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521  Economy / Economics / Re: Consumers to Spend More on Black Friday Despite Economic Downturn on: November 08, 2022, 11:15:38 PM
Eras of high inflation are the opposite of HODL economics. Everyone dumps their currency holdings as soon as possible, expecting the asset to decrease in value. If high inflation is on the way. It makes sense to buy as much as you can in the biggest sales of the year. To maximize purchasing power and stock up in the event of future shortages.

It will be interesting to see what the purchasing breakdown of black friday sales look like in 2022. Are consumers purchasing luxury items or focusing more on bare necessities. It would be gratifying if solar panels, guns, water filters, solar stoves and similar items were flying off the shelves as people prepare for economic worst case scenarios.

It has long been known that electronics and store bought items are purchased as inflation protection assets. The behavior was first noticed during greece's issues with debt when many exchanged their euros for big screen TVs expecting the EU to go bust.
522  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Can roullete be rigged? on: November 08, 2022, 10:44:10 PM
Roulette tables have been rigged in pop culture fiction. Movies and TV series have depicted there being an electromagnetic positioned underneath the roulette wheel which pulls the roulette ball in a direction to rig games.

Aside from that, I can't remember allegations or accusations of roulette being rigged anywhere. It is possible that roulette is one of the more fair casino games out there. Roulette has a very good reputation. Which is part of the reason why they are so popular for gamblers and have survived for so long inside casinos.
523  Economy / Economics / Majority of Americans Back New Stimulus Checks To Combat Inflation on: November 07, 2022, 11:50:26 PM
Quote
A majority of Americans support the idea of new stimulus checks to combat inflation, according to a poll conducted exclusively for Newsweek.

The survey found 63 percent of respondents said they agree—with 42 percent saying they "strongly agree"—when asked if the federal government should issue new stimulus checks to tackle inflation.

Eighteen percent of respondents disagreed, while 15 percent said they neither agree nor disagree. Three percent said they do not know in response to the question.

The poll, conducted by Redfield & Wilton Strategies between October 23 and 24, surveyed 1,500 eligible voters in the U.S.

Inflation and economic concerns have been key issues for Americans as they begin voting in midterm elections, where Democrats' control of Congress is at stake.

Inflation reached a higher than expected rate of 8.2 percent in September, and Republicans have heaped blame on President Joe Biden and congressional Democrats for the skyrocketing prices that American households across the country are grappling with.

Democrats got a boost earlier this week as the economy grew at a 2.6 percent annual rate from July through September, giving the Federal Reserve room to continue aggressively raising borrowing costs to combat inflation.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned in August that the Fed's hikes will bring "pain" to households and businesses, but said "a failure to restore price stability would mean far greater pain."

And while some states have been sending out direct payments to help struggling Americans, economists have argued that stimulus checks could make inflation worse rather than better.

"In this economic environment, stimulus checks cause inflation, they do not reduce it," Diana Furchtgott-Roth, a scholar at The Heritage Foundation and former chief economist for the Department of Labor, told Newsweek.

"This is because America has 10 million job openings that need to be filled. This drives up the cost of labor as employers compete for workers. It makes goods more expensive because firms are producing less than they prefer. It makes services more expensive because service-providing organizations, such as restaurants, hotels and airline companies cannot provide all the services that consumers demand."

Furchtgott-Roth said prior stimulus payments had "encouraged people to stay home and reduced their incentive to take a job."

"The labor force participation rate is about one percentage point below its pre-pandemic level because more people are staying home," she said.

"America already has 3 to 4 million people fewer working than would be the case if it had the same labor force participation rate as in January 2020. The last thing that America needs as Chairman Powell tries to fight inflation is more stimulus payments."



https://www.newsweek.com/majority-americans-back-stimulus-checks-inflation-poll-1755636


....


It has been longer than 24 hours since I proposed crypto having the potential to solve everything ranging from inflation to indigestion. I'm long overdue for crypto being used to fill gaps in income which are traditionally filled by stimulus checks. How might it work. We already have crypto alternatives to UBI which could be applied to stimulus programs. Concepts of free money and free value being so extremely popular in this day and age. Isn't it surprising that we lack a greater abundance of proposals for solving issues like wage deterioration and inflation? If Elon Musk can build electric cars and buy twitter, certainly someone out there must have a good idea of how to address reduction of consumer buying power in relation to rising inflation.

Simulus checks (Milton Friedman called them helicopter drops) are near to 100 year old technology. If most people wouldn't drive a car that was built 100 years ago. Knowing that modern society offers better options. Perhaps its realistic to say that we should also have good modern options for handling things like inflation. The lack of invention and innovation in these areas could mean we're long overdue for a big leap forward. There is a high potential for innovation in the field, which could translate to material and monetary gains for the person who invents it.

