shit i am afraid  could we see still lower levels than $6000? Doubt it. I bet it'll hold at 6. One of the most watched TV shows was all about cryptocurrency just last night. They haven't forgotten about us. The world is still excited about our sector. They are still watching. They are still interested. They are still greedy. Give them half an excuse, show them just a little green, and they will be clamoring to buy at prices they were dreaming they could have bought in at just a few months ago. There was a nice pic of a cabin a few pages back. Grats on whoever is building that.
Thanks! |
|
|
|
Ok. You have annoyed me beyond what I am willing to subject myself to. I'm ignoring you for a while. Have a nice time. |
|
|
|
The main reason I'm bearish is because I was the most bullish I have ever been on bitcoin in my life just a few days ago and this decline took me more off guard than any thing else ever has in this market. I have never been that wrong before. I was so wrong that I actually gave the normies that asked me for advice the wrong advice for the first time ever. So I adapted. I took some of my crypto portfolio into USD and but put in a stop to prevent me from being punished too hard.
How about an insurance? A leveraged short as a hedge, built gradually and pre-calculated to liquidate at an arbitrary level of your choice. Say, 21k. Or 30k. The higher the cutoff level, the costlier the hedge of course, to guarantee similar performance at 5k. Or 3k. 1k? Hm maybe. I'm an american though so I cant get on bitfinex. What do you suppose is the best alternative to bitfinex for leveraged contracts like that? |
|
|
|
If this were a science we could all be rich. I cant provide evidence for why the price will go up or down in the short run. That is an unreasonable standard. No one can do that. I am going to do my best to explain my position as clearly as possible. If that isn't good enough for you than you can just piss right the fuck off. Also let me be clear. I'm not trying to convince anyone of anything. I'm just sharing my experience and my thought processes. If they fail to meet the expectations of your vastly superior intellect well then too damn bad. I do the best I can and I have done pretty well for myself so far. Look at my post here from a few pages back. It made a very solid looking bottom with very reasonable growth coming out of that bottom, a healthy and calm retracement down to about half of that run up then further upside that broke out past the last high. It's just what bitcoin charts have looked like to me when the bottom was in in the past. It looked like textbook - people are done freaking out so therefore we can resume the more general trend that is up. And ultimately I am a bull long term. So when ever people stop freaking out and cool their heads after a mania bitcoin tends to resume the general multi year bull trend.
Hopefully that passes your "logic" requirements. I was the most bullish I have ever been at the start of this month. In fact I was so bullish that I was actually saying yes to normies that asked me if they should buy bitcoin. I hadn't done that since pre 1000. I was partly so bullish because of the logical articulable reasons described above, but also partly because of intuition. I have been staring at these charts every day for 8 years. I have gotten to the point where it is pretty rare that I am wrong. If you want evidence for that, than too bad, I haven't put any public predictions on record that I know how to find because again, I'm not trying to convince anyone of anything. The main reason I'm bearish is because I was the most bullish I have ever been on bitcoin in my life just a few days ago and this decline took me more off guard than any thing else ever has in this market. I have never been that wrong before. I was so wrong that I actually gave the normies that asked me for advice the wrong advice for the first time ever. So I adapted. I took some of my crypto portfolio into USD and but put in a stop to prevent me from being punished too hard. If you can't respect that than I'm sorry. I just gave you everything I have. If you still want to accuse me of lacking logic or reason than we will just have to part ways and stop talking to each other. I don't want to do that though because you are a legendary and I respect that and we are on the same team. |
|
|
|
Imagine if a similar proportion of the daily liquidity in usd was dumped into FX markets over a couple of months. That would amount to roughly 700bn. Nuclear winter? Perhaps literally so.
Just wait until all the people trading in traditional financial markets are kids who cut their teeth on crypto. What would have caused panic, mass hystaria, and accusations of russion infiltration today will instead cause yawns, shrugs and quiet resigned sips of coffee. |
|
|
|
What was your thesis for a March pump?
'Standard View'
BTC ran up 10,000%, a massive multi-year correction is then absolutely necessary. Given the increase in infrastructure and adoption the most likely effect is a shallower, longer winter. (The more something represents the entire system the slower it moves, economies move in decades long cycles, BTC could have month long cycles starting out. Lows around -75-80% off the ATH.
