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Crypto remains incapable of entering loan markets. There is zero penetration of student loan, home loan and car loan markets for cryptocurrencies. A trend which is likely to remain constant heading into the future. There is also not much cryptocurrency support for pensions, healthcare and other big dollar markets where banks and established financial institutions dominate.
There are definitely areas where crypto has advantages over banks. But can anyone imagine a scenario where student loans, home loans or car loans become crypto supported industries? Banks can have no fear of crypto seeping into those markets. Conflict between the two could be ideological. Banks favor centralization, crypto leans towards the opposite. Banks favor fractional reserve inflation. Crypto has enjoyed success with deflationary models.
It may be fair to say fear is an obstacle to progress and science. No one need fear cryptocurrencies, as they carry a potential to make life better for everyone, bankers included.
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The following is a legendary piece published in 2018 about a gambler who allegedly used big data analysis coupled with long time experience to smash the world of horse race gambling. 2018 was also a year when many wallstreet investment firms were buying up many gambling sportsbooks. There was a massive transition occurring from the historical protocols and rules of sports gambling prior to 2018. And the era post 2018 where many fundamental rules changed and it became much more common for gamblers to be banned for winning. |
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Greater risk is correlated with greater reward. Wall street takes bigger and more educated risks in contrast to most others.
Ideology plays a big role. Poor to middle class earners are raised to believe they can never become involved in stocks, bonds or investing without being scammed.
Those who enjoy greater financial success more commonly have a mentality of stocks, bonds and investing being winnable and profitable scenarios for those willing to invest time and energy.
The difference in mentality alone creates a divide spanning the rich and poor.
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Do you think that a market crash similar to 2008 is indeed coming? If yes, then why? What are the indicators your follow to predict the market in general? Somewhere in recent history, many of us ceased paying attention to economic fundamentals. The current state of the US stock market became the prime indicator determining the welfare and health of the US economy. If the stock market rises, people assume the economy is doing well. If the stock market declines, people assume the economy is in a bad place. In 2021 the US economy is in a strange place where many of its economic fundamentals are not the best yet the stock market continues to rise as if the economy exhibited good growth. Many look at the stock market rising and conclude it reflects the economy. There was news of supply chain issues due to COVID-19 a few weeks before the big stock market crash of 2020. There was a long and pronounced delayed reaction between supply chain disruptions and the actual crash which ensued. I think we're in a similar situation now. A crash could be imminent, although we're witnessing a delayed reaction to it. |
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This what poor people need:
Is poor people fund managets who grow up their capital and reinvest this money for example in IPO on stock market and creating crypto projects to be listed later on exchangers 10x profit at least. In boxing, athletes who do not understand finance are often taken advantage of by their managers. Mike Tyson sued his former manager Don King for $100 million. Today many MMA fighters have disputes with their managers for similar reasons. Its not unheard of for prize fighters who make millions to have funds mishandled by management and money handlers. In general, the only way for people to not be taken advantage of is to be literate in finance and money and be directly involved in everything. The poor are a prime target for con artists and thieves due to lack of financial literacy. It is sad to say but if people can get away with exploiting lack of knowledge in the poor, or in wealthy athletes, they will often do so. Even if the poor do succeed in turning a profit. It may simply mean they'll find their favorite drug dealer to buy drugs and spend it all. When COVID stimulus checks were sent, some people literally blew it all on drugs and were poor again within a very short span of time. One issue with poverty is, profits won't necessarily be handled in a way that translates to long term longevity. For the same reasons that more than 90% of those who win the lottery are usually poor again within a short time. Impulse shopping, lack of discipline and user credit could all conspire to help the poor remain forever poor. As someone who spent some time trying to think of ways to end poverty. I'm forced to admit, its a much more difficult problem to solve than I thought. |
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I still think the value of metaverse is based upon an assumption Elon Musk's neuralink brain implant will become the jack Neo used to interface with the matrix. People assume the next big leap is technology from the matrix trilogy where people directly interface with the internet through a brain link VR experience.
Virtual reality and 3D graphics are certainly nothing new. There have been no recent developments to say anything has changed in those industries to give VR a significant advantage over existing dynamic pages. I think everything metaverse promises can already be achieved using HTML5. Metaverse could be done in adobe flash. People were making 3d based VR user experiences in flash 10+ years ago. There is definitely a question as to what metaverses high promised valuation is based upon. I would be interested if anyone has an answer.