Do the majority of people support additional stimulus checks btw. I always have to ask. Its difficult to tell where public opinion stands.
524  Economy / Economics / Re: Do your work. on: November 07, 2022, 11:33:45 PM
While there certainly is risk in business and investment. The biggest risk of all could be not making an effort to multiply assets of wealth. While fear of failure is a concern for many. Fear of not trying and missing out on becoming an early adopter of good opportunities, could be a more valid thing to be afraid of.

In terms of scenarios surrounding living wages and retirement. Its difficult to imagine a case where a person is able to retire without a plan to multiply their holdings. While business and investment are generally considered alternative options. Given statistics relating to retirement, they could in fact be necessities for retiring at all.

Correlation between risk and reward imply amassing the most risk is the best strategy for wealth accumulation. The only difference between Elon Musk and gambling addicts being one uses sound guidance and strategy in selecting the risks they choose to shoulder. While the other is more impulsive and emotional about their own risks.
525  Economy / Economics / Amazon says it has over a thousand Rivian electric vans making deliveries in US on: November 07, 2022, 10:38:05 PM
Quote
Amazon’s fleet of Rivian-made electric delivery vans is growing. Since first rolling out earlier this year, the retail giant’s new zero-tailpipe emission vehicles have made more than 5 million deliveries in the US, with its fleet-size exceeding 1,000 EDVs (electric delivery vans).

That’s still only a fraction of the company’s overall transportation fleet, which is comprised 30,000 Amazon-branded delivery vehicles and 20,000 branded trailers. But the electric-portion is growing, with Rivian eventually expecting to deliver 100,000 vans to the company.

Starting in July, the EDVs first rolled out in Baltimore, Chicago, Dallas, Nashville, San Diego, and Seattle. Since then, they’ve been put into service in a bunch of new cities, including Austin, Boston, Denver, Houston, Indianapolis, Las Vegas, Madison, Newark, New York, Oakland, Pittsburgh, Portland, Provo, and Salt Lake City.

The vans have been making their way into Amazon’s service, as Rivian’s manufacturing pace slowly accelerates. The EV company said it made 7,363 R1T pickup trucks, R1S SUVs, and EDVs during the three-month period that ended on September 30 — though it didn’t say how much of each. Rivian also said it delivered 6,584 vehicles during the same span. (The company is expected to report its third quarter earnings later this week.)

Of course, supply chain woes and inflation, as well as other hurdles, have conspired to stymie Amazon and Rivian’s goals of an electrified delivery fleet. When then-CEO Jeff Bezos announced a deal with the EV startup in 2019 to buy 100,000 vans, he said they should be on the road by 2024. Now, Amazon projects to hit 100,000 vans on the road by 2030.

“We’re always excited for the holiday season, but making deliveries to customers across the country with our new zero-emission vehicles for the first time makes this year unique,” said Udit Madan, vice president of Amazon Transportation. “We’ve already delivered over 5 million packages with our vehicles produced by Rivian, and this is still just the beginning—that figure will grow exponentially as we continue to make progress toward our 100,000-vehicle goal.”


https://www.theverge.com/2022/11/7/23443995/amazon-rivian-electric-delivery-van-fleet-ev


....


Amazon purchasing cargo aircraft and ships to reduce shipping costs and circumvent supply chain disruptions has been publicized for some time now.

Quote
Amazon is making its own containers and bypassing supply chain chaos with chartered ships and long-haul planes

December 4 2021

For years, Amazon has been quietly chartering private cargo ships, making its own containers, and leasing planes to better control the complicated shipping journey of an online order. Now, as many retailers panic over supply chain chaos, Amazon’s costly early moves are helping it avoid the long wait times for available dock space and workers at the country’s busiest ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/04/how-amazon-beats-supply-chain-chaos-with-ships-and-long-haul-planes.html

Here we see the latest installment of amazon striving to insulate its shipping costs from rising fossil fuel and diesel prices: a fleet of more than 1,000 electric vans. (Projected to hit 100,000 electric vans by 2030)

The media has always been fond of covering ways in which large corporations typically have large advantages over smaller businesses. Here we see yet another prime example of it. As the world enters crisis and issues develop, people will generally seek alternatives. It is possible in the future amazon will seek to acquire electric cargo planes and wind faring ships to compliment its electric vans. Thanks to recent fuel prices, there are many plans in motion to construct sail based, wind powered ships for cargo shipping purposes.

526  Economy / Gambling discussion / Mattress Mack wins $75 million as Houston Astros claim World Series title on: November 07, 2022, 10:25:11 PM
Quote
CNN — “Mattress Mack” had reason to celebrate the Houston Astros’ World Series win on Saturday – and not just because he’s an Astros superfan.

