Another permabull, checking in. Still entirely in bitcoin, still living almost exclusively on it since June of 2013, still using it to buy all my groceries and stuff, and still converting all the cash I get into bitcoin. Bitcoin fundamentals haven't changed. It's still better, faster, and more convenient than dollars or credit cards. Dollar, Euro, and Yuan fundamentals, on the other hand, are continuing to change, for the worse. So
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That's impossible In future energy will be very very very cheap And it can some problem especially with electronic device Can you show me what is 'free energy' ? This is about as close to free-energy as you are going to get: Someone has to buy the hamster and the wheel though. Just make the wheel, and make the ha... Wait no. It would work if you have thousands running 24x7 Don't forget to feed the hamsters Feed the hamsters, build the system, find hamsters, have a location, dispose of them when they are dead.. Just have enough hamsters that they can breed quickly enough to grow replacement hamsters. Have the live ones eat the dead ones, work on the wheel, reproduce, and die, and the cycle repeating for ever. There. Free energy.
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So, Russia seems to be collapsing: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-08/russia-pain-spreads-to-stock-and-bond-markets-as-ruble-plunges.htmlRussia’s worsening economic crisis is spreading through its corporate bond and stock markets as a tumbling ruble and plunging growth erode confidence in companies recently seen as able to withstand the turmoil.
UBS AG cut stock ratings for seven retail and Internet companies yesterday including Lenta Ltd. and Yandex NV. Petropavlovsk Plc, Russia’s third-biggest gold producer, agreed with most of its investors to a rescue package that includes selling $335 million of shares and bonds to cut debt. More than 50 of the country’s corporate bonds now yield at least 10 percentage points more than Treasuries, levels considered distressed.
“The vector of the Russian economy is just down,” Ian Hague, founding partner at New York-based Firebird Management LLC, which oversees about $1.1 billion including Russian stocks, said by phone yesterday. “We see lower levels of disposable income, higher inflation and higher borrowing costs. The ultimate effect of this economic downturn is spreading to all the sectors of the economy, including retail stocks and the Internet companies.”
Russia’s benchmark Micex index has plunged 7.8 percent in the past three days, while yields on corporate dollar debt surged an average 1.65 percentage points last week to 9.66 percent, the highest since 2009, JPMorgan Chase & Co. indexes show.
The ruble has tumbled 25 percent over the past two months, extending this year’s slide to 39 percent, the worst performance among 24 emerging-market currencies tracked by Bloomberg.
Looming Recession
Russia’s economy is succumbing to international sanctions linked to the Ukraine conflict as the plummeting ruble drives inflation to the highest levels since 2011 and plunging oil prices erode export revenue. The country may enter its first recession since 2009 in the first quarter, Deputy Economy Minister Alexei Vedev said last week.
A metric in Russia’s bond market also is revealing growing concern that President Vladimir Putin will impose capital controls to stem the ruble’s rout. Investors are demanding a widening premium to own ruble-denominated bonds traded in Moscow rather than ruble debt that trades in London and international markets. The yield gap between the two securities has swelled to 0.66 percentage point, the widest since January 2013 and more than six times the average over the past two years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Inflation Outlook
The Bank of Russia is running out of options to stabilize the ruble after at least $2.6 billion of interventions last week failed to stop the rout. Borrowing costs jumped to a five-year high as the tumbling currency sparked speculation policy makers will raise interest rates as early as this week to stem the decline.
And OPEC is helping along, by deciding on Nov. 27 to maintain oil output levels, worsening the outlook in the already bear market in oil. Add to this more idiocy coming out of Russia itself, such as more planned currency controls, plans to ban and heavily fine anything Bitcoin related, and the ridiculously stupid law forcing all online services to store information on Russians only on servers located in Russia by January 1st, which practically none of the international online businesses can comply with, and that place is pretty much going to hell. By the way, regarding that last part, since bitcointalk.org servers are NOT stored in Russia, does this mean that all you Russians will have to be banned and blocked from this forum to avoid any legal trouble for the forum owners?
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On this one year anniversary post I want to give a plug to zerohedge. When the comment above was posted I had not heard of zerohedge. This comment caught my eye I started reading it.
Zerohedge is now probably the only news page I check on a daily basis and I highly recommend it to anyone who was even remotely interested in this thread.