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What problem exactly are we trying to address by increasing wages or pegging wages to inflation? Why do we need to cure the symptoms of inflation instead of the disease itself? To alleviate a Cantillon effect? To make workers a bit happier? Who gets to pay these increased wages? In order to fulfill their obligations to pay employees higher wages, employers need to raise prices for the products they sell. The cost of higher wages is now simply passed on to someone else, that is, the consumers of a product. The employees, who have their income increased, are also consumers meaning that they are not going to enjoy the benefits of higher wages for long. Higher wages, despite all peggings, adjustments, and corrections, will only lead to higher inflation. Moreover, people witnessing ever-growing prices and never-ending printing will have inflationary expectations that, in turn, usually cause increased spending and, therefore, even much higher prices.
Remember when Voltaire was quoted as saying: "paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value -- zero". Our success versus failure rate of addressing inflation is apparently not great from a historical perspective. If we wait and expect governments to fix inflation, we're placing ourselves in the role of damsels in distress. Whose only salvation may lie in government regulators saving us. The probability of inflation being fixed may not be great. If so our best chance for averting a worst case scenario, could be to look at other options. We may not be able to fix inflation. But we may be able to design and implement a crypto token or bond that is useful for reducing negative effects of inflation. We already have models for how this may be achieved with stablecoins designed to reduce volatility. Inflation and volatility are similar enough that what will mitigate one, can also be effective against the other. |
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The december 15th, 2021 deadline is looming large on the horizon.
My memory of past debt ceiling raises and the implications of it not being raised are vague.
Some sources claim that failure to raise the debt ceiling would result in a default. Other sources have said that essential operations and funding of programs like social security, unemployment and food stamps would continue to run normally while other less critical aspects of government would be shut down.
If the debt ceiling is not raised before the deadline, I guess we will all find out together what the real world implications are.
Vaguely, I seem to remember the debt ceiling not being raised and government shutting down under Obama. Without anything serious happening, most may not even have realized it occurred. But I could be remembering incorrectly on that.
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So, guys, NFL n00b here, be wary. Could someone tell me where we're at with all this playoff goings on. Just to remind myself, these were my preseason picks on outright winners:
Steelers @37.3
Dolphins @34
Patriots @34
Seahawks @25.2
Packers @14.2
According to Sportsbet.io odds right now, these are:
Steelers @91
Dolphins @251
Patriots @8
Seahawks @251
Packers @8.5
So I'm not doing too badly, then? 2 of my 5 picks are in the Top 5. But exactly how far away are we from finding out who goes through and all that? Uncle Google is confusing me.
After my MLB heartbreak with BoSox, I'd love to get some happiness from Super Bowl =)
The current timeline of NFL games is week 14. The regular season schedule goes up to week 18. Then it goes like this on a week by week breakdown. Wild Card Games (january 12 - 18) Divisional Round (january 19 - 25) Conference Championships (january 26 - february 1) Pro Bowl (february 2 - 8 ) Superbowl (february 9 - 15) Green Bay Packers is a good pick. Aaron Rodgers has looked great despite his COVID protocol troubles and injured toe. I think Rodgers is passing the ball the best out of all the current active quarterbacks playing. The biggest question for green bay is whether their defense can hold up. Green bay's defense gave up 30 points today, against a chicago team not known for their offense. In a close game, that could be the difference between win and loss. |
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The college class of 2020 entered one of the most hostile labor markets in recent history. During the first year of the Covid pandemic, employment decreased across the country. By many measures, college graduates fared best during this period, but as time passes, research is capturing just how difficult conditions are for young workers. The National Association of Colleges and Employers (NACE) recently analyzed the outcomes for 563,000 bachelor’s graduates across 337 colleges and universities and found that only 50.2% of the class of 2020 had full-time jobs with a traditional employer (meaning they are not working as a freelancer or entrepreneur) within six months of graduation. In comparison, 55.3% of the class of 2019 graduates were employed within the same time frame. Students who attended colleges with fewer than 2,000 students tended to do better after graduation. Closer to 62% of these students had full-time positions after six months. “The Covid-19 pandemic had a significant effect on the job market for the Class of 2020, and our report illustrates that,” says Shawn VanDerziel, executive director of NACE. “In terms of employment within six months of graduation, 2020 graduates had the worst outcomes since we began tracking with the class of 2014.”  