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3981  Economy / Speculation / Re: Silver at 29 ,Bitcoin at 30. this is no-brainer.. on: October 27, 2013, 08:09:39 PM
I think the value of bitcoin is at the expense of the other monies. So $6 trillion will be coming from fiat but also gold/silver I think. Knowing all fiat is valued around $30 trillion, gold $6 trillion and silver $0.5 trillion, taking an equal cut from each would take about $5 trillion from fiat and $1 trillion from gold/silver that is now in bitcoin, meaning gold/silver lost 20% of their value to bitcoin at that point. Step after that is total defeat...

Nobody would notice since gold/silver is quoted in fiat.

Totally unrelated note - I get incensed when people talk about the supposed stability of fiat. The only thing that is stable in fiat, are the things that are fixed in terms of fiat, such as labor contracts. Relative to anything else, such as gold or silver or energy or general price index or other fiats, it is not uncommon to see 50% yearly fluctuations, and 10-20% is the norm.

The perception of stability is increased because people look at EUR to USD exchange rate and see little (relatively speaking) volatility.  Of course this is to be expected.  All central banks debase their currency however they are somewhat careful to keep their debasement in line with what other governments are doing.  If the US was debasing the dollar by 30% and Euro central bank debasing the Euro by "only" 20% we would see a massive 20% year over year move on the USD to EUR exchange rate but if both banks are debasing at roughly 10% (or even 30% or 99%) then the exchange rate will appear stable.

Essentially all fiat currencies (all fiat currencies every created, currently operating, and all that will ever be created) are a race to the bottom.   Purchasing power always declines.

Silver or gold may in the short term decline in real purchasing power if production exceeds economy growth however unlike fiat currencies that is hedged by economic factors.   Demand dries up gold/silver correct downward, the margins on the most marginal mines (highest cost of production) collapse and production is reduced.   

3982  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: HashFast announces specs for new ASIC: 400GH/s on: October 27, 2013, 08:03:35 PM
I'm planning to visit the HashFast office in SF this Wednesday.

It will be a fairly short affair (30m), but I would be happy to relay some forum questions in person. No guarantees I'll get answers though Smiley

Ask them if they are thinking about announcing MPP starts November 1st, regardless of the late delivery date. That's the least decent company would do after messing with their product value and company reputation so hard. If they answer you they are not even considering it, than I know what to think about them.

+1 on this.  Since HF planned on shipping by 1 Nov then then they had to plan on MPP going into effect 31 Jan.  Pushing the MPP back because they failed to ship on time (even if allowed per the wording of the MPP) is poor faith.   There is no reason the MPP window shouldn't be 1 Nov to 31 Jan.
3983  Economy / Speculation / Re: Chances of $150 again on: October 27, 2013, 07:53:28 PM
If you want a position just use multiple price points.
BUY 20 @ $170.00
BUY 20 @ $165.00
BUY 20 @ $160.00
BUY 20 @ $155.00
BUY 20 @ $150.00

+1. That's how I got some coins at several prices down to 125.1 EUR (lowest was 125.0). Of course my cheaper orders weren't met but I least I got a good position.

Usually I don't do "BUY 20 @ $155.00", "BUY 20 @ $150.00" but "BUY $2000 @ $155.00", "BUY $2000 @ 150.00". This means I get more coins at cheaper prices, thus obtaining a better average price.

That actually is a better way to do it.  If the price goes lower your average price declines and as suggested up thread use "weird" numbers to avoid becoming part of a wall.

So putting it all together rather than try to predict the bottom:  BUY $2,000 @ $150.00

stagger bids around your predicted price range:
BUY $400 of BTC @ $171.23
BUY $400 of BTC @ $165.09
BUY $400 of BTC @ $160.87
BUY $400 of BTC @ $156.44
BUY $400 of BTC @ $151.01


3984  Economy / Speculation / Re: Chances of $150 again on: October 27, 2013, 04:43:49 PM
Why do people want to try and call at a bottom?   Kinda sucks if you have a BUY 100 BTC @ $150.00 and the lowest tick before heading skyward is $151.23.

If you want a position just use multiple price points.
BUY 20 @ $170.00
BUY 20 @ $165.00
BUY 20 @ $160.00
BUY 20 @ $155.00
BUY 20 @ $150.00
3985  Economy / Speculation / Re: Silver at 29 ,Bitcoin at 30. this is no-brainer.. on: October 27, 2013, 04:35:27 PM
Not sure why the economy is growing at 0.5% on average.   Global GDP growth is closer to 3% over any extended period of time (say a decade).   Hell population growth is >1.1% annually so if economic output is growing at 0.5% and population is growing at 1% then productivity per worker is shrinking?  I mean that doesn't even pass the common sense test.

