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481  Economy / Exchanges / Re: New FTX CEO charging $1300 per hour on: November 21, 2022, 11:37:51 PM
Do you think such high fees is justified ?


I would say that the majority of CEO's are overpaid.

We can look at former twitter CEO Parag Agrawal as evidence of this. Parag was CEO of twitter for more than 12 months and was unable to implement anything more cutting edge than an edit button which is trivial technology and code. CEOs of other big tech corporations also have not done much to innovate or progress their industry. The efforts of some like Mark Zuckenberg (multiverse) also stand out. There is a question of whether CEOs are deliver value equal to what they're paid, which could be in dispute atm.

When Bill Gates was acting CEO of microsoft he admitted that the only thing he did was read and answer emails all day. The job doesn't require specialized knowledge or skillset in most cases. And I would guess if most knew what their job entailed they wouldn't think that it was deserving of $10,000 an hour salary along with the considerable incentives and golden parachute arrangements they enjoy in their contracts.
482  Economy / Exchanges / Re: What does Proof of Reserves mean and... on: November 21, 2022, 11:29:39 PM
This is a very old discussion which has its roots in something called fractional reserve banking. For crypto this stems back to the 2017 topic of bitfinex and tether. There was an investigation launched in 2017 to see whether tether had the liquidity to buyback every token they issued at a price of $1 in order to maintain pegging to the dollar. This is essentially identical to a gold standard where a government guarantees every dollar it issues can be redeemed for its value in gold. As financial standards go, there are very high ratings.

Modern finance has drifted in the direction of greater risk and greater profits. Which is generally associated with higher credit and liquidity. Low(er) fractional reserves correlates with all of these trends, as does modern inventions such as trickle down economics and modern monetary theory.

483  Economy / Economics / Re: Ontario Teacher's Pension Plan accepts their loss on: November 21, 2022, 11:22:39 PM
This issue isn't exclusive to the crypto industry. 401ks and pension plans have been battered by stock losses over the last two years. Even Warren Buffett could be losing money with his current stock investments in known trades. Such as his recent selling of wells fargo to buy citigroup stock.

Inflation also is not having positive effects on retirement and pension plans, despite assurances that it would only be temporary and transitory in nature.

It is not only pension plans on the crypto side which are taking a beating. Its happening everywhere. Everyone's pension and retirement plans are being demolished whether they're denominated in fiat or crypto.

I don't think anyone would argue that the FTX situation is very strange. The number of exchange hacks in 2022 is very strange.

When crypto was first introduced into the finance world there was something called cold wallets which were used to prevent these types of hacks. If we want a legitimate discussion we can pose a question of why crypto finance which was founded upon principles of reliability and durability drifted away from the use of cold wallets as a standard protocol.
484  Economy / Economics / Re: Corrupt people in crypto on: November 21, 2022, 11:16:16 PM
What do you think are the required steps to prevent these incidences from occurring in future ? Or are these unavoidable ?



People typically look to God or governments to do all the hard work to protect them. It is a strange scenario where the human brain is the most powerful thing people possess. Yet most pride themselves in not learning and developing their minds, which is one of their strongest assets. People expect leaders and the rich to protect them. But most leaders and the wealthy want people to remain unknowledgeable and limited as it makes it easier to persuade workers to accept pay cuts and also easier to boost profits.

The area where the biggest gains can be made is by average and ordinary people making more of an effort to learn, develop their minds and knowledge. That is the only thing that can ever have the potential to abolish things like poverty and corruption. The only reason corruption can exist is due to a lack of education and lack of knowledge empowering it.
485  Economy / Economics / Re: Notable people on current and upcoming economic issues - should we be worried? on: November 21, 2022, 10:42:10 PM
When financial advisors lack good advice, they preach diversification. Throw your money at everything and hope something works! The same principle could apply to inflation and economic recession atm.

Commodities were one of the first options people turned to when discussions of "transitory inflation" arose. Real estate was another hot topic, although with the steep decline in home loans a housing crash is expected despite abysmal levels of new real estate construction. While there is a relatively new thing called fractional real estate investment which can allow small cap investors to invest in real estate, I'm not certain whether or not those small cap shares are too diluted.

Which leaves the best option for most being entry level commodities. The price of lumber has exhibited several massive spikes recently starting with COVID in 2020. It is possible that wood, lumber and trees are all deflationary assets. Considering they are being cut down at a far faster rate than they can be replenished. To add to price strains, firewood has become a well performing asset during winter as many search for alternatives to heat their homes.

While gold, silver, platinum and other high priced commodities might exist outside the reach of most investors. Metals may not be the best commodities market to invest in. Technology and mining methods are constantly improving. Allowing for minerals and metals to be stripped from the earth more quickly and efficiently.

I think wood and lumber might be a decent asset class given them being long term deflationary. Even if people wanted to regrow lost forest, they couldn't do it as they would lack space. The quantity of arable land on the planet shrinks every year leaving less available space to regrow lost trees. Even if we have a current influx of lumber which is temporarily maintaining an affordable price for lumber. Over the long term I think the chart will correct and the price will rise.

486  Economy / Economics / Re: Household debt soars at fastest pace in 15 years as credit card use surges, Fed on: November 21, 2022, 08:50:53 PM
Understand the times we are in and live within your means because 2023 is coming and if you are affected economically and you have no back up plan, how would you pay off those debts?




