Welp, it's over. The Japanification of the U.S. is now underway... https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/23/fed-announces-a-slew-of-new-programs-to-help-markets-including-open-ended-asset-purchases.html" The Fed also will be moving for the first time into corporate bonds, purchasing the investment-grade securities in primary and secondary markets and through exchange-traded funds. The move comes in a space that has seen considerable turmoil since the crisis has intensified and market liquidity has been sapped." “Fed policy is shifting into a higher gear to try to help support the economy which looks like it is in freefall at the moment,” wrote Chris Rupkey, chief finacial economist at MUFG Union Bank. “ The central bank is shifting from being not just the lender of last resort, but now it is the buyer of last resort. Don’t ask how much they will buy, this is truly QE infinity.” |
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Bitcoin above $80K
But... but... you're trying to say I'll be too old for the $100k party? Damn...  Not at all. Before 2030 comes I'm almost positive we'll see a spike above that. What I'm talking about is the low, or sideways, price of BTC will float around ~$80K in ten years. Or higher. And by that time asset inflation will have been really really bad. The longer that I have been studying the bitcoin space, the more I have come to consider that both the bottom spikes and the bottom floating arena are amongst the more important factors, rather than the various upward price spikes, and of course, nothing is guaranteed, even while "~$80K in ten years" as a floor seems to be a relatively conservative bet...... and yeah, it could be argued that some of us are drinking too much BTC kool-aide, but given the whole way that these matters are playing out, bitcoin remains bullish as fuck.. and surely, hope that many of us (including yours truly) is still alive and well and even feeling powerful enough to witness 2030 and even to enjoy the likely wealth from such passage of events... thinking about it.. a floor BTC price that is more or less 13x greater than our current bouncing around price. For younger folks, folks just learning about bitcoin, folks with a very limited budget or even folks who fucked up in their bitcoin strategy(ies) in the past (not only mindrust, but others), you should be able to figure out a way to reasonably and prudently profit from this decently likely situation, without going too fucking crazy in terms of a target timeline and not gambling too much with your own finances or psychology, either... and even DCAing a modest amount of $100 per month (or whatever amount that you can reasonably manage without devolving into a mindrust-like meltdown) is going to likely put you in a very fucking good (great) place in 10 years or so. Well said JJG. DCAing every month or three is a much better strategy that just FOMOing in during every bull run spike. I mean, even if my conservative prediction of a $80K/btc floor in ten years turned out to be wrong, and it was instead say half of that. $40K+/btc. That's still, what, like 7X higher from here? Tell me what stock or other investment would do that by 2030? I'd be willing to bet none of them. None. Certainly not a corporate-blessed 401K, that's for damn sure. For fk sake, even if people didn't like or want to own Bitcoin, they should at least be buying some Gold or Silver and hold it long term. But the sheeple aren't even willing to do that much. And then ten more years pass by and they wonder why they feel even poorer (Pssst! It's stagflation, stupid).  |
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Bitcoin above $80K
But... but... you're trying to say I'll be too old for the $100k party? Damn... Not at all. Before 2030 comes I'm almost positive we'll see a spike above that. What I'm talking about is the low, or sideways, price of BTC will float around ~$80K in ten years. Or higher. And by that time asset inflation will have been really really bad. |
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Agree. Gold certainly doesn’t look like a safe haven after a 24% plunge in less than 2 months, even more worrisome is the fact that the S&P 500 remained flat during that period. Therefore, is it really fair to analyze any correlation over such a short period? Does that sharp movement in price invalidate gold’s resilience during market uncertainties?
Was the public not paying attention that both Gold and Bitcoin have been running up the last few years since they both bottomed? Gold especially never starts a new bull run unless the "insiders" know what is coming down the pipe. They are always ahead of the public by a few years. By the time a market crash comes, Gold has already moved up from it's bottom by at least 25-30%. Then after a crash is fully over, deflationary assets will take off to try and outrun inflation (or perhaps, because of it). Every. Single. Fkn. Time. Fueled by the Fed's trillions in free money, of course. Remind me in 10 years, here are my conservative predictions: By 2030 - Stock market at another ATH Gold above $2800/ounce Bitcoin above $80K Average new car $30K+ Average 1500 sq.ft. new house $350K+ Oil price? Who the fk knows, the world is swimming in it. |
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There were funky China men from funky Wuhan
They were chopping bats up
They were gulping bats dahn
It's an ancient Chinese art
And everybody played their part
Started as a quarantine on a ship
Then spiraled into global pandemic
Everybody was Kung Flu fighting
The markets plunged fast as lightning
In fact it was a little bit frightening
But they caught the bottom with expert timing
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From my perspective, the lingering question is not the virus, but whether this causes non repairable shit in the legacy financial system. Something has been burning since September already when the repo market got sick. This had nothing to do with the virus.
So I am keeping an eye out for more sorrow (and related scare dumps) before I declare all this over.
Whether Bitcoin would dump as well in a renewed scare dump downwards: we will have to wait and see.
People aren't getting it...yet. But soon there will be a reckoning. And it won't be virus "deaths" they have to worry about. In history there never has been, and never will be, market crashes and recessions without *massive* layoffs following. No doubt it's coming. Most people will be caught completely flat-footed. Maybe that's when the public outrage and protests will finally start. Edit: But don't take my word for it. The Wallstreet 'vampire squid' is already warning it for me: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/20/the-upcoming-job-losses-will-be-unlike-anything-the-us-has-ever-seen.html |
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Social Distancing def.- when your company wants you as far away from the office as possible, so that when HR sends you your pink slip, you can't go postal on them or inject a virus into the IT network.
