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1341  Economy / Economics / Re: 2022 Savings and investment plan on: January 05, 2022, 03:12:56 PM
The number one thing is to know how much capital I have and how long can I invest in it and what are the percentage profits turnovers, after that, I will look for the right investment to invest in and how much I should invest in it. Then I will try to diversify my investment. I will take less risk this year but make my finances more stable with some skills development.


I think its easier if you can find investment topics that align with your values and interests. That way you don't have to force yourself to follow things that are uninteresting, boring or repulsive.

It also helps to be curious about how things play out in the real world. Enough to want to learn and experiment with basic fundamentals. Relying solely on academic or textbook knowledge isn't a reliable approach imo as far as investments go.

It also helps to remember your investments don't have to be stocks, bonds, precious metals or even crypto. The only requirement is it being something that can make money. Which is a much wider category of things than most realize. There are people who buy clearance items from stores and resell them on ebay or other auction websites who turn that simple market mechanic into a multi million dollar business. While disposable income might be a limiting factor. Imagination doesn't necessarily have to do the same.

There are podcasts and youtube channels on side hustles which can also be a good place to find investment ideas and advice. Have you ever seen ATM machines or soda vending machines at gas stations or stores? There are people on side hustle podcasts who are willing to talk about their experiences running those types of side businesses. There is a lot of information out there which can be good.

1342  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Sport's betting experience on: January 05, 2022, 01:39:40 PM
I am following English premier League and Australia A league. 80-85% matches 1st half Happen corner over 3.5 that's odds 1.32-1.40 . So anyone wants to safe betting then you can bet there. Not all matches. Select for a team like Manchester United. If Manchester United and it's partner fail to cover 3.5 corner in 1st half in a match then the next match stake high between Manchester United Vs opponent team. That's the simple tricks. This tips dose not work for 100%, so bet your own risk.



I'm not a fan of european football. I don't follow the sport or watch games.

Here are some ideas for accurately predicting points over / unders based on observations of other sports.

1.  Some teams start quickly and score more points in the 1st half than the 2nd half. Other teams are the opposite, slow starters. Some teams have good cardio and endurance, while others are explosive but lack the endurance to play well in the 2nd half. Observations can be drawn based on team performance, which can increase accuracy.

2.  In the mid to late season, teams that are in the running for playoffs will usually be more competitive and score more points than teams that are out of contention for playoffs. Factors such as these can help to generalize how motivated teams are to show up, score points and win games.

3.  Team rivalries. There are rivalries which lead to some teams trying much harder to win the game, than they would if they played a team they didn't care about. Team rivalries are sometimes a good environment for calling points over.

Long story short, there are many indicators and observations which can be drawn from sports which remain somewhat consistent over time.

Part of being a successful gambler is observing games and finding patterns and a formula for making predictions that have good accuracy. IMO anyway.
1343  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Don't bet more than you can afford to lose. on: January 05, 2022, 01:32:45 PM
Inexperienced beginning gamblers should not bet more than $1 to $5.

Over weeks or months, if they have demonstrated then can consistently turn profits. Then they might think about upping the bet size.

The emphasis should be on consistency and learning a sport well enough to predict likely outcomes. Learning and accurate predictions are the goal. Not making money.

Approaching gambling as a money making method trends towards having a negative effect on decision making. It impairs judgement the way alcohol can impair driving.
1344  Economy / Economics / Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64 on: January 03, 2022, 04:39:39 PM
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(The Center Square) – The head of Indianapolis-based insurance company OneAmerica said the death rate is up a stunning 40% from pre-pandemic levels among working-age people.

“We are seeing, right now, the highest death rates we have seen in the history of this business – not just at OneAmerica,” the company’s CEO Scott Davison said during an online news conference this week. “The data is consistent across every player in that business.”

OneAmerica is a $100 billion insurance company that has had its headquarters in Indianapolis since 1877. The company has approximately 2,400 employees and sells life insurance, including group life insurance to employers in the state.

Davison said the increase in deaths represents “huge, huge numbers,” and that’s it’s not elderly people who are dying, but “primarily working-age people 18 to 64” who are the employees of companies that have group life insurance plans through OneAmerica.

“And what we saw just in third quarter, we’re seeing it continue into fourth quarter, is that death rates are up 40% over what they were pre-pandemic,” he said.

“Just to give you an idea of how bad that is, a three-sigma or a one-in-200-year catastrophe would be 10% increase over pre-pandemic,” he said. “So 40% is just unheard of.”

Davison was one of several business leaders who spoke during the virtual news conference on Dec. 30 that was organized by the Indiana Chamber of Commerce.

Most of the claims for deaths being filed are not classified as COVID-19 deaths, Davison said.

“What the data is showing to us is that the deaths that are being reported as COVID deaths greatly understate the actual death losses among working-age people from the pandemic. It may not all be COVID on their death certificate, but deaths are up just huge, huge numbers.”

He said at the same time, the company is seeing an “uptick” in disability claims, saying at first it was short-term disability claims, and now the increase is in long-term disability claims.

“For OneAmerica, we expect the costs of this are going to be well over $100 million, and this is our smallest business. So it’s having a huge impact on that,” he said.

He said the costs will be passed on to employers purchasing group life insurance policies, who will have to pay higher premiums.

The CDC weekly death counts, which reflect the information on death certificates and so have a lag of up to eight weeks or longer, show that for the week ending Nov. 6, there were far fewer deaths from COVID-19 in Indiana compared to a year ago – 195 verses 336 – but more deaths from other causes – 1,350 versus 1,319.

These deaths were for people of all ages, however, while the information referenced by Davison was for working-age people who are employees of businesses with group life insurance policies.

At the same news conference where Davison spoke, Brian Tabor, the president of the Indiana Hospital Association, said that hospitals across the state are being flooded with patients “with many different conditions,” saying “unfortunately, the average Hoosiers’ health has declined during the pandemic.”

In a follow-up call, he said he did not have a breakdown showing why so many people in the state are being hospitalized – for what conditions or ailments. But he said the extraordinarily high death rate quoted by Davison matched what hospitals in the state are seeing.

"What it confirmed for me is it bore out what we're seeing on the front end,..." he said.