Houston furniture store owner Jim McIngvale, known as “Mattress Mack,” made a series of bets amounting to $10 million on the Astros to win the World Series.

And when his team won the franchise’s second World Series title with a 4-2 victory against the Philadelphia Phillies, McIngvale took home $75 million – widely reported to be the largest payout in the history of sports betting.

“This last week has been especially… beyond words,” McIngvale said in a statement on social media, where he also posted a photo of himself with a suitcase full of cash.

McIngvale told CNN last year that he made the huge wagers on a potential World Series title for the Astros to cover another gamble of sorts: customers who bought certain mattresses costing $3,000 or more will get their money back if the Astros win.

He told FOX 26 on Saturday that the $75 million will mostly be paid out to customers as part of the Gallery Furniture chain’s promotion.

“The Astros did all the work, all I did was bet the money,” McIngvale said.

The 71-year-old is famous for the huge bets he has placed on sports games over the years – including a $3.35 million stake placed in June 2021 on the Astros winning last year’s World Series – and was filmed celebrating wildly during his team’s championship-winning game at Minute Maid Park.

In the Houston community, McIngvale is well known in for his charitable work, turning his stores into shelters to help people displaced by severe weather events, such as Hurricane Harvey.

“I’m so proud to be part of this city and will ALWAYS stand up for what’s right … [and] will always do my best to act QUICKLY and on the side of the people,” he added in his statement.

McIngvale also threw out the first pitch ahead of Saturday’s game, which he described as “an honor.”

The Astros’ 4-1 win against the Phillies was the first time since 2013 that a team has claimed the World Series title at its home field.


https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/06/sport/mattress-mack-houston-astros-world-series-spt-intl/index.html


....


As a business man who sells furniture, he offered to refund the cost of every mattress over $3,000 customers bought, if the astros won the world series. Funded by proceeds generated by his gambling wagers on the astros to win. That has to be a unique business and gambling strategy. There's a common theme that says its not a good practice to mix business and pleasure. But apparently some get to have their cake and eat it.

Will this man's success spawn a number of copycats. Will mom and pop stores begin to offer incentives and rewards for customers if their NFL team wins the superbowl?

If the trend gains traction, it might even spillover into cryptocurrency. Free NFTs for all if the Golden State Warriors win the championship in 2023.

While it might sound silly and simple. It is possible that these types of hail mary business and gambling ventures could be profitable win or lose. Rewards and incentives offers could boost business by a good percentage which would more than cover the cost of wagers. Winning bets would be leveraged which would make it easier for cost margins to cover. It is possible to structure both sides to guarantee a win/win scenario for everyone. Except perhaps casinos should they have to payout.
527  Economy / Economics / Re: German gas giant has lost 93% of its value or 14.1 billion euros this year on: November 05, 2022, 01:37:26 PM
Uniper (UN01.DE) reported a record 40 billion euro ($39.3 billion) net loss in the first nine months of this year, the biggest in German corporate history, after Russia stopped its supplies.
Since the start of the year shares in Uniper have lost 93% of their value, giving it a current market value of 1.1 billion euros, down from 15.2 billion euros on Jan. 3.


During the 2008 economic crisis, there were bank stocks which had declined more than 93% in value down to $0.03.

Which a few weeks later were worth $3.00 after the bank bailout bill (TARP) had been announced.

Imagine a stock appreciating from $0.03 to $3.00 within the span of a few weeks for a cool 100x gain.

People ask how recession and economic crisis can be profitable. Price volatility of assets tends to shift massively during crisis and recession.

Assets that were once deemed "stable" fluctuate wildly. Which might contribute to potential gains (and losses in unfortunate cases).

Did anyone notice that the stock market is experiencing considerably more volatility than bitcoin is atm.

Where are "bitcoin is too volatile" critics now? Strangely silent aren't they. I doubt they care if stocks have more volatility than bitcoin in 2022. But if they did care, they might find it remarkable.
528  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: The History of the Roulette Game on: November 04, 2022, 10:54:50 PM
I wish someone would closely examine and test a roulette wheel from a science and mathematical perspective.

They could have physical defects and imperfections which would result in them repeating some results more consistently than others. It could be interesting to know if that is true and what the margin for statistical prediction is.

If there is temperature fluctuation between day and night cycles, the roulette wheel could contract and expand due to thermal expansion and contraction. Red and black segments could have some very slight temperature variation between them. The wood grain pattern of the wheel might influence movement of the ball.

It would be interesting to know if many small variables and deterministic phenomena could be compiled to produce a working predictive model of where the ball is likely to land.

