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3681  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: HashFast announces specs for new ASIC: 400GH/s on: November 08, 2013, 05:18:18 AM
Or a 2015 thing.

Quote
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. is making steady progress on its next two nodes, bringing advances in performance and low power. The bad news is it's widely expected the latest nodes add less transistor density and more cost than in the past.

TSMC has taped out several 20nm chips and expects to let customers start designing 16nm FinFET chips before the end of the year. By the end of 2014 it expects it will have taped out 25 20nm designs and be far along in work on 30 16nm chips.  
http://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1319679


Let that sink in.  TSMC expect by the end of next year to only have taped out two dozen designs.  Now think about all the billion dollar semiconductor companies in the world, AMD, NVidia, NXP, Infineon, Texas Instruments, etc. TSMC isn't talking about thousands of 20nm chip tapeouts or even hundreds but a staggering two dozen to be taped out by the end of the year.  

16/14nm isn't even a possibility for 2014.  The only one who will have it is Intel who spends $10B a year on R&D and builds their own fabs.  Even Intel is pushing back 16nm chips to the later half of 2014 due to yield issues. So saying 16nm and 2014 in the same sentence even with "maybe" is just wrong.

TSMC is just starting production 20nm in Q3-2014.  It has never been done before, costs will be extremely high, tons of risk, yields are unknown, double patterning will be required for the first time which present a whole host of design and production challenges, and we are talking about two dozen designs for the entire planet.   Still think KNC said they will have a 20/16nm chip in 2014? (Hint: they didn't.)
3682  Economy / Speculation / Re: Planning your Bitcoin Withdrawals on: November 08, 2013, 04:59:46 AM
Once again key word EARNED.  Yes it would be a capital gain not wages.  It would be INCOME but not EARNED INCOME.

I think you are really asking "so I don't have to pay taxes?". Yes you have to pay taxes.  You pay taxes on ALL INCOME not just EARNED INCOME.

3683  Economy / Speculation / Re: price disparity between exchanges on: November 08, 2013, 04:57:44 AM
Why are people not buying coins on BTC-e and then sending them to MT Gox for a $28.75 per coin and then transfer the coins back to BTC-e? There's no commission on Bitcoin transfers so the only reason I can see for not doing this is if you don't trust Mt Gox to transfer the coins back to BTC-e.

Did you think this through?  What would buying a coin on BTC-e, sending it to MtGox and turning around and sending it right back to BTC-e do?

You would have 1 BTC on BTC-e.  Exactly what you had to begin with.  

If you mean SELL a coin on MtGox for USD and then withdraw that USD, deposit the USD on BTC-e and buy another coin to pocket the difference well as someone said .... if it was easy someone would have done it.

It is nearly impossible to get USD out of MtGox, delays are on the order of MONTHS.  It is also nearly impossible to get USD into BTC-e.  The difficulty is reflected in the different price.
3684  Economy / Speculation / Re: Planning your Bitcoin Withdrawals on: November 08, 2013, 04:52:49 AM
All capital gains are capital gains.   The only difference beween long term capital gain and short term capital gain is the tax rate but they are both capital gains.  The fact that short term capital gains are taxed at the same rate as regular income doesn't mean they aren't capital gains.

So it really comes down to does the exclusion cover capital gains or just earned income.  From the name I would assume the latter but this is why tax attorneys make good money. Smiley

Isn't capital gain a form of income, though?

Yes.  Everything is income (capital gains, wages, dividends, interest, business profit, gambling wins, etc).  They key was EARNED.  EARNED usually means wages/salary/bonus.

 
3685  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: something i didn't realize when backing up my wallet on: November 08, 2013, 04:51:18 AM
Clients with deterministic wallets (Armory, for example) do not have this problem.

could you later import your wallet into one of those and be good? (get those 'lost' coins back)

No once lost the coins are lost.  The coins are "lost" because the wallet generates an address not in the backup and if no updated backup is made there is no record of the private key (if the original is lost/damaged).   There is nothing to import, they private key is missing.

You can however expand the keypool with the -keypool=xxxx command line argument.  Make the keypool 1,000 keys to give yourself some more "slack" between backups.
3686  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: HashFast announces specs for new ASIC: 400GH/s on: November 08, 2013, 04:47:35 AM
Oh well at least we know the difficulty won't be going up too much over the next 30+ days.

Well KNC will be droppping 2.5 PH/s in Nov so I think difficulty will do "something".

Quote
KNC also looking to come out with their 16/20nm miner around March 2014. So that's something to watch out for.