The number of hospitalizations in the state is now higher than before the COVID-19 vaccine was introduced a year ago, and in fact is higher than it’s been in the past five years, Dr. Lindsay Weaver, Indiana’s chief medical officer, said at a news conference with Gov. Eric Holcomb on Wednesday.

Just 8.9% of ICU beds are available at hospitals in the state, a low for the year, and lower than at any time during the pandemic. But the majority of ICU beds are not taken up by COVID-19 patients – just 37% are, while 54% of the ICU beds are being occupied by people with other illnesses or conditions.

The state's online dashboard shows that the moving average of daily deaths from COVID-19 is less than half of what it was a year ago. At the pandemic's peak a year ago, 125 people died on one day – on Dec. 29, 2020. In the last three months, the highest number of deaths in one day was 58, on Dec. 13.

https://www.thecentersquare.com/indiana/indiana-life-insurance-ceo-says-deaths-are-up-40-among-people-ages-18-64/article_71473b12-6b1e-11ec-8641-5b2c06725e2c.html


....


The numbers sound mind blowing when he frames them this way:

Quote
“And what we saw just in third quarter, we’re seeing it continue into fourth quarter, is that death rates are up 40% over what they were pre-pandemic,” he said.

“Just to give you an idea of how bad that is, a three-sigma or a one-in-200-year catastrophe would be 10% increase over pre-pandemic,” he said. “So 40% is just unheard of.”

Would have to guess suicide and overdose rates are off the charts at the moment. Essentially, the same thing that happened during the 2008 economic crisis.

If I remember correctly, the doom and gloom of 2008 was part of what motivated Satoshi Nakamoto to design and build bitcoin. I wonder if similar trends might manifest themselves as a result of the fallout. Will people seek ways to prevent these types of crisis from occurring in the future. Or is the majority demoralized enough to not even attempt it. Will it become culturally normalized as we become desensitized to it.

1345  Economy / Economics / Covid crisis leaves Sri Lanka on brink of bankruptcy on: January 03, 2022, 04:09:12 PM
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Half a million people have sunk into poverty since the pandemic struck, with rising costs forcing many to cut back on food

Sri Lanka is facing a deepening financial and humanitarian crisis with fears it could go bankrupt in 2022 as inflation rises to record levels, food prices rocket and its coffers run dry.

The meltdown faced by the government, led by the strongman president Gotabaya Rajapaksa, is in part caused by the immediate impact of the Covid crisis and the loss of tourism is compounded by high government spending and tax cuts eroding state revenues, vast debt repayments to China and foreign exchange reserves at their lowest levels in a decade. Inflation has meanwhile been spurred by the government printing money to pay off domestic loans and foreign bonds.

The World Bank estimates 500,000 people have fallen below the poverty line since the beginning of the pandemic, the equivalent of five years’ progress in fighting poverty.

Inflation hit a record high of 11.1% in November and escalating prices have left those who were previously well off struggling to feed their families, while basic goods are now unaffordable for many. After Rajapaksa declared Sri Lanka to be in an economic emergency, the military was given power to ensure essential items, including rice and sugar, were sold at set government prices – but it has done little to ease people’s woes.

Anurudda Paranagama, a chauffeur in the capital, Colombo, took on a second job to pay for rising food costs and cover the loan on his car but it was not enough. “It is very difficult for me to repay the loan. When I have to pay electricity and water bills and spend on food, there is no money left,” he said, adding that his family now eats two meals a day instead of three.

He described how his village grocer was opening 1kg packets of milk powder and dividing it into packs of 100g because his customers could not afford the whole packet. “We now buy 100g of beans when we used to buy 1kg for the week,” said Paranagama.

The loss of jobs and vital foreign revenue from tourism, which usually contributes more than 10% of GDP, has been substantial, with more than 200,000 people losing their livelihoods in the travel and tourism sectors, according to the World Travel and Tourism Council.

The situation has got so bad that long queues have formed at the passport office as one in four Sri Lankans, mostly the young and educated, say they want to leave the country. For older citizens, it is reminiscent of the early 1970s when import controls and low production at home caused severe shortages of basic commodities and caused long queues for bread, milk and rice.

The former central bank deputy governor WA Wijewardena warned the struggles of ordinary people would exacerbate the financial crisis, which would in turn make life harder for them. “When the economic crisis deepens beyond redemption, it is inevitable that the country will have a financial crisis too,” he said. “Both will reduce food security by lowering production and failing to import due to foreign exchange scarcities. At that point, it will be a humanitarian crisis.”

One of the most pressing problems for Sri Lanka is its huge foreign debt burden, in particular to China. It owes China more than $5bn in debt and last year took an additional $1bn loan from Beijing to help with its acute financial crisis, which is being paid in instalments.

In the next 12 months, in the government and private sector, Sri Lanka will be required to repay an estimated $7.3bn in domestic and foreign loans, including a $500m international sovereign bond repayment in January. However, as of November, available foreign currency reserves were just $1.6bn.

In an usual approach, government minister Ramesh Pathirana said they hoped to settle their past oil debts with Iran by paying them with tea, sending them $5m worth of tea every month in order to save “ much needed currency”.

The opposition MP and economist Harsha de Silva recently told parliament that foreign currency reserves would be -$437m by January next year, while the total foreign debt to service would be $4.8bn from February to October 2022. “The nation will be totally bankrupt,” he said.

Central Bank Governor Ajith Nivard Cabraal made public assurances that Sri Lanka could pay off its debts “seamlessly” but Wijewardena said the country was at substantial risk of defaulting on its repayments, which would have catastrophic economic consequences.

Meanwhile, Rajapaksa’s sudden decision in May to ban all fertiliser and pesticides and force farmers to go organic without warning has brought a formerly prosperous agricultural community to its knees as many farmers, who had become used to using – and often overusing – fertiliser and pesticides, were suddenly left without ways to produce healthy crops or combat weeds and insects. Many fearing a loss decided not to cultivate crops at all, adding to the food shortages in Sri Lanka.

The government made a dramatic U-turn in late October and farmers are now struggling to cover the high costs of imported fertiliser without help.

“The costs of cultivating paddy [wheat] have gone up astronomically … The government has no money for fertiliser subsidies. Many of us farmers are reluctant to invest money because we don’t know if we will make any profit,” said one farmer, Ranjit Hulugalle.

