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561  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 12, 2022, 11:58:52 AM

Happy Birthday sir!  Nice cake!  Don't know how you cut that thing!
562  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 11, 2022, 06:48:08 PM
<Hyperbullish cAPS mode on>  (like it's ever off lol)

-We are arguably in the first throes of a worldwide financial system meltdown.
-UDT, a stablecoin, has been destroyed
-Luna, the underlying chain has been absolutely rugpulled
-The centralized team behind it sold 80k BTC to try to prop up their project.

Bitcoin?  Dips under 30k for a while...

<Hyperbullish cAPS mode back off>

Now I will go back to crying in my gatorade...
563  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 11, 2022, 06:21:38 PM
I know we are the choir here.

But UST based on Terra Luna was underpinned using DPoS.

I have neither done the analysis, nor have I seen any complete on this wreckage yet, but I am curious how much of what has happened can be laid at the feet of PoS.  I suspect at least a portion of it.

This may be the future for ETH if they take this route.  Imagine the black hole that would create when it collapses.

This is truly horrifying.  The "toxic maxis" ought to be memeing this as the result of PoS no matter what, actually...
564  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 11, 2022, 05:44:41 PM
And SERIOUSLY.  For the LUNA bagholders...  Help is just a call away.  Whatever you are thinking is probably not worth it.

Seriously... O.M.G.

Not only Luna & UST was attacked. According to CoinmarketCap's Stable coin list, At least Three Freaking Stable Coin was attacked. Neutrino USD, USDX and UST. Just Because Luna and its UST are more popular, that's why people are only talking about it. I wouldn't be surprised if UST loses its 100% Value in the coming days because it has happened before. Have you ever heard of USDP Stablecoin? It was a Shitcoin-backed So called Stablecoin which one already lost its 100% Value. Of course, Terra-Luna is a bit different. Let's see how it impacts the overall market.


Lucky for me, I have exactly zero interest in them, and hold the same amount - zero.  I have bought some USDT on Liquid just to see what it feels like and ended up making a profit getting back into BTC entirely by accident.

I have always been dubious about Blockstream's (read Adam Back's) USDT romance, and have also been very doubtful about the real use and safety of a "decentralized stablecoin".  The whole thing is just ripe for abuse.

I hate that I am going to have to get old as hell watching the world come to the slowest possible conclusion that blockchain was all about Bitcoin in the end.  I think Blockstream has the right idea that building sidechains is where some fun VC type adventures are going to happen... but stablecoins?  Not without a trusted third party.  And well...
565  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 11, 2022, 05:38:37 PM
Good lord! You guys pontificate about the benefits of bitcoin DCA "strategy" like for days and days and days here on the WO.

Umpteen gazillion pages written about something so simple and benign.

Way to make something WAAAAYY more complicated than it needs to be.

Either:

a) Just buy on the major dips, or

b) put a set amount of DCA buys on autopilot at the end of every week, two weeks, or month, or

c) all of the above.

Also d) stay the fk away from shitcoins.

Sheesh, what is so fucking hard about this? Huh

Nothing.  That's it.  That's the whole thing.
566  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 11, 2022, 04:40:11 PM
And SERIOUSLY.  For the LUNA bagholders...  Help is just a call away.  Whatever you are thinking is probably not worth it.

Seriously... O.M.G.



(Hard not to buy a bag here, really... but this homie don't play that)
567  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 11, 2022, 04:33:06 PM
If you have the house edge and still can't make it
https://twitter.com/WatcherGuru/status/1524125736726110213



Not that I would ever buy COIN, but over 20 Wall Street analysts still have a price target of $271.23 on the stock. It's currently @ $55.37.

That means that either they know something is coming that we don't know, or they are all complete fucking idiots.

It CAN be both.

So, Bitcoin has bounced off the yearly low today...  It would be great if this was the bottom, but most signs do not point to that.  Still Bitcoin does what it likes to, and I think it is acting great considering the environment.

Could be in for a little altpocalypse action here, which usually painful is some of the best medicine.
568  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: May 11, 2022, 12:37:28 PM
Our cute little black sheep...  Always swimming against the current.



   A couple days ago, that was a good thing.  Not so thrilled with it today.

No joke.  Pretty frisky downward action here...  Looks like lots of momentum left too, I'd say.

You know... if there is any truth to the naked shorting exchanges idea, they would be working to claw back that money they lost over the last couple weeks about now.

I dunno.  The conspiracies...  who knows?
569  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: May 10, 2022, 03:15:11 PM
Our cute little black sheep...  Always swimming against the current.

570  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 10, 2022, 01:56:37 PM
Meanwhile the bros over at Bitfinex longs going full yolo reaching new ath.....






This is almost as bad as Proudhon's recent posts.
571  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 10, 2022, 01:55:20 PM
Sorry but I couldn't resist... this one is for you JJG  Grin



Haha!  Yes.

We are pretty close to being able to declare that model as broken.  It can still end up valid from here, but at this point that is in the very unlikely category.

I have never been a big fan of the model, and thought it would break on this "cycle".