The reason that gold and silver have held purchasing power over large periods of time is because the inflation of the metal (~2% to 3% annually) has been roughly the same as economic growth.
3986  Bitcoin / Mining / Re: The biggest difficulty jump I have ever seen on: October 27, 2013, 04:30:37 PM
The real hike is coming when they ship 2 THs ASIC

It would be 10 TH/s ASIC after that, the technology just keep getting better Smiley

Probably not.  We will be at 28nm a while.  ASIC Miners didn't get better faster due to Moore's law it simply was designers "jumping ahead" to smaller processing nodes.  28nm is as economical as it gets in 2013/2014.   It will be a while before 22/20nm is cost effective.

At 28nm it looks like from three different vendors you are looking at ~0.7J /GH at the wall.  So 2 TH/s is probably around 1400W.  US 15A outlet is rated for 1440W continual load.  Now you may say in Nowhereistan the standard outlet is 240V, 33.8A but mining is perfectly parallel.  It makes little sense to sell a 2 TH/s and 4 TH/s unit you can just sell 2 TH/s units and sell some people 1 and other people 2. 

 
3987  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: How do you know how much transaction fee to deduct before sending the payment? on: October 27, 2013, 01:56:23 AM
You should probably just eat the fee or increase your other fees to compensate for the fees. You should not charge users for the fees caused by their withdrawals because the actual fee depends on transactions that other users are making. If someone funds their account with 100 transactions adding up to 0.2 BTC, the large number of transactions will increase fees for everyone. That transaction you referenced is expensive due to this kind of wallet fragmentation, not because the transaction's value is large.

Quote
I have my fees set to 0.0001 BTC for my customers in the bitcoin.conf file

That's unnecessary. Bitcoin-Qt will never use a too-low fee. Even if you set your fee to 0, you will pay fees.

Thanks, I've raised the transaction fee to 0.0005, but now I'm starting seeing this kind of 0.0015 transaction fees which I'm eating up most of it. it seems quite expensive.

https://blockchain.info/tx/8dc313847cb52e4ea11022341314180f5080f870d617c05a49ea5b6bc7772094

how do I lower these wallet fragmentation to reduce fees?
The minimum fee most miners accept is 0.0001 per Kb. You aren't required to pay more unless you need faster confirmations.

I have my bitcoind set at 0.0005BTC per KB but it would still charge me 0.0015 on a 3KB transactions with higher fragmentations though.

FYPFY

Fees are per KB.  Not sure why you thought raising the fee would lower the fees you pay.
3988  Bitcoin / Mining / Re: The biggest difficulty jump I have ever seen on: October 27, 2013, 01:17:37 AM
Why doesn't DIFFICULTY affects price? Any TL;DR?

Supply remains the same regardless of changes in difficulty.   New production remains the same regardless of difficulty.

Now price does affect supply.  When price goes up miners profits (in USD) increase and their electrical costs denominated in BTC decrease.  This fuels more hardware purchases and difficulty rises.  If prices falls then marginal miners (least efficient gear and higher energy cost) get squeezed and eventually turn off rigs so difficulty declines until price rises enough that they are profitable again .... and the cycle goes on.
3989  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: I talked to some people at college about bitcoin and they laughed at me. on: October 27, 2013, 01:10:03 AM
Quote
First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.
Mahatma Gandhi

Looks like your friends are on step two in their relationship with Bitcoin.  They are kinda behind the times laugh at you saw so 2012.
3990  Economy / Economics / Re: Technological unemployment is (almost) here on: October 26, 2013, 05:27:54 AM
And don't forget poetry. Machines can't do that.

Quote from: discourse.cpp
The umbrella
You want an umbrella and all you have is
a flannel handkerchief and a sponge

http://peerpress.de/discoursecpp.pdf

3991  Economy / Economics / Re: Technological unemployment is (almost) here on: October 26, 2013, 04:07:52 AM
Do you mean the government can enact the law limiting working day to 2-4 hours? In free market economy capital owners will simply move away production/services to the country without such legislation.

Governments ALREADY do limit the workweek.  The "40 hour" workweek was established in 1937.  Since then the productivity of the average worker has increased by a couple magnitudes.   We still cling to 40 hour workweek like it is some fundamental law of physics.   No reason a government (or many governments) couldn't reduce it to 35 or 32.

If we are 10% below peak labor then reducing workweek 10% would compensate. 




