Pfizer announced a 90% effective vaccine recently. Of course, this announcement comes after the election. Glad Joe Biden, days after his victory, was ALREADY able to produce a vaccine. Crazy how fast he works.
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I'd like to hop in on your side of this bet, SuchMoon, if we get enough people for that There won't be enough people... I doubt there will be anybody, except maybe I can coerce philipma1957 because he said he was sure but he's not exactly a Trump supporter I think. Think about it - there is only one Trump supporter on this forum who was willing to put his money where his mouth is on the 2020 election, and that was a relatively advantageous bet on an incumbent. That's really bizarre given the amount and loudness of pro-Trump rhetoric here. Betting on politics isn't a good idea ever unless your bet is better than the typical vegas odds. There are way too many variables to take into consideration and often times there isn't much rhyme or reason on the outcome. This was suppose to be a Biden victory walking away but less than a percent separated Biden and Trump in AZ, GA, WI, PA(?). It was a toss up in those states. Who would have expected this election to be this close? And besides, with how bias the media was, it's not like Trump ever had a chance to begin with. The fact that Trump increased his support among minority voters really does shed light on where the democratic party is at right now, and how wrong the media was over the last 4 years painting Trump to be this neo-nazi that wants to chain up minorities and ship them to the gulag.
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It's interesting to see Biden call for unity when the entire democratic party ripped up Trump and his supporters for years calling them every name under the sun.
"racist, xenophobic, homophobic, Nazi's, Nazi enable" or whatever label would stick to the wall.
Forgive Republicans/conservatives for not coming around.
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Great question. Foreign policy wasn't even mentioned during the debates hardly at all (not even once iirc). *Coincidentally, Joe Biden's foreign policy under the Obama administration was terrible.
As others have mentioned, you can expect Biden to be similar to Obama on foreign policy so he'll be entering the Iran nuclear deal again. He won't take much aggressive action and he plans to execute "diplomacy" through light hearted talks and making concessions to other countries to avoid any conflict so expect North Korea to build up their nuclear arsenals, Iran to probably develop nuclear weapons despite the deal, expect China to gain economic power untapped, and we MIGHT enter a war or dabble in politics in the middle east. Expect a rocky relationship with Israel too.
The benefit of having someone as unstable as Donald Trump as President is that while it decreases trust from allies, it increases fear from adversaries. I don't think anyone was expecting Trump to take out Baghdadi or Soleimani.
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https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/exit-polls-president.htmlTop two issues for voters were the economy and racial inequality. Economy was enough to start Trump off well because I think many people recognized Trump was extremely pro-economy and anti-lockdown, but racial inequality destroyed him. 91% chose Biden as handling racial inequality better, so who knows how many voters that translated to. Maybe that explains his loss in Georgia with the black vote, among other places. I still think Biden's pick of Harris was miserable. No one was happier than Kamala Harris over George Floyd's death...as morbid as that sounds.
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NBC, CNN, AP all call it for Biden.
Election was like ripping a band aid off slowly.
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https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/06/us/politics/stacey-abrams-georgia.htmlRead this article, probably behind paywall but I'll summarize -- Stacey Abrams is responsible for Georgia turning blue this election cycle. She deserves praise from democrats, black vote turned out and cost Trump the state. Now, the unfortunate thing is I don't think these people will turn out for the Georgia runoff election which means good chance Republicans secure a solid 52-48 senate majority. Just about the only silver lining this election cycle. That, and probably the house victories.
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Trump will leave the White House. Joe Biden's campaign manager was insinuating that he would need to physically remove Trump earlier is pure partisan bullshit. He said something alone the lines of "The WH has the power to remove trespassers". Give it a break.
I would have said the same thing a couple of months ago. But now seeing how desperately Trump is trying the create a narrative of election fraud when there is none, I wouldn't be surprised if he calls on his supporters to create a "CHAZ" (WHAZ?) around the White House to defend him. We knew if this election was close that either candidate would have filed lawsuits. Joe Biden, or one of his campaign staffers iirc, bragged about having 4k lawyers on standby to contest Florida if it was close. Trump will be filing lawsuits ofc but judging by his tone in his press conference two days ago, he's already accepted defeat. I haven't seen a more solemn tenor from Trump in years, that tells you he knew it was over.
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Trump will leave the White House. Joe Biden's campaign manager was insinuating that he would need to physically remove Trump earlier is pure partisan bullshit. He said something alone the lines of "The WH has the power to remove trespassers". Give it a break.
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Decision Desk calls it. Biden's the 46th President of the United States. https://results.decisiondeskhq.com/PA was going to flip, AZ was never going to flip, neither was NV. Figured anyone that was being realistic would have called it 24 hours ago, but here we are.
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Don't even have to look at PA. Biden at the time of this post takes the lead in Georgia by ~1k votes with >99% reporting.
Regardless of your political views, votes trickling in by the hundreds at 5 AM in Georgia two days after the election has passed is beyond mental retardation on behalf of state officials.
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Georgia has to get a recount because of the 9k military ballots that are presumably going to be sent in tomorrow. But the recounts don't do anything. Florida's recount bumped Bush by a couple hundred votes so there's no way the state will flip if Biden gets a sizeable lead.
PA is all but gone for Trump which would end this shit show. NC is not going to be decided until Nov. 12th so even if Trump outperforms, we still don't know the winner until the 12th.
