With the next auction of DPR's 50,000BTC coming up in March I expect most of the coins to be sold much lower than market price and I also expect a huge dump after the coins from the auctions are dispersed. We may even see sub $150 coins at that time. I highly doubt any good positive gains until at least a few weeks after the auction. Most people won't take that chance of getting dumped on.
auction will be a non-event. nothing will happen at all. Please explain. |
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If they want to sell those Bitcoins, then let them go to the exchanges and sell try to sell them, but the community as a whole, including the exchanges should treat those Bitcoins like 'dirty' Bitcoins and have NOTHING to do with them, and not trade them... because after all, aren't they dirty Bitcoins?
So you would rather the 50k coins be dumped onto a exchange in 1 day? What do you think that will do for the price? I would get to buy a shitload of coins for very cheap, that's what would happen. As for the other people talking about the government having to buy back the bitcoins if he was to be innocent or anything in that regards, that's simply not true. They would, if anything, be forced to give the dollar amount of the goods back to Ulbricht. I'm no lawyer but I'm pretty sure in the USA any dispute taken to the US courts can be settled in USD per court order rather than the goods that are in question. --No that is not legal advice. |
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With the next auction of DPR's 50,000BTC coming up in March I expect most of the coins to be sold much lower than market price and I also expect a huge dump after the coins from the auctions are dispersed. We may even see sub $150 coins at that time. I highly doubt any good positive gains until at least a few weeks after the auction. Most people won't take that chance of getting dumped on.
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3D MACD went green again, which hasn't happened since November 2014. This time starting out with more volume. We will have to see if the (MACD - Signal line) grows at a faster rate than the November 2014 event (which was flat for too long). If it grows quickly I expect the next growth phase to start (queue bears), however if the MACD-Sig once again grows slowly I expect a drop to the low 200's or high 100's ($170-200 area).
Place your bets gentlemen.
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News 2/17/15The banking industry’s biggest cyber fearsCybercriminals have stolen up to $1 billion since late 2013 from banks across 30 countries, including the U.S., Russia, Europe and China, a computer security company says in the latest report to draw a red circle around the financial sector as a vulnerable target for hackers.
The majority of brokerages (88%) and financial advisers (74%) said they “have experienced cyberattacks directly or through one or more of their vendors.” But only a small portion of the more than 100 firms surveyed — 15% of broker dealers and 9% of advisers — guarantee they’ll reimburse clients for losses related to a cyberattack, the Securities and Exchange Commission found.
--88% of brokerages have been victim of cyberattacks, only 15% admitted that they will guarantee funds lost to attacks --74% of financial advisers have experienced attacks. 9% gaurantee funds. Peachy Greece intends to ask for extension Wednesday, says official Greece will seek an extension to its loan agreement from the rest of the eurozone Wednesday, an official with knowledge of the situation said...
The Greek government has so far insisted that budget cuts and economic overhauls mandated by the current rescue deal are hurting its economy and society and that the currency union’s finance ministers haven’t offered sufficient leeway on implementing those measures.
--Sounds like a rumor to me. I'm not 100% convinced that all the sudden Tsipras will reconsider the extension without a restructuring of their debt. 7 charts that suggest the rising stock market may be wrongBut as the above chart, joined by the following charts, shows, investors often ignore disappointing economic information as a bull market progresses, just as they did before the previous two recessions. And when market prices just start building rapidly on themselves, without a strong economic platform or continued stimulus from the Federal Reserve, the market bubble that is created should eventually pop
--Retail sales are down, many commodities are down, corporate profits are down (post-tax), hourly wages for production workers are down, personal consumption expenditures (leaving out food and gas) are down which may or may not be signalling more deflation (which is terrible in fiat based currencies and leads to bankruptcy)
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If we currently have 2,000,000 Bitcoin users and the world population is about 8 billion then this would be marking the end of the Innovator stage and the beginning of the Early Adopters. Cheers!
Not sure whether this number of bitcoin users is reliable assumption, but anyway 2 millions out of 8 billions is 0.025% not 2.5%. Nice thread btw. I'm sure there's much more quotes of this sort. Found this article (from 2011): http://www.thinkadvisor.com/2011/11/11/top-10-terrible-predictions-about-economyWhoops! Thank you for the core correction. I'll have to check the article out tonight on my PC |
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Best Necro of 2015 thus far. |
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Found a quote from that article that I like: http://www.ou.edu/deptcomm/dodjcc/groups/99A2/theories.htmInnovators are eager to try new ideas, to the point where their venturesomeness almost becomes an obsession. Innovators’ interest in new ideas leads them out of a local circle of peers and into social relationships more cosmopolite than normal. Usually, innovators have substantial financial resources, and the ability to understand and apply complex technical knowledge. While others may consider the innovator to be rash or daring, it is the hazardous risk-taking that is of salient value to this type of individual.
