When the shorts come out with extreme emotion saying it'll crash lower, you know the bottom was already found. 

Yeah, it was mentioned alright... by a bunch of low life scumbags trying to spread more FUD with fake screen caps.

Neither the Blockchain blog nor the Coinbase blog officially mention the word "insolvency".

This is on the Coinbase blog, wording is different (no "insolvency" mentioned):

http://blog.coinbase.com/

I guess you didn't catch the extreme sarcasm in my post  

Wow, and with no explanation? This Mark K. guy's PR abilities just keep getting better and better!  Outstanding leadership in that company for sure!

Annnnd just like that, the pump and dump is over.   

Source?  Also, what about their coins, I'm assuming off-exchange wallet?

Hey man, not trying to pick a fight.  But if I predicted a full two month window for capitulation (which in my mind, it'll happen within the next 15 days) and posted that on this board I would have absolutely been laughed at. A lot of other members with very little TA skills have already surmised that.  

Seriously? 

Sorry smoothie, but a guy that's been around these boards since 2011 and the best TA you can come up with is a freakin' 2-month range for final capitulation?  My 13 year old daughter could have surmised that just from looking at a few historical charts for about 5 minutes.

Nail it down to the exact week and I'll be impressed.   

Risto, just curious: Do you think any positive news regarding Mt. Gox could raise the absolute bottom floor price range, or do you think it will hit that bottom range regardless?

I'd like to believe that Gox news (positive or negative) is already factored in, and capitulation to the bottom range you describe will happen regardless.  But Gox is still a bit of a wildcard IMO.  I'm not sure how much public sentiment is attached to it at this point.  For example, they could resume withdrawals and then shortly after a recovery could ensue, only to have them announce a "closing up shop" a few months later... which might affect another sharp drop in price...

Agree with everything you said.  But had to fix one line above for ya.  There's absolutely NO guarantee that Gox will resume withdrawals, they may never.  They could very well just be stalling, and the decision has already been made (aka via their lawyers).  And even if they do it will most likely be severely restricted... meaning only a trickle of coins will come out, so these won't able to be dumped in mass quantities all at once on other exchanges.

Sorry about that, you are correct... I misread the author of that quote.

Overall I'm hopeful and positive.  But I can't help shake the feeling that something is very wrong with the way this U.S. regulation stuff is going...

<tinfoil hat>

1.  Charlie Shrem gets arrested at the airport literally a day before the NY legislation hearings begin
2.  The Charlie Shrem arrest is brought up more than once by B. Lawsky in the hearings
3.  The legislators saved the bitcoin naysayers and 'doom and gloomers' for the last day of the hearings, including law enforcement chiming in negatively
4.  Mt. Gox is under investigation by the FBI, seized U.S. bank accounts due to Mt. Gox likely not implemented proper AML and KYC for its customers since 2011
5.  Mt. Gox is now likely insolvent, hackers absconding with customers bitcoins and $$$, and the price tanks to around $100 TODAY
6.  B. Lawsky schedules to have an AMA on Reddit TODAY, the very same day that Mt. Gox is having its worst crisis

Coincidence?  I just don't think so.  I think the U.S. is slowly building their anti-bitcoin case here.  Or a case for over-the-top regulation that would be hard or expensive for companies to comply with.  I really hope that I'm wrong.

The tell will be how many times that B.Lawsky brings up the Mt Gox fiasco in the AMA.

</tinfoil hat>

EDIT:  No one on the AMA even mentioned Mt. Gox in their questions.  But B.Lawsky made a point to say this directly:

"It is good to make regulation clear for bitcoin businesses, it will create a much better foundation for them to build on. But next to helping the bitcoin businesses there should also be some focus in helping the customers. Which legal rights do we as customers have when dealing with bitcoin businesses. Should bitcoin businesses be accountable for the funds of its customers, my personal feeling would be yes. The current uncertainty is one of the reasons the bitcoin prices have been so volatile. Just look at what Mt Gox is doing to the market at the moment. It was a huge exchange where people put a lot of trust and money into, and now its burning down due to "technical problems" and people losing hope they will ever fix those. Customers panic sell/buy because they have no idea if they will ever see their USD/CNY or BTC back. Due to lack of legislation many bet on going FIAT, driving the price of a gox btc to the ground, hoping they can sue Mt Gox should it go bankrupt. And there are many more exchanges currently being used which operate in very questionable legal area's. Even though criminals might welcome those exchanges, it would be good for normal people to be able to use legit bitcoin businesses, who don't face possible seizure by law enforcement and allow for some legal "insurance" that their money cant be stolen without legal consequence for the business owners."

See the legislation case that he is building?  I do.

So what makes you so sure that these mysterious "goxcoins" even exist?

+1000

This is great post.  You are correct in that what we are witnessing is the laissez-faire free market of bitcoin working as it should.  It will foster more competition in the market and between the exchanges.  More exchanges will hopefully appear that can do a better job.  It will put pressure on all exchanges to be better, to be smarter, to protect themselves, and also to protect their customers.  Bitcoin will be stronger because of this.

I just hope it stays that way, and we don't someday in the future end up with "too big to fail" exchanges that need a bailout from either government or corporations in order for the bitcoin market to survive.

FTFY  

Please. Stop. Saying. This.  "They" are not a HUGE team of multi talented executives.  

IT'S ONE F*CKING IMMATURE GUY RUNNING MT GOX, AND HIS NAME IS MARK.

Ok, here's a good one for ya:

<tinfoil hat>

The U.S. Govt current prints about $65B per month right now, correct?  So they decide they want to crash the bitcoin market, cripple confidence, and hopefully get rid of bitcoin all together.  So they take just $1B (a fraction of what they print per month, but 10% of the current bitcoin marketcap), use operatives to buy huge stashes of early adopter and old miner coins, and then systematically flood the market with coins.  Crashing the price to double digits.  Folks panic sell in droves.  Blood in the streets.  The exponential trendline is broken for good.  It's over.

</tinfoil hat>

Yep.  I mean if there was zero chance that they didn't have all the bitcoins accounted for for every wallet on Gox, don't you think he would of said immediately "That's not true.  We're completely solvent."  

Meaning that someone will eventually get the short end of the stick, when trying to withdrawal their coins.  They will just get blocked.  It'll be a roach motel.

Dude, if you are trying to use Coinbase for frequent trading, be very careful.  A lot of transactions in and out of your bank account from Coinbase will definitely raise red flags at the bank.  Depending on the bank, you might get dropped.  Just sayin'.