Well the markets are painting a BEAUTIFUL reversal morning star DOJI on both the 3d and weekly.

The permabull in me see a lot of positivity in this market under the circumstances.  It is setting EVERYTHING up to stage a beautiful rally if the stars sort of align.  There are a lot of bulls champing at the bit it seems to me... they are just still scared, and it's understandable.

That is sort of the sticky bit. :/





(also would nice to see this volume keep up...)

36574 is the ceiling where this starts to look a lot like a V shaped bounce...

But isn't it kind of early??  I am trying to find the information that is leading to this...  Pretty dramatic dead cat if that's what it is...

The stock market is already sort of pricing in tomorrows expected action... but in reality I think the worst is yet to come (big time) if the FED does indeed raise rates.  And unfortunately a LOT of investors still see Bitcoin as a "tech stock".  So if we get the stockpocalypse then Bitcoin is likely to suffer as well... Just like 3/20.  But in reality that is an incorrect take on the part of the market that does not realize that BTC actually represents safety in times like this.  Not matured to that point, I am afraid.  This is the main drive for another leg down, and then a lower low which would be a pivotal, and sad thing for us...

Interestingly in my opinion the greater risk to Bitcoin would be a mixed blessing...  and that would be governments against the west saying they will use BTC instead of the dollar at the beginning of conflict.  But all arrows point away from that interestingly... With China and Russia at least acting like they want to ban it.

The thing I am most worried about is more geopolitical, but would have serious BTC implications.

1. Demoralize western democracies for 2 years during virus lockdowns.
2. Divide their people against each other.
3. Begin to take away freedoms further demoralizing free countries.
4. Cut off essential chemicals like UREA (fertilizer and Diesel exhaust fluid hurts food production and commerce)
5. Choke trade routes and cause "congestion" at ports
6. Over run their borders with immigration they cannot support.
7. Then crash Western economies on cue by raising interest rates... and delivering a death blow to the bubblicious markets.

Then what do you think they will do?  After weakening the free world and driving them mentally, economically, and materially to the breaking point.

War.

I hope I am wrong.  But if this happens do not make the mistake of thinking the war began in 2022.

Also I am very grateful to live in a republic, and more specifically in one of the USA's states that has worked hard to keep it's ports open, it's borders closed, has encouraged bitcoin miners to come, has had more sensible virus policy, and will most likely remain on the right side as the divided nation comes under further attack.

What all this could do to Bitcoin?  Good grief.  That's a hard nut to crack really.  War does all kinds of surprising things that don't always make sense.

A second leg up in this little run that breaks 35575 decisively would be exactly what we need next.

Just sayin.

*edit* DING!

Now lets take 36100!  COMEON CORN!

Yeah.  That's true... But retail has not been buying much at all during the last 1-2 years.  And it seems sort of weird for miners to hold out to sell at the exact bottom.

SO CLOSE to a good little short squeeze???



It would be lovely for us to paint a nice V shaped recovery right here at this higher low...  Do I need to take out a little leveraged short to make that happen?  I have never done that before... hmm.

Well...  It's really just beginning to rot.

1.  CSW  "won" his court case in Florida when the jury decided he ONLY had to play 100mm to the plaintiff.
2.  Similarly his European court cases are being seen by the various courts as frivolous and he is "winning" them similarly to the above (as in NOT winning but still saying he is)
3.  Many of the developers "building" on BSV are meeting the same fate as Elon Moist. There are several on the outs with CSW and CA (proof of centralization)
4.  BSV only has 16 nodes on the chain tip with the most recent version.
5.  Transactions becaome difficult over the holidays because TAAL (the centralized database/miner) went on Holiday (lol)
6.  The BSV Electrum team has begun to warn that people will NOT be able to restore from seed words because no one will be able to run the node soon.
7.  BSV has lost upwards of 93% of it's value against BTC.  The fate of ALL alts, but particularly bad in it's case.

After so many years of the fork projects taking up space and value it is nourishing to the soul to see the market do what it is supposed to do.

Exactly.  If you look at that tweet thread you might notice a familiarly named jackrabbit making that exact point.

That's one of the amazing parts.  "Moist" is acting surprised that "Holdlonaut" is seeing karma in this circumstance in spite of the fact that I distinctly remember "Elon" being among the voices cheering on the lawsuits that the scammers brought against him.

The very nicest response a "toxic maxi" could make to this guy is "We tried to warn you".

I personally did.

Jeebus... twitter on a freaking blockchain.  The most ridiculous part is there are more guys like him that want to do the exact same thing on some other blockchain.  The BSV folks actually never seemed to understand that they  were NEVER taking on BITCOIN, but instead were competing against ETH, really...

A little bit of light on a dim Monday.  I feel exactly zero sympathy for this asshole.  I feel a little bit for his family.  But I watched him personally cheer on the lawsuits coming out of the project he supported.

What he built was so CLOSE to a good idea but based on such a bad idea there was no saving it.



One more thing.

He STILL hasn't learned his lesson.  Twetch did not fail because of bad PR!  It failed EXACTLY BECAUSE it was anchored to a centralized chain and the centralized actors decided to kick him out, and the market was wise enough to also value the centralized project where it belonged.  But this is just the sort of failure that awaits those who build on a centralized blockchain and then do not stay on the right side of those who control the database...  Twetch did not fail because Calvin likes little girls.  It failed because the idea of writing the entire internet to a blockchain is a retarded.

Asshole still doesn't get it.  (Sorry to any of you WO brothers who still hold out hope for the big chains.)

Nice fight going on right now... but there are still plenty of sellers, and more coins coming to the exchanges... 

