why does blockchain.info say 2011 high was ~$35/btc?
Blockchain.info uses Mt. Gox information, which AFAIK displays the last trade in any currency, not just USD. Bitcoincharts.com uses only the last trade in USD. |
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If you need more proof I can send you screenshots of the emails to you in pm's theymos.
This isn't sufficient proof because screenshots can be easily faked. The terms of your work also seem a little unclear. Is there a reason he isn't tagged? He hasn't defended himself once, and I think the burden of proof has been met. |
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I been scammed of 0,5BTC . i know its a little...but took me some time to earn it and i been scammed. is there any way to get it back?
Bitcoin is just money. If someone stole $17 from your wallet, what would you do? If it were a larger amount, you would call the police. But with just $17, you might just ruin the guy's reputation and let it go. There should be no difference in reasoning. |
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Once a newbie signed up for BitcoinTalk to beg. "I lost all my BTC in the recent NakamotoDICE theft", he said.
A long-time forum user asked him to stop yelling while he considered the request.
The forum user then PM'd the newbie and said, "You're a liar. I contacted NakamotoDICE and they say all BTC funds will be refunded."
"Well, sir, you're an even bigger liar," the newbie replied, "because NakamotoDICE doesn't even exist."
Has it been ruined yet?
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i pay with PP
you send first
Aye aye aye... |
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Although I don't believe the BLS's numbers are exact, they probably aren't too far off.[/url]Look into the details sometime about how they calculate their inflation numbers.
If they're off, it's in the direction that strengthens my argument. I highly doubt we've been having negative true CPIs recently. |
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The true price of one bitcoin is whatever someone is willing to pay for it, whether it's chickens, goats, gold, or fiat. I'm not really following your connection to CPI in this context.
It's possible that eventually a stable BTC price could be used to help measure monetary inflation over time, but I think that's way off into the future when more data points have been observed. Meanwhile commodity prices are a great indicator of monetary inflation. Sugar prices in particular tend to react quickly to inflation spikes.
The BLS' numbers are so far astray from reality at this point that they shouldn't be used for anything save to provide a butt for jokes. If you mean that some of the independently calculated and corrected CPI numbers could be used to justify a BTC price move then I could go along with that.
That's what CPI measures: true price, in chickens, goats, gold, etc. (i.e. what consumers buy). Although I don't believe the BLS's numbers are exact, they probably aren't too far off. At this point, the price of a BTC is similar to that at the June 2011 peak—not far over and not far under. That's all I'm saying. |
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When most people talk of "inflation", they usually mean increase in prices, not money supply inflation. That's why we say the US underwent a period of "deflation" even though money supply was drastically increasing. That's true because J6P has a fundamental misunderstanding of what's happening. The natural tendency is for prices to decrease as productivity increases, but inflation of the monetary supply causes prices to stagnate or rise, so most people think that higher prices over time are natural and they say "damn that inflation", when they should be saying "damn that fed". A deflationary period in the economy is simply a period of increased debt repayment(or defaults) as these cause a reduction in the monetary supply(debt). Simply pumping out more fiat to combat it(as we are currently doing) doesn't change the velocity of money, and as a result you can have simultaneous inflation and deflation. There are entirely too few data points to consider the USD/BTC price to be a true indication of CPI, though it's likely more accurate than DC's fairy tale. Still, using money supply/velocity to estimate CPI is a bad idea. Money velocity is difficult to measure and only roughly correlated with CPI. If you're looking for the true price of one Bitcoin, CPI is the answer, not money supply. |
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...
Isn't this the same as the market capitalization, but scaled down by the number of bitcoins on whatever date? When most people talk of "inflation", they usually mean increase in prices, not money supply inflation. That's why we say the US underwent a period of "deflation" even though money supply was drastically increasing. As such, I consider the "inflation-corrected" value of a Bitcoin to be a true CPI index, which would correct it (based on US CPI) to (currently) just below the 2011 high. |
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We haven't passed the CPI-adjusted all time high
how much would that be exactly? Approximately 33.48 USD. Still a while to go. |
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Bet hasn't been won yet, as we're still under 32 USD as the bet purposes.
Edit: now we're at 32 USD. That was fast! Still not over though, so the bet stands.
Edit2: 32.1 now, so good game. It was close!
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Discuss.
We haven't passed the CPI-adjusted all time high, though, so a BTC is still worth less than it was in June 2011 at the peak.
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Bubbles are characterized by higher-than-average volume and faster moves per trade. This pattern seems duplicated right now. While the bubble is unlikely to pop until ~50 USD (based on basic patterns in Bitcoin price all-time highs), it seems increasingly likely that it will pop.
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And if I send the money to this address, how do they know who it was who sent the money?
Everyone has a unique address. |
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I think Satoshi Dice should mine its own transactions instead of paying fees.
That would require them actually investing in hardware and not sponging off all the other miners. They could hire a pool to allocate some percentage of blockspace to free SatoshiDICE transactions. |
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no more updates?  Update: Feb 2013 kicked June 2011's ass Pretty much. 1. 2013-02-22 W. Avg: 30.462. 2013-02-24 W. Avg: 29.783. 2013-02-21 W. Avg: 29.684. 2011-06-09 W. Avg: 29.58 5. 2013-02-20 W. Avg: 29.476. 2013-02-23 W. Avg: 29.057. 2013-02-19 W. Avg: 28.198. 2011-06-08 W. Avg: 27.25 9. 2013-02-16 W. Avg: 27.1610. 2013-02-15 W. Avg: 26.9911. 2013-02-18 W. Avg: 26.76
12. 2013-02-17 W. Avg: 26.40
13. 2013-02-13 W. Avg: 25.48
14. 2013-02-14 W. Avg: 25.46
15. 2013-02-12 W. Avg: 25.09
16. 2011-06-10 W. Avg: 24.67
17. 2013-02-11 W. Avg: 24.13
18. 2013-02-10 W. Avg: 23.42
19. 2013-02-09 W. Avg: 23.24
20. 2013-02-08 W. Avg: 22.42No month has seen prices as high, and as consistently high, as February 2013. That's why I haven't updated recently: I feel that a sea of bold isn't very helpful. Let's see if this changes by March. |
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Very well-informed article, and I could supplement it with the following picture, the Google trend for the Chinese phrase of "bitcoin":  You need to look at Baidu trend since google is blocked by the Chinese government. http://index.baidu.com/main/word.php?word=%B1%C8%CC%D8%B1%D2The Baidu trend is still at about 60% of the 2011 bubble. However, it has increased by 4-time since 2013, with the peak during Avalon shipping. While looking at this I learned that red means "up" in China. Interesting. |
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There isn't exactly a rate. A few deals have indeed been done around 50.000 for 1 btc, but the majority go for way lower than that, most buyers offer 100.000 for 1 btc and lower values. Since 100.000.000.000 XRPs were done, 50.000 for 1 btc means that ripple is worth 60.000.000 USD now. Do you believe that? Actually, even at 100.000 for 1 btc we are evaluating it at 30.000.000 USD. There is a lot of speculative optimism on my offer.
That's the Bitstamp rate, where people are buying and selling at. Saying that this is "speculative optimism" is like someone buying bitcoins at $20 per BTC, with the rationale "do you really believe Bitcoin is worth 300000000 USD?". In short, "others are buying too high!!1" is not a valid argument for an unreasonable price. |
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