'Miracle 2013 style double top'
We ran out of new suckers, that is why the price stopped going up. Double top would need:
-New even larger wave of speculators. Coinbase was the #1 app, on TV every night, major exchanges in all countries with rich speculators. The next level up requires infrastructure that is years away at best
-Belief that 100k is possible. No one will pay 20 unless they think someone will pay 40, 40 buyer needs to believe in 80 buyer coming etc. A drop to 6k erodes this
-All the stuck bagholders have to get even or accept their losses, this places a huge ask capping any rallies
Honestly. I know this sounds stupid but intuition. I have been staring at bitcoin charts for 8 years now. It made a very solid looking bottom with very reasonable growth coming out of that bottom, a healthy and calm retracement down to about half of that run up then further upside that broke out past the last high. It's just what bitcoin charts have looked like to me when the bottom was in in the past. It looked like textbook - people are done freaking out so therefore we can resume the more general trend that is up. And ultimately I am a bull long term. So when ever people stop freaking out and cool their heads after a mania bitcoin tends to resume the general multi year bull trend. I hope that made some sort of sense. |
|
|
|
I can’t think of anywhere you are more likely to die in a random hail of gunfire or be eaten by cannibals than being surrounded by 6,000 preppers.
Take a yacht with food and medical supplies out into the Pacific. A monohull so you can take a knock down in a storm and pop straight back up again.
Or a seastead. I'm starting to get excited here in French Polynesia about things moving forward on that front. Good things coming soon (tm). Any pictures you are able to share would be welcome. Even if it’s only baguettes and palm trees. No baguettes and only shadows of palm trees...but this was my breakfast yesterday morning just outside of my bedroom.  And the sunset on the first day I moved in (before I started cleaning up the beach)  Cabin in the mountains is more my speed.  My baby is almost done! One more month or so. Is it just me or is the mood in here turning very #CRAEFULGANG?
Isn't it good to retest support? I guess it was a successful test. 2 dips below 8500, and one below 8800. I got a feeling Asia is sick of buying at this price... maybe looking to find cheaper today... (3 times in a row)  I have never been so sure in my life that bitcoin was going to go bullish early march. I was approaching 99% sure of my bullish sentiment. And I'm not usually wrong. I'm willing to admit when I dont know, which is often, but when I decide that I do know I have always been right. That kick in the teeth of being not just a little bit wrong but so extraordinarily 100% 180 degrees wrong sent me from the most bullish I have ever been to the most bearish. At this point I'm waiting for a retest of 6k atleast. It really really really should have been off to the races from like the third of this month. This pullback should not have been as dramatic as it was... You come off as such a wize soul. NOT. This above post demonstrates your nonsensical mud, and seeming inclination to talk your book -- -yeah right.. you went from the most bullish to the most bearish just a couple of weeks ago, and now you want to tell the world about your supposed enlightened transformation.  Get a fucking grip, book talker....  Is this a thread for talking about price predictions or a thread for circle jerking about the moon? Is that the only opinion I am allowed to have? BUY BUY BUY MOON MOON MOON. |
|
|
|
Is it just me or is the mood in here turning very #CRAEFULGANG?
Isn't it good to retest support? I guess it was a successful test. 2 dips below 8500, and one below 8800. I got a feeling Asia is sick of buying at this price... maybe looking to find cheaper today... (3 times in a row) I have never been so sure in my life that bitcoin was going to go bullish early march. I was approaching 99% sure of my bullish sentiment. And I'm not usually wrong. I'm willing to admit when I dont know, which is often, but when I decide that I do know I have always been right. That kick in the teeth of being not just a little bit wrong but so extraordinarily 100% 180 degrees wrong sent me from the most bullish I have ever been to the most bearish. At this point I'm waiting for a retest of 6k atleast. It really really really should have been off to the races from like the third of this month. This pullback should not have been as dramatic as it was... |
|
|
|
GPG is cool too but what about just a Secp256k1 signature like the original trezor does? You know, on the "sign and verify" tab of wallet.trezor.io? Oh, I thought you were talking about GPG all the time, my bad. Touchscreen works great, I don't have to use a lot of pressure - it feels just like a smartphone. On the video you might notice some black lines, this issue has been already reported here. My hand was shaking a bit, I'm not used to recording using only one hand. Before making this video, I have changed my PIN and decided to use different passphrase. It was difficult for me to type in a passphrase because I usually hold the device in my hand, it is much more comfortable. Youtube link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iuhDUj4JqGk&feature=youtu.beWell it wasn't the answer I was hoping for but it is the answer to my question. Thank you. For anyone who doesnt feel like watching the whole video, the trezor model T does not appear to improve upon the message signing capabilities of the original trezor in any way. Message me a bitcoin or monero address. Which ever you prefer. |
|
|
|
Bitcoinwisdom is no longer being supported if I recall correctly and is kind of abandoned. Which is a shame, it's a pretty good site.