The best strategy people can have is "tax the rich, eat the rich sell things to the rich". The wealthy are usually not intelligent enough to spend their funds wisely and love to buy expensive and overpriced junk. Brand name luxury items from overpriced luxury stores are a prime example. Gucci, armani, rolex, versace, etc. These luxury items are never good investments or intelligent ways to allocate wealth. And show how the wealthy often have impulsive spending habits, where they will pay top dollar for overpriced garbage that will only depreciate in value over time.

These spending habits apply to ebay and many open markets across the internet. You might think that no one would buy x, y or z for a high price. But there are often rich and wealthy people who will pay a higher price for what things are worth if they see it. Which opens the door to craftsman and makers being able to produce products which will sell at a higher price than expected.

To cite one example, this youtuber bought a stainless steel nut for less than $1 dollar. Grinded and buffed it into a stainless steel ring, which he then resold for $1,000.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xQl2Yn6Hzq8

Of course, this was years ago and since then jewelry markets have been flooded with copycats which no longer makes it possible to reproduce.

But it still shows how someone with a little imagination, tools and skills can resell items to the rich for much more than they're worth.

487  Economy / Economics / Climate Regulations Are About to Disrupt Global Shipping on: November 17, 2022, 11:51:20 PM
Quote
Even as companies around the world continue to struggle with the impacts of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine on global supply chains, there is another challenge looming: new environmental regulations that promise to change how shipping companies operate many transoceanic and regional routes.

New rules from the International Maritime Organization (IMO), the United Nations agency responsible for regulating global shipping, will have significant implications for how container lines design their services and will have consequences for production location choices that underpin global supply chains. Plus, European Union regulations that are likely to be passed before the end of 2022 and whose initial phase would begin in 2023 promise to add additional costs and complexity. Managers in supply chain and sourcing need to start planning for these changes.

A Major Generator of Greenhouse Gases

Maritime transport is the backbone of international trade. It is the most cost-effective way to move large volumes of goods such as oil, mineral ores, grains, and containerized cargo over long distances. But it has also attracted attention for its environmental impact: It accounts for 3% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

The problem is that most ship engines burn heavy marine fuel oil, which produces not only carbon dioxide (CO2) but other pollutants as well. In a study published in 2015, the IMO projected that CO2 emissions associated with the sector could increase as much as 250% between 2014 and 2050 if abatement steps were not taken. Moreover, emissions are difficult to eliminate because of the need to consume large amounts of energy over long distances without the opportunities to refuel. Maritime assets have very long lifetimes — typically 25 years — so getting to net zero by 2050 will require substantial investments in near-zero fuels and propulsion technologies deployed as soon as 2030.

The IMO Rules

Beginning in January, the new IMO rules will require individual ships to measure and report a carbon intensity index in the form of an annual efficiency ratio (AER). The AER is a function of a ship’s deadweight tonnage (DWT) — how much weight it can carry in cargo, fuel, crew, fresh water, passengers, supplies, etc. — plus how much and what type of fuel it consumed and how far it traveled in the previous year. This data has been part of an IMO mandatory annual submission since 2019 for ships over 5,000 DWT.

The AER is used to grade the ship A, B, C, D, or E. Vessels that receive a grade of A, B, or C will be deemed compliant that year. Vessels graded D have a three-year grace period during which the owner will have to somehow get back into compliance, and those graded E will have one year to do so. Importantly, the grading criteria will become tougher every year: The IMO is mandating a 2% annual improvement in AER from 2023 through 2030. Thus, a ship may start with a B grade in 2023, but if no changes are made after as few as six years, it could automatically become a D. If the owner cannot comply, the vessel will have to be removed from service and likely scrapped.

The impact on container shipping, the backbone of the global merchandise trade, will be substantial. A significant number of ships will not be compliant. Most of these are older, smaller ships with less than 8,000 TEU capacity (TEU stands for 20-foot equivalent unit and is a standard container size), but the implications are serious.

Options for Achieving a Better Grade
Shipping companies have three options to improve a ship’s grade:

Switch to fuels that generate less CO2.

The fuel choice is challenging because not many fuels have the necessary energy density. Maersk, the second-largest container line by capacity, is focusing on biomethanol and has ordered 12 16,000 TEU methanol-powered ships. It has also signed agreements with several companies to produce methanol from renewable energy. CMA CGM, the third-largest container line, has made a big bet on liquified natural gas (LNG) as an interim transition fuel and plans ultimately go to some form of hydrogen. It has already put 12 LNG-powered vessels into service and will have 44 operating by 2024. Mitsui OSK Lines plans to launch 90 LNG-powered ships by 2030, and Ocean Network Express (ONE) recently ordered 10 13,700 TEU ships that could run on either ammonia or methanol. All these companies will be looking to bio-based marine fuel oil as well.

For all these strategies, a key dependency is how fast suppliers can scale up production of the massive quantities of fuel that will be needed. Originally, it was thought that LNG would have a significant advantage over the near term because it is already available in many geographies, and it is easier to handle than methanol and ammonia. But the skyrocketing prices of LNG and questions about Russian supplies due to the Ukraine war could significantly alter that equation. New LNG-powered ships will be comfortably below IMO targets for the first decade of their lifetime, but beyond that other measures will likely have to be taken such as blending with bio-based LNG or transitioning to some form of hydrogen fuel.

Change how a ship is operated.

This option is the least expensive way to keep many existing ships in compliance. Because the carbon-intensity measure is tied to how much weight is moved per unit of distance, larger vessels sailing long routes with fewer port calls will earn higher grades than smaller ships making lots of port calls. Newer and larger ships, even if not completely full, will score better than smaller ones.