But I, the consummate BTC bagholder, expected it to break to the upside. Wink

So our magic line in the sand is something around 29250.  That would be cool if it holds, but the way things look, I would expect we are more likely to go lower than that. I wish this felt bottomy, but it really doesn't.  I almost bought a little last night, but did not ...  The streets are not bloody enough yet. Sad

572  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 10, 2022, 12:36:59 PM
Wait for it, we're gonna bounce any minute now. It's gonna be strong. A real trend reversal. Bullish phase incoming.

OK, now I'm getting scared.
For the first time in many many months price goes below my DCA and the local Llama spots out this???
Is this what they were talking about as "Max Pain?"

Not yet.
573  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 09, 2022, 05:30:18 PM
So the bears are clearly gunning for sub $30k.

What a shock.

At least they tell you where you should be putting your buy orders at.

proudhon where are you?

Your one post can stope this from happening.

Come on show us your negativity.

I don't know, looks like we could see a rally from here. Could easily get a pump to $60-70k.

Oh no.
574  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 09, 2022, 12:28:21 PM
Well how low we gonna get lads? I'm saying 31.5k

$25,000 early 2023 but don’t worry. We can all get gf’s after the next halving Smiley

I don't reckon, we'll get a covid like bounce before then. Fed will relent, market will go up, right up.

You think the fed mashes down the rates?

That's like giving the alcoholic who has shot his liver so bad and has only 72 hours to live some intravenous ethanol to ease the withdrawals while he dies.

Plus, Trump might have (foolishly) done that, but the current gang WANTS this to happen.  But I sort of hope they do it.
575  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 09, 2022, 12:24:30 PM
Almost parity



Sad Trombone


HA!  For ages it was WHEN WILL WE HAVE PAGE PARITY?? Now it's mwaaa mwaaaaaah.
576  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 09, 2022, 12:22:44 PM
@DylanLeClair_
A #bitcoin  dip down to it's realized price (average on-chain cost basis) is entirely possible and has been consistent with previous market bottoms in bear market cycles.

Realized price is $24.3k at the moment.

[1/3]

https://twitter.com/dylanleclair_/status/1523579493926899712?s=21


@DylanLeClair_
Here is a standardized ratio between market price and realized price (market value to realized value - MVRV).

24k would be in the green zone.

Again, dips to/below realized price have historically signaled a capitulation style bear market bottom is in (or close).

[2/3]



@DylanLeClair_
Going back to December, I outlined this possibility and prefaced it with the opinion that it's unlikely to occur unless a significant liquidity crises emerged in legacy markets.

Well, it looks like we're getting one.

Stay safe out there.

[3/3]
https://twitter.com/dylanleclair_/status/1523579497928617985?s=21


Finger on the trigger over the next 12 months boys. Be ready to get fiat onto exchanges.


I think this scenario is highly possible... and fits the way this cycle has gone the whole time...  That lets us have the large drawdown, but not as severe as past cycles, just as the top was not as high.  It keeps us up above the last cycle top, which has been consistent so far.

But I think a higher bottom is possible as well.

It is hard to imagine that the world stock markets are not getting crushed right now, and if so I think Bitcoin takes shrapnel.  BUT the wild card is people are also waking up to believe Bitcoin is "digital gold" So *SOME* percent of money is going to flow into it for safety, while the money that sees it as a tech stock is leaving.  That's the most interesting bit, I think.
577  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 09, 2022, 12:55:26 AM
I go out of town for a week and yall crash to corn this bad?  Wink

Just kidding... I was following along and expected it.  Now the fun game is picking the bottom...
578  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 28, 2022, 02:20:15 AM
Got acorns on your land?

Not a single one  Undecided

I think I have one in my nightstand if you want to release it from a drone onto your land somewhere.  Imagine the oak forest in 200 years!

-edit-  How long can an acorn last in a nightstand before it can no longer be dropped from a drone onto the fertile east Tejas ground and still sprout?  I suppose this one might be 5-15 years old... probably dead now.
579  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 27, 2022, 05:50:53 PM
I said this was coming.

I hate that I was probably right. Sad

580  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 27, 2022, 05:48:11 PM
Bitcoin gives us choice, a choice we did not have before.

1. Want to be your own bank? With Bitcoin, you can, if you've got what it takes.
2. Too scared to be your own bank? A 3rd party can take care of your* BTC for you.

I believe (2) will be offered by banks, which will serve as the Bitcoin custodians for the non-tech-savvy, scared crowd. The vast majority of people want someone to take care of the technicalities. They want a customer service number. Bitcoin is raw fire -- (still) too hot to handle by most.

* "Not your keys..."

Underrated nuanced take.  And the truth.

And we are learning it represents a certain kind of risk.  Rehypothication, naked shorts etc.  There seems to be a joint movement with the two projects I care about right now to move coins off exchanges.  I hope it can continue to build momentum.  We will really NEED it when the scared start showing up more and more...  The rest of us need to be the brave ones as much as we can.

I have said for years, and believe it more than ever, that the short squeeze to dwarf all short squeezes is somewhere on the horizon.  I know where my coins will be fore it.  Same place they've always been.
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