I still use it. Tradingview keeps being annoying and wanting me to "make an account"... grumble grumble. Also his comment was a joke. |
|
|
|
Holy crap you guys. Eureka! I figured it out! Not just a stop gap measure to address the fork ring sig reuse problem. The actual solution! I was just laying in bed trying to fall asleep and it hit me like a tire iron to the face. It is possable to deterministically derive ring sig partners but in a way that would be functionally random to any outside observer. I'll give an example of one way of doing it. Take sha256([your private key] [transaction hash of most recent input]) mod [number of prospective ring signature partners] Then make all of the prospective ring signature partners into an ordered numbered set and use the resulting modulus from the pseudo code above to select one. Continue wrapping around the clock face as many times as needed to arrive at the number of ring signature partners desired. There would be 0 information leak from the outside, the ring signature partners would be functionally random to any outside observer BUT, and here is the beautiful thing, the same ring signature partners would end up being selected on both the main chain AND the fork chain! Of course what I outlined above almost certainly isn't the best way to achieve this. It was just to outline the concept. Merits! I deserve all of the merits. Bequeath unto me thine merits! (well, after peer review, and not just if my specific idea is right but if I'm barking up close enough to the right tree to inspire someone smarter than me) The prospective ring signature partners is a numbered order set consisting of the total number of transactions so what is the benefit of using that as it can easily be determined? Or am I just missing something there? AFA as the concept itself,I cannot comment on except it sounds doable. No you aren't missing anything. I was just trying to be as clear as possible. Said differently, one would use the ouput from that algorithm, call it N, to select the Nth valid prospective ring signature partner. |
|
|
|
ASIC is coming ,XVG and DGB are killed by AISC,obviously，XMR will dump to floor.
Monero's POW algorithm is soon to be changed slightly. This will render any asics useless. Are you sure that minor changes in hash algorithm can help to avoid asics, cause they probably can update/reprogramming their FPGA A FPGA is not an ASIC. This change will stop ASICs but not FPGAs. I don't think anything can do that except maybe an intentionally developed FPGA resistant algorithm. |
|
|
|
Hm. I guess I'm a bit interested in your appraisal of how the touch screen feels when you use it. Is it responsive? Is it too responsive? Does it ever fail to receive intended commands, go off when you didn't intend to, or on buttons you didn't intend to push? Stuff like that.
Unfortunately, it seems that there is an issue with communication between TREZOR device and software. Wallet created by TREZOR works great but both Electrum and trezor-agent, which I need to use GPG, don't detect my wallet. We have to wait for someone to check the code and tell us whether it's a TREZOR or a software fault. Does anyone here also can't use Electrum? It just hangs after choosing to scan for any hardware wallet. GPG is cool too but what about just a Secp256k1 signature like the original trezor does? You know, on the "sign and verify" tab of wallet.trezor.io? |
|
|
|
ASIC is coming ,XVG and DGB are killed by AISC,obviously，XMR will dump to floor.
Monero's POW algorithm is soon to be changed slightly. This will render any asics useless. |
|
|
|
Buying now is a good idea?
Personally, I would wait for either a capitulation candle or a reversal of the MACD on the 1 day chart. It's dangerous to try to catch a falling knife. Better to wait for some solid sign of a trend reversal. Sure you will miss the bottom that way, but not by a lot, and atleast you wont get wrecked by further decline. We could easily be on our way to five or six thousand. Remember, 5k, the previous high before the run up to 20k, never got tested. All that said, buying now is definitely a better idea than not buying at all, if those were the options. Well thats my 2 satoshis anyway. |
|
|
|
Been busy SCUBA diving in Tahiti. Noticed the price is down a little. Locals wanting to buy from me. Me telling them I don't sell the dip. Will have to hold off on pocket money for a few.
Wow an old face. Cool to see someone from so long ago still around. |
|
|
|
I’m not going anywhere. I’ve got another 5 years of hold in me. At least. As I have said many times before, I will be accumulating sub $5k if we get there and very aggressively should we approach 2014 Gox ATH.
The only way $1200 is possible if bitcoin would be on the way to it's death. Buying in that situation would be a wrong move. Only if I notice that my Twitter feed has run dry and no one is posting here anymore. If there is still a somewhat active community, BTC is not truly dead. Even if the price is terribly low. Don't forget https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=bitcoin very useful tool as well.
Still not seeing a capitulation candle.
