I'm calling this a short-term bulltrap. Back down to the 630s in hours, then onward to the multiday bull trend.
Come on - what kind of a bull trap it would be if the price would fall $10-$15 and then continue raising? It would be rather a bear trap, for those who would be tempted to short. Agreed, a real bull trap would be a retest of $600. Throw in some major FUD and we're there. |
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Hey Peter, do you have an updated version of this graph published anywhere?
That's it above. I just re-ran the Mathematica code before I uploaded it. I see that the market cap has now diverged from the brown curve (TXs per day excluding popular addresses); however, since the Metcalfe value is a lagging indicator, this is somewhat expected. That's amazing, thanks! |
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Yes, and interestingly, the square of the number of unique bitcoin addresses used per day has historically tracked the market cap.  Hey Peter, do you have an updated version of this graph published anywhere? |
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People should first pass a small IQ test before being allowed to post here. Doesn't have to be a difficult test, I'm sure wobber won't pass any test even if you only ask him what his name is.
My IQ is pretty high, way above average. Was tested in a 10hour long battery test at a LEA. Was your head actually in your ass when you took the IQ test? |
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Yea, I was wrong. But it will only last shortly. Soon, when price gets back to 580, I'll be right again.
If the price goes to 580, that will probably mean some really bad news related to the auction. If that happens, we'll go lower than 580. It wouldn't surprise me. I mean, if I was to wake up and see BTC = $40 tomorrow morning on all exchanges, I wouldn't be surprised. I have buy orders opened for a long time at 50 (about 100 BTC) because I believe someday we will go there. Ok I was willing to give you some benes, but now with this comment you're clearly just trolling. Keep dreaming.  |
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[..]on June 12th [...] it has been 6 weeks now.
So the OP was correct in his prediction.
dat math, im sorry  Oops, you're right. For some reason I was thinking it was end of July already.  |
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Eh, I have to give the OP this one. If we use Stamp for reference, we fell below $620 on June 12th (when this thread was started), and only returned above $620 today. He said "weeks", and it has been 6 weeks now.
So the OP was correct in his prediction.
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What is going to happen:
1. Someone buys the coins for $500.
2. Tells everyone his bid at $800 was turned down.
3. Waits until we are all done panic buying.
4. Dumps his coins with prodigious profit.
It would be wise to mistrust any information 'leaked' on this topic, especially if bullish.
So you sold at $590? |
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Wow, Stamp is leading massively. Huobi is only $636.
Yeah... Even Bitfinex isn't gox-ish anymore. Coolio. Wouldn't it make sense though, if the auction losers are buying their coins directly on/from Stamp? |
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evil kneivel was a crap toy. broke right away. Mine didn't. Though I did chop the head off of my brother's and bury the body in the back yard. Mine lasted about a year, but I had to jam the bike hard really back into the launcher while I cranked it. Otherwise I'd super rev it only for it to launch about 4 inches and then fall over. |
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WTF is happening on Stamp.
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No way, that tweet would imply that the blocks went for WAY above market. And the thousands of idiot bitcoiners posting here in the last week say that's impossible.  |
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I am bullish.. and I love Bitcoin.
But I feel a red candle coming up shortly.
Kinda feel the same way, this don't look real to me. But hell, 7 solid months of a skittish, panicky bear market can begin to make even the most diehard bull feel pessimistic. So what do I know. |
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The changes to the deposit methods were announced on their homepages, as they happened over the past four months. I posted at least a dozen links to the notices in Chinese with Google Translations, others posted human translations, as well as Chinese media articles. Obviously they could not explain 4 months ago the changes that they were forced to make 2 months ago.
I'm not talking about announcing changes to the deposit methods. I'm talking about the fact that the Chinese exchange operators could have gotten together 4-5 months ago, had a meeting, and then published an official joint statement saying something to the effect of, "China has not banned bitcoin, and will never ban bitcoin. Whatever you read, whatever you hear, it is not banned and will never be banned. Do not believe any supposed China news FUD that you read that claims otherwise. Also do not believe any Chinese FUD related to our eventual exchanges demise. Our Chinese exchanges are not only legal, but we will never shut down. We will continue to work around the deposit issues with the PBOC. Do not believe the FUD! Also, OKCoin's volume is skewed based on 0% fees and HFT only, but it's not fake per se. But yes, it is a little misleading for sure." They could have offically published this in English for the Westerners, and on official sites like Coindesk. But they didn't do that, now did they? No official joint statement at all to help reassure the public and quell fears. Hell, the individual Chinese exchange operators barely even spoke (except for Bobby Lee) during that time. Their PR was just as bad, if not worse, than Mark Karpeles. It was as if they WANTED the continued ambiguity to fuel the ongoing FUD panic selling. And that's exactly what it did. That's not how it works in China, unless you want to make sure your business is shut down faster than you can say Socialism with Chinese Characteristics. Then you want to explain me why shit like this is coming out now? They couldn't have been bothered to do this AMA like, say 4 months ago? http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/29gwk8/we_are_okcoin_auaask_us_anything/ |
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“This is classic asset forfeiture. They’re washing these bitcoin clean, with the seal of approval of the US federal government." http://m.us.wsj.com/articles/BL-DGB-36203Allaire demonstrates a fundamental misunderstanding of what this action represents. a bitcoin doesn't possess the capacity to be washed or cleaned. dollar bills tainted with cocaine residue can be removed from circulation and destroyed. fresh new dollar bills can take their place. now that is cleaning. bitcoins, otoh, can't be cleaned. each digital representation is agnostic and if they passed through drug related hands then that is the case forever. there is no such thing as cleaning. the only thing the gov't demonstrated in this case is a willingness to flip drug money for a profit. plain and simple. and there is nothing wrong with that. as long as they allow other honest users to do the same. Well, right now they consider it drug 'property', not real money. Hopefully that will change some day. But yeah, I don't get all this crap about 'clean' money. For all I know, the dollar bills in my pocket could have been used by a drug dealer in the past. But who cares? Money doesn't care who uses it, or for what purpose. Plus I have less respect for fiat since it can be printed ad nauseam. |
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people who lost at the auction may now be buying in coins at the exchange.