Isn't it interesting how gambling on a low level is associated with impulsive behavior and addiction. While gambling on a high level could be associated more with math, science and logic.
529  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: How are Online casino's and sports betting platforms coping? on: November 04, 2022, 10:28:06 PM
How do you think online casinos and sports betting platforms are adjusting to manage the situation?


The obvious pivot would be to cater more to high income bracket clientale. Demographics with high income margins where disposable income will not be significantly affected by rising food or fuel costs.

A second more desperate move would be to shutter physical brick and mortar locations to cut lease costs and focus more on internet business.

Lake Mead drying up in Vegas could force casinos there to seek to establish a new US city or state as the de facto gambling headquarters in the country.

But if we're being honest profit margins for many casinos are so large that they will not necessarily need to adjust or change their business to maintain profitability as the global gambling industry is expected to grow, or at a bare minimum, sustain itself.
530  Economy / Economics / TSMC says efforts to rebuild US semiconductor industry are doomed to fail on: November 03, 2022, 11:58:45 PM
Quote
Apple supplier TSMC believes that US efforts to rebuild chip manufacturing at home are doomed to fail, as it finds itself caught between China and the United States in a tech cold war.
Morris Chang founded TSMC in 1987 when Taiwan recruited him from the US to help build an electronics industry. The contract manufacturer rose to become the top chipmaker in the world, commanding 20% of global wafer fabrication and 92% of advanced chip capacity.

US share in global chip manufacturing shrunk from 37% in 1990 to 12% in 2020, but the country wants to regain its dominance. In particular, US Department of Defense is worried that the country's dependence on Taiwan could put chip supplies for the defense industry at risk.

In response, President Biden signed the CHIPS Act into law on August 9, 2022. It provides over $52 billion to help US companies build new semiconductor facilities, fund research, and expand existing manufacturing.

Taiwan isn't happy about the move because it sees its semiconductor dominance as a "silicon shield." The government believes that if China were to attack the country, the US would come to its aid to prevent China from seizing the industry.

When US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in August, she met with Morris Chang and Mark Liu, chair of TSMC. Chang told Pelosi that Washington's efforts to rebuild its chip manufacturing were doomed to fail, according to Taiwan's Financial Times.

But the United States may not have much choice. Analysts at investment bank Credit Suisse have estimated that if the world loses access to Taiwan's chip plants, it will disrupt the production for everything from computers to cars.

Apple would be impacted too, as it relies heavily on TSMC for chip production. While it has expanded some of its manufacturing to other countries such as Vietnam and India, those moves do not diversify Apple's chip supply at all.

Still, TSMC remains a major supplier for Apple and other companies, and its future between the US and China is uncertain.

"The monopoly in semiconductor production creates instability," said Brad Martin, director of the National Security Supply Chain Institute at the Rand Corporation. "If the US is faced with a need to make a decision between protecting its economy and defending Taiwan, that starts to become a very stark decision."

TSMC has made some efforts to help the US by planning a semiconductor facility in Arizona, the first such chip facility it will develop outside of its home country. TSMC expects it will reach its production start in early 2024.


https://appleinsider.com/articles/22/10/24/tsmc-says-efforts-to-rebuild-us-semiconductor-industry-are-doomed-to-fail


....


I would be interested to know how public opinion views this content.

It seems that semiconductor supply chains needed for US manufacturing will be further throttled due to conflict between china and the united states.

When supply chain disruptions first arose in 2020, Elon Musk considered buying a semiconductor foundry to produce tesla semiconductors in house. Unfortunately the high price tag of a semiconductor foundry, small margins, and long start up period discouraged Elon from taking this route. And he opted to buy twitter instead.

Semiconductor mass production appears to be an extremely difficult industry to tackle from an engineering and business perspective. Is it fair to say a future forecast for semiconductor shortages is likely. Or will production ramp up on a global scale to meet demand, in a way that will make all of these discussions moot within 5 years.
531  Economy / Economics / Re: CBDCs are like a digital prison but Bitcoin is the key on: November 03, 2022, 11:48:36 PM
I think one big question for CBDC which has not been addressed is how the state would propose to implement CBDC inflation protection.

Bitcoin has built in protections against inflation through it being a deflationary asset. However CBDC would not appear to have any mechanism which might achieve something similar.

Public trust for CBDC will not be high if CBDC will achieve high inflation as digital fiat currency 2.0.

I would be interested to see poll data on CBDC for generation Z as it is entirely possible that bitcoin polls higher than CBDC for today's youth.

