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2021  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 05, 2020, 02:42:57 AM
Thinking of buying a bit of physical-never did before. Worth it?

No.  It is not.   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

I dunno...it's shiny  Grin

..Getting a bit tired of our protracted bear market. We will be truly out of it above 20K, still more than 100% to go.
Don't want to diworsify yet, but there will be a time.


If you have the money for some gold, and patience to wait, then yeah, buying gold is a great idea.  Diversification, which is important to me.  1 oz of gold is more than some 98% of Americans own.

Physical gold only.  Hide it well, don't tell any neighbors, etc.

Oh, yeah, it's shiny too.

I just calculated an interesting stat:

There are, apparently, 2.5 bil oz of physical gold in the world. 1/1000000 of this is 2500 oz, which cost about $4.3 mil to acquire with no guarantees about the max limit of gold oz eventually.
1/1000000 of all btc is 21 btc, which is just $206K, which is about 5% of the money required to buy a proportionate amount of gold.
Basically, you get about X20 for your buck if you buy btc vs gold (as far as a proportion of the world's supply).
The inflation (mining) of both gold and btc is currently similar.
The math changes if and when btc would be at around 200-210K. It would be in a relative scarcity equilibrium with gold (at the current gold prices).

Nice.

So yeah, if you believe that Bitcoin relative gains will outrun Gold relative gains, then it makes sense to just buy BTC for now instead (or a little PM if you want but not a lot). You can always swap BTC for Gold if and when it makes sense to do so.

Also check out Silver to Gold Ratio. It's currently 95.52, a fairly historic level. Because of that some believe that Silver is the better buy rn over Gold.
2022  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 05, 2020, 01:51:30 AM
Cassuscoin thing? They seemed interesting, but were they hacked at this point?

Not hacked, but now there are fakes out there so caveat emptor. I may or may not have... some.  Wink

Thinking of buying a bit of physical-never did before. Worth it?

No.  It is not.   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

I dunno...it's shiny  Grin

Those of us who also own PMs think they are.  Grin
2023  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Cop broke the windows at Autozone which sparked riots across America on: June 05, 2020, 12:43:41 AM
Honestly, how can you be certain of any photo posted online anymore when AI websites like this exist now?

https://www.thispersondoesnotexist.com/

What's stopping the MSM to use headshots generated from such sites when they post deaths from mass shootings, riots, terrorist attacks, or even criminal suspects of such? This tech is perfect for false flag events. The public would never be the wiser.
2024  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 04, 2020, 11:27:13 PM
Man, I bet since Moderna is so close to a vaccine for Covid-19, those executives over there are holding shares and buying up even more!

....oh wait.

2025  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 04, 2020, 07:16:01 PM
Good thing all those stimulus checks got the public spending like crazy again!

Oh wait...lol.



Link or it did not happen.    Angry Angry Angry

By the way, I did engage in a bit of due diligence efforts, besides providing my own lovely counter image, by glancing through various pages/articles of the website reference: https://fred.stlouisfed.org, and I was not able to find the above chart.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSAVERT
2026  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 04, 2020, 06:09:29 PM
Good thing all those stimulus checks got the public spending like crazy again!

Oh wait...lol.

2027  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 04, 2020, 06:00:46 PM
Governments are printing money like Brrrrrr in an attempt to save economies.  The boatloads of money being freshly minted have to go somewhere so it's not surprising markets appear to be doing well.  The surprise will come later when you're paying twice as much (or more) to put food on the table.

It's that massive financial engineering to try and make everything rosy that makes it so unnerving. It's like the games Karpeles played on Gox to try and recuperate the gaping hole in the balance sheet, "I'll make everything rosy," he said to himself. But what followed was disconnect and collapse.

Yep, just look at a stock chart of any country that's encountered mass monetary inflation and then hyperinflation (Venezuela, Zimbabwe, etc.) , and you can see where the new hyper-printed fiat goes. Inflation in equities = hockey stick melt up. Western economies are still just at the beginning stages of the same thing... but it'll accelerate soonish
2028  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 04, 2020, 05:25:55 PM
Politicians are already getting busy spinning the upcoming worldwide "Great Economic Reset" as a wonderful thing:

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2020/06/03/sp060320-remarks-to-world-economic-forum-the-great-reset

But mark my words, middle class wealth will be destroyed in the process, and middle class and lower class debt will continue to grow. The wealthy elites will suffer nil.

