands have been scared off the exchanges after the bubble burst in Apr. Now there are a lot of people holding their coins no matter what.
Is there any sort of a basis for the strong hands / weak hands theory? Like, something tangible / observable? So many people state this "fact", but it just seems like a wild assumption to me. |
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This rally being China-driven is very frustrating considering how volatile movement has been on Chinese exchanges... such thin market depth is really hard to read. I am worried about the virtually non-existent bid support.
If it is "China-driven", why are USD exchanges making new highs while CNY exchanges consolidate? The Chinese exchanges shot up in price much, much faster than western exchanges on the 10/22 morning rally. One exchange peaked at $240 USD equivalent. Since USD exchanges were lagging behind quite a bit, they didn't have to correct to the same magnitude. Chinese exchange rate being so far above Gox was not sustainable. |
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and why do consumers put up with it when they systematically leak info (not to mention screw up their data).
What are people gonna do, write their congressman? I'm sure they do. Take to the streets over credit reporting? I don't see it happening. I think people are complacent about it at this point... it's so commonplace whether or not you take the CRAs into consideration. What do their congressmen have to do with anything? You can't blame big government for this one (at least not directly). This is entirely an issue with a private business. If you don't like their practices, do exactly what the free market says you should and discontinue your dealings with them. What? You can't "discontinue your dealings" with credit reporting agencies. That's not up to you. The file they maintain is based on data submitted from financial institutions, courts, employers. All you can do is ask for them to remove inaccurate information and dispute claims. Your data is theirs and there ain't nothing you can do about it. |
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An observation:
Last March/April, during the media coverage, my friends and family were interested in hearing about bitcoin, but not a single one took the next step and purchased any.
But now, upon hearing about the recent run-up, three people in my network are making small purchases. They are starting to believe there's really something to it.
So, its a bubble? What would make you think that? When people start buying in to something because the price is going up, to me.. that sounds like a bubble scenario. I think people are seeing the value of their fiat going down. I think they are just trying to get rid of that soon to worthless fiat and see BTC as safe. That seems pretty crazy and unlikely to me, considering BTC's volatility and specifically, the bubble and subsequent pop 6 months ago. I also don't think the average person views their fiat as "soon to be worthless". That's a bit extreme. |
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So, let's say bitcoin is worth $1,000,000. To send a hundred satoshis, is it still going to cost me many hundreds of times that much in transaction fees? Off-chain only for transactions < $50,000?  |
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I would like to purchase $50 USD worth of bitcoin, but the whole process is confusing, can anyone give me a rundown of the possible ways to complete this?
I always felt like the easiest way was P2P. Post in the marketplace, or localbitcoins, and make an offer in exchange for whatever payment method works best. It always worked for me. |
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I haven't looked into zero-coin protocol all that much, but from what people say, once it starts being implemented in bitcoin, the prospect for anonymity become much stronger.
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I bought thinking they would keep going up but woops!
This is why I am bothered by the "it's always a good time to buy bitcoin" attitude around here. It takes a long term perspective that new investors simply don't have, by and large. Why do you assume that new investors don't have a long term perspective? Do you think the average new blood entering during parabolic growth are doing so because of a long term perspective? I don't. Maybe I'm off. |
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and why do consumers put up with it when they systematically leak info (not to mention screw up their data).
What are people gonna do, write their congressman? I'm sure they do. Take to the streets over credit reporting? I don't see it happening. I think people are complacent about it at this point... it's so commonplace whether or not you take the CRAs into consideration. |
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If Litecoin was Dead then why are alt coins being traded against it on www.cryptsy.com . Because it's worth so much less than bitcoin... so people could trade all the crap coins that are worth less than a satoshi. |
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So the chinese government will want to ban bitcoin when it is larger, since it cannot bend the knee.
How?
I answered this before, and you haven't read it. Just search for keyword "Zeng" in this thread. Here is more information: among the 7 Chinese exchange service providers that I am monitoring, only btcchina published a name and an address on their website, all others anonymous. All exchange providers do not accept direct bank transfer (nor domestic nor international) and only accept money through virtual accounts on alipay/tenpay (like paypal in China) because it is easier to fake personal information on these virtual accounts. Now you realize being anonymous is bad for running exchange service business - how do you entrust others to put money on your trading account? So why do they still choose to be anonymous? Because they want to keep their body alive, even a billionaire like Zeng cannot save his life. In other words, those who operate btcchina is betting their lives or runnning incognito without our awareness. They are either the bravest or they are the biggest fraud. If they used real names, they still have a good chance to keep their body (not company) alive, as they are betting Central Government being more cautious on killing, while provincial government less, and bitcoin is going to be a central government issue. But nevertheless they are betting their lives. And I am not yet sure if btcchina people deserve a lot of respect, they could be just too greedy than too bold (their 0% trade fee policy and higher volume than MtGox fits the picture of the ubiquitous winner-take-all ambition in China, a characteristic of our time). I am afraid I have to disagree with you on two things: 1) BTCChina accepts direct bank transfer. 2) Running an bitcoin exchange is different than running a stock exchange or opening a virtual IPO. It's just a platform for people to buy/sell a commodity (BTC is not treated as currency yet in China). So I don't think they are risking their life. They may be force closed and fined, or even charged for tax, license issues, but definitely not terminated as long as they do not just flee with all traders' money. I like your analysis, but please don't exaggerate and keep objective. Are you Chinese? Are you in the best position to talk of objectivity? I'm not, and I'm not going to make a rash judgment and assume what OP is saying is unlikely. But your idea of punishment under the Chinese system definitely sounds like the perspective of a westerner. There are many executions in China for what are white collar crimes in the west. Zeng Chengjie was executed 2 years ago for fraudulent fundraising and was executed before his family was notified. They maintain his innocence. People are illegally imprisoned all the time. Talk of law and lawyers means nothing when they will disappear you and imprison your lawyers if need be. As of a couple years ago, people could be executed for petty crimes like drunk driving and bicycle thievery. And in China, there is a history of executions (including public executions) as a warning/deterrent. "Killing a chicken to scare the monkeys" The kicker is that we know so little about executions in China because data about them are treated as state secrets. |
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The price of a single bitcoin is irrelevant. "A bitcoin" simply a useful accounting distinction. Did you know you can acquire 1/100,000,000 of a bitcoin?
If total valuation of bitcoin grows from $2 billion to $2 trillion (competing with market cap of gold, an incredible feat, but not impossible), then that person who scraped together $1k for "just 5 coins" is now sitting on almost $1 million.
The boats will rise and fall. Bitcoin is young, but has surprising levels of momentum. If not bitcoin, then it's successor. The future is uncertain. Promise and wonder glimmers in the distant horizon.
Has there been discussion of transaction fees in this context? I've never looked into it. How valuable is a satoshi when transaction fees cost many, many, many times more? |
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How are these corporations? Isn't a corporation, by definition, created by government? Anyway, just semantics, I guess.
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