Ships can slow-steam to reduce fuel consumption and hence emissions, but this also reduces the annual cargo hauling capacity of what are expensive assets and crews. Ship operators have been reducing speeds for the last decade, but the 2% annual improvement mandate means this technique will eventually reach its practical limits and older ships will have to be replaced sooner rather than later. Ports and trade lanes that cannot support high volumes may see less frequent service or the elimination of service altogether as it becomes progressively harder to serve them and remain compliant.

Make technical refinements.

These include upgrading engines and emission controls. It might include actions such as retrofitting the engine so that the ship can use alternative fuels, making changes to optimize the flow of water around the hull, or polishing or upgrading propellers.

These changes will also be expensive. Jeremy Nixon, the CEO of Ocean Network Express, a global container shipping company, estimated at a conference in January that the global container shipping industry will have to invest $1.5 trillion over the next 20 to 30 years to meet IMO targets. Even though the industry booked record profits last year, the investments it faces are enormous.

The EU’s Emissions Trading Scheme
Adding to costs, the European Union (EU) is planning to bring shipping into its Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) in 2023. Shipping lines will have to purchase allowances for 50% of emissions for voyages connecting EU and non-EU ports. Maersk has already announced surcharges for its Asia to North Europe and North Europe to U.S. trade lanes, and others will have to follow. While a looming recession is already driving shipping costs lower, they will likely not return to their pre-pandemic levels over the longer term as the added costs ultimately have to be paid for.

The ETS is central to the EU’s climate policy and covers 40% of emissions of firms in energy-intensive sectors. It seeks to reduce GHG emissions by 61% by 2030 compared to 2005 levels. The EU’s proposed Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), slated to become fully operational in 2026, will put a tax on imported products in designated sectors where production-related emissions have not been taxed at the same level by the exporter’s country. This is designed to prevent the circumvention of the EU’s GHG-reduction efforts by imports from countries with less ambitious climate policies. It will also be a critical part of phasing out of free allowances for EU producers.

While imports into Europe of products covered by the CBAM will likely decrease, exports will be impacted as well. EU-made goods that use EU ETS products as inputs will become more expensive, whether they are imported or produced in Europe. As other countries implement carbon pricing, they will need to set up similar mechanisms.

The Implications for Companies

For managers planning their supply chains, there are several important things to pay attention to:

The cost of decarbonization in ocean shipping is going to change the calculus of where goods are sourced. Although spot market rates have declined recently, it is probably unrealistic to think that costs will return to their pre-pandemic level. While carriers plan to add a substantial amount of new capacity in the next few years, it’s tricky to forecast shipping rates because the retirement of old capacity that will have trouble meeting IMO rules will likely balance out the additions. Much will depend on whether U.S. import demand drops and carriers choose to idle ships. Other segments like bulk carriers and vessels for transporting motor vehicles may face significant challenges because there isn’t as strong an order book for new more efficient ships to replace older ones that will need to be taken out of service. High-volume trade lanes where container lines can deploy newer, larger, and more efficient assets will fare better, but all in all it may make less sense to produce many goods far away from where they are consumed even if the production costs are lower.

Lower-volume trade lanes will likely see less-frequent and higher-cost services. This was foreshadowed during the height of the supply chain crisis in 2021, when Japan lost some direct eastbound services to North America as container lines tried to juggle capacity shortages and delays by dropping port calls from their schedule rotations. (It was a more efficient way to operate the vessels.) The IMO rules will favor efficiency: larger ships, fewer port calls, and less-frequent service with maximum capacity utilization per ship.

Companies that export to Europe or have European suppliers should plan for the higher costs that CBAM, ETS, and similar actions by other countries will produce. Managers should anticipate that other countries outside the EU will take similar actions. For example, U.S. managers should pay attention to Canada, which has set a large increase in carbon pricing for 2030. There may be pressure for similar border adjustment measures in heavy-GHG-emitting industries such as steel.

Policies and regulations to help mitigate climate change promise to have a major impact on how supply chains are designed. Increased costs as well as the practicalities of shipping logistics are on a course for change. They will alter the way supply chains are designed and how shipping will work. Now is the time to start planning for this new era.


https://hbr.org/2022/10/climate-regulations-are-about-to-disrupt-global-shipping


....


3 letter organization I have never heard of before: the IMO - International Maritime Organization. Are they associated with the IMF (international monetary fund) and similar organizations? It seems that their jurisdiction mainly covers european regions. Being an american who pays not much attention to current events in europe. I can only guess at whether proposals for regulation as in the above are popular or even supported by europeans.

Judging by posts on this forum, it seems that many europeans hold negative views of renewable energy. The transition to solar and wind was too abrupt. There was not enough forethought or future planning on the part of EU leaders to allow for a seamless and stable transition to alternate forms of energy.

The organization behind these newly introduced regulation having 3 letters and bearing a resemblance to the IMF while invoking Klaus Schwab connotations may not help with their public image.

But despite my expectations of there being few who would support measures which would likely raise prices and cause shortages of essential necessities in supply chains. I would guess there will still be a large number of people who will support these measures. Whether because they love the environment and consider it an extremely high priority. Or due to other reasons. That has been the trend I have observed so far.
488  Economy / Economics / The US housing shortage is 'awful' with no apparent end in sight on: November 17, 2022, 11:20:51 PM
Quote

  • Experts say the decades-long U.S. housing shortage is only going to get worse in the next year.
  • Top economist for homebuilders says due to rising mortgage rates, the 2023 market will be "weak."
  • Policy expert: "We're seeing housing underproduction in every corner of the U.S."