In an attempt to temporarily ease the problems and stave off difficult and most likely unpopular policies, the government has resorted to temporary relief measures, such as credit lines to import foods, medicines and fuel from its neighbouring ally India, as well as currency swaps from India, China and Bangladesh and loans to purchase petroleum from Oman. However, these loans provide only short-term relief and have to be paid back quickly at high interest rates, adding to Sri Lanka’s debt load.

Anushka Shanuka, a personal trainer, was among those who used to have a comfortable life but now is struggling to get by. “We can’t live the way we used to before the pandemic,” he said, saying the prices of vegetables had gone up by more than 50%.

“The government promised to help us but nothing came, so we are just managing the best we can. I don’t know how much longer we can go on like this.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/02/covid-crisis-sri-lanka-bankruptcy-poverty-pandemic-food-prices


....


There are many americans on social media I have seen, who believe its impossible for those who work hard to experience this degree of poverty affecting places like sri lanka. They say youth today are unable to afford basic necessities while working in entry level positions, due to them refusing to "hustle" the way that older generations think they themselves "hustled" when they were young. It is strange how many refuse to acknowledge dangers of negative economic conditions, and how they might someday affect everyone.

Whenever I read things like this, I assume the worst case scenario. These troubles will someday make their way to the shores of the united states. It is best to prepare.

Many who mistakenly believed they could never be poor as long they work hard, will learn their error the hard way. By then it might be too late. But why must reality mimic a bad movie with obvious problems which people refuse to admit exist?
1346  Economy / Economics / LEGO Sets Are Better Investments than Stocks, Bonds or Even Gold on: January 03, 2022, 03:04:23 PM
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Here’s a piece of advice for anyone looking to invest wisely for long-term gains: don’t get rid of those old LEGO sets just yet because they might be worth some serious dough.

They’re a wildly popular diversion for both kids and adults, and now it turns out that LEGO sets—discontinued ones at least—may be seriously valuable collectibles to boot. A study by researchers at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow found that prices for retired LEGO sets grew 11 per cent annually between 1987 and 2015 —a rate that’s faster than bonds, stocks, and even gold. The study also concluded that LEGO returns are not exposed to risk factors and weakly dependent on the stock market. However, the sets are not a way to score fast cash; rather, they’re long-term investments that yield returns within two to three years of the sets being discontinued.

The study’s authors, Victoria Dobrynskaya and Julia Kishilova, reported their findings after looking at the prices of 2,322 LEGO new unopened sets from 1987 to 2015 and using information from primary sales as well as online auction transactions. Their research also unearthed a number of fun facts: to start, prices of small and very large sets grow faster than medium-sized sets. This is most likely because smaller sets have unique parts and figurines while larger sets are rarer and appeal more to adults. Also, sets tied to hit movies, holidays, and well-known buildings see the highest growth in value as do limited-edition sets. Top valued sets include the Taj Mahal, Imperial Star Destroyer, and Millennium Falcon.

Why exactly do retired LEGO sets rise in value so quickly? For one, they’re produced in small quantities with special edition sets being the most limited. They’re also not widely available on the secondary market because owners lose parts or don’t want to part with sets they love. And since they’re beloved by both adults and kids – and have been around for decades – the study assumes the more time has passed since a set first debuted, the more nostalgic and desirable it becomes.

The architectural quality of LEGO sets also plays into why discontinued sets are so valuable, says Christian Bailey, a founding principal at ODA Architecture in New York and an avid Lego fan who still owns sets acquired in the 1970s. “LEGO (sets) are like architecture because they’re building blocks that you use to create a 3-D scene whether it’s from a movie or of a building or set in space,” he says. “They’re endlessly imaginative.”

In a release about the study, Dobrynskaya said, “We are used to thinking that people buy such items as jewelry, antiques or artworks as investment. However, there are other options, such as collectible toys. Tens of thousands of deals are made on the secondary LEGO market. Even taking into account the small prices of most sets, this is a huge market that is not well-known by traditional investors.”

Bailey agrees that most people are unaware of the potential value of LEGO sets. “As a LEGO lover, however, I understand why the sets can become an asset,” he says. “I’m not parting with mine anytime soon.”

https://www.architecturaldigest.com/story/legos-top-investment


....


Legos are manufactured from plastic. Most plastics are derived from oil, if I remember correctly. A side by side chart comparing the value of lego sets versus the price of oil could make for an interesting contrast.

California banned plastic straws in favor of paper straws. Around the world many crude oil derived practices are being deregulated out of existence. Some US states have banned the use of small gasoline powered engines. Gas fueled lawn mowers, trimmers and leaf blowers are being banned in favor of lithium battery powered or plug powered equivalents.

With regulation cracking down on crude oil derived things. The production cost of manufacturing lego bricks (crude oil derived) could rise significantly. Which could in turn fuel lego HODL prices as far as markets can sustain them. Although if crude oil ever became scarce enough to produce high returns on lego sets, our societal issues could have expanded far beyond a point where we're concerned about collectibles or toys.

That said I think I have to love the out of the box thinking present. Maybe if the apocalypse happens, people won't exchange gold or silver. They'll simply exchange lego sets as a form of currency. It appears lego sets appreciate at a greater sustained percentage than precious metals, anyway.
1347  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Billionaire Chamath Palihapitiya says Visa / Mastercard biggest failures 2022 on: January 03, 2022, 02:34:17 PM
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Billionaire investor Chamath Palihapitya has boldly predicted that Visa and Mastercard, two of the biggest payment processors, will be overthrown by emerging blockchain and DeFi projects in 2022.
"My biggest business loser for 2022 is Visa and MasterCard and traditional payment rails and the entire ecosystem around it," he said in an episode of the "All-In Podcast" released Wednesday.
To him, the long-standing payment systems used all over the world are a "completely contrived duopoly that doesn't need to exist."

Palihapitya, a former Facebook executive who runs the venture capital fund Social Capital, shared what he thinks will be the "most profitable spread trade" of his lifetime in the coming year.

"Be short these companies and anybody that basically lives off of this 2 or 3% (transaction) tax, and be long well-thought-out, Web3 crypto projects that are rebuilding payments infrastructure in a completely decentralized way," he said.