I would REALLY hate to see this do anything more than spike below 30k. But we are going to need some serious firepower to avoid that at this point.  Can happen though... the FED's decision is imminent.

My mind will be blown and my mouth will gape open if we reach sub 20k prices.  But then my mouth will close and I will go back to doing what I am doing again.  Bitcoin is hard to predict.  I figure I am right somewhere around 1/2 the time.

Actually watching this...  lot's of good stuff in it. Not much new, but he is good at communicating his beliefs.

I do not see a strong position as to what comes in the short term.  But he thinks it's going up, and that the anxiety we are experiencing right now is designed to make us sell or buy.

sO TRUE... ALTHOUGH IT'S QUALITY BLACK TAR HOPIUM AND TIMES ARE HARD.  wE IDTIO mAXI NGU-ERS HAVE TO COPE AS HARD AS WE CAN AS WE GO DOWN 85%. 

Well, you have made your position and allegiances clear.  I remember during the (second? I think?) gulf war.  I used to go to an auto shop run by Kurds.  Their position on the war and the US involvement in it was extremely unique amongst folks from the middle east.

Everyone has their allegiances.

I would love all the conflict to END.  But that is not in the cards.

Strategic trade routes, and places with particular natural resources are being fought for actively, and it's getting hotter each day.

The prelude to this great war is pretty close to over... the overture is winding up, and the big curtains are about to be drawn back.  At the very least it will be an interesting show... hopefully we all live to see the end of it.

A shining example of the best position one could be in.  And it is not a simple place to find peace.  I feel certain that your poker experience has enabled you to detach (some) emotion in these circumstances.  It has for me.  That and being beaten to a bloody pulp by bitcoin's bear markets having been here for every last one of them. lol.

I think one of the very worst arguments a person can makes goes like this:

I believe X, but they believe Y therefore they are stupid and I will laugh at them.

The reason it's bad in particular is it not even an argument.  It is just a judgement on people who see things differently.

I am in the camp (to an extent) that you are making fun of and belittling.  I believe this time *IS* different (nuance: I believe every time has been different).  But I also have a LOT of nuance in my beliefs.  If you read what I have posted you would see I have made arguments against S2F for example.

I have publicly said that I think another 80%+ pullback is EXTREMELY unlikely. (Nuance: I accept the reality that I might be wrong and we will see bitcoin go to ~13500). Because this time *IS* different.  The difference is we have a growing number of people who see Bitcoin is a once in a lifetime opportunity, and they will be there to buy it as it goes lower.  They are going to create a floor that is more difficult to breech than past cycles. To go to 13k we will have to cross 30k first.  Nuance: dropping below 30k is a VERY REAL possibility, as it is the next real area of support.

There are billionaires who feel like they missed the best opportunity of a lifetime, and if presented even half of a second chance they will come in.  

I think there just are so few paths that lead to <15k.  Where in the past there was very little to stop an 80-90% pullback.

Another argument that supports that view is we have not increased the amount that we did in past "cycles".  In the past a 90% drop literally followed a 1000x rise.  If you are still counting in "cycles" then you will notice that this was only a 3x rise. so why wouldn't we have a bear that matches? Nuance: or that this bull is actually not over!

I still think the most likely possibility is we see the highs and lows continue to tighten up as we steadily rise.  It takes a LOT more money to move Bitcoin because it represents SO much money now.  Likewise it takes greater effort to drop it as well.

I will also joke about hopium as I express my ideas because I know that I am not a fortune teller and I do not know the future.  There is a non-zero chance that Bitcoin has reached the highest relative value it ever will, and it's all down from here.  Nuance: I think this is particularly unlikely.

Also I have no need to "cope" about anything.  I have been in Bitcoin since 2011.  And I have, for the most part, NEVER SOLD.  The main reason for this is I am just not a trader.  If I were I might be much more wealthy, but it is more likely I would have less than I have now.  Nuance: I have nothing to cope with here because I have accepted 80+% drops as a significant possibility for over a decade and even survived a few of them.

Monero is the only other coin I hold.  And it is a slave to bitcoin.  The chances of it flipping bitcoin as are the generally popular narratives out there are fairly outlandish in my opinion.  Nuance: I am not belittling those with whom I disagree about this.  But I continue to hold some value in Monero because I believe it is extremely undervalued, and in time will be worth much more.

To clarify my position, I do not think we go down tons more.. I think it is MOST likely we drop to ~30k at the furthest, and resume a gentle upward grind after that...  But I also see significant possibilities that we breach 30k, or that we get an explosive upswing that resumes the bull portion of this "cycle".  Nuance: I just give each of those scenarios less weight than the first one.

So, we might be in for a long Bitcoin winter where we go under 15k.  Or not.  My money will stay exactly where it is in either case... AND I congratulate those with the balls and foresight to sell close to the top of this bull.  Sometimes I wish I was wired that way, but I am not.  And from my vantage point it has worked out fairly fucking well for me in spite of that.

Exactly. 

And some people, if they were able to gain power, might actually purposely pull exactly that lever.

Such a catch 22.  There are a significant number of Americans that now will believe the economy is being torched on purpose by the powers that be.

And they might be right.

Or on the other hand they can also keep going the way they have been... and torch the economy.

Yeah.  That's the thing bothering me.  This is not exactly the V shaped bounce we would want...

I would rather my hyper bullish "bear trap" announcements were more accurate... (we are still in a bear trap! lol... it's just really big, and is catching bulls instead for some reason!)

But they are starting to notice what makes the garbage unique a computerized version of the current system, I think...



Oh, and by the way, I am beginning to believe the WEF might just be the most evil organization humanity has produced.  Or correctly, a part of it, as the kraken has a lot of tentacles.

And no, I am not being hyperbolic.