How dire is the decades long housing shortage in the United States?

Awful according to recent data, experts say. And there's apparently no improvement for the foreseeable future thanks to continued demand for homes despite rising mortgage interest rates and high home prices.

"There doesn't appear to be any end in sight," Nadia Evangelou, a senior economist and director of forecasting for the National Association of Realtors told USA TODAY.

Depending on who you ask, experts believe there is a nationwide housing shortage of between 2 million to nearly 6 million newly built homes.

Evangelou said the association estimates there's a shortage of 5.5. million homes. The organization uses its housing shortage tracker to compare the supply and demand by the number of single-family housing permits issued for every two new jobs in 175 U.S. markets.

It's finding: Cities both big and small are dealing with severe underbuilding.

Where are the biggest housing shortages?

The more severe underbuilding is happening in major cities, according to experts.

For example, Los Angeles is among the most underproduced housing market in the U.S. with a shortfall of nearly 400,000 homes or about 8.4%, Mike Kingsella, CEO of Up for Growth, a Washington, D.C.-based housing policy research nonprofit, told USA TODAY. In July, Up for Growth released a study tracking more than 800 U.S. housing markets across the country from 2012 to 2019.

And similar to Up for Growth, the National Association of Realtors also cites LA as among the big cities with severe housing shortages. The LA metro area had 247,400 new jobs compared to 11,206 single-family permits, the Evangelou said.

Still, LA is not the more severely underbuilt.  

That distinction belongs to the New York City-Newark and Jersey City, New Jersey metro area. There were nearly 497,000 new jobs compared to 13,229 single-family permits issued in that metro area during that period, Evangelou said.

Other areas that have high housing shortages include the San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, California area, the Boston-Cambridge-Nashua, Massachusetts area, and the cities of Springfield and Rockford, Illinois.

Will the housing shortage spread?

Once confined to the coasts and the Southwest, the lack of enough housing production to meet demand now affects nearly every state and several major metro areas in America, Kingsella said.

"We're seeing housing underproduction in every corner of the U.S., said Kingsella, whose nonprofit estimates there's a 3.8 million housing shortfall. "And it's certainly not going to get any better as we see interest rates climb while trying to tamp down inflation. This also means we are perversely increasing housing costs."

Can zoning fix the housing shortage?  

Cities with single-family housing shortages typically share similar traits, Evangelou said including land-use restrictions that affect building homes.

Kingsella said many cities and states need to change or update zoning laws to allow for more housing. Kingsella said states including California, Oregon and Maine and cities like Austin, Texas, passed laws to end single-family zoning and now allow the construction of more than one home per parcel of land.

Where is the housing market heading?

Despite a slightly rising inventory due primarily to price-weary prospective buyers, supply is expected to remain short for some time to come, said Robert Dietz, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders.

In a statement last week after the NAHB homebuilders group said homeowner confidence is down for a tenth straight month, Dietz said single-family homebuilding will see a steep decline next year, "as higher interest rates and ongoing elevated construction costs continue to price out a large number of prospective buyers."

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate on Monday was 7.29%, according to Mortgage News Daily, marking the highest 30-year rate in 20 years.

"Nobody saw this coming. We thought maybe a max of 5%, but not a 7% interest rate," said Evangelou, adding that the National Association of Realtors had to readjust its forecast several times this year.  

Also, the median sales price for homes in the U.S. was $384,800 in September, an 8.4% spike from the $355,100 price tag in September 2021 as prices climbed in all regions, the association reported.

Assuming a 10% down payment, the monthly mortgage is $1,000 higher than a year ago, Evangelou said.

Last month, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the housing market might need "a correction" to make homes more affordable.

Dietz predicts the Federal Reserve will ease up on interest rates no later than 2024 which will lead to a rebound in the housing industry.

"The market for 2023 will be weak until then," Dietz said. "Home prices will remain high and supply will be low."


https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2022/10/26/housing-market-worsens-mortgage-interest-rates/10588515002/


....


Many celebrities like Joe Rogan have acknowledged the existence of a homeless encampment in california with an estimated 60,000 people.

PowerfulJRE
Taken from JRE #1798 w/Michael Shellenberger:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TsTDA2DT72k

Many of the homeless in that area have stable full time jobs and are working as much as they can. Yet they still cannot afford rent for listings in their region. So it seems that the united states has something resembling a housing crisis on its hands, which has worsened considerably in recent times.

While a negative correction of home and real estate prices in the country might be bad for large institutional investors who will lose net worth. It would simultaneously be beneficial for lower income brackets to make housing more affordable.

While the above piece predicts a weak housing market due to high interest rates on home loans. I would only like to suggest that this could be a positive, rather than a hard negative. As it could lead to a massive reduction in home prices. A so called "massive collapse in housing prices" which many have predicted.

Lack of construction in areas like LA or las vegas is completely understandable given that lake mead is drying up. Which could leave the entire region without a supply of water. But really I think one of the main driving forces behind real estate demand is high paying jobs. Most construction firms cater to the high income bracket demographic. Rather than the low income demographic. Which only leaves development for high priced real estate in a market where low priced housing is scarce.
489  Economy / Economics / Re: There is Hope at the End of the Tunnel. Don't Give Up. on: November 17, 2022, 11:16:52 PM
Years ago, there was a case where coinbase employees bought an altcoin (if I remember correctly) before it was officially adopted by coinbase. There were accusations of insider trading of which coinbase later received an innocent verdict. There was a noticeable bump in the price of the altcoin, before the official adoption. Which many recognized and acknowledged.