The largest viewer demographic for CNN and television news is the 40 and higher age demographic. It is possible that middle aged to elderly demographics will be the largest supporters of CBDC, while the youth demographic is dominated by support for bitcoin and cryptocurrency.
532  Economy / Economics / Re: Is long-term employee retention a losing battle? on: November 03, 2022, 11:41:22 PM
I think the stage is being set for people to become more motivated to learn about economics, business and finance.

Failing to comprehend basic fundamentals of business makes workers powerless in this world. To earn their fair share and maintain a stable working environment, workers must understand what is happening in order to make the right choices and support the right things. Unfortunately, in many cases workers do not recognize the trends and precedents in play. Which leads to them supporting the wrong people and things.

As recession sets in and standards of living decline. It could provide people with incentive to acquire knowledge. Prior to 2020 there was no need for people to care about business or finance. There was no motivation to learn.

Now that people are being directly affected by it, their attitude and mentality could shift. They could suddenly start to care about and appreciate many of the things they took for granted.

I think we're already observing this to a degree. People used to be completely apathetic and lackidaisical on the topic of politics. Suddenly everyone cares about politics, as it is directly impacting their lives. The same precedent could apply to business and finance.
533  Economy / Economics / Re: Philippines First Regulated Bank for its Cryptocurrency and Trading services. on: November 03, 2022, 11:15:06 PM
The most important feature clients search for in banks is reliable account insurance and fraud protection. In the united states banks carry FDIC insurance which in theory provides protection up to more than $50,000 in losses. Protection against bank runs and withdrawal limits are also a plus in times of economic uncertainty. Not all banks are created equal in these areas. High risk investment banks can often carry smaller margins for error. While low risk banks can retain greater stability and reliability in times of recession and inflation.

Foreign nations like the philippines can have banks which lack basic insurance protection on accounts. A negative condition which regulation has not done much to address.
534  Economy / Economics / Re: Brexit: Rejoining EU takes record 14-point lead in latest poll on: November 03, 2022, 09:27:09 AM
So you expect them being actually pro-US after all those sanctions? "No hard feelings"?  Cheesy
No. I don't expect them ever been in the "anti russian front"; at least not for real.


Democrats in the united states are the biggest supporters for war with russia and everything anti Putin.

Democrats were also the most unhappy demographic when irans general soleimani was killed.

You can try to reconcile these two observations, if you like.
535  Economy / Economics / Re: Brexit: Rejoining EU takes record 14-point lead in latest poll on: November 03, 2022, 08:53:32 AM
So Iran is pretty much the most sanctioned country (maybe after Russia, now) and you're surprised that Iran is doing all they can to enrage USA? Wow.


Do you remember when iran's general soleimani was killed.

Which public figures were most unhappy about general soleimani's fate? If you thought about it, you might realize those most unhappy about soleimani are those who support war with russia the most. Which made it appear anti russian forces and iran were allied during that era.

Somewhere along the line, iran may have abandoned the anti russian front. To join russia.



Maybe I'm wrong. But from what I know, even China (and Turkiye too) advised Putin calm down and stop the madness. And imho it makes sense, because Russia showing weakness means the (war) power shifting from RU+CN (plus maybe TR) towards US (plus maybe EU). Friends? Maybe. But only with (if) huge benefits.


Putin lacks an exit strategy. He cannot allow ukraine to embarrass him or make him appear to be weak.

China and others advising Putin is pointless, unless they can offer him a way out of the war which allows Putin to maintain his public image.
536  Economy / Economics / Amazon stock sinks 13% on weak fourth-quarter guidance on: November 02, 2022, 11:47:03 PM
Quote

  • Amazon reported third-quarter results on Thursday that missed analysts’ estimates.
  • It also gave a disappointing sales forecast for the fourth quarter.
  • The stock sunk in extended trading.

Amazon shares plummeted 13% in extended trading on Thursday after the company issued a disappointing fourth-quarter forecast and missed on revenue estimates.

Here are the key numbers:

  • Earnings: 28 cents per share
  • Revenue: $127.10 billion vs. $127.46 billion, according to Refinitiv estimates

Here’s how the other key Amazon segments did during the quarter:

  • Amazon Web Services: $20.5 billion vs. $21.1 billion expected, according to StreetAccount
  • Advertising: $9.55 billion vs. $9.48 billion expected, according to StreetAccount

Amazon said it expects to post fourth-quarter revenue between $140 billion and $148 billion, representing year-over-year growth of 2% to 8%. Analysts were expecting sales to come in at $155.15 billion, according to Refinitiv.

Revenue grew 15% in the third quarter, marking a return to double-digit sales expansion, but it still fell short of Wall Street’s projections.

