MattTheCat, did you ever consider that someone might be trading on behalf of a big player, like a big whale investor or even Second Market?  A bitcoin ETF such as them would have those size trading chips, and someone to do the trading for them so they don't have to get their hands dirty.  You really think they are just going to sit on their big stash of bitcoins for the whole year, and not try to play the market to earn more return?

LOL, these threads.

Let's recount some things about China:

1.  Expectation that the Chinese would dump all their BTC on Jan. 31st.
A:  Wrong.  They just went on holiday for Chinese New Year.  Might last until Feb. 7th or so.  Low trading volumes on the Chinese exchanges reflect that (except for those that are faking their data, lol).  Whoever in China wanted to liquidate did so ahead of that date.  So it was all FUD, just like Y2K.

2.  Expectation that the announcement by BTC China that they have re-enabled bank account deposits would increase Chinese trading, possibly increasing the price.
A:  Wrong.  Didn't I just say they went on holiday? So who's around to trade?  lol

3.  Expectation that the Chinese government is now endorsing or "blessing" bitcoin in China, because they didn't outright ban it, and the Chinese didn't dump on Jan. 31st.  
A: Wrong.  The Chinese government is just ignoring it for now.  They can change or rewrite the rules in China anytime they want.  So when Chinese trading picks back up after New Year and if the Chinese government feels it is rising too quickly (or just flat out changes their mind about it), more public notices can be issued at any time.  How the Chinese bitcoiners will react to more notices is completely a mystery at this point.  Here's to hoping they become more resistant to the mind control.  Hopefully the Chinese exchanges can work below the radar and play by the rules, so that they don't themselves become a target of gov't shutdown.

This is just too hilarious.  Also, I loved the way so many bitcoin n00bs who either unknowingly took Bitcoinlitecoinbtcltc and Proudhon seriously (and thus added to the FUD spreading), or were in on the joke and also added to the FUD spreading.  Classic.

I've been having these very same thoughts.  A lot of people believe that in times of economic crisis, with falling stock prices, that everyone will liquidate and rush to "put it all in bitcoin or PMs."  Perhaps, but I also see that as being somewhat shortsighted and naive.  If everyone suddenly needed large amounts of fiat to pay bills because their stocks collapsed and they lost their job, do you think they would rush to put it all in bitcoin?  No, they'd likely do the opposite: whatever they had invested, pull it all OUT of bitcoin, lol.

Only in the countries where they have hyperinflation and their currency is truly collapsing, could I see them rushing to bitcoin.

Thank you for this background on your experiences, sgbett.  What you went through echoes my own since November.  I bought on the way up (thank the gods not all at the top!), and I am now buying a bit here and there on the way back down.  I have some fiat waiting for a final capitulation, but realize that it may or may not materialize.  As a n00b I made some rookie mistakes, but I can forgive myself since I basically discovered bitcoin right at the beginning of the China rally, and thus had no time to really analyze the market or fully understand what the heck was going on with Bitcoin.  It was all brand new to me, so I sort of just went all in.  (Also Coinbase made things difficult to get a sizable position going early on and I actually lost money with their slow onboarding process, but that's another story....)

Now I feel like I know this market a little better than I did then.  But overall, I'm not a day trader.  I'm in it for the long haul because I believe in Bitcoin.  Right now, I'm just trying to amass as many BTC as I can before the next leg up.  After that, my appetite for buying more will greatly decrease.  I plan to hold for at least 1.5 to 2 years before taking any profits.

My advice to anyone is, "Buy some and then buy some more. Keep buying until you are satisfied that you have enough."  

So Huobi and OKCoin can have bank accounts for deposit/withdrawal, but BTC China can't? Hmmm?  Interesting...

I'm starting to get a sense that there are forces at work in China, who do not like Bobby Lee and wish to run him and his business out of town.  Perhaps because he is seen as an outsider, and in the beginning acted as if his company had "cornered the bitcoin market" in China.  IDK.  He seems to have to play by a different set of rules than that of either Huobi or OKCoin just to stay viable.

Just watching it feels like something is going to blow on their servers.  Like it's stuck in an infinite loop or something.   

Yeah, but look at the 1m chart.  Price is not actually trending down, is it?

