Nope, you sir have the analysis all wrong.

The charts clearly show that we are heading into a double bubble triple looper under and over inverse / extroverted whale splash curve trending to the moon then using a left handed smoke shifter to go to mars, not seen since early 2010.

Yeah, he was.  

-1

While I understand your frustration, please remember that it was your people that caused the crash back on Dec 5th out of FEAR of your government's actions.  And every time some silly rumor comes out about China halting Yuan deposits into Chinese bitcoin exchanges, again your people panic sell out of FEAR of your government's actions.  Yet again, time after time after time.  And because they know it works, your government will keep pulling that lever over and over until your people decide to stop being sheep.

So if native Chinese want the respect of those bitcoiners in other countries, then they need to earn it by:

1.  Stop panic selling every time your government or the PBOC sneezes or scratches its backside.
2.  Stop panic selling on false rumors of a ban, or even a true rumor of a ban.  China, or any country, cannot "ban" bitcoin.
3.  Stop treating bitcoin as if it is just a "get rich quick game."
4.  Stand strong, be proud holders of bitcoin, put up a fight.
5.  Demand that Chinese merchants be allowed to transact in bitcoin.
6.  If all else fails, then foster a Chinese grey market for bitcoin (or black market if need be).
7.  Did I mention HODL!?!?

Bitcoin is serious business, so only serious countries need apply.  

Selling to buy back lower to increase ones position is one thing (provided your hunch is right and it does indeed go lower).  But anyone that panics sells when 30%-50% underwater and "locks in" their losses just baffles me... I'm at a complete loss for words.  All because they have zero patience??

AnonyMint, actually I don't see it just from the bitcoin perspective, but have read a lot of different articles on the subject of China's shadow banking system.  Do you believe that it grew out of frustration with the government-blessed conservative banking agenda around standard low return investments, or that the Chinese entrepreneurs typically are just greedy as hell and have way more appetite for risk?  

Sometimes I get the feeling that it's a cultural thing.  That typical Chinese are not conservative minded at all, but are like WallStreeters on steroids.  That they all feel they are entitled to be wealthy, and will do anything to get there, no matter who of their own people might get hurt along the way.  And that they feel that their government is just holding them back.  Sometimes it seems to me that the Chinese government knows this of their own people's engrained behavior (just look at their politicians, they see it in the mirror), i.e. that they can be irresponsible/corrupt with money and power, and wants to basically babysit and protect the Chinese people from themselves before things get out of hand.  Hence their government's popping of bubbles every time they pop up, like playing whack-a-mole.  Also, anything in China that approaches something that resembles a "mania" (e.g., Falun Dafa, Tiananmen square, etc.) is immediately squashed like a bug.  I'm sure their gov't is worried that bitcoin mania may start to go down this path as well.

Regardless, I think the shadow banking system in China is starting to show some serious cracks from being so over-leveraged.

On altcoins, I hear that there are now hundreds of Chinese-flavored alt coins, and that this is what they all now talk about on QQ instead of bitcoin.  True or..?  Not sure how anonymous any of them are though.

It's very refreshing to see a few people openly acknowledging something that I have been thinking about myself since November.  With the exception of BTC China which may be on the level (for now Bobby Lee seems to be an upstanding guy, at least until proven otherwise), my fear is that the other Chinese exchanges are masking a world of fraud.  Fraud in the Chinese culture is not as frowned upon as it is in the U.S. and other countries, because they don't see it the same way... over there it is survival of the fittest, so many there would be willing to "bend the rules" if it gives them an edge.  Things that we found to be completely outrageous and unacceptable with Mt Gox, such as running a Ponzi, cooking the books, likely inflating BTC prices and volume levels, etc. might be seen in China as "business as usual", since there is no regulation to stipulate that they have to do anything on the level.