According to an analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data from January 2020 to October 2020 by Pew Research Center, 2020 college graduates saw a bigger decrease in labor force participation than those who graduated during the Great Recession. Pew estimates that among all Americans ages 16 and older, the employment rate declined from 61% in October 2019 to 58% in October 2020. And according to an analysis of U.S. Census, Bureau of Labor Statistics and National Center for Education Statistics data for the years 1980 to 2019 by Georgetown University researchers, college costs have increased by 169% over the past four decades — while earnings for workers between the ages of 22 and 27 have increased by just 19%. To make matters worse, college graduates today also owe more in student debt. Adjusted for inflation, 2008 college graduates owed $24,012 in student loans, on average. In 2020, that total was closer to $36,665. Beyond a difficult labor market, the NACE report also mentions that graduate school attendance may be another reason the class of 2020′s employment rate dipped. Just over 21% of 2020 grads pursued continuing education after receiving their bachelor’s degree, an increase from 18.6% in 2019. The report also notes that for college graduates who did manage to secure full-time traditional employment, wages increased. “The average starting salary for the class of 2020 was $56,576 — 3.8% greater than in 2019. In addition, the median salary rose to $54,686 — 3.7% greater than in 2019,” reads the report. “A key driver for the increase in the average starting salary was the lack of lower-paying jobs that many new graduates typically secure as their first assignment following graduation. As was the case with the increases for the class of 2019, the salary increases for 2020 exceeded inflation. The real increase in starting salaries, controlling for inflation, was 2.5%.” “Many of the retail, hospitality and other service-focused jobs simply weren’t there, and these tend to be lower-paying,” explains VanDerziel. “As a result, most of the salaries that were reported were the higher-paying jobs, which skewed the average.” https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/10/50percent-of-the-class-of-2020-got-full-time-jobs-6-months-after-graduation.html.... Around 2012, I remember reading about the economies of portugal and spain suffering from 50% youth unemployment statistics. (Youth unemployment is ages 19-24) My reaction to this news was... "the united states could someday suffer from the same troubles, and we would be very much unprepared for it". When I see economic doom and gloom in foreign lands and 3rd world countries, I always think similar trends will reach the shores of america eventually. Years later, america has finally arrived to having the same 50% youth unemployment statistics spain and portugal suffered 10 years ago. The worst part of a 50% youth unemployment rate isn't usually on the surface. Its what is not seen, reflected in an uptick of suicide rates for young adults. Rising rates of homelessness for youth. Coupled with greater incidence of substance abuse, crime and violence. It was said to have taken more than a decade for sailors to accept the explanation of scurvy being caused by lack of citrus fruits and vitamin C. It may naturally follow that it will take decades for people to adequately become informed on and respond to topics like high youth unemployment. The learning curve of people becoming informed and competent on topics, could be greatly reduced. People might be learning and responding at greatly accelerated rates in contrast to past precedents. While current events are not great, do we all feel tempted to acknowledge that people are smarter and better informed than we gave them credit for being? Perhaps we can feel better about circumstances even if they are not ideal. And have hope for the future, in that people today might be smarter and more knowledgeable than those in past eras. It may no longer take 10 years for people to accept scurvy being caused by fruit and vitamin C deficiency. Perhaps we can respond to and fix these types of issues much more quickly now. |
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The stablecoins we have today are already pegged to inflation rates because they lose their value at the same rate as other inflationary currencies. In order to be a hedge against inflation, they should not be stable in any sense. What characteristics they have to have to provide reliable protection against inflation is a solid decentralized monetary policy with a fixed supply that no single individual or government could change. The european union tries to paint a pretty picture of its economy by pegging wage growth to inflation. When inflation rises, workers can expect their wages to rise as well. A crypto token pegged to an inflation rate could have an adjustable rate of exchange in an effort to protect the wealth and purchasing power of HODLers. I'm not entirely 100% certain how this might work (or not work) in practice. An adjustable rate of exchange could theoretically be achieved through supply. The total supply of tokens might be inflated or destroyed in an effort to match inflation rates. This could be done algorithmically as an alternative format to bitcoin's deflationary reward halving. Inflation itself is a controversial topic. There are some who claim inflation was a mere 3% post 2020. Inflation is similar to unemployment, in that its official definition and statistic has been adjusted, shifted and changed over time. The rise of prices, certainly does sometimes appear more than the paltry 3% or 8% which official statistics claim. Some might agree with that, others would not, I'm guessing. |
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Maybe now its a good time to invest
And borrow money. Rising inflation is said to make loan fixed rate, loan payments more affordable. If inflation isn't brought under control, and continues to rise. Taking out a loan to finance investment could be a good strategy. For US markets, there are several different policies the federal reserve could employ. One policy they might adopt is shrinking the money supply. In theory, I suppose it could reduce inflation. It might also make credit and loans more unobtainable. There is a big question of which financial strategies are best for current market conditions. How can people protect their wealth and use inflation to their best advantage? Borrowing money to invest could definitely be worthwhile. |