KNC never said they are looking to launch 16 or 20 nm miner in March 2014.   TSMC isn't even looking to do tapeouts of 16nm in 2014 so unless KNC is going to build their own $15B fab that timeline is impossible.   Of course KNC never claimed something so silly.
3687  Other / CPU/GPU Bitcoin mining hardware / Re: 7 KnC Jupiters available for 6 BTC Each, Refurbished. - IMS on: November 08, 2013, 04:03:40 AM
Scammer fail.
3688  Economy / Speculation / Re: Planning your Bitcoin Withdrawals on: November 08, 2013, 03:39:54 AM
All capital gains are capital gains.   The only difference beween long term capital gain and short term capital gain is the tax rate but they are both capital gains.  The fact that short term capital gains are taxed at the same rate as regular income doesn't mean they aren't capital gains.

So it really comes down to does the exclusion cover capital gains or just earned income.  From the name I would assume the latter but this is why tax attorneys make good money. Smiley
3689  Bitcoin / Mining / Re: Separated transactions from mining on: November 08, 2013, 03:29:17 AM
EDIT: posted in wrong place, please remove

You can move it yourself.  Look in the lower left there is an option "Move Topic".
3690  Bitcoin / Mining / Re: Separated transactions from mining on: November 08, 2013, 03:28:35 AM
Decentralized money has two potential problems.

Tx signing solves the "authentic user" problem.
Mining solves the "consensus" problem.  

There is no purpose to mining other than to secure the network.  New coins are the incentive for mining but the purpose is to secure the network.  If you can solve the consensus problem without mining then there is no reason to keep it.

Mining is required as tx signing only solves half the problem.  You can authenticate txs but you can't bring the network into consensus when their is a conflict (two valid but incompatible txs) with just tx signing.

Miners force the network to accept a consensus. That really is all mining is doing. 

If the same "coin" (technically unspent output) is sent to two addresses (A & B) as seperate incompatible txs then the network will be in conflict.  Some nodes believe A is valid, some believe B is valid.  Technically from a tx signing standpoint they are BOTH valid but obviously the same "coin" can't be spent twice.  Mining is Satoshi's way of forcing all nodes to accept one tx as valid.

b]Without mining how would you achieve consensus when part of the network thinks one thing (like tx A is valid) and part of the network believes a different incompatible thing (like tx B is valid)?[/b]
3691  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: HashFast announces specs for new ASIC: 400GH/s on: November 08, 2013, 01:26:53 AM
"For First Batch Baby Jets, the start date of the program will be retroactive to October 30th."

What exactly does that mean?  It is clear that you will receive the extra MPP hash sooner, 90 days from Oct 30th, so around beginning of February.  But how are they calculating the 90-day ROI when there is less than 90 days between the mid-December ship date and end of January?  Are they calculating the 90-day ROI starting on Oct 30th as if you have received Baby Jets?

The MPP calculates what you would earn each day (based on hashrate and difficulty).  Pretty clear that days prior to shipment will be 0 BTC.  The days after shipment until 28 Jan (the end of 90 day window) will depend on hashrate and difficulty for each of those days.
3692  Bitcoin / Mining / Re: Took one hour for the last block? on: November 08, 2013, 01:25:39 AM
There was a 16 hrs block few months ago...everybody went crazy that day!

Sure.
3693  Economy / Economics / Re: The proper way to calculate the future value of a bitcoin on: November 08, 2013, 12:34:05 AM
You can't use GDP without considering velocity.

I agree. I think that's exactly what I was trying to say with my original post, when I suggested that the following was true:

(price of 1 BTC) >= [(World GDP in dollars)*(fraction of economic transactions using bitcoin)]/[(supply of bitcoins)*(fraction of bitcoins used in transactions)*(bitcoin velocity)]

In the above, 'velocity' refers to only the currency that is used in transactions at all. That's probably non-standard. If you compute velocity over all money, it would just be:

(price of 1 BTC) >= [(World GDP in dollars)*(fraction of economic transactions using bitcoin)]/[(supply of bitcoins)*(bitcoin velocity)]

Do you agree with that?


Yes. One issue is we don't know how Bitcoin velocity will compare to global velocity so it makes any comparison difficult.  Globally M0 has roughly 15 velocity.  M3 is roughly 1 velocity.  In other words the global economy sustains ~$75T in transactions on $5T in currency (M0) and $75T in broad money (M3).

My thinking is that if Bitcoin was widely adopted it probably would have a higher velocity due to the low friction in transactions but honestly that is just a guess.
3694  Bitcoin / Pools / Re: BTC Guild cheating / being cheated? on: November 08, 2013, 12:25:03 AM
Here's a strange coincidence - just when transaction revenue was all time high (source: http://imgur.com/fVnj0PV,yklZue7) the BTC guild pool luck was all time low (source: http://imgur.com/fVnj0PV,yklZue7#1)

This accounted for hundreds of BTC lost revenue for the miners.