So what happens if it's proven that they are all inflating prices and volumes, running Ponzi's with phantom BTC, etc.?  What then, another extreme crash?  The more time that passes, the more extreme such a crash could be.  And more importantly, why should the rest of the world's bitcoin exchanges trust them enough to follow their price patterns?  Why should we allow them to pull the rest of the world's exchanges down?  Until someone credible is allowed to go in and audit the Chinese exchanges, I'll always remain dubious.  I guess the same could be said of having suspicions of Bitstamp and BTC-e, but I'm more inclined to trust a Bitstamp or a Kraken at this point than I am BTC-e or any of the Chinese exchanges.

Well TERA, I think you wanted some decent discourse on this so I'll oblige.

I think when people scream FUD, it just means that they feel the Chinese government is cowardly for it's behavior in not providing clarity on their stance of bitcoin.  Right now if the Chinese government and PBOC wanted to clarify their stance, they could easily do that couldn't they?  But ambiguity is a form of oppression, of mind control, a way of inspiring panic and fear in their people.  And they seem to do that very well, in fact revel in it.

The news could very well be true, and most likely is at this point.  Whether it is or it isn't, the Chinese panic sellers believe that it is and that's all that matters to them.  Their actions today speak for themselves.  If they want to be sheep and sell everything, then so be it.

Personally I hope that the PBOC weighs in on this definitively in the next few days and I hope the news is true.  I hope that China dumps for good and goes away from bitcoin forever.  Right now they are a liability in all of this.  I think that's what the rest of the world is thinking as well.

TERA - All of these points/deficiencies can eventually be overcome with time and development, as you already know.  Except for #14 through #16, which I agree with you... it may get crazier still in the next 2-3 years.  #15 could happen if digital currencies becomes enough of a threat to gov't/banks throughout the world, but the U.S. and other democratic leaning countries already know that trying to stifle technological innovation, even in the finance industry, is just a really bad idea and wouldn't go over very well with the populous.  It would backfire if they came down hard, because they loathe to take things away from people without cause.

Let's look back 15 years ago.  Remember when you still had to purchase web browsing software?  Remember when the free/open source software movement began?  Remember the Java/J2EE vs. .NET wars?  Remember when Linux came along to shake up IT in the Enterprise?  I do... and I remember when folks were shouting at the top of their lungs that free, open source software would NEVER trump non-free, proprietary software.  It would never work, they said, and would die a slow painful death.  Well look how that all turned out.

Ok, that's really it for me MattTheCat.  If anyone is a fkn Clown on this forum, it's you.  You throw your weight around this forum like you are some big shit, and constantly feel the need to level profanities at anyone you don't agree with.  Well fuck you.  I've watched you over the past several months botch trades, call bottoms that never came, fk up leverages that didn't swing in your favor.  Hell I'm no day trader, but I've cleaned your clock just selling at $850, patiently waiting 2 months (while you continued to day trade and barely scrape by), and buying back at $550 and again at $520.  No one here respects your opinion because you are always picking fights and acting like a complete asshat.

If you don't like what's going on in the bitcoin world or on this forum, then my advice is to get out of the bitcointalk forum, sell everything, fuck off and go back to snorting coke or whatever it is that you do for a fkn hobby.

Positive or negative trends are all relative.  Take a look at this:
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg60zczsg2013-08-30zeg2013-10-05ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

That sure looks like a slight negative trend to me, with a very negative crash toward the end.  Although anyone that sold everything in October because of this had no idea what was coming, and are probably crying right now...

Every time your country panic sells, we buy.  Pretty soon, the majority of BTC will be back in U.S. hands.  And long term, the U.S. will have the predominate amount of bitcoin holders of any other country.

So yeah China, please keep panic selling.  The new currency war has begun!!  <insert dramatic musical score here>

 

Without optimism, there would not be more adopters of bitcoin, but less.  And without more adopters of bitcoin, the price would not rise.

Would you rather pessimism and negativity be the pervasive attitude of bitcoiners?

Big mistake.

^^^
That picture is EXACTLY what I picture every time some fake China news gets posted about the PBOC banning bitcoin, and then the Chinese bitcoiners start panic selling.  