Some are saying that bitcoin declined before the FTX case made headlines. Which indicates FTX is not responsible. But having seen the coinbase insider trading case, is it fair to say there could be similarities between the two. Could inside traders have received inside knowledge of FTX which led them to dump their bitcoin before headlines were announced.

Its hard for me to care about FTX as there have been many worse headlines in finance over the past 15 years, which people seemed not to care about. It feels as if most did not pay attention to current events or the news until the 2020 pandemic hit. Then everyone began scrambling to become more literate in finance and politics to fill in the gaps in their knowledge.
490  Economy / Economics / Wells Fargo mortgage staff brace for layoffs as U.S. loan volumes collapse on: November 17, 2022, 10:56:30 PM
Quote

  • Mortgage volumes at Wells Fargo slowed further in recent weeks, leaving some workers idle and sparking concerns that the lender will need to cut more employees as the U.S. housing slump deepens.
  • The bank had about 18,000 loans in its retail origination pipeline in the early weeks of the fourth quarter, according to people with knowledge of the company’s figures. That is down as much as 90% from a year earlier, when the Covid pandemic-fueled housing boom was in full swing, said the people.
  • Employees are on edge after the bank began cutting workers in April and internal projections point to more departures.

Mortgage volumes at Wells Fargo slowed further in recent weeks, leaving some workers idle and sparking concerns the lender will need to cut more employees as the U.S. housing slump deepens.

The bank had about 18,000 loans in its retail origination pipeline in the early weeks of the fourth quarter, according to people with knowledge of the company’s figures. That is down as much as 90% from a year earlier, when the Covid pandemic-fueled housing boom was in full swing, said the people, who declined to be identified speaking about internal matters.

The U.S. housing market has been on a roller coaster in recent years, taking off in 2020 thanks to easy-money policies and the adoption of remote work, and slowing down this year as the Federal Reserve boosted rates. Homebuyers have been squeezed and the pace of refinancing has plummeted as borrowing costs surged to more than 7% for a 30-year loan from about 3% a year earlier. And rates may climb further as the Fed is expected to boost its benchmark rate again Wednesday.

The situation has pressured the home loan industry, particularly firms like Rocket Mortgage that thrived on loan refinancings, and is expected to lead to consolidation among newer nonbank players that rushed to serve customers after most U.S. banks receded from the market.

Among the six biggest U.S. banks, Wells Fargo has historically been the most reliant on mortgages. But that has begun to change under CEO Charlie Scharf, who has said that the bank is looking to shrink the business and focus primarily on serving existing customers.

Early warning

In October, the bank warned investors that the housing market could slow further after saying that mortgage originations fell nearly 60% in the third quarter.

“We expect it to remain challenging in the near term,” CFO Mike Santomassimo told analysts Oct. 14. “It’s possible that we have a further decline in mortgage banking revenue in the Q4 when originations are seasonally slower.”

Employees are on edge after the bank began cutting workers in April and internal projections point to more departures. Local news outlets have reported when Wells Fargo offices have been required to disclose impending job cuts in a municipality.

The ranks of mortgage loan officers, who mainly earn commissions from closing deals, is expected to drop to under 2,000 from more than 4,000 at the start of the year, according to one of the people. Many salespeople haven’t closed a single loan in recent weeks, this person said.

Another person said that most of the exits have been voluntary as bankers sought other opportunities, making departures and staffing levels hard to predict.

“The changes we’ve recently made are the result of the broader rate environment and consistent with the response of other lenders in the industry,” a Wells Fargo spokesman said in a statement. “We regularly review and adjust staffing levels to align with market conditions and the needs of our businesses.”

The bank said last month that its total workforce shrank by about 14,000 people in the third quarter, a 6% decline to 239,209 employees.

Wells Fargo shares are down about 2% since the start of the year.


https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/02/wells-fargo-mortgage-staff-brace-for-layoffs-as-us-loan-volumes-collapse.html


....


Also related:

Quote
Warren Buffett Exits Wells Fargo And Buys Stake In Its Rival Bank

Berkshire Hathaway Inc (NYSE: BRK-B) bought $3 billion worth of shares in Citigroup Inc (NYSE: C) in Q1, giving the group a stake of about 2.8%, according to filings with regulators.

The investment came as Berkshire sold the remainder of its position in Wells Fargo & Co (NYSE: WFC), a rival bank that had been a staple in Buffett’s portfolio for more than three decades, Financial Times reported.

At the start of 2022, Warren Buffett, Berkshire’s chief executive, plowed $51.1 billion into the market as global stocks sagged due to Federal Reserve, supply chain disruptions, strong inflation, and the war in Ukraine.

Berkshire ended 2021 with a near-record $146.7 billion cash pile. Citigroup has slid more than 21% this year.

Citi also warned of losses of up to $3 billion tied to Russia.

Related: Citigroup In Talks With Potential Buyers For Russia Retail Ops: Bloomberg.

Berkshire bought $7.7 billion worth of shares in oil and gas company Occidental Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: OXY) and boosted its stake in Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX)

Price Action: C shares traded higher by 5.35% at $50 premarket on the last check Tuesday.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffett-exits-wells-fargo-112402820.html


It looks as if a big housing price correction could be on the way. If loan and mortgage numbers are anything to go by. For volumes to decline that significantly implies residents are having difficulty affording rent and mortgage payments.