 If we currently have 2,000,000 Bitcoin users and the world population is about 8 billion then this would be marking the end of the Innovator stage and the beginning of the Early Adopters. Cheers! |
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Following. Nice methodology. Sometimes when you cannot observe the stuff directly, it is indeed valuable to construct the distribution solely based on theory, maths and bounds. Otherwise you have nothing to play with, and obviously something is better than nothing, if you know the limits of the something. My current understanding of the number of bitcoin owners is in the ballpark of 2-5 million (many services report that many wallets), but when we put this into the Gini perspective, the results show that only about 100k own a meaningful amount. In Satoshi Roundtable, my closing comment was that Bitcoin early adopter period (usually defined as the first 0.1%-2.5% of the eventual adoption of the technology) is hopefully about to begin in 2015 ( innovator stage of the 0-0.1% being soon fulfilled  ) Don't you think that the innovators are the first 2.5%? Currently we are at about 0.025% if we say there are 2 million users with 8 billion people worldwide. Something like this is my only real reference: http://www.ou.edu/deptcomm/dodjcc/groups/99A2/theories.htm but I'd love to hear more of your opinion on the matter. Following. |
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That reminds me that i need to buy some more coins today. Thanks!
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Negative interest rates are pretty cool and all. However I want to see even more fiat accounting innovation.
We aren't using the whole complex plane here people! Imaginary interest rates are the next big thing, you heard it here first .
Next step will be directly confiscating money from accounts: -10% interest means your money at banks get a hair cut by 10% Obviously, if they print more money, there will be more deflation (more money means more debt, thus more austerity and less spending), a low inflation rate will make banks keep printing until they bought every assets out there How do you figure if more money is printed that leads to deflation? FED print 100 dollar, and bought 100 dollar worth of government bonds, and then government have 100 dollar to spend. However, they must make back that 100 dollar plus interest, means the total money in the society will lose $2 when they return that 102 dollar to central bank. So, for each 100 dollar FED print and retrieve, the society as a whole will lose 2 dollar, a temporary stimulation is followed by a even deeper deflation due to less money to spend in future Even there is no interest charged, this temporary stimulation will increase the incoming and spending of the society for a while, but when it stopped, people are staying at a much higher living cost of everything, with same amount of money in society, thus quickly fall back into recession The only way out of this deflation spiral is to expand the debt forever exponentially, but then the ballooning interest cost will cut more and more into the income and eventually income will start to shrink no matter how much more debt is raised I don't think I agree with this. If the $100 is printed and we now owe $102 to the fed, then we have even more money printed to pay our debts back and this cycle repeats. Yes debt forever increases (and at a faster rate than the money supply), but all of this printing leads to inflation (dollar becomes cheaper and it takes more of them to buy the same good)...It's only if we stop printing that we would start to have deflation and economic collapse. Please tell me if I'm wrong or missing something. Found a quote from that article that i like Innovators are eager to try new ideas, to the point where their venturesomeness almost becomes an obsession. Innovators’ interest in new ideas leads them out of a local circle of peers and into social relationships more cosmopolite than normal. Usually, innovators have substantial financial resources, and the ability to understand and apply complex technical knowledge. While others may consider the innovator to be rash or daring, it is the hazardous risk-taking that is of salient value to this type of individual.
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Is normal. Fiat is physical and needs storage and that cost money.
usually banks invest people's money to get even more money. They don't just sit and hodl it. They're earning by giving you 4% per year interest on savings, and then giving me loans at 10% per year interest. No work, no money, and they earn 6% of the base savings, thats what theyre doing, and god forbid that state intervenes and gives bussines loans without interest to those that want to break free of slavery and start their own bussines. cheers 4% interest on savings? 10% interest on loans? Where do you live? |
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I'm officially the top 3 in Bitcoin holdings now.
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Token would be the QR code for a small amount of bitcoin of which are swept into your own wallet. I think this is a very good idea OP.
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Very cool project. I'll be buying one if the price drops a bit.
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Negative interest rates are pretty cool and all. However I want to see even more fiat accounting innovation.
We aren't using the whole complex plane here people! Imaginary interest rates are the next big thing, you heard it here first .
Next step will be directly confiscating money from accounts: -10% interest means your money at banks get a hair cut by 10% Obviously, if they print more money, there will be more deflation (more money means more debt, thus more austerity and less spending), a low inflation rate will make banks keep printing until they bought every assets out there How do you figure if more money is printed that leads to deflation? |
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News 2/12/15China to state companies: No profit growth, no pay raiseSASAC notified centrally administered SOEs on Feb. 9 that they “must not increase the total amount of salaries” if their profit target this year is lower than last year’s profits It's all about profit and shareholders nowadays, even in these chinese government sponsored companies, which should really be more worried about at least creating products that industries need that potentially could not be handled by the private sector on its own... One big fear with a strong dollar: a stock market bubble“We are already at the level where stocks are simply expensive. If markets rise from this level significantly due to foreign demand or lack of alternatives - this will form a bubble,” Smith said. Article talks about already having 4% growth this year, compared to a total of about 9% stock market growth last year. Anyone know any stats about stock price acceleration before a bubble bursts? I assume that the burst occurs just as the acceleration (instantaneous rate of change of price) occurs, but can anyone provide some numbers on this? It's been a while since I've busted out any calculus. Retail sales slump again, as Americans pocket savings at pumpYet retail sales excluding gas were still flat compared to December, a sign that Americans aren’t using their fuel bonanza to spend more on other goods and services. Instead they are saving more. Saving more? Or they owe it to their debtors?
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Good Find! I think Norway, Japan or the USA is next. |
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Buy ALL $219.95. New total bitcoins: 0.40816
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Sell all at $222.99 math to follow.
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