Like the rest of Big Tech, Amazon has had a rocky year so far as it confronts macroeconomic headwinds, soaring inflation and rising interest rates. Those challenges have coincided with a slowdown in Amazon’s core retail business, as consumers returned to shopping in stores.

It’s the second time this year Amazon’s results have been disappointing enough to spark a double-digit percentage selloff. In April, a weak forecast for the second quarter led to a 14% drop in the stock.

Under CEO Andy Jassy, who took the helm from founder Jeff Bezos in July 2021, Amazon has responded to rising expenses by aggressively cutting costs across numerous divisions in recent months. It shed warehouse space, halted some experimental projects, shuttered its telehealth service and froze hiring for corporate roles in its retail business.

“There is obviously a lot happening in the macroeconomic environment,” Jassy said in the press release. “And we’ll balance our investments to be more streamlined without compromising our key long-term, strategic bets.”

Amazon CFO Brian Olsavsky said the company cut its capital expenditures budget for this year by a third after it spent heavily over the last two years on things like ramping its fulfillment and logistics network to meet pandemic-induced demand.

The company is now taking steps to “tighten our belt, including pausing hiring in certain businesses and winding down products and services where we believe our resources are better spent elsewhere,” Olsavsky said.

He added that the economic environment in Europe was worse in the quarter than in North America, because the “Ukraine war and the energy crisis issues have really compounded in that geography.”

Amazon’s gloomy forecast doesn’t bode well for the holiday shopping period. Analysts are already girding for a humdrum season, with online sales expected to grow just 2.5%, according to Adobe.

Amazon’s Prime Early Access Sale, held earlier this month, could help juice year-end sales. Data collected by third-party analysts signaled the event may have been lackluster, as shoppers feel the pressure of inflation. Jassy said in the release that customer response to the new discount event, and Prime Day, hosted in July, was “quite positive.”

Amazon is rounding out a disappointing earnings week for Big Tech. Alphabet and Facebook parent Meta both posted earnings that fell short of expectations as they navigate challenges in the digital ad market. Microsoft wasn’t immune, reporting softer-than-expected cloud revenue and weak quarterly guidance.

Apple, which also reported on Thursday, beat on earnings and revenue but came up short in core product categories including the iPhone business and the services unit. The stock is trading lower after hours.

Operating income at Amazon fell by almost half from a year earlier to $2.53 billion from $4.85 billion. Amazon Web Services accounted for all of the company’s profit, plus some, as the cloud unit generated operating income of $5.4 billion. Still, AWS posted the slowest revenue growth since 2014, when Amazon began breaking out results for the unit.

Amazon’s advertising business was one bright spot in the results, bucking the trend of its digital ad peers Facebook, Google and Snap, whose ads businesses have gotten whacked due to the economic environment and Apple’s iOS privacy changes last year. Ad revenue surged 25% year over year to $9.55 billion during the quarter, which handily topped analysts’ estimates of $9.48 billion.

Analysts have taken different approaches to their per-share earnings estimates because of Amazon’s hefty investment in electric-vehicle maker Rivian, which went public late last year. Amazon reported net income of $2.9 billion in the third quarter, which includes a gain of $1.1 billion in non-operating income from its Rivian stake. In the prior two quarters, the Rivian investment resulted in total markdowns of $11.5 billion.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/27/amazon-amzn-earnings-q3-2022.html


....


Free shipping was arguably the biggest advantage amazon enjoyed over other internet retailers.

With the advent of rising fossil fuel and shipping costs, amazon's free shipping deal with USPS appears to be decoupling. Many items which amazon previously sold with free shipping now have surcharges added to cover higher shipping costs. More restrictions have been imposed on items. With amazon's free shipping being on a decline, its advantages over retailers like walmart and local mom and pop stores are diminishing.

So it seems that some are getting the free markets they wanted through amazons free shipping deal decoupling from its original agreed upon terms. Amazon stock is dropping.

Could amazon's decline be the incentive it needs to adopt crypto support as a payment option. I think most would expect amazon to scramble to find ways to close the gaps in its revenue streams. With many CEOs in the world being paid $10,000 an hour wages, certainly that comes with job performance expectations.

Or perhaps amazon will lie down and take their loss of profit in a graceful and stoic manner. Crazier things have happened lately.
537  Economy / Economics / Biden Administration Wants To Make It Easier To Seize Crypto on: November 02, 2022, 11:25:12 PM
Quote
Buried deep in a 61-page recent report by the U.S. Attorney General, the Biden Administration called for a dramatic expansion in the federal government’s ability to seize and keep cryptocurrency. If enacted, the proposed changes would bolster both criminal forfeiture, which requires a conviction to permanently confiscate property, as well as civil forfeiture, which doesn’t require a conviction or even criminal charges to be filed.