Stocks being what they are, even Warren Buffett appears to be having difficulty finding places to stash his considerable wealth. Buffett sold his holdings in Wells Fargo to buy Citigroup bank instead. But citibank is warning of losses tied to russia and is known for losing value in 2022.

Wouldn't it be ironic if a scenario arises where Warren Buffett would have achieved better ROI on his portfolio had he invested in crypto instead? Considering the high volatility of the current market. And the unpredictable nature of supply chain disruptions and the ukraine crisis having disproportionately negative effects on business. It certainly is not a farfetched scenario that Buffett might actually lose wealth in 2022. Assuming he hasn't already. I think most long term stock players are behind in this bear market to recession. Will we live to see crypto outperform stocks?
491  Other / Politics & Society / Re: What is the world turning into?? on: November 17, 2022, 09:45:31 PM
Prior to 2020 liberals said there was no legitimate reason for americans to own guns.

Then the 2020 pandemic came and liberals began buying guns in record numbers to defend themselves.

Whatever is happening appears to be reminding people of reasons behind measures like the 2nd amendment (right to bear arms) in the USA.

Its like a refresher course on a global scale.

It is possible that we don't really appreciate things like freedom of speech. Until someone tries to take it away from us or censor certain views. Then we see the real world application, the motive behind our ancestors once deeming it important.

Many of these lessons are things that are usually covered by schools. But schools and teachers have neglected many of these perspectives, which people are learning now through current events and history.
492  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Despair is a sign of defeat on: November 17, 2022, 09:32:42 PM
Russia has lost every war since the time of Napoleon, except for World War II, in which it defeated Germany with the help of the United States and Great Britain.


It is possible russia deserves all of the credit for defeating nazi germany.

Russian WWII casualties were around 5 million.

While casualties of the USA in WWII were around 500,000.

Which seems to indicate russia bore the brunt of the fighting.

Also while it may not be a popular topic, there was a war between dagestan and russia very recently.
493  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Do you have anyone you trust? on: November 17, 2022, 08:52:08 PM


1. Mother encouraged his elder son to kill her younger son for money rituals : A suspected internet fraudster confessed to security operatives that it was his mother that encouraged him to kill his younger brother for rituals that would make his fraud business prosper. He poisoned his brother and with the help of his mother they harvested the needed body parts that would be sent to the witch doctor for the rituals. He was arrested by security operatives during a stop-and-search operation. 

2. Woman killed and beheaded friend for money : A devout Christian woman killed her friend and decapitated her body because she planned to forge her dead friends will. After killing her, she arranged a will document that leaves 95% of the deceased wealth to the killer. The killer wanted to repair her house and she knew that her friend had the money because they had a close relationship.

3. Man pushes son off a cliff to claim insurance : A man was executed by the government because he staged an accident in a mine to enable him to receive compensation from the company. He murdered his son and planned to use the money to repay his debt and impress an extravagant woman he met online who always asked for money.

4. Wife accused of killing her husband for insurance money : The accused hired an assassin to kill her husband because she wanted to claim insurance money. After the killing, the killer and the woman rearranged the crime scene to look like a robbery and the woman instructed the killer to remove the hard drive of the house CCTV, but she didn't know that the camera had a memory card as backup. The neighbors of the family testified that the couple had three daughters and it was a peaceful and loving home.

5. Husband kills wife for money: A man shot his wife, locked the door, went to his office and later called the police informing them that his wife is in danger. He did this because he knew that his wife registered him as the nominee of her life insurance policy. He wanted people to believe that his wife was killed by thieves so that he can claim the life insurance benefit.




If someone as famous and wealthy as Britney Spears suffered the way she did.

Of course, we can expect similar things are occurring far more outside the spotlight where people don't see or expect it.

Unfortunately and sadly this type of thing has been common for many years. If people thought hard about it they should be able to identify many similar cases.

Britney Spears is probably the most obvious but there are countless others.
494  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Poland draws a line in the sand with the EU: we are owed the funds on: November 17, 2022, 08:49:14 PM
The unity of EU is very important for the stability and strength of European nations. The EU has been a formidable force in the world because of its common goals. The breakup of the EU might give some perceived unfriendly nation the green light to carryout their expansionist agenda. But the breakup of the EU might be a good news to the crypto space because each nation would have to make their specific policies about cryptocurrencies instead of relying and abiding on laws made by the EU administrative setup. Some countries might decide to be friendly with the crypto industry because they might not be restricted by EU laws.

Just as Brexit destabilized Britain for some time, most European nations might have to endure some forms of economic drawbacks because their economies were once integrated. Less productive or financially buoyant European countries might suffer from recession because most of them depends on support from richer nations in the Bloc.   



A break up would definitely be good for crypto.

Every poor european nation which once relied upon funding from wealthy EU nations, could feel pressure to offer crypto support as a means to fill budget deficits.

I think many EU member states already legalize and tax gambling and prostitution. There aren't many obvious untapped sources of revenue for them to source in the event of free EU money coming to an end.
495  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Europe warming twice as fast as rest of the world, new report reveals on: November 17, 2022, 08:32:24 PM
this water cycle disturbance IS human caused.



Agreed.

Can think of 3 causes for this.

1.  Plants and trees suck water out of the ground and evaporate it from their leaves in a process known as transpiration. Deforestation and human encroachment upon rainforests contribute heavily to decreased plant life, decreased water evaporation and decreased rainfall.