When was the US stock market capitulation candle during the 1929-1932 Depression? The correct answer is NEVER. Those who sold at the bottom of Black Tuesday in 1929 actually got a very decent price. It's more useful as a positive indicator than a negative one. When you see one the price is almost certainly about to reverse, how ever the absence of one doesn't mean it isn't going to reverse. Looking back at the history of bitcoin we see them ~50% of the time. |
|
|
|
I’m not going anywhere. I’ve got another 5 years of hold in me. At least. As I have said many times before, I will be accumulating sub $5k if we get there and very aggressively should we approach 2014 Gox ATH.
The only way $1200 is possible if bitcoin would be on the way to it's death. Buying in that situation would be a wrong move. There was a dip about this time last year. It soon recovered afterwards. Yes but mil$ question where it will be? Still not seeing a capitulation candle. |
|
|
|
Here you go. [...]
Thanks, I'll try to make a video for you tomorrow. Where do you want me to upload the video? Are you okay with Youtube? Is there anything else you would like to see? It will be much easier to include everything in one video. Yes youtube would be great. Hm. I guess I'm a bit interested in your appraisal of how the touch screen feels when you use it. Is it responsive? Is it too responsive? Does it ever fail to receive intended commands, go off when you didn't intend to, or on buttons you didn't intend to push? Stuff like that. Thanks! |
|
|
|
Also I would really like to see a video showing what the process is like for digitally signing a longish document on the trezor model t. Or does the model t still have a character limit on digitally signed text? As far as I can surmise, the ability to digitally sign a long document like a standard legal contract is the only real advantage over the original trezor. I would be willing to send a five dollar tip to anyone who makes this for me.
Also I would be interested to know If anyone has any other reasons why the model t is preferable to them over the original. Yes, I am searching for a reason to buy a new toy!
I received my TREZOR T yesterday ( thread). I can do this for you, please PM me an example document if you have one. I still haven't set up GPG for my TREZOR but it will be a good chance to do so  Here you go. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Integer nec odio. Praesent libero. Sed cursus ante dapibus diam. Sed nisi. Nulla quis sem at nibh elementum imperdiet. Duis sagittis ipsum. Praesent mauris. Fusce nec tellus sed augue semper porta. Mauris massa. Vestibulum lacinia arcu eget nulla. Class aptent taciti sociosqu ad litora torquent per conubia nostra, per inceptos himenaeos. Curabitur sodales ligula in libero.
Sed dignissim lacinia nunc. Curabitur tortor. Pellentesque nibh. Aenean quam. In scelerisque sem at dolor. Maecenas mattis. Sed convallis tristique sem. Proin ut ligula vel nunc egestas porttitor. Morbi lectus risus, iaculis vel, suscipit quis, luctus non, massa. Fusce ac turpis quis ligula lacinia aliquet. Mauris ipsum. Nulla metus metus, ullamcorper vel, tincidunt sed, euismod in, nibh. Quisque volutpat condimentum velit. Class aptent taciti sociosqu ad litora torquent per conubia nostra, per inceptos himenaeos. Nam nec ante. Sed lacinia, urna non tincidunt mattis, tortor neque adipiscing diam, a cursus ipsum ante quis turpis. Nulla facilisi. Ut fringilla. Suspendisse potenti. Nunc feugiat mi a tellus consequat imperdiet. Vestibulum sapien. Proin quam. Etiam ultrices. Suspendisse in justo eu magna luctus suscipit. Sed lectus. Integer euismod lacus luctus magna. Quisque cursus, metus vitae pharetra auctor, sem massa mattis sem, at interdum magna augue eget diam. Vestibulum ante ipsum primis in faucibus orci luctus et ultrices posuere cubilia Curae; Morbi lacinia molestie dui. Praesent blandit dolor. Sed non quam. In vel mi sit amet augue congue elementum. Morbi in ipsum sit amet pede facilisis laoreet. Donec lacus nunc, viverra nec, blandit vel, egestas et, augue. Vestibulum tincidunt malesuada tellus. Ut ultrices ultrices enim. Curabitur sit amet mauris. Morbi in dui quis est pulvinar ullamcorper. Nulla facilisi.
Integer lacinia sollicitudin massa. Cras metus. Sed aliquet risus a tortor. Integer id quam. Morbi mi. Quisque nisl felis, venenatis tristique, dignissim in, ultrices sit amet, augue. Proin sodales libero eget ante. Nulla quam. Aenean laoreet. Vestibulum nisi lectus, commodo ac, facilisis ac, ultricies eu, pede. Ut orci risus, accumsan porttitor, cursus quis, aliquet eget, justo. Sed pretium blandit orci. Ut eu diam at pede suscipit sodales. Aenean lectus elit, fermentum non, convallis id, sagittis at, neque. |
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