Senate is at a 48 48 split.
Another close race is the Georgia Senate race.
David Perdue (R) is at 49.9% and needs a majority in order to avoid a run off which he couldn't get, so we have two Georgia run offs which would decide the senate majority. The other race is Kelly Loeffler (R) v. Warnock. Apparently Loeffler is worth 500 million dollars and lives in a 10 million dollar home so this person is probably some self serving narcissist running for the senate for the prestige. Apparently that was the best republican Georgia could put up.
Thom Tillis (R) SHOULD* win NC, so Republicans are at 49 seats. Alaska will ofc elect their Republican senator, so R's are at 50.
The picture of Kamala Harris walking down the chamber smiling waving her hands around as she tie breaks every piece of legislation is not a pretty sight...Republicans will dump all they have into the race hoping to get at least one.
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Not all doom and gloom for the HODLERS.
Seriously though, I don't know if it's market uncertainty that's causing Bitcoin to sky rocket, holiday season, all in combination of Trump/Biden battling it out without a clear winner decided, who knows? I thought a Trump administration would be better for the U.S. economy, which would be better for Bitcoin long term. I don't know what the justification for Bitcoin rising under Biden other than he would fuck up the largest economy in the world, forcing people to diversify assets.
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States botching mail in ballots...literally two days out and they can't officially declare a winner for PA or AZ. The Georgia state officials have given different numbers on how many ballots still remain. Not like they had months to prepare for this.
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This is going to cost a lot of jobs. But what's even more unsurprising is that Oregon voted to decriminalize all drugs, including black tar heroin, meth, coke, the usual.
I swear voters are too stupid to make decisions that really should be left to policy makers in the state legislature.
On the Oregon thing, I think it's a pretty good move. Why should police resources be wasted on policing something that isn't solved with more police? The way to solving drug addictions and such is treating addiction like a medical illness, which it is. Spending tons of money on police raids, busts, overtime, and so on don't do anything to stop the drug trade. Plus if you want to smoke weed, do shrooms, and so on -- who are you hurting if you're doing it by yourself and aren't going to drive / have kids to take care of. Other laws don't magically go away because drug laws have loosened. If you're a negligent that's still a thing, plus if you get behind the wheel it's still a DUI. The cops already spend resources on the druggies anyways to be honest. Maybe I'm being short sighted, but to take a soft approach on hard drugs which ruins lives isn't a good thing. The fines they hand out for drugs are negligible so it won't deter drug use.
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This is going to cost a lot of jobs. But what's even more unsurprising is that Oregon voted to decriminalize all drugs, including black tar heroin, meth, coke, the usual.
I swear voters are too stupid to make decisions that really should be left to policy makers in the state legislature.
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Trump still has a chance in AZ, as in NV. He could also possibly flip WI. MI seems less likely.
Trump has outperformed predictions across the board. The same is true for down-ballot races. Some were predicting Democrats to pick up as many as 15 House seats, and there was a prediction on election night that Democrats would pick up 5 House seats, however Republicans ended up gaining at least 5 House seats, and it seems likely they will flip as many as an additional 7 House seats. Democrats were also favored to flip the Senate, however, that also looks especially unlikely at this time.
I'm not optimistic at all. Seems like we're getting our hopes up for nothing. Fox News was the first org. to call AZ then AP called AZ. Fox covered this election fairly and I don't think they'd risk calling AZ early. Nate Silver talked about it being too early to call which gave me hope but being down 3 points + is what bothers me.
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I find it pretty funny that when Democrats lose, they just shrug and get over it - like a grown and mature adult would do.
Ummm, where have you been over the last 4 years? Clinton is still acting as if she won in 2016. It is a mainstream Democrat belief that Trump colluded with Russia, despite there being zero evidence to support this.
It appears there are likely some corrupt poll workers in MI. There were a number of vote dumps in which Biden received 100% of the vote. There is obviously something not right about that. Wasn't this a mistake that was corrected though? AP had reported like 150k votes for Biden that was a typo that ended up being corrected to 1500 or 15000, can't remember. I don't think it's a good idea to go down the road of litigation because the fact is Trump lost this. We already know what the end result is. Trump litigates, it goes absolutely no where in the courts, liberals gloat and then get to make the narrative that Trump won't concede, which is what their story was from the beginning. This election being this close and for Trump to lose is just incredible and almost infuriating considering the sort of shit he was against. It is what it is.
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Election is over. Trump will not win AZ.
Thought it was close until AZ flipped blue. Trump outperformed and so did senate/house republicans. Guess this is the silver lining.
I don’t think it is productive to chalk this election to voter fraud. I think too many Republicans won’t want Trump to concede. That’s literally the conversation amongst Republican groups rn.
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We're almost done. The election starts in a few hours (or does it... do any voting places actually open at mignight? I have no clue... probably doesn't matter with early voting anyway) and it will be over by this time tomorrow (or will it... recounts, tweetstorms, lawsuits are very likely).
I have updated the OP with latest 538 and RCP averges. They have Biden up by 8.0% and 6.7% respectively.
Polling places open up at 7 AM. Some states like Pennsylvania immediately start counting mail in ballots at 7 AM sharp. Florida closes polls sharp and gets the results out the night of, so we will know the winner tomorrow.
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