Without being specific, he predicted at the same time that "a lot of these scammy crypto projects will go to zero."

"If you read the whitepapers of these crypto projects, and you systematically put together a framework, I think you can be long those and you can be short Visa/MasterCard, because I think this is their peak market cap," he added.

A spread trade is a market order in which a trader simultaneously carries out a purchase of one security and sale of a related security in a single unit. Investors execute this trade to attempt to profit from the spread, or difference, between the buying and selling prices.

Palihapitya based his opinion on Amazon's decision to ban the usage of Visa credit cards in the UK, because of high transaction fees, last month.

"The canary in the coal mine here is pretty significant," he said. "Amazon is not going to do something like that, in my opinion, unless it's a test of what they can do all around the world."

"There really is no need today for all these small businesses to sit on top of Visa, MasterCard, and AmEx rails. It's unnecessary."

He also predicted the first movers for the adoption of this emergent technology will be in the developing world.

"This is why I think focusing in markets like Nigeria to me are way more exciting than talking about these fading Western European countries. This is where this stuff will happen," he said.

"We'll look back in 10 years and (traditional payment processors) market caps will be materially lower."

Visa and Mastercard have been underperformers in 2021, with their stock prices roughly flat year-to-date, compared with a roughly 27% gain in the S&P 500.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/chamath-palihapitiya-visa-mastercard-biggest-losers-2022-web3-crypto-altcoin-2021-12


....


This is interesting:

Quote
Palihapitya based his opinion on Amazon's decision to ban the usage of Visa credit cards in the UK, because of high transaction fees, last month

Also interesting:

Quote
"This is why I think focusing in markets like Nigeria to me are way more exciting than talking about these fading Western European countries. This is where this stuff will happen," he said.


I think the consensus is cryptocurrencies cannot hope to compete in home, car, business or student loan markets. Crypto lacks the support and infrastructure network necessary to do background or credit checks for those applying for loans in these areas. Visa and mastercard however have no such protections. Not only from crypto. But also from many 3rd party electronic payment apps which are whittling away at market share historically held by visa/mastercard/american express.

In recent history we have seen retailers like sears struggle against new innovations and methods of doing business fostered by walmart and later amazon. Is it safe to say that visa and mastercard will soon meet the same fate sears did, losing significant maket share and stock value versus newcomers to the market who enjoy basic fundamental advantages?


1348  Economy / Economics / Re: New Year - The crypto economics on: January 01, 2022, 02:41:47 PM
I wanna how you guys gonna react to your own “personal economic world”.  Tongue


I live in an area which supposedly has more than 300 inches of rain annually. Its raining much of the time and I think this water must have value somehow. Aside from being ice to eskimos. There are good quantities of old lava rock everywhere. The majority of which appear to be composed of silicon and aluminum. If I feel bored, I try to think of ways to monetize. To see what type of crazy ideas I might come up with. I think there are always opportunities lying in plain sight all around us. Its only a matter of becoming more skilled and patient in identifying and leveraging them.

Crypto has made impressive gains, yet I think there is still plenty of room for development, innovation and growth. Even a technology as basic as electric cars can lead to Elon Musk becoming the most wealthy man in the world. The potential of crypto could be higher than electric cars. It is possible, we will see Elon Musk be dethroned as the richest by someone in cryptocurrencies or blockchain eventually. If only due to the potential crypto has to change so many more lives than electric cars do.

With 2022 on the calendar, we're near the halfway point of the next bitcoin rewards halving. Only 2 more years to go. The entry point for the next crypto bull market could be nearer on the horizon.
1349  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Your gambling mistakes and amendment on: January 01, 2022, 01:50:49 PM
My biggest gambling mistake for 2021, was not making more of an effort to include big data in my analysis. Many in fantasy sports have included big data in their picks for years now. The technology is accessible and available. There isn't much of a valid excuse not to pursue it aside from complacency and laziness.

Definitely need to make more of opportunities available, and make the obvious adaptations to get ahead. 2022 is just a number and another year.

Second biggest gambling error for 2021 was underestimating the tendency for athletes to take rest games where they coasted on not needing wins to qualify for playoffs. Competition for teams needing wins to become eligible for wild cards and the post season, remained fierce in the mid to late season. There were definitely a few lessons that were learned as well, regarding rest days for teams and the effect it has upon performance.
1350  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Eagle FC to fighters in Bitcoin on: December 31, 2021, 01:12:00 PM
Eagle FC is the first venture of Khabib "The Eagle" Nurmagomedov to break into organizing and promoting mixed martial arts events in florida.

The main event is scheduled to be Kevin Lee versus Diego Sanchez in the new 165 pound weight division.

I still question whether the division should be 165 pounds or 162.5. Existing weight divisions are 155 and 170 lbs respectively. 162.5 would be the halfway point between the two. For whatever reason many appear to prefer a straight 165 for MMA fighters who consider themselves too heavy to compete at 155 lbs and too light to be in the 170 lb division.

If I remember right, there are many florida athletes competing in the NFL who are paid in bitcoin. Florida itself appears to be emerging as a bitcoin and cryptocurrency friendly region. They have passed laws favorable to crypto. Eagle FC as said is hosted in florida. Perhaps its not so difficult to see how the dots are connecting here.

Also Khabib Nurmagomedov the retired UFC champion and promoter of Eagle FC is known for purchasing and owning expensive NFTs. Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies could very well have an underestimated following as far as crypto support goes.
1351  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Top Cryptocurrencies for iGaming 2021 on: December 31, 2021, 12:24:22 PM
I'm shocked (USDT) tether is used for gambling purposes.

Tether is outright banned in many countries and states. Its pegged to the US dollar which is experiencing inflation at the moment. There is a chance many countries which do not currently regulate tether or stablecoins could choose to do so in the future.

Would be curious to know what advantages tether might offer to gamblers to offset what could be disadvantages. Don't get me wrong. I love tether as a means of purchasing bitcoin but do not think it is well suited for use in the gambling industry.
1352  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 🥊 The UFC Info and Prediction Thread on: December 31, 2021, 11:58:00 AM
As for sponsorships, yeah, there was much more money to be made before the rebook deal, and Rory was one of the more outspoken fighters that lost money when rebook set in.