I used to be a fan of Zerohedge too, until they went "full retard" on the whole Russia/Ukraine thing Question #1 Is there any actual solid statistical analysis to show these Kondratieff cycles really exist. I found this very interesting statistical analysis of Kondratieff waves. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9jv108xp#page-1These authors did a tremendous amount of work on Kondratieff waves or K-waves and world GDP dynamics. Their analysis supports the existence of a K-wave with a period of 52-53 years with a level of evidence or p value between 0.04 and 0.05. With data like this it cannot be argued that this is something totally made up. Advocates of K-waves may be wrong in their assumptions or analysis or they may be wrong in arguing that any cyclical behavior seen in the past is predictive of the future but there is at least some data to indicate that K-waves are real. One thing that immediately jumped out at me is the relatively short time period of the tests versus the large period of time between each wave. How do we know that this is an actual wave that has existed and will continue to exist for centuries, and not just random few points within a short period of time that happened to fit into a graph? After all, if I give you just 3 points on a line, you can fit a perfect sine wave to them, regardless that the points before and after those three could be completely off.
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Mycelium has multisig in their "we really want to do this, some time when we actually have time for it" list, but will probably first focus on hardware based security using Rivetz's API instead. ( http://www.rivetz.com/) There is no point to having multisig when you are signing and verifying transactions from within a secure separated hardware, since that hardware will be the point of failure anyway.
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Oh, hey, crap, the year is up. Is anything going to happen with this? I'm tired of having to subtract that 0.1715415 BTC amount from my holdings total whenever I'm trying to reconcile my wallet. Where should I send it?
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Btw, can anyone confirm for me if the HP Photosmart 8450 is compatible? My folks have that printer model, so I'd like to get them an Entropy if it will work!
Is there an easy way to test for this? Like, put a jpg on a thumb drive and see if the printer detects it? Yes, that's how you would test it. Plug a USB stick with a jpeg on it into the port, and see if there's some way to print it. I read through the printer manual, and although it supports printing photos without a computer, it doesn't say if it can do that from the USB port, or if that is limited to just the memory card slots. I asked on Amazon, but if you can just do the USB stick with a jpeg photo test on it, that would be quicker. Let me know if that works, and if yes, I'll add it to our list of compatible printers.
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I was trying to confirm the "cold storage spending" feature and change return process with a simple test. It did not work as I expected it to. Hopefully someone can tell me what I did wrong.
I had an address with only 0.25 mBTC in it. I used the Mycelium Cold Storage feature to spend from it. I scanned the private key and had it spend 0.14999 mBTC to one of my Mycelium addresses, and a miner's fee of 0.1 mBTC. I was expecting to see the remaining 0.00000001 mBTC returned as change to the same cold storage address.
Instead, what happened was that the 0.14999 mBTC went to my Mycelium address, but the miner got 0.00010001 mBTC. So, was that new amount an adjusted miner's fee? Or was the miner's fee still 0.1 mBTC, but the change of 0.00000001 mBTC go to the miner?
Reply from Daniel, one of our devs: I just checked the code - we are combining unpent outputs until we have enough, and if the resulting change is smaller than the dust limit (i.e. would be unspendable), we include it into the miner fee and dont sent it back as change
So yeah, the reason you didn't get change back to the paper was because it would have gotten stuck on there permanently, due to being below the dust threshold. Sorry you had to lose $0.00000347 in that experiment.
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Then I see where it says you "may" get hit with a reputation penalty if you cancel a deal. May? Do you or do you not penalize? What's the deal, does somebody at Mycelium flip a coin to decide whether to penalize each canceled deal? And shouldn't it be obvious that sometimes you just have to cancel?
You ONLY get penalized if you Accept the offer by pressing the Accept button, and then cancel the offer after. If you just cancel the offer, it won't affect you. So don't hit Accept Offer until you are very sure you are going to trade, and are probably on your way to do it. As for the guy sending you requests and not replying, I don't know why, but some people just do that. I get those too. It's not that the messages don't get through, it's that they just don't say anything. Yes, we need to add many more features and much more functionality to this thing. We're working on it.
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will coincontrol soon be released? or is it down on the list?
Any official roadmap link with the next features sorted by priority?
Thank you.
Coincontrol is not on our todo list. Our wallet is meant for personal daily usage, and automatically picks which addresses to spend from to minimize fees. Once we implement CoinJoin, coin control may even be a security issue that could expose the privacy of your addresses. Here's the roadmap so far: Allow lower transaction fees (currently in beta) Support for Shamir's Secret Sharing keys, which are private keys that are split into m-of-n parts, as supported by Mycelium Entropy (currently in beta) BitID support (currently in testnet) Support for tor through nodes accessible over tor hidden services (implemented and being tested on the nodes) Added functionality to LocalTrader, such as more control over trading logs, and improved reputation options, including reputation for buyers so they can be trusted to buy from sellers using more risky means. More selling options on LocalTrader besides just bitcoin for fiat, such as bitcoin for other stuff you want to sell, similar to Craigslist Support for CoinJoin (possibly later this Spring) Support for Rivetz (when their API comes out in 2015) Implement BIP70 (it's a constant medium-to-high priority that we just can't set aside the time to do) Possibly support for other digital currencies Long term, we hope to make Mycelium into a full fledged financial app, with support for transaction categories, exporting transaction history, monitoring spending, being able to use is as a merchant POS, etc.