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For many Americans, the sudden burst of inflation that has rocked the economy has been disorienting. Consumer prices had been so stable for so long in the U.S. that the population finds itself a little rusty on basic inflationary-era tactics. So for some advice, we turned to people who have become experts in the art of surviving runaway inflation: Argentines. Walk around Buenos Aires and you’ll hear conversations -- between 18-year-old college students, 90-year-old retirees and everyone in between -- about currency exchange rates, soaring prices and strategies for coping. Of course, the 50% inflation they deal with in a typical year in Argentina -- the product of decades of policy missteps that have destroyed confidence in the central bank -- is far higher than the 6.8% rate that Americans are enduring. But many of the principles that shape the day-to-day habits of Argentine workers, consumers and savers are still broadly applicable in the U.S. today. Here are the Do’s and Don’ts they offered up, for however long the inflation fever lasts. Spend Your Paycheck Right AwayIn a high-inflation economy, money that sits in the bank is losing value. Each day, those $100 on deposit buy a little bit less. As a result, many Argentines spend their paychecks as soon as they receive them, carting away weeks worth of groceries in a single shopping trip, even if some of it -- excess meat, chicken, fish -- will sit in the freezer for months. The practical application of this technique in the U.S., where inflation isn’t quite high enough to warrant such a mad pay-day dash, is to expedite plans to buy big-ticket items -- appliances, bicycles, furniture. If you have the money to pay for that sofa now, do it. “Don’t leave your money resting under the couch,” says Federico Pieri, 30, who works in sales in Buenos Aires. “That’s the worst thing you can do.” Borrow Lots of MoneyAnd don’t hesitate to borrow money to finance some of those big purchases. If you can get a loan at a rate below inflation -- something that’s possible for many Americans today -- go for it. Inflation will make it easier to repay the loan in coming months and years. It’s just like they teach in economic textbooks, says Fernando Iglesias Molli, a coffee shop owner: “Take out money at very low rates. I put myself in debt to buy the best equipment and create business opportunities.” Negotiate a Pay Raise -- or TwoIt’s important to remember, Argentines say, that those old 2% wage increases you were getting each year no longer suffice. Any increase in your paycheck that’s less than the 6.8% inflation rate is effectively a pay cut. Your real wage, as economists call it, is declining. Argentina’s labor unions and companies negotiate annual pay raises for workers that factor in expected inflation. When prices rise more than anticipated, those agreements often get ripped up, and the two sides go back to the negotiating table to iron out new terms. It’s a powerful tool that American workers can take inspiration from, albeit one that would create angst for policy makers trying to prevent a wage-price spiral. Buy Inflation-Linked BondsThere are few good options for savers in a high-inflation economy. One of Argentines’ favorite saving tricks -- converting peso savings into dollars -- doesn’t work in the U.S., of course. Cryptocurrencies are another favorite, but many Americans already discovered those long ago, too. Then there’s inflation-linked debt. Argentine bond investors are so scarred by years of surging consumer prices that they insist the government sell it securities whose value rises in lockstep with the consumer price index. Those bonds make up almost 50% of the local debt market. In the U.S., they account for less than 10% of the overall market. Demand for them is picking up, though, including among mom-and-pop investors, who have begun to pile into the retail version of the securities. “Try to invest in something that can at least correlate with inflation,” Pieri says. Buy Homes and CarsAnother age-old hedge against inflation is real-estate, which tends to increase in value over time. Cars are also a popular savings investment among some Argentines. That option may seem a bit odd in a country like the U.S. where cars tend to depreciate in value rapidly, but the short supply of automobiles around the world has recently changed that dynamic. And for those Americans really frustrated by surging prices, Lalanne offers one more piece of advice: “Come to Argentina to spend your dollars. Here you are very rich.” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-11/the-inflation-pros-from-argentina-offer-tips-for-rattled-americans.... This looks like a good primer on surviving inflation. Inflation linked bonds are an interesting asset, I had not heard of before: https://www.investopedia.com/articles/bonds/09/inflation-linked-bonds.aspDoes anyone have good inflation survival tips they would like to share? In the future, a crypto token or coin could be pegged to inflation rates, as another type of stablecoin. That could be one area cryptocurrencies might expand into, where they may not have yet given much attention. |
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Can Bitcoin really weaken the Local Currencies in the Developing Nations? I would contend bitcoin will make local currencies in developing nations stronger. The way competition between AMD and intel forces both to develop stronger processors. Iron sharpens iron. Initially, locally currencies might weaken. The long term outlook however could see local currencies adjust to become more competitive and offer better terms to consumers. Regulators and heads of local currency management can be happy that bitcoin might create incentive for them to do a better job serving the public benefit. Bitcoin is a win/win scenario for them as well. |
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Bitcoin is designed and engineered by independent open source demographics, who aren't affiliated with special interests.
