Indeed, it was during the selloff to $160 and the losses would have been substantial had I cut them. Instead, seeing that we were at a likely capitulation/selling climax after whales sold us off in reaction to the Bitstamp hack news (perfect finale to the bear market, bravo guys) I wasn't about to sell into it. Instead I bought heavily into the selloff and secondary test when I saw it was on low volume, averaging out my trade downward to bank a great profit when it went to $300 on the reaction.

Obviously the sell climax created a unique situation. Crazy trade that turned out to be though

They will continue in the direction of least resistance according to supply and demand. That is why after capitulation they began pumping instead of dumping. Fighting natural market forces is a good way to go broke, any market professional knows this. They won't do it. There is also a good chance that they can see both sides of the market and have insider connections--so they know when to mark the price up or down ahead of how much fiat is entering the exchanges and what kind of news is coming out.

They've tested the hell out of this price range and it resulted in an accumulation gradient of rising bottoms (likely by multiple competing interests). This is bullish. They see this. We will test downward as many times as needed to break $300. If it means that they hold most of the coins on Finex to do this, so be it. They will be distributed later.

I've done it. Had a losing trade that ended up over 20% in the green because I held through. Not optimal, but it worked out. I'm a position trader so I'm holding onto trades for weeks and the cost of the loan is a very small percentage of my overall profits.

I don't trade with stop losses. Whales actively gun for them, so why give them the bait?

It's possible though margin cascades are hard to predict. There might not be enough selling to even get us sub $280 at this point, though we might go there again due to low volume in general. When the market leaders are bullish and want to go up, watch them shake out the market downward as many times as it takes to clean out enough supply to do it while supporting certain price levels. They have both the bankroll and patience for this and it is a profitable thing to do as it fills their longs and builds retail shorts.

Those longs who are well capitalized would need sub $200 to get margin called, and that price is close to bear delusion at this point. I expect they would hold through, just as some of the well funded shorts are doing who allowed themselves to be trapped during capitulation. I expect they, on the other hand, are getting mighty nervous as their danger zone is in the $300s. Some of the bearish activity you see is likely groups of them protecting their positions--I saw this activity all the way up from the bottom--seems to work well enough until a whale with a pump bot comes along and decides to annihilate them.

There's still a chance this could break down and fill in below $280, which opens the door to breaking the rising bottom trendline at $260. However this is not what I think will happen (but many chartists are calling for it).

If you're not already in now, the lower risk trade would be to go long after $300 is broken and becomes support, confirming the break.

Picked up .05% yesterday.

Still pushing up with rising bottoms, kind of like a wonky ascending triangle. The rising lows are what's important, indicating accumulation.

No it almost for sure will not. But good news during a potential bull market could be an important catalyst to tip the scales, and SXSW is a pretty huge deal. Hell, my wife has met Sally Field and the CEO of McDonalds already--it's like a celebrity and who's who parade. I'll make sure she attends the Winklevoss presentation tomorrow.

I'm not saying it will ignite a super-rally, but it might get us over $300.

No selling.

If you're in the green, simply change the swap cost to term instead of daily.

SXSW is a pretty huge festival in the US, so it will get the attention of a young demographic. All of the biggest PR and ad agencies are there promoting clients' products... that's exactly why the wife is there.

Winklevoss twins speaking about Bitcoin at SXSW tomorrow in Texas, surprised no one has mentioned this. I didn't even know about it until my wife told me that she's going to watch.

I disagree with this. Most of the Chinese trade volume is wash which pumps up existing transactions which are quite small in comparison. Look at Huobi for example: The orderbooks don't come close to matching the volume. The majority of transactions are simply small amounts being traded back and forth by the same accounts.

I imagine some miners are hedging in the futures markets. That's what futures were originally created for--to protect against future price fluctuations of commodities.

It's always a trap, adam. If you are a huge whale, how can you mark the price up the cheapest way possible?

-clean out the selling, test bear strength by dumping the market a bit
-get newbs/gamblers to open new shorts
-get longs to cover and take profit (better now than during a markup which you would have to absorb)
-get your own longs filled at lower prices

Works the opposite in a bear market. Now when they push back up there will be less selling and the new shorts will either cover or get called, adding further fuel.

It's all part of the game if you trade with enough coin to alter trends. Think like a predator and not the prey.

Now if you see big volume pushing through, say, $275, then that's an indication that the big boys are selling. If there is relatively lower volume (especially during a retest of a price area) then they are not and it is probably a test.

Bear puts up 300+ ask wall, starts to get nibbled but holds

Bull market buys it with a 320 coin order

Bear immediately anger dumps 500+ coins, showing his hand and emotional state

This is not the activity of a good trader. Plenty of gamblers left to extract money from.

You might try spelling it correctly regardless of what you think of the project.

Indeed. I think there's a strong case for it. I do position trading using the daily chart so I'm not overly concerned with smaller down moves within the larger uptrend, which to this point haven't been very convincing.

At any rate this sideways consolidation has gotten to be pretty boring, but as they say, the longer the consolidation the stronger the break. Still looking at $330-$350 as my next sell target.

Just to prove that I'm not a complete moron, here are links to my trades.

I'm still long from the second chart, in fact I added to my position a bit.

https://i.imgur.com/P15wNHG.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/SVgsstM.png

I see. Well we may get a little more downside, but I wouldn't personally be short here. If we can't go down and we can't go up, we go sideways/drift upwards until a) significant supply shows up or b) bulls push through. And with a capitulation/rising bottom gradient in the background putting demand in control (this is why we tend to drift upwards), I give greater probability to scenario b.

Daily chart? Seems pretty bullish to me. I guess it depends on your definition.

Lately you seem to get excited about these low-volume shakeouts. You do realize they are meant to lock traders into poor positions.

Not enough ammo to go down, that's what defines a bull market. So we dance along the edge of the top resistance until we build enough power to jump over it.