#BUYBTC
2029  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 04, 2020, 05:05:43 PM

Well some high profile studies do say that police brutality is linked to the 1033 weapons transfer program. There's a lot more that has been said on this subject over the years, so much so in fact that I find it hard to believe you have not seen the link before.

https://www.cato.org/blog/militarization-makes-police-more-violent
Quote
Earlier this year [article is from 2017], a study conducted by researchers from Harvard, Stanford, Cincinnati, and Gardner‐​Webb concluded that the Pentagon’s 1033 weapons transfer program made participating departments more likely to engage in deadly violence. After receiving 1033 gear, departments were more likely to kill civilians as well as dogs.

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/2053168017712885
Quote
As for policy, our results suggest that implementing the EO to recall military equipment should result in less violent behavior and subsequently, fewer killings by LEAs. Taken together with work that shows militarization actually leads to more violence against police (Carriere, 2016; Wickes, 2015), the present study suggests demilitarization may secure overall community safety.





2030  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 04, 2020, 03:13:24 PM
Blame the newcomer, not the 50 year career politician running for office for the umpteenth time or the Clinton / Bush houses who suddenly are angels of morality.

I don't think power reveals at all. In fact the opposite is more true.

I think the ones who really have power are better at hiding their true intentions and hunger for power behind words, propaganda and deflection.



They did. Trump reversed it.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/28/us/politics/trump-police-military-surplus-equipment.html
Quote
The move rescinds limits on the Pentagon handouts that were put in place by President Barack Obama in 2015 amid a national debate over policing touched off by a spate of high-profile deaths of black men at the hands of the police, including the shooting death in 2014 of 18-year-old Michael Brown, in Ferguson, Mo., by a white officer. Some local residents viewed police use of military equipment during the ensuing protests as an unnecessary show of force and intimidation.

In a speech to the Fraternal Order of Police in Nashville, Mr. Sessions said Mr. Obama had made it harder for the police to protect themselves and their neighborhoods.

Oh you are so right, I forgot that Obama passed that law about outlawing cops putting a knee on someone's neck for 8 minutes, and Trump reversed it...   /s  Roll Eyes

So if you want to debate, try not to make yourself look too foolish.

There already are laws against murder. Hence the cops being charged for violating it. You wrongly assert with your cute little meme that Obama's administration did nothing to stop police brutality. I showed you evidence they did, and that it was reversed by Trump/Sessions. Your response is to move the target and insult. You are not wanting debate, you are wanting confirmation of your own uneducated opinions.


No you didn't. Zero evidence, in fact.

"Putting restrictions on military hardware used for Police departments"

*does not equal*

"Ending systemic racism and police brutality".

Do you want to try again, or are we done debating?

2031  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 04, 2020, 02:54:40 PM
Blame the newcomer, not the 50 year career politician running for office for the umpteenth time or the Clinton / Bush houses who suddenly are angels of morality.

I don't think power reveals at all. In fact the opposite is more true.

I think the ones who really have power are better at hiding their true intentions and hunger for power behind words, propaganda and deflection.



They did. Trump reversed it.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/28/us/politics/trump-police-military-surplus-equipment.html
Quote
The move rescinds limits on the Pentagon handouts that were put in place by President Barack Obama in 2015 amid a national debate over policing touched off by a spate of high-profile deaths of black men at the hands of the police, including the shooting death in 2014 of 18-year-old Michael Brown, in Ferguson, Mo., by a white officer. Some local residents viewed police use of military equipment during the ensuing protests as an unnecessary show of force and intimidation.

In a speech to the Fraternal Order of Police in Nashville, Mr. Sessions said Mr. Obama had made it harder for the police to protect themselves and their neighborhoods.

Oh you are so right, I forgot that Obama passed that law about outlawing cops putting a knee on someone's neck for 8 minutes, and Trump reversed it...   /s  Roll Eyes

So if you want to debate, try not to make yourself look too foolish.
2032  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 04, 2020, 02:36:13 PM
Blame the newcomer, not the 50 year career politician running for office for the umpteenth time or the Clinton / Bush houses who suddenly are angels of morality.

I don't think power reveals at all. In fact the opposite is more true.

I think the ones who really have power are better at hiding their true intentions and hunger for power behind words, propaganda and deflection.

2033  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 03, 2020, 04:47:13 PM
2034  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 03, 2020, 04:07:34 PM
I'm worried inflation is coming, which means even higher unemployment, fast rising living expenses, and many ppl's savings being whiped out.

If you're confused by the inflation/deflation debate, I recommend this thread:

https://twitter.com/TuurDemeester/status/1268207892286656519?s=20

I can't take the misuse of this terminology any more.

Inflation....Deflation....