Ethereum has partnerships with big players like JP morgan and microsoft and is subject to conflicts of interest as a result.
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As I understand it, ETFs are similar to mutual funds. Except ETFs offer greater tax savings. Some in the united states have recently proposed closing this avenue of tax savings. Democratic plan would close tax break on exchange-traded fundsSeptember 16 2021 Senate Finance Committee Chairman Ron Wyden, D-Ore., has floated a new levy on exchange-traded funds to help pay for the Democrats' $3.5 trillion budget package. Exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, are baskets of assets — such as stocks or bonds — and can be bought or sold throughout the day like stock. While everyday investors don't directly own the shares, a fund manager may buy or sell the underlying assets to financial institutions. Regular investors typically avoid taxes while owning the fund because financial institutions can swap the underlying assets for others, known as an "in-kind" trade, which doesn't trigger capital gains. Wyden has called for ending the tax break for these in-kind transactions, according to the proposal, which may affect all investors across the $6.8 trillion U.S. exchange-traded fund industry. The plan aims to crack down on the financial institutions that bypass capital gains taxes. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/democratic-plan-would-close-tax-break-on-exchange-traded-funds/ar-AAOwqNf If these laws are passed tax savings from ETFs would disappear, and we probably wouldn't have as many proposals for crypto based ETFs in the USA. |
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For those who will maintain their macro crypto exposure, but must allocate amongst various coins, the coins that outperform will probably be Metaverse, Play-2-Earn, or NFT-related. I'm wondering why metaverse is receiving so much hype, despite not having progressed past being a vaporware product. This is one angle that comes to mind. Elon Musk said Neuralink hopes to start implanting its brain chips in humans in 2022, later than he anticipatedElon Musk has said that Neuralink, his brain-interface technology company, hopes to start implanting its microchips in human beings next year. Neuralink, cofounded by Musk in 2016, is developing a chip that would be implanted in people's brains to simultaneously record and stimulate brain activity. It is intended to have medical applications such as treating serious spinal cord injuries and neurological disorders. During a live-streamed interview at The Wall Street Journal CEO Council Summit on Monday, Musk was asked what Neuralink planned to do in 2022. Musk said: "Neuralink's working well in monkeys and we're actually doing just a lot of testing and just confirming that it's very safe and reliable and the Neuralink device can be removed safely." He added: "We hope to have this in our first humans — which will be people that have severe spinal cord injuries like tetraplegics, quadriplegics — next year, pending FDA approval." https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/elon-musk-said-neuralink-hopes-to-start-implanting-its-brain-chips-in-humans-in-2022-later-than-he-anticipated/ar-AARywTf There have not been many new developments in virtual reality. Elon Musk's neuralink brain implant could someday progress to becoming a jack in point to the internet (or matrix). Which would coincide with a VR landscape. I'm wondering if the hype is related to neuralink developments. Or if there is another angle aside from basic finance that could fuel the hype. |
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Las Vegas was constructed atop cheap land located in a desert region. Its success hinges upon snatching up large segments of real estate at rock bottom prices. Which later greatly appreciated in value.
Attempting the opposite strategy in new york, an area with highest priced, real estate in the country, has a few pros and cons. I think the only advantage is the many wealthy residents in the area. Everything else is a negative. New york was one of the first US states to outright ban tether, if I remember correctly. NY has a reputation for being unfriendly towards cryptocurrencies. US states like texas and florida are much friendlier for crypto users. El salvador might do very well with this approach, if they can fulfill their promise of bitcoin city having no income, property, capital gains or payroll tax.
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Normally, we might discuss whether revenues are better handled by free markets or governments. That would be a typical go to framework for discussing topics like taxes. It seems those social norms have largely been dispensed with. The discussion framework that appears most acceptable today, is one resembling social darwinism. Where people do what they think they can get away with, and hopefully its survival of the fittest which will hopefully benefit human evolution and society. If states want to tax casinos at 90% profits, its ok. The fittest will survive. While the unfittest may not be so fortunate. And I guess, that means everyone will be better off that way?
I don't know how else to rationalize the mentality most have, where they appear to believe 90% taxes are acceptable enough to become normalized. Someone please explain it to me, if you can.
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