Before the reebok deal, there was a famous incident in 2010 where Tito Ortiz of punishment athletic clothing promised to pay Jason Brilz $500 for having their logo on his fight shorts.

Jason Brilz won his fight and received $0 of the $500 he was promised in sponsorship fees. Many MMA fighters promised sponsorship money in that era, never got the deal in writing and were never paid.

Its very hard to get an accurate picture of the MMA sponsorship landscape. It has such a long history with many cases where people exaggerate or say things that aren't true. Which makes it hard to tell what really happens behind the scenes.
1353  Economy / Economics / COVID has driven Americans to bank $1.6 TRILLION in savings on: December 30, 2021, 02:13:01 PM
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The COVID-19 pandemic has driven Americans to hoard $1.6 trillion in 'excess savings' amidst ongoing fears of an economic crisis, despite the fact that experts are warning that the value of these rainy day funds are being slashed by surging inflation rates.

American households would not have put away the huge sum had the COVID-19 crisis not changed the world over the last two years, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

The funds are far more than the usual three to six months of emergency savings financial advisors typically recommend.

Saving rates have dipped to 2019 levels following four consecutive quarters of record high amounts of savings due to Americans hoarding their savings, money managers, financial advisers and economists say, according to the Wall Street Journal.

But they forsee more cash stockpiling in the immediate future, with the Omicron variant likely to trigger Americans to save yet more of their cash over fears of possible future chaos.  

To make matters worse, annual inflation rates in the United States have steadily increased since January 2021 and through August 2021, starting at just 1.4 percent in January 2021 all the way to 5 percent in August 2021. It has since surged to 6.1 per cent in October, the most recent figure available, and the highest level since 1990.



This chart shows the percentage of disposable income saved by Americans each month - with the rate spiking close to 35 per cent as COVID hit US shores  



The blue line on this chart from the Bureau of Economic Analysis shows the amount of cash Americans saved - in billions of dollars each month, with a COVID spike in 2020. The red line on the right shows the amount economists think Americans would have saved had it not been for the appearance of the virus  

'I have been one of the more optimistic ones, but with this new variant now on the horizon, I think we're in for more of the same of what we've seen over the last six months,' says Wendy Edelberg, director of the Hamilton Project at the Brookings Institution.

In reality, economists say hoarding one's savings can actually hurt a persons' long-term finances if inflation continues to increase, while causing bigger issues for the economy, of which consumer spending accounts for over two-thirds of its gross domestic product, the Wall Street Journal reports.

America's money hoarding began at the start of the coronavirus pandemic, as the government issued three rounds of stimulus checks to qualified individuals.

As the pandemic nears it's second year, and with no end in sign as the specter of the Omicron variant continues to loom large, Americans, many of whom have been largely housebound since the pandemic's onset, have remained thriftier than ever.

The result has been the highest personal savings rate since World War II thanks in part to rising incomes and a healthy labor market, according to the Journal.

'We see a lot of folks sitting on an incredibly high savings amount, and it's really just a fear factor,' says Nina O’Neal, partner and investment adviser with AIM Advisors.

'In 2021, they kind of felt like, "Things were getting better. We're going to get better from the pandemic," and they did, but also, they didn't. It is sort of like the same sideways winding road from last year, and so I think people started to spend a little bit more but they continue to hold that cash.'

However, there has been a slight uptick in spending in recent months as experts say Americans have started to use more credit cards to spend their money on smaller items, with 27 percent of US consumers saying in October they had applied for a credit card over the last 12 months.

And while credit card balances have remained below pre-pandemic levels, the amount increased $17 billion to $800 billion in the third quarter of 2021, with the same sized increase in the second quarter, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Americans between the ages of 40 to 49 and 50 to 59 currently make up the lions share of the credit card debt.

And consumer spending on bigger purchases spiked 2.2 percent in October.  

Charlotte Geletka, managing partner and owner at the financial advisory firm Silver Penny Financial Planning, outlined the disadvantages of hoarding savings, as money in the bank only loses value.

Geletka added that on the other hand, cash affords people flexibility and is easier to access in the event of a personal financial crisis.  

Geletka told the Journal that she recommends her clients to split their funds by putting one portion of their savings in the stock market, while keeping the other liquid, as in cash, for easy access should an emergency arise.

Meanwhile, President Joe Biden recently said reversing rampant inflation is a 'top priority' after cost of living increased to 6.2 percent - its highest level in 31 years.

Last month, Biden announced that Jerome Powell will serve a second term as the Federal Reserve Chair.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10269475/COVID-19-turned-Americans-super-savers-hoard-cash-despite-inflation-threatening-value.html


....


We appear to lack complete savings data for 2021. Charts above indicate massive $1.6 trillion in savings for 2020 followed by a dip.

The author of the piece says "everything recovered in 2021" with consumers having no need to emergency binge save anymore.

Wouldn't it be so much better if consumers bought up inflation protected assets, rather than placing their savings in low interest rate accounts for that period. Bitcoin's value grew dramatically in 2021. Could a portion of that growth be attributed to consumers and retail investors placing savings in bitcoin, gold or silver?

Curious to know if anyone feels the economy made a complete recovery in 2021. Are we back to normal?



1354  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Opinion on increasing gambling. on: December 30, 2021, 01:47:38 PM
It could be accurate to say this generation was born and raised on video games.

Gambling on the internet is merely another video game where people can exchange their time and energy for profits and money. Rather than the usual video game happy ending™.

The advent of social media and instagram have popularized gamblers like Vegas Dave who flaunt expensive supercars and wealth they claim to have acquired through gambling.

Gambling advertisements and marketing are much more common. The barrier of entry to becoming a gambler much easier to achieve over the internet.

Many different factors converged to create a perfect storm of gambling becoming a more popular and mainstream trend.

