One big reason for the inflation is that supply is disrupted.
Supply is not just being 'disrupted', it is straight up being shrunk on purpose. For many things the supply will never again go back to pre-Covid levels, at least not for a very long time. People think supply will resume and thus plentiful, cheaper goods are going to come bouncing back here soon... news flash, they won't. And everyone top to bottom is in on it. As a side note, I was watching a Jim Cramer video clip on CNBC today, and caught him muttering to another talking head, "Well, you know, the Fed would like to see companies cut back on producing so much... that's why they're doing what they're doing." He *actually* said that on air. My mouth dropped open. I was like, WTAF did I just hear?? So the Fed is now dictating or directing how much 'supply' of goods and services corporations will produce, by throttling the Fed funds rate. Wow, just wow. |
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Gets maimed by the vax Still encourages others to get maimed Wears a cool eye patch and kinda smiles 🤡 🤡 🤡 🌍  |
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I am not expecting this, but is it possible that they truly lost it? We shall see. Will 3.5-3.75 interest rate be enough by the EOY? There is a nice video from Ben Cowen about inflation and stock market. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D0fM5nlujp4One thing that was informative is that seventies had three inflation spikes, followed by valleys, but the first one was smaller than our current spike, but it is entirely possible that it would work out like this (my speculation): 1. A current spike extending to EOY (inflation peaking maybe at 9, and probably below 10). 2. Markets at the lowest with inflation at the highest. 3. Decline in inflation (2023-2024) to 3.5-4% with stocks (and bitcoin) recovering and peaking in 2025 with bitcoin at 100K or slightly (20-40%) above and stocks within 5-10% of the prior peak (could be small ATH). 4. Second spike in inflation to 9-12% (maybe by 2026-2027). Fed rate at something currently unimaginable (maybe 5-7% or even higher), markets crushed again, but making higher lows (including btc). The bear cycle ends around 2028-2032 with prices still significantly higher than in 2026-2027. 5. Inflation finally going down, FED is easing profusely, a new secular bull market in everything (could last 20 years). Bitcoin cycles diminished, much smoother ride (for those who are still around). The whole world now runs on cheap debt. There are some very smart people who believe that the Fed cannot sustain rates on the 10-yr higher than 4%, because legit shit in the global financial system will start breaking down. The stonk market will begin to implode, global bank liquidity will vanish, corporate zombies will go bankrupt, and worldwide sovereign debt defaults galore. Not to mention just the interest alone that will need to be paid every year on America's national debt...unobtainable and unsustainable. If we have long periods of the 10-yr above 4%, something will eventually start to break. Which I believe is the Fed's plan all along, they need something to catastrophically break down so that they can have a convenient excuse to slam rates back to 0-1% and moar money printer go brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr. |
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That argument defeats itself, because it cuts both ways: You fail to account for leverage in the opposite direction.
I strongly suspect that the current $20k–$22k range is a mirage, caused by massive organized dumping of the market using borrowed coins.
The price range right now is not real, except to three types of people: (a) Fools who got long-squeezed and liquidated like me, (b) buyers who prudently kept reserves available to buy BTC now, and (c) whoever the hell is reaping huge dollar profits from shorting Bitcoin. OK, well, I guess that the price now is real. By your argument, it is not real.
You mean like exchange owners house trading on the own exchanges, naked shorting with re-hypothecated coins to push the price below real market value in order to scoop up more cheap coins? That's pure crazy talk! No way they are doing something like that! /s |
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To all those whining about "back to $20k sucks" and "We fell from a high of $68k". This is something that the Bitcoiner newbies, whiny traders, and even some OG veterans need to understand. Repeat after me:  The price range all last year was never real. It was a mirage. The support price when "excessive leverage has left the building" is the only thing that determines true market value. |
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Imagine buying in Dec 2017 at $19,326 just to see it at $21,326 after 5 years of HODL.  Imagine buying a flash top 5 years prior (that lasted all of a 2 days btw, so no one did that), just to see it turn into a solid support level 5 years later? Yeah, we are so dumb. If ~$68k becomes solid support w/o leverage 5 years from now, I'll take that progress over the shitty stonk market any day. |
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the tide will turn eventually... all the brrrr money has to go somewhere... keeping cash is no option long-term call me delusional but I wouldn't be surprised, if we saw 100k within a year.. the road for that possibility is just getting cleared from all the obstacles aka lending (=shorting) scams and weak hands edit: ok, let's say 2 years  Not delusional. If the Fed reverses this is a possible outcome. Bitcoiners don't want a flash high to $100k that lasts all of a few days at most. Not useful. What we want (or should be wanting) is a sustainable $100k of support. |
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OT:
One really foreboding sign going on in the debt market is that 10 yr bond yield.