My theories:
1.  Fake volume created by bots using large trades (to avoid fees) to show higher level of activity.
2.  Some type of test of the trading system.
3  An attack on BTC China to somehow discredit them.  That much CNY going into into a corporate bank account is going to raise some red flags.
4.  Some large whale on BTC China just wants out.

Maybe so that Renminbi withdrawals have been suspended is a hoax, it's possible. But as the OP alluded to, the real underlying problem is this:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-16/chinese-stocks-tumble-contagion-concerns-first-shadow-banking-default

As I've said in other threads on China in this forum, I truly believe that their Shadow banking system and the $1T in toxic investment packages that they have created are one giant Ponzi Scheme house-o-cards, just waiting to fall.  The Chinese Government may be able to step in "through the back door" and bail out some of them, but they most likely won't be able to bail them all out.  And the contagion could spread very quickly in 2014 once it starts in earnest.

^^^
Best. Video. Evar. 

Here's the real reason why China is suspending bank withdrawals from Jan. 31st - Feb. 7th :

http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2014/01/29/shadow-banking-chinas-wobbly-house-of-cards/

"Among the many issues raised by this episode, two deserve special attention. The first is the hitherto undisclosed risks in China's shadow banking sector, which is estimated to have $6 trillion in outstanding loans. The second is the increased likelihood of a major default in the very near future."

The PBOC is saying they are suspending bank and ATM operations due to "system maintenance."  Yeah, riiiight.  Just like in June 2013, and Dec. 2013.  

So they are having a liquidity crisis.  Yes, it will affect Chinese wanting to buy bitcoin during that time.  No, it really has nothing to do with bitcoin per se. When you have a chinese Shadow banking system that is basically one big Ponzi Scheme, bad things are going to start happening.   January 31st marks the start of when banks have to start "paying the piper", i.e. the Chinese investors.  And the Chinese government has known about this upcoming crisis since last year.

I can confirm that the video captured him saying this.  So confirmed.

At least she's back to talking about bitcoins instead of ripples  

Oh crap, Susan Athey mentioned Ripple about 3-4 times in the first 5 minutes of her opening remarks.  Heresy!

It's funny, so many bitcoiners focused on the date of Jan. 31st, but little do they know it's for all the wrong reasons.  Can't see the Chinese forest for the trees.

Do people with no eye on what's happening in the emerging markets really think that the Chinese government would put an arbitrary date of Jan. 31st, 2014, the announcement almost 2 months ahead of schedule, because they were focused on suspending bank withdrawals for.... just bitcoin?  Really?  Really??

China will be suspending bank withdrawals from Jan 31st to about Feb 7th, and it has little do with the bitcoin market.  It's just coincidental that it would effect bitcoin purchasing as well. Just do the research online and you'll find out why.  

Panel 2 is kicking ass today!  Kudos to Fred, Jeremy, and that Overstock guy (didn't catch his name)

My answer is no.  I think $5K is a little short sighted, a speed bump on the way up to something much higher.  Plus I just want to own, use, and spend bitcoin.  It's a revolution of sorts but still in its infancy.

Also as far as altcoins go, some folks need to realize that their ultimate success (as something other than pure speculation) will depend heavily on how far bitcoin goes in terms of adoption/use.

I agree with the Wells Fargo scenario.  One of the regulators on the panel even hinted as much, with his comment of "have you guys thought about becoming or funding/supporting a bitcoin bank?"  The implication being that US banks already have to comply with US state money transmitter and KYC laws/regulations, and so thus a US bank would have a much easier time becoming a US-based bitcoin exchange.  

But the question becomes, what exactly does a US bank have for incentive to becoming a bitcoin exchange?  Perhaps fiat conversion fees?  Trading fees?  Or maybe they wave the fees... I could see them only supporting their own bank accounts for ACH transfers.  Not exactly decentralized and unbiased, if you ask me.  But the average US-based Joe bitcoiner might see this as a "lesser of two evils" as opposed to relying on Coinbase and the foreign bitcoin exchanges for everything bitcoin-related.

If a US bank jumped in, I could see others follow in short order...

Good lord, the media spin already... sheesh that was fast   

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/01/28/in-praise-of-bitcoin-with-little-regard-for-banks/?_php=true&_type=blogs&_php=true&_type=blogs&_r=1&