It definitely is on the rise. Many like myself have noticed the change over the last few years. Sports commentators acknowledge betting odds and cut promos for sportsbooks wheras only a few years earlier both were unheard of. Athletes too have begun to do promotional work for gambling websites and books. A far cry from Pete Rose being indicted and dishonored over his sports gambling career.
1355  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Elon Musk guesses who bitcoin's mysterious creator Satoshi Nakamoto is on: December 30, 2021, 01:01:30 PM
Quote
Elon Musk seems to agree with many that the hypersecretive cryptocurrency expert Nick Szabo might be Satoshi Nakamoto, the mysterious creator of the digital currency bitcoin.
"You can look at the evolution of ideas before the launch of bitcoin and see who wrote about those ideas," Musk told the artificial-intelligence researcher Lex Fridman in a podcast published Tuesday when asked what he thought about Nakamoto's identity.

The Tesla billionaire said while he "obviously" didn't know who created bitcoin, Szabo's theories seemed fundamental to the creation of the leading cryptocurrency.
"It seems as though Nick Szabo is probably, more than anyone else, responsible for the evolution of those ideas," he said. "He claims not to be Nakamoto, but I'm not sure that's neither here nor there. But he seems to be the one more responsible for the ideas behind bitcoin than anyone else."

Bitcoin was first proposed in October 2008 by Satoshi Nakamoto, a pseudonym for who people believed could be one person or several people.

In 2014, a team of linguistic researchers studied Nakamoto's bitcoin whitepaper alongside the writing of Szabo and 10 other possible creators. They found the results to be indisputable.
"The number of linguistic similarities between Szabo's writing and the bitcoin whitepaper is uncanny," the researchers said, adding: "None of the other possible authors were anywhere near as good of a match."

A 2015 New York Times report also pinned bitcoin's invention on Szabo. He has spoken publicly about the history of bitcoin and blockchain technology, but he's repeatedly denied claims that he's the anonymous inventor behind the digital asset. Another reason he's linked to bitcoin is his creation of the "bit gold" cryptocurrency in 1998.

Musk indicated he didn't think there was much significance behind the identity of bitcoin's creator: "What is a name anyway? It's a name attached to an idea. What does it even mean, really?"

Backing his thought, he quoted William Shakespeare to say: "A rose by any other name would smell as sweet."

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/elon-musk-bitcoin-satoshi-nakamoto-creator-cryptocurrency-history-2021-12


The debate continues...

Elon Musk appears to have a pool of smart people he works with to discuss topics like these. It appears Nick Szabo is the leading candidate in their upper tier of their intelligentsia. If it is Nick Szabo he must be one of those who avoids media attention and the spotlight. In contrast to the Craig Wright's of the world, Szabo tends to keep a low profile.

Its been claimed linguistic analysis of bitcoin whitepapers best match Nick Szabo's writing style. But I don't remember specifics or examples being cited. Does anyone know which specific words or phrases were claimed to link Nick Szabo's writing style to any of the whitepapers authored by Satoshi Nakamoto?
1356  Economy / Economics / IRS says stolen property and bribes must be reported as income on: December 30, 2021, 12:39:40 PM
Quote
Did you steal a car in 2021? How about taking a bribe? If you did, the IRS says to make sure you report it on your taxes.  

Those provisions went viral Monday following a tweet alerting taxpayers to those somewhat surprising requirements to note the value of your ill-gotten gains.

"Tax szn is around the corner," read the tweet from @litcapital. "Remember to report your income from illegal activities and stolen property to the IRS."

The requirements can be found at IRS.gov amid other missives to report income earned from jobs in the gig economy and what to do about taxable alimony payments.

"If you steal property, you must report its fair market value in your income in the year you steal it unless you return it to its rightful owner in the same year,"' read the provision for stolen property.

What if you're dealing drugs or caught up in other crimes?

In that case, the IRS publication says jot your earnings on line 8z, Schedule 1 of your 1040 form, "or on schedule C ... if from your self-employment activity."

And don't forget to report any bribes or kickbacks you took in the course of doing business.

The kickbacks also go on Schedule 1 or Schedule C, while the IRS says bribes should simply be included in your income.

"If I steal a bunch of tvs from walmart and a homeless man steals them from me can i write that off as a loss?" read one tweet.

"So once you report your stolen stuff you legally get to keep it right? Asking for a friend."

An IRS spokesman confirmed the provisions are on its website but declined to comment further.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2021/12/28/irs-says-stolen-property-must-reported-and-twitter-goes-wild/9035694002/


....


Meme reaction:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G56VgsLfKY4


The US tax code is alleged to be an odd thing weighing in at more than 60,000 pages in length. Whether the IRS was forged in the image of the US tax code or vice versa is up for debate. One thing is for certain. The IRS has many odd quirks and foibles. It does not function in the way most would expect. Most reading this would expect all reports of criminal activity reported in tax documents to be forwarded to local law enforcement. Yet the IRS has maintained a demonstrable degree of confidentiality over the years, and is provably shown to be lawfully bound from sharing confidential data under certain circumstances.

One example of this is illegal immigrants in the USA who report and pay taxes. Most might expect such reports to be forwarded to immigration officials so residents illegally in the country can be deported. But that is not the case. It has been documented in some cases, that the IRS is legally bound and restricted from sharing such personal information regarding immigration. Even if they are connected to ongoing criminal cases.

While I can't say I completely understand the process or future of the IRS in the country. It is quite possible that in the future, the IRS will be legally bound from sharing accounts of criminal activity with law enforcement to guarantee the government reaps a higher share of tax revenues from crime.
1357  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: What will be the next big industry move? on: December 29, 2021, 02:14:36 PM
What is your personal bet on the next big events in the betting industry?



I think large nations and organizations like the european union will seek to heavily regulate and restrict gambling.

While smaller struggling nations will deregulate their gambling industry in an effort to create jobs and entice capital inflow from an influx of new residents: gamblers seeking a region to settle in which caters to user friendly gambling laws.

Many small nations already struggle with exceedingly low employment and other negative economic statistics which dwarf negative aspects of gambling. Legalizing marijuana and decriminalizing drugs are two steps many small nations already do in an effort to boost their economies. I think a similar approach to gambling will be embraced as it grows as a global industry.

Larger and more wealthy nations can get away with having more restrictive regulation and high taxation. While smaller and less wealthy nations have lower wonk tolerance for that type of approach.
1358  Economy / Economics / The Crypto Rich Are Flocking to Puerto Rico on: December 28, 2021, 02:19:46 PM
Quote
The St. Regis Bahia Beach Resort in Puerto Rico boasts a golf course and oceanfront residences in a 483-acre nature reserve, set along azure waters and lush rainforest. But what’s perhaps most appealing to those who are now rushing to this property is the section on its website explaining tax benefits for island residents.