Keep your eyes on it.
It is a really bad sign to see the 10-yr incrementally jump 0.1 points every single trading day.
It is signaling really bad things in the debt market.
The Fed better have a plan to stabilize that.
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BREAKING: Nearly $103 Million worth of MicroStrategy's Bitcoin has been liquidated amid massive $BTC sell-off below $21,000 support.
No it hasn't, troll. Another /ignore |
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Near the top of bull markets, the MSM and the "expert analysts" will all give you 1000+ reasons why the markets are going much higher. The uber bullishness hopium is off the charts.
One of the great things that modern media has done is show that "experts" presented to you through mass media are often very little different from some dude who just turned on their webcam and started talking on YouTube. And in some cases, vastly less qualified. Funny and convenient how 99.9999% of all those "crypto experts" on YT are all specifically shitcoin experts. But don't seem to have any expertise or TA on the Bitcoin market? Where did all the shitcoin shills come from? And more importantly, who is subsidizing them to hawk the shit during bull runs? Lol. |
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Keep in mind that the very top of bull markets, and the very bottom of bear markets, the narrative rhetoric is all the same:
Near the top of bull markets, the MSM and the "expert analysts" will all give you 1000+ reasons why the markets are going much higher. The uber bullishness hopium is off the charts.
And it often doesn't reach their lofty predictions.
Near the bottom of bear markets, the MSM and the "expert analysts" (often the same ones) will all give you 1000+ reasons why the markets are going much lower. The uber bearishness doom-and-gloom is off the charts.
And it often doesn't reach their lowly predictions.
This is all by design.
They want you to be "all in" at the top (because greed), and "all out" at the bottom (because fear).
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Also.. as much as I wanted this to be the bottom... I sure don't think it is acting like it is. I want it to be V shaped. It wants to be a dead cat.
Dude, you keep saying that. Not every bottom is a V-shaped response. 2018 bottom is a perfect example. |
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Capitulating markets keep capitulating until enough people who swore they would never sell, no matter how low it goes, finally declare they have had enough and sell out just to stop the pain. I call this a "porcelain sell-off"
I've seen it many times over the years in many mkts
 Source: https://twitter.com/PeterLBrandt/status/1536351886948933635 Peter is super wise and insightful. Particularly when he is not taking jabs at bitcoin maxis. I get why he is annoyed by them... they are arrogant little pricks most of them. And his understanding of markets would do them a lot of good. But they are usually too busy "ok boomering" him to hear him. lol. I expect this level of the 2017 peak is going to cause a LOT of capitulation, particularly for the class of 2017. I am surprised we came this low, and I would also be surprised if we go lower... sort of. It kind of seems like that is in the cards for sure. I wish i had some cash. We MAY have seen the main puking... but it does not look like it. :/ Peter thinks Bitcoin will go to $13,000, that's another $9,000 drop from here. Not saying it won't happen. But last time in 2018/2019 when we were at ~$3000/btc, many well respected "analysts" were saying it was going to dump again to $1000. Never happened. Just food for thought. |
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It’s not just bitcoin taking a beating, look at stonks.  Recession incoming, buy as much bitcoin as you can. I like this version better:  |
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My latest activity:
1. Read thread
2. Log in, just to put the latest troll acct on /ignore
3. Any acct that gives that troll acct kudos, pats, merits, or "you're awesome" bs also goes on /ignore
4. Log out
It's getting tedious now. May have to ghost this forum for a few months.
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OT: Anyone want to explain to me how a company like Peloton (PTON) can even go public IPO on the stonk market?
Launched in 2019 @ $25/share. Now $10/share, three years later.
I mean srsly? WTAF?
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You wouldn't be the first. |
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As mega amounts of fiat cash leave the equities and bond markets, it won't just disappear into thin air.
It will be looking at the Fed's actions to decide what to do next.
If the Fed insists on killing future growth by hiking rates even more and tapering bond purchases to fight inflation, then all that cash will be looking to run into assets and commodities.
Like Bitcoin.
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Fuck off troll God, my /ignore list just keeps getting longer and longer |
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