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QE is like the McRib. It's back for a "limited" time and not good for you.  |
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I wonder if times such as these will eventually lead to stricter rules about public companies - such as after-the-fact voiding of manager bonuses, forced state repossession of nonconforming companies and similar draconian laws. Seeing what is being imposed on the general population in the name of the common good, which is quite close to enforcing police state rules, I'd say it wouldn't be too far fetched.
Talk of strings attached here - https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1240012636013592581I doubt that pinko faggot shit will pass though. There's no way it will pass. The people who will shoot it down it are in bed with the corporations and CEOs that would suffer from it. |
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The money printing doesn't matter. It's the confidence in the currency and the country that backs it that matters.
Yep, exactly. Also, lack of confidence in the alternatives. That may be true in the short term during a market rout. But not in the long term...2+ years from now you will see stocks, PMs, Bitcoin, real estate, cars, oil, (everything other than food prices) soar again to nosebleed levels, while Mainstreet struggles with employment and benefits, overload of debt, salaries stagnate, and the economy continues to go nowhere. Because all the free fiat money is truly worthless, no one wants to hold it. It is simply a means to an end for them. |
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The deaths from poverty in a global depression will make the Coronavirus deaths look insignificant.
Because all the corporations will need a good "excuse" when all the layoffs worldwide begin. People being sent to work from home right now, have no idea what is coming. |
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Anyone else getting random unexpected CLIs on their CCs?
They trying to con me into spending more money or something?
My 2 biggest limit cards each got about 50% limit increases, just now, since last I checked them... For basically no reason..
2 different banks even..
It's like they are trying to get more money out there, and want me to do it for them..
When this covid shit first started I expected more of a credit crunch, limit decreases, but maybe with this fed rate dropping and money pumping, they will actually try to hand out more credit?
GF got a pretty big CLI too just the other day, from yet another bank..
3 banks.. Must be a coincidence?
No, not a coincidence. That's exactly what they want you to do. The banks only have liquidity problems in the repo and other high-risk markets. (In the states we can get 0% interest for 18 months CCs all day long no problem). With the Average Joe, it's inflation they want. They want Joe to spend more money, but they also know that Joe is broke and tapped out with debt. So they want Joe to spend either through direct helicopter money, and/or by raising his debt limit. Either way works for them.  |
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Revised: Trump is seeking $1,000 per head to plow into Bitcoin Ur goddamn right that's what I'll be doing with it |
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Cue the helicopter money https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/17/mnuchin-says-trump-administration-is-looking-to-get-cash-to-americans-immediately.htmlMarket economy?
Airlines spent 39 billions on buybacks, now looking for a handout of 50bil.
How about this: you did not have cash cushion (like AAPL, Berkshire, google, amazon, facebook), spent all your extra money on buybacks, then your equity goes bust, your stock is worth zero, bondholders get the planes, restructure. All money to help should be there to support the company, NOT the stock price.
^^^^ This |
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Guys, I want you to remember something...and remember it well.
It only took ~4 weeks for the U.S. to go from the sentiment of "greatest, strongest economy evar!", "fully recovered!", "stock market at ATH!", to frantically needing another Fed $1.5T BAILOUT that's actually larger than the one need during the 2008 Financial Crisis that nearly collapsed the world economy.
Does that really sound like things have recovered and the U.S. economy is strong? Does that sound like the U.S. has gotten things under control? That the U.S. isn't a zombie economy just like every other country in the world?
People need to get their heads out of their asses, and start buying Bitcoin, Gold, Silver, really ANYTHING deflationary instead of fkn toilet paper and Purell.
Because it won't be the coronavirus that kills them. It'll be the massive heart attack they have when the world economic reset comes, and 1 or 2 zeros get lopped off their entire fiat-measured net worth and they go bankrupt overnight.
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The one thing the public ISN'T talking about right now, because they are too distracted and bamboozled by bullshit: https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1239604208292200449"How fragile must our financial system be that it requires zero rates, $700B in QE, $500B in repos not even 4 weeks from all time highs and still it is not enough?"
Yes, it *has* been that bad ever since the '08 financial crisis: A complete zombie economy hanging by a string. |
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Guys, check out silver price. It's actually in the buy zone for me. But ironically, no one can get silver at spot right now, the silver vendors have made sure of that with a high premium. Would honestly love to own physical gold & silver, purely for the ‘being in awe’ , magpie, shiny, shiny type hypnosis of it but not at the expense of buying corn. It's cool to own some as a hedge, but I have way more invested in Bitcoin because I believe BTC will continue to outperform PM's as a store of value. |
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Bitcoin crashed because the wall street types dumped it to cover margin calls on their other crap. They are dumping everything to prop up their leveraged garbage. Bitcoin held up pretty well given the payouts it had to make.
Actually Bitcoiners should be thanking their stars that this isn't Nov/Dec 2017, and WS traders aren't invested/trading in this market as much as back then. Or this drop would be WAAAYY worse than it has been (think like a 98% retrace from $19K) |
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Guys, check out silver price. It's actually in the buy zone for me. But ironically, no one can get silver at spot right now, the silver vendors have made sure of that with a high premium. |
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