Sorry to sound racist, as I'm not at all, but it sure seems like some cultures are so ridiculously skittish, paranoid, and scared that any time their government so much as sneezes they drop their shorts in an instant.  It worries me because bitcoin is a little like the EUR, we're all in this together, and some countries can pull us down.  I'm starting to see that some cultures of the world really have no business in investing in bitcoin.  Who's gonna be the next panicky, paranoid culture to get involved in bitcoin?  India?  Indonesia?  South Korea?  How will the price ever rise if all it takes is for one of these groups to publish fake FUD about banning and they all panic sell?

What a circus.

I agree, and firmly believe that the Chinese shadow banking system is one giant Ponzi scheme.

Incidentally, I went to my U.S. bank about 6 months ago to withdrawal $10k USD in cash.  The bank teller said they couldn't give me that amount because they didn't have it available, said that the most she could give me was $3k.  She said the rest would have to be "ordered" a full week in advance to have it available for me.

Now I realize this has become standard practice at most banks these days.  Their reasoning is supposedly to thwart bank robbers making off with loads of $$$.  But we all know it's BS, it is because of fractional reserve banking and that they wouldn't have enough physical money to cover everyone in the event of a true bank run.

Another horror story: My fiancee also once had her out-of-state bank account frozen by the State of Wisconsin, over a dispute of supposedly unpaid gains taxes on the sale of a prior home there (she was quickly found innocent of the charges, as she had sold the house at a loss).  I personally witnessed this happen.  The fact that the bank just rolled over and allowed the State of Wisconsin (not even the same state where her new bank account was!) to seize her bank account and funds without prior notification and with no evidence is just un-freaking believable.  She was so pissed off, that when the freeze was lifted she promptly went in and withdrew all her remaining money, immediately closed her bank account (it was with Chase btw -- evil, evil bank, don't trust them!) and opened up a new bank account with another bank down the street.

TL;DR - We all need to wake the F up and open our eyes to the corrupt banking systems of the world.

That doesn't make sense to me. If that were the case, then why would anyone in the U.S. buy BTC at all to use as a daily currency?  No one in the U.S. is going to buy BTC for daily currency use if it continues a trend of 10X gains a year for the next 2-3 years.

Also it encourages U.S. Merchants to dump BTC immediately upon receipt instead of holding, or not touch it at all, so they can avoid having to pay any gains tax yearly, yes?

I still don't think FIFO is going to work.  I can set up a hot wallet and buy/sell bitcoin hourly just to fund my daily micro transactions, keeping the daily balance at or near 0.  But I can also send small amounts of BTC to that wallet from another anonymous wallet (or series of random wallets) that contained BTC that was much older.  No one could ever accurately track/calculate how old that incoming BTC was, and if there was any gain.  And with tumblers it could be made even more obscure.

I'm an idiot, whenever I get a large chunk of money I go all in at the current price.  And I have gotten a little burned here and there from that strategy.  

So don't do what I do.  Invest 10% of your total funds now, and then invest another 10% every time the price moves up or down 5% from the last price you bought.  

Although I believe we are recovering from the last downcycle, so if you went all in at the current price and just held for 3-4 months, I think you would be a very happy person indeed.  

But does that really make sense?  The GMQ charts companies in a space, not protocols.  That would be like putting HTTP, SMTP, FTP, etc. on a chart.

Instead, it'd make more sense for the GMQ to show companies like BitPay, Coinbase, Circle, Blockchain.info, Bitstamp, VoS, etc.

I think that he means that many Wall Streeters have been involved trading in bitcoin for some time now (perhaps the last 3 years), the attraction being that they have been able to make quick easy trades and enormous profits basically tax-free due to the lack of clear guidance issued from the IRS.  Now that guidance has been issued on taxable bitcoin gains, and being required to hold bitcoin for at least 12 months to avoid income tax, it may scare some WS players away.

I don't think it makes much sense when trying to use it as a currency.  If I buy bitcoin at 3pm to use for a cup of coffee and go to buy coffee at 4pm and my bitcoin appreciated in that hour, I'm not going to make a record of every single buy/sell and determine if it is a gain or loss to report to the IRS.  Stupid.

But maybe it'll encourage the investors to HODL large amounts of bitcoin for at least 12 months.