Notably, the report’s release was coupled with the announcement of a new Digital Asset Coordinator Network. This nationwide network is staffed with more than 150 federal prosecutors who will be trained on “drafting civil and criminal forfeiture actions.”


Due to crypto’s pseudonymous nature, it’s sometimes assumed to be immune from government confiscation. But the reality is quite different. Last year, the U.S. Marshals—the custodians for Justice Department seizures—managed almost 200 cryptocurrency seizures worth $466 million.

Since fiscal 2014, the FBI, Secret Service, and Homeland Security Investigations have collectively seized almost $680 million worth of crypto (valued at the time of seizure), with hundreds of still active investigations involving digital assets. But even those amounts pale in comparison to IRS Criminal Investigation, which has confiscated a staggering $3.8 billion in virtual currency between fiscal 2018 and 2021.

Nevertheless, the Justice Department argued that crypto has “revealed limits on the forfeiture tools used” by federal law enforcement and recommended “several updates to existing law.” First, the Attorney General wants to broaden the most abusive form of civil forfeiture, which occurs without any independent or impartial judicial oversight.

Under “administrative” or “nonjudicial” forfeiture, the seizing agency—not a judge—decides whether a property should be forfeited. The federal government can use administrative forfeiture to take almost anything, aside from real estate and property valued at more than $500,000.

That $500,000 limit currently applies to cryptocurrency, but the Attorney General wants to “lift the $500,000 cap for cryptocurrency and other digital assets.” This would eliminate one of the very few limits on administrative forfeiture. Even if Congress refuses to act, thanks to a law enacted last year, the Secretary of the Treasury could simply end the cap by adopting new regulation.

This proposal is deeply concerning. Administrative forfeiture provides shockingly scant protection for property owners. After seizing property, the government need only send notice of an administrative forfeiture. If an owner fails to quickly file a claim for their own property, it’s automatically forfeited.


Since the seized property may be the owner’s most valuable asset, owners often don’t have the means to fight back. Yet even when a claim is filed, the owner still might not get their day in court. According to a report by the Institute for Justice, federal agencies have rejected more than one-third of all filed claims for seized cash as “deficient,” with most claims denied due to “technical reasons.”

Unsurprisingly, since administrative forfeiture cases are significantly easier for the government to win, administrative forfeitures accounted for almost 80% of all forfeitures conducted by the Department of Justice and 96% of the Treasury Department’s forfeiture activity.

Although the Justice Department praises administrative forfeiture for being “efficient” and for reducing “undue burdens” in the court system, in reality, administrative forfeiture has burdened the lives of thousands of victims who’ve done nothing wrong.

Just ask Ken Quran. After coming to America from the Middle East, he opened a small convenience store in Greenville, North Carolina. But in June 2014, IRS agents barged into his store and told Ken they had a warrant to seize $570,000 and had already seized every penny in his bank account—$153,907.99. That money was Ken’s entire life savings, earned over nearly 20 years of long hours running his business.

Less than three months later, Ken’s bank account was administratively forfeited. Without those savings, Ken was driven to the financial breaking point. He struggled to support his family, pay off his mortgage, and cover a line of credit he had to take out to keep his store afloat. Ken was never charged with a crime.


“I never believed this could happen in America,” Ken lamented. “I do not understand how, in this country, the government can take an honest businessman’s entire bank account without proving that he did something wrong.”

Fortunately, with help from the Institute for Justice, Ken later filed a “petition for remission or mitigation” (basically a pardon for forfeited property). After a media firestorm, in February 2016, the IRS agreed to return all of the money they had wrongfully taken from Ken. Although he lost fiat currency rather than crypto, as Ken’s story shows, there is absolutely no need to make administrative forfeiture easier to use.

In addition to expanding administrative forfeiture for crypto, the Justice Department “would welcome amendments to provide criminal and civil forfeiture authority for commodities-related violations.” Allowing criminal forfeiture after a conviction for fraud or manipulation in crypto markets would be a valuable tool to crack down on scammers.

Currently, most cryptocurrencies are considered commodities rather than securities. So under federal laws governing commodities, prosecutors can “charge fraud and manipulation in the cryptocurrency markets.” But unlike securities, those statutes “do not permit forfeiture of ill-gotten gains from criminal activity involving commodities.”

But extending civil forfeiture casts far too wide a net and would make it much more likely for innocent holders to lose their crypto to government confiscation. After all, civil forfeiture lacks a conviction requirement, unlike criminal forfeiture. Moreover, there is a direct financial incentive for federal agencies to pursue forfeiture cases: Once property has been forfeited (either civilly or criminally), the seizing federal agency can retain up to 100% of the proceeds.