2.  Human consumption of water. Lakes and rivers are drying up on elevated consumption by people. Fewer bodies of water also translate to decreased evaporation. Resulting in decreased rainfall.

3.  Air pollution. Dust, dirt and debris in the atmosphere caused decreased rainfall through a mechanism which I'm not 100% certain on. But it is something I have seen referenced in science articles published on the topic.

496  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Is suicide the best option? on: November 17, 2022, 08:22:21 PM
Japan has the best option, with its declining birth rate and population.
497  Economy / Economics / China Is Quietly Rewriting Rules That Run the World on: November 16, 2022, 11:54:12 PM
Quote
“Economic nationalism is about to disappear. And technical nationalism has disappeared!”

So declared Olle Sturen in 1969. At the time, he headed the International Organization for Standardization (ISO), an institution that created the intermodal freight container (known as the twenty-foot equivalent unit), those ubiquitous metal boxes that utterly transformed global trade. A Swede who championed China’s entry into his Geneva-based organization in the 1970s, Sturen had an optimistic view of how the ISO’s work would bring the world together. It’s unlikely he would have envisioned how those standards would instead become a geo-strategic battleground between China and the West.

Standards are vital, as electrical engineers realized in the late 1800s. They found that equipment and devices needed to be made to specific, interoperable standards in order to avoid disaster. Today, there are scores of different international bodies that set industry standards. Lately, they’ve largely been driven by the private sector and many are somewhat informal. How informal? One internet-related body gauges consensus by humming rather than voting.

But standards-setting remains an arena where the act of writing the rules can be an opportunity to quietly confer tremendous power, and profit, on the author. Enter China.

Beijing conceives of standard-setting as a tool for moving its manufacturing up the global value chain, and building its influence abroad. This was laid out in a leadership document dubbed China Standards 2035, released late last year.

On the domestic front, “the idea is to set technical standards high, essentially forcing manufacturers to upgrade their processes whether they want to or not,” Matt Sheehan, Marjory Blumenthal and Michael Nelson of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace wrote. (China’s scientific research in the Arctic also plays a role in encouraging advanced industrial development.)

China’s plans also call for boosting its efforts internationally. One part of that is via the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). If a member nation—Ethiopia or Indonesia, say—approves a rail project under the BRI, it will hardly be able to buy replacement signaling gear from a European provider that uses a different standard.

Beijing is “very well aware of the technological dependencies it can create if it succeeds in spreading and rolling out Chinese technical standards through BRI projects,” Tim Rühlig, Research Fellow in the Technology and Global Affairs Program at the German Council on Foreign Relations, said in a recent Pekingology podcast.

It’s possible that in time China will seek through BRI to institutionalize a “parallel world of technical standards” Rühlig said.

Meantime, the simple publication of the 2035 plan will serve as a powerful impetus throughout China’s government and private sector to contribute to the new national goal, the Carnegie authors wrote:

Quote
“This type of activity will have major and uncertain spillover effects beyond China. It could position Beijing to wield greater influence on standards-setting across the board, including a vast range of products and processes—anything that might be standardized.”

Another consideration is that standards can reflect choices on principles and even ethics. Back in 2006, the ISO rejected a Chinese Wi-Fi encryption standard amid concerns there were no guarantees that WAPI, as it was known, didn’t allow backdoor access to encrypted material.

China hasn’t only radically expanded its presence in the global technology sector since then, but is stepping up engagement with standards-setting bodies just as private-sector led efforts by Western nations drops off.

“American companies and European companies are not supporting as many of their people to go be part of the standards process as they used to,” said JoAnne Yates, an MIT Sloan School of Management professor who co-wrote a book on the modern history of standards-setting, in a China Talk podcast.

Having the likes of Washington, Brussels and Tokyo step heavily back into the breach, however, may pose another challenge.

The private-sector driven model arguably allowed innovation and the rapid growth of markets. A heavily politicized mechanism for setting standards could inhibit the development of new technologies. Stepping in early to impose a certain standard could lock in the use of less-efficient methods or products, or ones that would otherwise have become quickly outdated.

Jude Blanchette, Freeman Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, cautions that over-emphasizing the geopolitical security aspect of the current standards landscape has “profound costs.”

Nevertheless, the evolution of different sets of standards seems increasingly unavoidable.

“It’s hard to imagine now that, for the next generation of mobile devices—6G—that it will be as smooth” to establish the same type of industry standardization as for past generations, said Zhikai Chen, head of Asian equities at BNP Paribas Asset Management. “This is just one example. We probably will see others emerge over the next five to 10 years.”

What could materialize is different spheres of influence, where one set of standards is used for all associated devices in one group of nations, and another set for a separate group.

From an investment standpoint, that means companies would have to incur extra costs to manufacture to, say, China-oriented standards and Western-oriented ones.

“You’ll have to have two different products, catering to potentially different spheres of influence. And you can imagine that that’s probably not good for economies-of-scale or production,” Chen said.

Or, a company could opt to concentrate on just one bloc of nations, abandoning the revenue stream tied to servicing another. Either way, it would seem that Suren’s utopian vision from half a century ago will remain out of reach for many decades to come.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2022-11-05/china-rewrites-the-rules-that-run-the-world-new-economy-saturday


....


This is similar to the european union recently mandating USB-C for all smartphones.

China as a central global hub of manufacturing places it in a position to mandate standards of its own in manufacturing sectors. Not only for products it exports but also for development projects it undertakes abroad in foreign countries.