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3. NFC Pay tapping - 1 Tap = 1 Pay
Not possible. At least not with one tap. You need 1 tap to request the address and amount to send to, then the wallet signs, and then one more tap to send the signed transaction. The reason 1 Tap = 1 Pay works with credit cards is because it's the equivalent of tapping to give the merchant your private key, and then having them only pull out what they need. Why to send signed transaction by NFC instead releasing it directly to Bitcoin network by smartphone's Internet connection? Mycelium already supports this. The idea was to be able to use your phone to pay with bitcoin, using the merchant's connection to the bitcoin network, without the user even needing a data connection (for example if you don't have a data plan, have bad reception, or are traveling outside of your coverage area). This would need NFC for the merchant to send the request, and NFC or bluetooth (though bluetooth isn't typically available in payment terminals) to receive the signed transaction back.
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I Hope these are on the list for new versions:
1. Multisig
On the list, but way at the end of the queue. 2, Offline Signing
Being able to sign while not connected to the web is already implemented, and sending a signed transaction through some other channel (NFC or Bluetooth) is being considered. If you mean something like Armory style completely offline signing, that's not on the list. We hope that a new tech we are looking for will make that unnecessary. 3. NFC Pay tapping - 1 Tap = 1 Pay
Not possible. At least not with one tap. You need 1 tap to request the address and amount to send to, then the wallet signs, and then one more tap to send the signed transaction. The reason 1 Tap = 1 Pay works with credit cards is because it's the equivalent of tapping to give the merchant your private key, and then having them only pull out what they need.
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Source about China? Because everything you've posted seems false from the historical record.
Everyone knows Chinese economic reform started from 78. We also know that its still a Communist country with mostly state owned enterprise. You are trying to convince us that the govt economic policy has nothing to do with their wage growth? The state loosened its policies to allow private enterprise.
There are a bunch of Harvard Business cases that go into this in detail, but unfortunately they are not free. The best evidence, though, is that over the last two decades, over 1 billion people in the world have been pulled out of poverty ( http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21578665-nearly-1-billion-people-have-been-taken-out-extreme-poverty-20-years-world-should-aim). More than any other government program has been able to accomplish. And none of it was due to minimum wage laws. Also libertarians are for the workers? OK that's pretty convoluted. Libertarians fight for workers to earn less. Woo hoo. That sure benefits the workers. Race to the bottom wages. Employers get no benefit from paying workers less. Liberals have been fighting for minimum wages and the right of collective bargaining to negotiate those rights. States that have enacted laws to invalidate those bargaining rights with so called "right to work" laws we call "right to work for less"
In fact, the only differences between the two is that liberals have been fighting for workers to either get some high minimum, or zero, while others have been fighting for workers to also get everything between that high minimum and zero. Just because there is a minimum wage doesn't mean that everyone is earning that minimum wage. Some are forced to earn $0 an hour, or work in the grey market, getting pain in cash under the table, without any legal protections. As for the "race to the bottom" idea, sure, if the current situation is wildly inaccurate and propped up by unsustainable minimums. But the bottom isn't zero. Note that white collar jobs have no minimum wage laws, yet everyone in those positions still gets WAY more than $7.50 an hour. Likewise, factory workers in India and China get way more than their minimum wages too. The race to the bottom only goes on until everyone is employed. Then it's a race to higher wages, as more workers are needed, but fewer and fewer are available.
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You probably have some specific definition on observe I'm not aware of. How do you explain universe actions that are happening while we are not observing them?
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Let's just say there are limits to how far you want to push any ideology. If the word 'absolute' appears in your political agenda, whether it's on the left, right, top, or bottom of the political spectrum, I kind of don't want to live wherever you're in charge.
I like to start with the absolutes of things like it's absolutely wrong to deprive someone of their property or life without their consent. Like NAP. And then I go from there. That absolute, which gives people the freedom to create and own things without the threat of someone else coming by and claiming a right to their stuff is what expands to things like Libertarianism and AnarchoCapitalism, and makes things like Resource Based Economy and Zeitgeist Movement seem very violent by comparison. Ha ha. You think China's wage growth has nothing to do with govt intervention?