That was the case for Anthony Emtman, who left Los Angeles behind and bought a condo at the resort in March. The chief executive officer of Ikigai Asset Management is now a part of a burgeoning crypto community along Puerto Rico’s north shore, where the tropical weather is just a bonus.

Emtman and his crypto peers are taking a page out of hedge funds’ books and seeking residence on the island to reap huge tax savings. High-earning investors in the U.S. pay up to 20% in capital gains tax and as much as 37% on short-term gains. In Puerto Rico, they pay nothing. And companies based on the American mainland pay 21% in federal corporate tax plus an individual state tax, compared to just 4% on the island. That makes the move a no-brainer for some investors, especially as the crypto market’s meteoric growth continues and Democrats push for higher taxes on the rich.

The presence of digital currency enthusiasts is already palpable on the small island, where chance encounters and networking opportunities abound: Run-ins at taco stands; spontaneous drinks and dinner at luxury condos; “Crypto Mondays” gatherings at hotels and restaurants across San Juan.

Crypto funds Pantera Capital and Redwood City Ventures are among those that have established offices on the island. Facebook product manager-turned-whistleblower Frances Haugen recently told the New York Times she's living in Puerto Rico in part to be with her “crypto friends.” New York City’s mayor-elect, Eric Adams, even flew there in November with crypto-billionaire Brock Pierce for dinner with Puerto Rico’s Governor Pedro Pierluisi.

Now, “it’s not just, ‘Move to Puerto Rico to save tax,’” said Giovanni Mendez, a corporate and tax attorney advising those who relocate. “It’s, ‘Move to Puerto Rico because everybody is there.’”

The Puerto Rican government created the tax breaks in 2012 with the hopes of infusing the island’s struggling economy with cash and diversifying its job pool. Hedge funds gradually began seeking a toehold on the island, but what’s really supercharged the flurry of arrivals is the pandemic — which drove a shift away from big cities and popularized remote work — and the recent explosion in crypto markets.

Proponents of the tax breaks describe it as not only a boost for an island that’s been mired in bankruptcy for more than four years — prolonged by hurricanes, earthquakes, a political scandal and the pandemic — but an opportunity for reinvention. Still, the idea has its detractors: Some of the laws only apply to new residents, so lifelong islanders are ineligible. It’s made some hesitant to welcome the new crop of wealthy denizens, fearful that the flow of income will exacerbate inequality and create social tension. As is, real estate prices are already rocketing to “absurd” levels.

During the last big crypto bull run in 2017, many investors tried to move to Puerto Rico before the market peaked and then collapsed, said Mendez. So far this year, Puerto Rico has received more than 1,200 applications — a record — through its Individual Investors Act, which exempts new residents from paying taxes on capital gains, according to the island’s Department of Economic Development and Commerce. The number of U.S. mainlanders seeking Puerto Rico’s tax breaks has tripled this year.

Another 274 corporations, LLCs, partnerships and other entities were approved for the Exports Services Act, which provides a 4% corporate tax rate and a 100% exemption on dividends. Both fall under Puerto Rico’s Act 60, a group of tax breaks that were packaged together in 2019 to attract investment not just from crypto, but finance, tech and other industries.



The island even kicked off its first Puerto Rico Blockchain Week on Dec. 6. On the first day of the conference, Puerto Rico House Speaker Rafael “Tatito” Hernandez announced that the legislature would look into using blockchain technology to reduce government graft.

Eventually, “Puerto Rico will be recognized as a blockchain capital,” said Michael Terpin, the founder of BitAngels, who relocated to the island from Las Vegas in 2016. He says he’s referred to as the “messiah” in crypto circles for evangelizing the island’s tax benefits and new business community.

Paradise Living

The crypto crowd has primarily gravitated to three areas along the coast.

There are the secluded escapes, like Bahia, which sits 26 miles east of San Juan, and the Ritz-Carlton-branded Dorado Beach resort, about 23 miles to the west of the capital. Those seeking a more urban lifestyle have opted for Condado, a high-end neighborhood and shopping district in San Juan, where condo and hotel towers line the oceanfront.

“There’s restaurants and there’s coffee shops and there’s a mall,” said Brent Johnson, the CEO of wealth management firm Santiago Capital, who moved from San Francisco to Condado in May. “It’s kind of like a mini Miami.”

During his time in Puerto Rico, Johnson has been able to connect with wealth management, private equity and crypto firms, as well as people in the real estate, pharmaceutical, energy and agricultural sectors. 

“I felt like I could come here, do my job, and still be plugged into the financial community, much more so than going to somewhere like Hawaii or Mexico,” he said.

As for life in Bahia, “it’s like living in a rainforest,” said Ikigai’s Emtman. Except in this rainforest you can play tennis, basketball, golf, lift weights in the gym or go kayaking. When the sun goes down, the sports are swapped out for drinks.

“The welcoming nature and the friendliness and the inclusiveness of people means you end up over at someone’s place for a meal or a couple drinks,” he said.

That was the case for Brent James, a crypto investor who moved to Puerto Rico in 2018 from Atlanta.

About two months ago, he was eating tacos with a friend in Condado when he spotted Johnson biking. James recognized Johnson from his popular Twitter account.

“I shout out his name and he comes over and we started a conversation and became friends,” James said. Johnson invited him to a small gathering, which led to conversations about new projects and business opportunities.

“There’s a hunger for knowledge and opportunity on the island,” James said.

Property Boom

The influx of newcomers is causing waves in the real estate market, particularly in the resort communities.

Dorado has seen the most growth, with prices almost tripling, according to Priscilla Ferrer, a Puerto Rican broker and appraiser.

“It’s absurd,” she said. “These luxury properties are getting bought for an emotional rate and not an economic rate.”

Francisco Diaz Fournier, founding partner of Luxury Collection Real Estate, said it’s now common to see properties sell for more than $20 million.

“Right now we are selling a home in Dorado Beach for $27 million, and another one is going for $29 million,” he said.   

In Bahia, prices per square foot have almost doubled, according to Blanca Lopez, founder of Gramercy Real Estate Group and daughter-in-law of Governor Pierluisi.