Coincidence? What do you think?

Ah the joy of two independent events.  No, there is nothing sinister at stake.  It can be proven as well.  BTC Guild only works over Stratum.  This means you can see the coinbase for every piece of work you're given.  In that coinbase you can clearly see that the wallet every block BTC Guild mines to is still the same (along with the Mined by BTC Guild tag).  There's no way to hide those blocks from the world or change the wallet/coinbase without miners seeing it.

I don't envy this "fun" part of your job.  The fact that it never ends has to be an added bonus.
3695  Economy / Speculation / Re: Planning your Bitcoin Withdrawals on: November 08, 2013, 12:12:35 AM
But being the good citizen I always report everything I do to the government because they know best and IRS agents are my heros.

Solid. 
3696  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: CoinTerra announces its first ASIC - Hash-Rate greater than 500 GH/s on: November 08, 2013, 12:06:49 AM
I can't seem to find KNC tapeout announcement.  I believe they announced after the fact but I can't seem to find even the belated announcement anymore.   Still say KNC was 45 days.

That means with three vendors:
KNC = 45 days
Hashfast = 70 days.
BFL >70 days (still not provided any detail on exactly when taped out and hasn't yet indicated they received chips unless they were lying about Aug tapeout it is probably >70 days).

Throw another two weeks for post fabrication work and a week to hedge for any issue and you are looking at 60-90 days (possibly more for BFL) from tapeout to shipping depending on how perfect and how fast the fabrication is.  

Given that I can't really see how Cointerra is going to ship in Dec (31 DEC is 54 days away) and even Jan (31 JAN is 85 days away) becomes increasingly hard to believe if they haven't taped yet.  Maybe Cointerra would like to show us how they are going to meet their timeline or provide an update pushing shipping schedule back.  At this point they have to know if Dec/Jan is realistic or impossible waiting until Dec is just bad faith.   It isn't like they don't know.  They know if the tapeout is done, they know their delivery window from the fab. 
3697  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: HashFast launches sales of the Baby Jet on: November 08, 2013, 12:00:56 AM
Ah, okay, sorry, I'm just getting home... I guess this is bad news for the people who bought Batch 2 with MPP.

I'll run this by my contact and see if she can confirm everyone is on the same page

Well it depends on when Batch 2 ships.  Remember Batch 1 was much cheaper even with MPP.  Batch 1 is going to ship at least 6 weeks late so making the MPP retroactive isn't some huge windfall but more the least they could do.   If Batch 2 is heavily delayed as well then they may be worse off but if they ship on time or right after Batch 1 they may even come out ahead.
3698  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: HashFast launches sales of the Baby Jet on: November 07, 2013, 11:57:14 PM
400GH earns - ~0.39 BTC per day at current difficulty. In the 47 Days from 15 DEC to 28 JAN at TODAY'S difficulty you would make ~18.5 BTC

It should be safe to assume that by Mid December the difficulty should be up quite a bit more, I think 4 boards should be expected.

I agree I just thought I would cover the bases so on the miracle chance it ends up higher than someone doesn't say "D&T that liar he said we would guaranteed get 4 extra boards".   I would bet money it end up being 4 boards shipped per original board for the MPP at least for Batch 1.  Batch 2 & 3 well that might be a little different depending on when they actually ship.

3699  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: HashFast launches sales of the Baby Jet on: November 07, 2013, 11:55:27 PM
As far as I understand: it's 90 days after the shipping date, so if they shipped on Dec 15 MPP would kick in on March 15 if you haven't ROI'd the value of BTC you used to pay for it.  As to how they calculate the number of additional units they send to you, I have no idea, but I'll drop them an e-mail for you.

Hashfast clarified today that the MPP begins on 30 OCT for Batch 1.

HashFast Production Update
Miner Protection Program
For those of you covered under the Miner Protection Program™ (https://hashfast.com/miner-protection-program/), this delay will not affect the starting point from which benefits are calculated. For First Batch Baby Jets, the start date of the program will be retroactive to October 30th. We want to make sure a delayed ship date does not reduce the value of the program.[/quote]
3700  Economy / Speculation / Re: Planning your Bitcoin Withdrawals on: November 07, 2013, 11:53:33 PM
I have been told by others on this board that if you buy something with Bitcoin you don't have to pay capital gains. That seems sensible.

Now say I buy gold, silver, or some other asset and then cash that out. How does that end up working? How can I pay capital gains on something where I buy and sell it in the same day for no (or very little) gain (when priced in USD)?

That is a good question.  If it is a lot of value I would consult a tax attorney.
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