Unfortunately, the proposed expansions in asset forfeiture are part of a broader assault on cryptocurrency, including attacks on the financial privacy cryptocurrency can otherwise afford. The Treasury Department’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) is currently considering a rule that would extend intrusive reporting requirements to custodial wallets (i.e. those managed by a third-party)—the same reporting requirements that led the IRS to seize Ken’s cash.

If adopted, the wallet’s host would have to send detailed reports to FinCEN for every transaction with an unhosted wallet over $10,000, including personal information like the names and physical addresses of both parties involved in the transaction. Since the blockchain is inherently public, a single report on a single transaction would effectively become a digital skeleton key, letting the federal government snoop on all of the wallet’s other transactions.

This is moving in precisely the wrong direction. No matter how the midterms shake out, Congress must reject the proposed crypto crackdown and rein in civil forfeiture.


https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicksibilla/2022/10/25/biden-administration-wants-to-make-it-easier-to-seize-crypto-without-criminal-charges/


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This type of search and seizure in the united states has been present for many years. I think the most public of these cases was the federal DEA raiding medical marijuana dispensaries in california to seize funds in excess of $100,000. It was a well publicized act for many years. But I think that most who heard about it happening, didn't truly understand what it meant at the time.

Now it appears that the state is taking steps to expand its search and seizures. A trend which began many years ago during peak anti terrorism years when search and seizure laws were expanded to a point where they often no longer needed a warrant. I think that may have occurred under the patriot act. Today we have many americans who say that police cannot search your vehicle or home without a warrant. Not realizing the patriot act changed laws to allow search of cars and homes with no warrant process. Surveillance also can now be conducted without a warrant.

Does anyone have a good crypto wallet they would like to recommend under these circumstances?
538  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Minimum deposit and minimum withdrawal. on: November 02, 2022, 10:55:28 PM
Someone with a strict budget of gambling with $10, decides to start online gambling after been told by a friend, but on signing up discovers that the minimum deposit accepted is above the amount budgetted for gambling. Does high minimum deposit fees from online casino discourage gamblers who want to stick to a budget and influences them to gamble with bigger amounts?


The concept of responsible gambling parallels responsible consumption of alcoholic beverages.

We are more prone to engaging in excess rather than moderation. Its human nature.


Does minimum withdrawal encourage players to try again and keep gambling if they don't win up to the minimum withdrawal?


Minimum deposit/withdrawal isn't something most gamblers will concern themselves with.

Chasing odds is a popular pastime. Losing gamblers will usually engage in comparison shopping to shave every advantage they can on wagers.

Bonuses, incentives and freebies are also popular.

The one area where minimum deposit and withdrawal could really matter is with foreign gamblers. In poor countries where the average wage is $40 a week. Those minimum deposit and withdrawal metrics could make a big difference in the bottom line of aspiring gamblers of those regions.
539  Economy / Economics / Re: Brexit: Rejoining EU takes record 14-point lead in latest poll on: November 02, 2022, 10:14:48 PM
What do you mean?
The UK is already sending weaponry to Ukraine and UK officers are training Ukraine soldiers.


The eurofighter typhoon project was marketed as a joint project between EU nations. But in practice everyone involved contributed as little funding and resources to the development cycle as possible. Which resulted in it being a failure. The same precedent will apply to support for ukraine. Everyone will contribute as little as possible. Hasn't it been the basic precedent for decades if not centuries of human history.


Putin is doing more than any European leader has managed to do for the Union, he got two brand new countries into NATO when everyone was not thinking of anything military-related, he has managed to get former CIS countries more interested in joining both the EU and NATO, now if the UK comes back he will become the laughing stock of the century.


As an american I was shocked and surprised when iran began throwing support behind Putin.

Aside from turkey who selected russian s400s over american F-35s, are there other *surprise* nations who will rise up to join russia?

For many years the media claimed russia was isolated and alone. Now apparently russia has friends. The narrative is shifting in ways that I do not approve of.
540  Economy / Economics / Re: Planning on: November 01, 2022, 11:53:53 PM
Books on financial planning should be required reading in standard school curriculum. If only for the frightening and eye opening statistics:

Quote

Financial Planning Statistics – Highlights

  • Only about 30% of American households have any kind of long-term savings or financial plan.
  • 20% of Americans don’t save any amount of their yearly income – at all.
  • 42% of Americans have less than $10,000 saved for retirement.


Knowing basic statistics could be the incentive people need to get motivated to learn about finance.

Which would lead to positive life changes and better decisions which would elevate average quality of life.

Looking at the above stats it may not be difficult to see why many were so excited about new developments like BTC.

People need strong long term HODL assets in a very big way.
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