“We are seeing prices north of $3,000 per square foot,” she said, while high-end home values in Condado are around  $1,400 to $1,500 per square foot, a roughly 35% increase from a year ago.

And there isn’t enough inventory to satiate demand, as buyers are flocking to the island faster than high-end homes can be built.

“We don’t have room, at least not in Dorado, Bahia or Condado,” said Diaz Fournier. “The market is spreading out, so we're seeing spillovers in areas of San Juan where people wouldn't look before.”

As wealthier people gain ground elsewhere, it hurts housing and job prospects for islanders, said Raul Santiago-Bartolomei, an assistant professor at the University of Puerto Rico’s graduate school of planning.

“It’s making these places more unattainable for a workforce and low-income households that actually need to be living near these high opportunity areas,” he said.

There are several new residential towers rising in Condado, but that won’t be enough to keep pace. Diaz Fournier said there’s even a labor shortage, so Puerto Rico is working with the U.S. Department of State to secure visas to bring “people from the Dominican Republic, Mexico, Haiti and South America because we don't have the people to build.”

For him, the newcomers are welcome, after more than 500,000 residents left the island over the last two decades.

“This is really exciting,” he said. “These are the best years of Puerto Rico.”

‘One Puerto Rico’

So far, the incentives appear to be creating jobs.

From 2015 to 2019, the Individual Investors Act added around 4,400 jobs and the Export Services Act added 36,222, according to a study by Puerto Rican consulting firm Estudios Tecnicos. Call centers accounted for most of the jobs, followed by consulting services, advertising, public relations and tax and accounting services.

As long as the jobs are coming, the “doors are open” for the crypto community, said Carlos Fontan, director of incentives at the Department of Economic Development and Commerce.

The tax breaks are doing what they were intended to, said Alberto Baco-Bague, the department’s former secretary and a driving force behind Act 60.

In 2017, he created the Partnership for Modern Puerto Rico, an economic development think tank that connects local business leaders with incoming Act 60 members. John Paulson’s investment management firm, advisory services firm Grant Thornton and tech company Evertec are among its 100 members, whose total assets under management surpass $50 billion, according to Baco-Bague.

“Ideally we want to be building one Puerto Rico,” he said. “Not one Puerto Rico for new residents and another one for local business leaders.”

Still, one of the biggest challenges is convincing the local population of the program’s economic benefits. The Individual Investors Act, also known as Act 22, only applies to non-Puerto Ricans, meaning islanders are ineligible. And even though the Export Services Act is available to locals, many assume otherwise because the tax break is often marketed alongside programs for foreigners.

“There is certainly a cry for a more just taxation system in Puerto Rico,” said Caroline Lopez, a tax attorney who has been working with incentives since 2011. “Puerto Ricans are always wondering, ‘does it make sense that I’m paying all these taxes and a lot of people under Act 22 don’t?’”

During a visit to San Juan this month, Nobel-prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz said the tax breaks were not an effective economic development tool.

“The people coming under Act 22 are not adding that much to the Puerto Rican economy,” he told a conference hosted by the Center for a New Economy. “They are spending a little, but very little, and at the same time they’re raising real estate prices and the cost of living for others. They are, what we economists call, a negative externality.”

Puerto Rico isn’t the first to try and attract crypto investment, and it certainly won’t be the last. The economy of El Zonte, a surf town on El Salvador’s Pacific coast surf town, runs on Bitcoin. El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele was a proponent of crypto long before taking office in 2019.  This year, the country adopted Bitcoin as its national currency, and announced plans for the first-ever sovereign Bitcoin bonds and a tax-free Bitcoin City. Portugal, too, isn’t taxing the buying or selling of cryptocurrencies, unless it’s an individual’s main source of income.

Juan Carlos Pedreira, a Puerto Rican crypto entrepreneur, says the growing interest, particularly among young islanders, provides a unique opportunity.

If it’s not taken seriously, “we are going to miss the chance to reinvent the island.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-12-11/crypto-rich-are-moving-to-puerto-rico-world-s-new-luxury-tax-haven


....


Puerto Rico. 4% income taxes. If you build it, they will apparently come.

What are the odds the fringe movement of private citizens renouncing citizenship in their native countries to reap benefits of low taxation in puerto rico. Won't become a more mainstream trend in the future?

The united states has sometimes been labeled an experiment in democracy. Now it appears nations like puerto rico are experimenting with low taxation, low financial reporting requirements and deregulation. There are claims of these policies fueling economic growth and job creation. Can these trends be sustained over the long term?

Whatever the opposite of capital flight is. Can it be fair to say there is a bright future for it in places like puerto rico and el salvador (if they can follow through on their promises).
1359  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: 7 NFL Players Who Chose Crypto over Cash on: December 28, 2021, 02:09:22 PM
Athletes and sports could be a logical market for crypto ventures to tap. Given Floyd Mayweather Jr's support of ICO start ups. And Mike Tyson owning bitcoin ATMs. It seems that the UFC and other sports have become involved with crypto.com and plaster their ads everywhere. I really hope its the beginning of a beautiful partnership, where everyone involved can benefit.

NFL players are a little late hopping on the crypto bandwagon but I am definitely glad they are taking the initiative. Hopefully they will make a lot of money and profit.

1360  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 🥊 The UFC Info and Prediction Thread on: December 28, 2021, 02:01:18 PM
those earnings are before you calculate in tax, camp expenses, management and trainer fees, living costs in the US...


Its been said UFC fighters can receive free training and free meals at the UFC Performance Institute in Las Vegas. In addition they're supposed to receive royalties for all of their signature items in the UFC store that are sold. Those are probably the two biggest changes in recent times that fly beneath the radar.

I would seriously be curious to know how much bellator MMA fighters profit from dude wipes sponsorships. There have been claims of 5 or 6 figure payouts but somehow I don't think dude wipes has the cash to throw six figures at MMA fighters in bellator.

Interestingly enough, Rory MacDonald was publicized as receiving a 6 figure sponsorship payout from dashcoin when he competed at bellator. That claim might have been legit. In that there could be some truth to claims of large sponsorship payouts outside the UFC if only on a limited basis.
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