These may be people that wanted to go and buy bitcoin anyway.
This is what I think will drive the price up. I don't think anyone was "manipulating" the price so much as the big buyers were not buying because they might win the auction and they don't want to drive up the price in the meantime OR end up with too many coins. Now that most of them lost, they will need coins fast. Yeah, agreed that by "fast" you mean they are sensing something on the horizon and want to get in quickly before the 'thing' happens.  I also find it interesting that Coinbase bid in the SR auction. In the past, they have stated that they are not interested in holding btc per se, but act as a broker who buys from the exchanges on behalf of users/merchants. But as witnessed during the run up in November, they quickly ran out of coins and could not replenish them fast enough. It seems the liquidity wasn't there, and that was with only a handful of exchanges (including Mt. Gox, the major one at the time). Now today we have what, over a dozen or more prominent exchanges, all fighting over the same amount of coins? Yikes. I wonder then, have they changed their stance and now wish to have a significant supply of coins on hand for something in the near future?? Hmmm...mmm... |
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Now if we can just get Nevada onboard. Think of the explosion of bitcoin usage when you can use it to gamble in every casino in Vegas! All those thousands of slot machines retrofitted to accept a quick btc deposit! Woot!
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guess its mostly manipulation what we see right now?!
You get the prize. The whale held the price down, the whale removed his fake walls and then the whale bots simply kicked in and auto-bought. Hoping to spark an uptrend. Now the same whales bots are selling back down due to lack of buying pressure (ie., REAL market buyers). I'm convinced now that for the time being, this market is still in a lull. I'm not seeing any real buyers back in this market yet, just whale bots buying/selling to themselves. The lack of volume and real demand is telling. Lack of sellers more telling. This market is going up. I hope you are right, and I'm also in the camp that's not selling (buy and hold). But I won't be convinced that real support is growing along with the buying until I see what happens during the next FUD shit storm (you know it's always right around the corner). If support holds at say $580 or higher, then I'll agree that the market is getting more resistant to panic selling. If we ever go back to $540 then it was all a mirage. |
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Another "btw". Btw, not that I'm a huge altcoin lover or anything, but to anyone who thinks Litecoin is sold off, completely dead, and will never rise exponentially from here. Well Litecoin just jumped 5% too. For such a dead coin, so strange right? Right? So yeah, it's still relatively pegged to BTC, although the LTC market is always lagging the BTC market. So don't be shocked if it also goes to the moon during/just after the next BTC bubble. |
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That said, the main reason that I do believe bubble size growth will decrease over time is that I believe that as the market gets bigger, the market also becomes more professional, which also entails it becomes more opportunistic, which entails profits will be taken earlier (because if you don't take profits comparably early, someone else will, and suddenly there are no profits for you to take anymore - i.e. a game theoretic understanding emerges that profits need to be taken earlier as time progresses), which entails the bubbles will overshoot less than they did in the past.
I think that is spot on what is going to happen, its the best I'm hoping for in the circumstances. Any other crazy MOON ideas occupy the same part of my brain that thinks I'm gonna win the lottery or something, nice to dream but unlikely to happen! I generally agree, as it will take an even higher volume of money to make a bubble go parabolic to the same relative level (5x - 6x) as past bubbles. But to play devil's advocate, suppose we go through future periods where the bitcoin "awareness factor" spreads faster than previous times, and an influx of new bitcoiners has a higher incoming velocity (i.e., say 20x vs. 10x) than past bubbles? So hyper userbase growth? Higher velocity of new incoming users = higher volume of incoming fiat, resulting in possibly the same relative bubble height. In terms of awareness growth, I believe we are going through one of those periods now, in that bitcoin awareness is spreading globally at a hyper-exponential rate than past periods. This is what I think may fuel a hyper-bubble in the future. Maybe not this next time, but at some future date. Hopefully what I'm saying is making some sense. Thoughts? |
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