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Next bubble it'd be nice to insure against the drop by buying some puts. Then get more coin back after the dip.
Anyone do this late last year? Besides some, I believe, thinly traded MPEx stuff, I don't know of a market....
Perhaps someone here would be willing to write contracts.
I see lots of advantage to this strategy. I could never short the coin. And selling to buy back has many disadvantages (exchange risk, tax liability, etc.)
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So miners who 51% the side-chain can steal coins?
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Bitcoin's a fad and it's on fire...
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woot!! all aboard the 1k party train!
Haha, I love you guys. |
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So should we abandon bitcoin?
No. You should stop selling for so cheap. |
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Who feels it? This morning I woke up, read what was going on, and felt a slight bit of panic creep into my mind. Now, I could totally botch it this time around, but if my history with bitcoin tells me anything, I'm on the verge of significantly increasing my wealth again. Still waiting for the psychological pressure I feel to get stronger, but it seems to be pretty clearly on its way.
Let's do this thing. See you at the $1000 party? |
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The feds in the US already got SR coins for free. Now the Chinese want cheap coins too. The reversal is going to be fun.
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Analysis holding up nicely. Let's see how low we go.
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Not quite. Miners will do whatever gives more benefit to themselves. Is the 21 million BTC cap good for them?
Yes, it is. Without it, their BTC would become worthless. I'm quite sure that BTC will be destroyed by miners one day, not because it is in their interest, but because people do things which are against their own interests. But that will not happen before we can switch to a more distributed protocol with higher immunity. What will this protocol look like? Less mining pools? Can't we just patch Bitcoin? |
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Looking forward to the March stats. Will they be out soon?
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The point of wealth is to buy goods and services which improve your quality of life. A big pile of cash doesn't have much direct value (can't eat it, can't drink it, doesn't make good insulation, wouldn't keep you warm for long, not really entertaining to just watch it, it can't keep you alive if you get sick, injured, or poisoned).
The quote in the OP is only true is either
a) The Bitcoin rich never convert that digital wealth into goods and services. They die sick, tired, poor, and probably alone. Kinda defeats the purpose of acquiring the coins to begin with right?
or
b) They are so amazing at managing their wealth that they continually acquire more coins than they spend. Of course if that was true they likely are already incredibly wealthy in conventional terms. Given the number of people who lose funds to scammers, hackers, insanely bad business decisions, gambling, etc I would say the average Bitcoiner is no "financial genius".
Between a & b the coins will spread out one way or another. Also the idea that wealth is finite and currency is all the wealth is flawed. Global wealth in on the order of $100T however global money supply is only ~$50B. Money only makes up 0.1% of all the wealth on the planet. Bitcoin isn't going to be any different in that respect.
If you own a $200K house (mortgage paid) and I own $200K in BTC then everything else being the same we are equally wealthy. I could trade my $200K in BTC for a house and you could sell (or mortgage) your house to buy $200K in BTC. While $200K in BTC might be a sizeable portion of the Bitcoin money supply, all money supplies are a rounding error on total wealth.
Global money supply is much more than $50b. M1 in USD is at least 2.5 trillion. |
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What do you guys guess per share dividends will total over the next year?
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Can you tell us some other sources to introduce us to your style of analysis? I'm not familiar with many of the terms you use but am guessing they are some form of systems or chaos theory.
Edit : for aminorex. Sorry for brevity, posting from a phone on EVDO from Ketala.
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I see many new threads of people shorting Bitcoin at current prices. The time to short was on the way down from $800 to $450, this is supposed to be when those shorts are covered! (At least that's what I'm doing). Judging by the sentiment here and the oscillators on the 1day, 3day and 1week scales, the capitulation bottom occurs within 8 days, then it's all green as bears begin the old denial dance, attributing the rise to "whale manipulation" Careful out there, don't get fleeced by Mr. Market  agree with you just HOLD, don't panic sell your BTC who is mr. market? someone who try to control market price? Mr. Market is a slang term for the overall market. He attempts to take from the masses.  this is a somewhat competitive game after all. |
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Let the cycle begin anew. |
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Selling to buy back lower to increase ones position is one thing (provided your hunch is right and it does indeed go lower). But anyone that panics sells when 30%-50% underwater and "locks in" their losses just baffles me... I'm at a complete loss for words. All because they have zero patience??
Yea it doesn't make any sense but some people are more adverse to risk and the bitcoin story does seem too good to be true. Also, most don't take the time to understand the underlying technology, either from a computational or economic perspective. Edit: I don't think it'll go that much lower for long. Me even posting this is evidence of my own form of feeling despair if I must be honest. |
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Recently a friend sold for $483. He had heard about the coin years ago and he was disappointed he didn't have any. So he bought late last year around $1000. He was despairing over the IRS news. He never really had faith in the coin and just wanted to make quick money. He had never traded anything before and was often panicking.
I've seen this before with other positions. So many people asked about gold and bought in during the final months in late 2011. Same for silver in the early part of that year.
This behavior helps one pick tops because you can see it in plain day. People always want to get in just at the end of the cycle. It's always a sad and disappointing that they weren't able to ride the wave of good times.
I previously ignored it but now I use it to diversify my positions. Quite contrarian, yes. I would feel bad doing it but it's practically like clockwork.
So now we can get ready for the next level up. Although I've only seen this work on picking tops I guess it can also pick bottoms to short term cycles in the secular bull market that bitcoin has been enjoying.
Anyone with similar experiences?
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Reminds me of the days people said... H T T P COLON BACK SLASH BACK SLASH .... meanwhile it is not even a backslash, but that sounds more "technical" than slash. |
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So DPR posts his real name in these forums, and then Satoshi turns out to be Satoshi? Truth is always stranger than fiction...
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