Here's my point of view.

Central banks are aggressively "inflating" the fiat monetary base.  Since 2008, the US federal reserve has expanded their balance sheet from .8T to 7.1T.    Post 1
https://twitter.com/PrestonPysh/status/1268204131816218625?s=20

And a whole thread over it.....


Everything that Preston Pysh wrote is DEAD on, and I wish more people around the globe understood this.

Couple what he laid out with this article that describes how MMT espouses excessive money printing combined with lowering interest rates below 4% actually have the *opposite* effect of what the Fed wants to happen:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/here-stunning-chart-blows-all-modern-central-banking

Quote
But what about the relationship between rates and savings, and by extension inflation? After all that is the topic of this post. Well, we can now confirm that our intuition from 2015 that negative rates are not only not inflationary but outright deflationary, and encourage consumers to save even more, was correct all along.

Below we post a chart from the latest Research Investment Committee report by BofA titled "Stagnation, stagflation or elevation", which with just one image blows up everything that is flawed with monetary policy. It shows that while lower rates indeed stimulate spending and lead to lower savings, this effect peaks at around 4% and then goes negative. In fact, the lower yields - and rates - drop below 4% - not to mention to 0% or below - the lower the propensity to spend and the higher the savings rate!


2035  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 02, 2020, 06:49:00 PM
Until this buying volume...



Looks like this buying volume



...we're not going anywhere but sideways.  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

errr...it does not always work this way, especially if we move from speculation to long term investment: see GOOGL and AAPL charts (price-blue line, volume at the bottom):






Yes, but leverage in those markets has also increased exponentially over the last decade, with CBs, investment banks and institutional investors the primary buyers (no mega sellers on the other side). Not as much with the Bitcoin market.
2036  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 02, 2020, 05:01:38 PM
Until this buying volume...



Looks like this buying volume



...we're not going anywhere but sideways.  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
2037  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 02, 2020, 04:29:36 PM
Hang on a sec brb, gonna scoop me up hot altcoin Theta, looks like the next big thing!

*looks at chart*

Oh wait.
2038  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 02, 2020, 02:36:54 PM
The target of local short-term triangle is above $11000. Which will trigger break of long term resistance line at around $10000. And this will trigger break of giant long term triangle with target well above all time high. This is a start of long term bull run.
No shit, really? Thanks captain Obvious!  Grin  I wonder if somebody's still taking this guy seriously?

Notice that none of these so-called "Bitcoin gurus" tell you to buy a bottom low. In fact they always predict it'll go lower purely out of fear. They are no better than the flaky panic-sellers.
2039  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 02, 2020, 02:02:54 AM
Once you have convinced yourself the movement is fake, then there is no longer any need to deal with underlying causes such as systemic racism, low wages and police brutality.  

Actually you're wrong, Hairy. I do believe some of the protesters are well intentioned. And I do believe that there is systemic racism, low wages, and police brutality.

But do you think that mass rioting, picking fights with cops, looting (blatant stealing), smashing windows, overturning and burning cars, and burning buildings to the ground is actually the right way to go about addressing it?

That it's all going to work great, and the state is going to just throw in the towel, stand down the cops and the military, and wave the white flag?

Actually the exact OPPOSITE is going to happen. It's only going to make matters worse, not better.

Peaceful non-violent protest, respect for your city, and respect for your fellow man (no matter what race or class) is the only way to go on this. Anyone who believes otherwise is a fool.





2040  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 01, 2020, 08:44:41 PM
I have always dreamed of being in a gang. For too long my chicken legs, concave chest, fevered panting and micropenis have been the subject of persecution. Now the boot is on the other foot and it's time to round on someone else.

Kill, lash out, stomp, maim, disfigure.

GET HIM.

I'll be hiding round the corner if you need me.

Well...you could always sign up to work for these guys, I hear they pay well and are swamped with work right now:

https://www.demandprotest.com

Wow, just WOW!

I hear it's a great gig with benefits, such as they supply the equipment you'll need to do the job right:

https://twitter.com/64hunblock/status/1266914365355315200
https://twitter.com/JeromeRussell5/status/1267021503100522497
https://twitter.com/benjancewicz/status/1267495959304515591
https://twitter.com/Conserv17716651/status/1267458034273484808
https://twitter.com/DESERTWXLF/status/1267520788476956674
https://twitter.com/KRHogan_NTD/status/1266952860299857921
https://twitter.com/64hunblock/status/1266914365355315200

...and the pay I hear is really good too

https://twitter.com/knows_ernie/status/1267004166528012288
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