Not only do I think so, there is plenty of evidence for it. US and Europe have minimum wage, a whole lot of people earn that minimum wage, and there is a whole lot of unemployment, because you can't hire people for less, and thus less productive jobs are left unfilled. China has minimum wage, but workers in China and India earn more than that, and their unemployment is very low. It used to be that they had a ton of unemployed and extremely low wages, but as more and more companies outsourced to those countries, building more factories and offices and hiring more and more people, the number of available workers decreased. Used to be that every time a factory opened in China, there was a huge line of people outside the fence looking to get hired. Now when factory opens, there's no one coming, and companies have to look for people themselves. This meant that companies ended up having to raise their wages more and more, to try to entice workers from other companies to come work for them. As a result, they now have much better working conditions than the sweatshops that existed decades ago, and pay much higher wages and benefits. This actually became a problem in India, since over the last decade, workers actually got used to working for only a year, and then switching to another company for an up to 20% raise. Now wages in India are not very competitive at all (as high as in many other, even developed, parts of the world), and it's hard to retain employees for a long time, because they keep expecting there to be something better elsewhere, despite the economic expansion boom there slowing down rapidly. So, yes, China wage growth had nothing to do with government intervention, besides government deciding not to be as restrictively communist any more, and allowing a whole lot of foreign capitalism to come in. Don't forget that this exact same scenario happened in India, South East Asia, and parts of Africa, too, so it can't just be Chinese government at work. By the way, in regards to this The American libertarians, as the mouthpieces of corrupt monied interests, mostly wind up speaking out in favor of the right of employers to pay as close to nothing as the labor market will bear socialists are the ones who focus on employers, and think in terms of work and capitalism as those evil rich employers who must be constrained for the good of the workers. Libertarians think of this scenario from the worker's point of view, not the "evil" employer's. Specifically, if the worker that employer currently has is earning $5 an hour, and I am desperate for a job and am willing to do it for $4.50, I should be able to, instead of that job having a minimum wage barrier that keeps me from getting that job despite me needing it more, and as a result keeping me starving on the streets. Or, put another way, you guys think "I should have the right to get paid some minimum amount regardless of the quality of work I do," while we think "I should have the right to a job if I need it more than the other guy, without legal restrictions preventing me from getting it 'for my own good'".
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What's up bitcoin noobs? Just dropping in to remind everyone what a cool cat I am. Still got 97.5% of my life savings in Bitcoin. Still coasting at 250%+ ROI from time of divestment from that worthless scam called fiat. It is not impressive if we don't know how much your life savings is Tough shit, I'm not here to impress you, I'm here to remind everyone what a cool (and giant-ballsacked) cat I am. Fuck you, you poser. Not only do I have my life savings in bitcoin, and I am a cool cat, but I have a cool cat avatar to prove it. You're not cool until you get one yourself
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A classic example of bigger output than the input, is nuclear energy. Nuclear energy uses the aether power. But you can see many other examples here:
If this were true, then why do we need to keep refueling nuclear power plants with fresh uranium, and keep having to dispose of spent fuel nuclear waste that is NOT uranium? Something is being added, and waste is being created. Meaning it's not an infinite source of energy, meaning once we run out of uranium, that's it for uranium powered nuclear reactors. This suggests that the energy is stored in the nuclear fuel itself, and is released when we use it, same as energy out of coal, oil, etc. No math required to understand this. Tell me how much energy we need to create an atomic explosion and how much energy we take from the explosion. Is the output bigger than the input? Yes or no?
It takes very little energy, just a tiny spark, to extract much more energy from gasoline, too. That doesn't make gasoline some magic perpetual motion fuel. It just makes them sources of energy, where that energy came from something else, and can easily be released. For gasoline the energy came from the sun that powered the plants that dinosaurs ate, and then the sun and earth's pressure that decomposed those dinos and converted them into oil. For nuclear power, it was a star's pressure that fused lighter elements into heavier uranium. Either was, energy was already existing, was transfered into a fuel, and once we release it from that fuel, it's gone. Just like a magnet that's brought too close to another magnet, storing up energy, and once they are released, the magnets spring apart and all that energy is gone, or energy added to water to break it into hydrogen and oxygen, and once the two gases are recombined, that energy is gone. Note that in ALL those cases, the energy put in is less than the energy we get out of it. Even for star created nuclear fuel.
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Bitcoin still has another 11 months to hit a low of $150 if we look at Armstrongs ECM model (publc vs private waves)
AnonyMint (aka UnunoctiumTesticles and many other names) claimed $150 by the end of this year, not Armstrong. I don't even know what Armstrong's position on bitcoin is. I know Anonymint thinks it's a POS, because of some ideas he came up with on how to attack and destroy it. Ideas that bitcoin devs and many others explained would not work, even show a lack of understanding of how bitcoin actually works, but which Anonymint stuck to as the absolute truth no matter what.
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