To add another layer to the arrangement, china appears to be borrowing from nintendo's business strategy. Where nintendo refused to adopt CDs and DVDs for many years, opting to use cartridges with the N64 and their own proprietary disc formats afterward. The motive behind nintendo's use of 2nd tier technology was motivated by it earning additional profits through charging developers for licensing fees for using its own in house technology.

It appears that china may follow a similar trend by charging licensing fees for using the technology standards it establishes. Whether or not these trends may be significant or relevant in the future remains to be seen. But it is certain that china is attempting to monetize other untapped revenue streams, which will hopefully help it to stabilize its economy.
498  Economy / Economics / Re: Fed and central Banks need to do something on: November 16, 2022, 11:42:55 PM
Becouse we have so many people in Western countries who don't produce anything real but all of them Are use to with quite Luxury life.
If Fed and central Banks don't reacue then all those people who Are use to with good life will struggle and that's not good.

RIGHT NOW my bank don't Even let me to make my credit card limit higher..wtf like something got to be done we are not use to with poor life and printers need to be turned on asap and need to find ways to reduce inflation still Even the money printers Are on.


Exactly right.

We no longer own the means of production, which will result in a huge deficit if dependence upon cheap foreign labor comes to an end. Which reminds me that I should be doing a lot more to try to be self sufficient in the event of an emergency. While there is no accurate means of forecasting what future supply chain disruptions might manifest. There is one surefire method of addressing the issue, which is to do everything possible to increase local production. (Or perhaps to live in a rural area with abundant hunting, fishing and foraging that is also independent for water and energy)

Future bank runs and restrictions on credit have been announced in various regions as potential prospects for the future. No one wants to admit the worst case scenario might materialize. And hopefully it will not. But perhaps it is always better to be prepared than unprepared.
499  Other / Politics & Society / Poland draws a line in the sand with the EU: we are owed the funds on: November 16, 2022, 11:02:49 PM
Quote
EU politicians and officials have been turning the financial screws on Poland. Has the country finally had enough?

The Polish government says it will make no further concessions to the European Union in order to unlock tens of billions in EU funding, arguing that Poland has fulfilled all its obligations and Brussels owes them the money.

“Poland fulfilled all conditions set by the European Commission regarding the payment of the Recovery Funds it is due,” Polish President Andrzej Duda said. He added that “he does not intend to answer any comments from Brussels on the matter.”

Brussels, for its part, has threatened Poland with catastrophic funding cuts totaling up to €110 billion; this would hobble the Polish economy, which has suffered due to the global economic downturn, inflation, and the refugee crisis from Ukraine.

In an interview for the conservative Sieci, Duda admitted that he does not believe that trying to fulfill the expectations of “the other side” could bring any results. “I believe that a lot of good will was showcased from the Polish side,” he stated.

“And we know very well that there is a group from Poland there that has a policy of contradicting the basic interests of the Polish state and is content when Poland is being harmed by Brussels,” said Poland’s president. He also mentioned the liberal-left representatives who “have seats in the European Commission and want to change the ruling party in Poland at all costs.”

According to the latest statements of the Polish authorities, Poland has still not sent a request for a payment of the Recovery Funds to Brussels. Meanwhile, information has appeared in the public space that the Commission confirmed that Warsaw has fulfilled 15 out of 20 milestones necessary for the payments of the first tranche of funds.

The National Recovery Fund for Poland involves €24 billion in grants and €11.5 billion in loans, but it is just one type of fund that Poland has yet to receive from Brussels. In June, the European Commission finally accepted the Polish plan, however, it made the payment of the funds dependent on the fulfillment of the so-called milestones. In the case of Poland, those milestones concern mostly the judicial system. Brussels does not recognize that Poland fulfilled its obligations, so the payment of the National Recovery Fund remains frozen.


https://rmx.news/poland/poland-draws-a-line-in-the-sand-with-the-eu-we-fulfilled-the-requirements-and-we-are-owed-the-funds-says-polish-president/


....


I had no idea that there was conflict between Poland and the EU amounting to €110 billion in funding owed to Poland by the EU. Are europeans aware of this?

Usually american news reports on negative news trends in europe and abroad to make us feel better about our own problems. That would appear to be the most clickbait trend that has become normalized. While european news reports on negative trends in the united states to make europeans feel better about their own circumstances.

Not being someone who normally keeps track of current events in europe, is there a chance of EU breakup. They've done a good job maintaining the integrity of the EU. Many expected it would breakup when greece's debt issues arose. But it has managed to maintain stability in spite of setbacks.

Can a european who keeps track of current events explain what this could mean for crypto and the global economy, if anything.
500  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin is like a venereal disease-- Charlie Munger on: November 15, 2022, 11:43:03 PM
I can't but wonder if Charlie Munger might be more persuasive if his arguments amounted to more than straw man attacks on bitcoin.

People across the internet always say that straw man attacks are irrational and illogical as well as a poor debate tactic. Yet many demographics appear to have no recourse other than to use straw man attacks in an attempt to prove all of their points. It would appear to be counter intuitive and not the best strategy. Yet we have many billionaires and CEOs using it. As if they could not formulate a better strategy or more convincing argument for attempting to achieve their apparent goals.

I wonder about this as from my perspective, it seems to me that I put more effort into coming up with viable strategies to feed my cat. Than the strategies Charlie Munger uses in his efforts to attack bitcoin.

If someone was a CEO or billionaire I would expect more intelligent and persuasive arguments.

Its an interesting world we're living in, to say the least.
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