3992  Economy / Computer hardware / Re: looking for any mining equipment people want to give away on: October 26, 2013, 04:01:34 AM
My 2 lonesome Block Erupters that are plugged into the back of my desktop tower are getting lonely.Wish I would of saw this thread earlier. Mining BTC has this intriguing and addicting appeal to it that one cannot explain.
Ive recieved 10+ messages asking if I have block erupters to give away. Please do not contact me asking me for block erupters. My post  was inquiring for myself to receive any unwanted hardware!!!!!!!!!!

I would like your 10 block Eruptors.   Will pay shipping.
3993  Bitcoin / Press / Re: 2013-10-26 forbes.com - fbi-says-its-seized-20-million-in-bitcoins-from-ross-ulb on: October 26, 2013, 03:53:02 AM
interesting, did not realize that.

so  how would they auction these?  just put up the entire lot of 177,000 btc or 250k, whatever it is?  

It is up to the DOJ.   The sad thing is they have a LOT of experience is selling forfeited assets.  Billions of dollars a year in assets, cars, planes, mansions, fine art, luxury goods, speed boats, you name it they have sold it in the past. So they pretty much have it down to a science.  They will sell it off however they feel will bring in the top dollar. For someone with a lot of money this will be a great way to get some coins without dealing with liquidity issues, or exchange risk, or bank delays.   Win auction, wire the US treasury some funds, get your sizable position of coins.

Regardless this will be a really great headline.  The DOJ doesn't seek forfeiture of things without value.  The news stories of the DOJ auctioning off lots of Bitcoins worth millions will be a big deal.
3994  Bitcoin / Press / Re: 2013-10-26 forbes.com - fbi-says-its-seized-20-million-in-bitcoins-from-ross-ulb on: October 26, 2013, 03:49:53 AM
Not saying it will happen but because of that the DOJ will wait for a conviction before doing anything with the seized assets.

Proceeds go to the treasury so it isn't like the FBI gets to keep the funds.

They don't need a conviction, which in a criminal case needs to be beyond a reasonable doubt.  They could lose the criminal case and still win the civil forfeiture case, which is a separate legal action and they only need to win by a preponderance of the evidence in that action.

Agreed however they likely aren't going to move until the criminal case is over one way or another.   It isn't like the Bitcoins are going to spoil.  They will still be the same bitcoins in 2014 or whenever the criminal phase wraps up, as they are today.
3995  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: UPDATED: Estimate of ASIC pre-orders (11,000 to 13,000 TH/s by end of 2013) on: October 26, 2013, 03:47:23 AM
I think in time all vendors will cut prices in good time.  Vendors want high prices, customers want low prices eventually the demand will dry up and with it the cashflow.  The only way to get customers to open their wallets will be lower prices.      To be fair Cointerra doesn't have lower prices because they are "nice" it is because they are last.  $10 per GH isn't going to fly with a "late Dec" = industry talk for Jan (or later) delivery.   To move units they have to be cheaper because they certainly aren't going to be earlier.

My guess is when KNC and HF open up January orders either they will be priced aggressively or the market will simply not commit.  
3996  Bitcoin / Press / Re: 2013-10-26 forbes.com - fbi-says-its-seized-20-million-in-bitcoins-from-ross-ulb on: October 26, 2013, 03:03:38 AM
Common sense would make you think that the bitcoin community should react positive with this news. Like i said elsewhere, we are years away from them deciding the case, so those coins are not going to hit the market any time soon.... So, we know that those coins will be out of the loop for years, unless DPR strikes a deal, which I dont think is going to happen...

And in the mean time bitcoin grows, and when the FBI finally does sell them, they suddenly have a trillion dollars to spend on privacy invasion.

Technically DOJ.  Forfeited assets are handled by DOJ.  Right now it is evidence but after conviction it will be turned over to DOJ who handles all forms of forfeited assets yachts, planes, gold depositories, luxury goods, you name it and the feds have at one time seized and auctioned it.  Until he is convicted the funds will just sit there.  On the off chance he is found not guilty the first thing he lawyers would be doing is filing to have his wrongfully seized assets returned.   Not saying it will happen but because of that the DOJ will wait for a conviction before doing anything with the seized assets.

Proceeds go to the treasury so it isn't like the FBI gets to keep the funds.
3997  Bitcoin / Group buys / Re: [SOLD OUT] ASICMiner 49 port hubs + 50 units! 1.75 BTC - Hub only 1.1 BTC on: October 26, 2013, 02:59:30 AM
Yeah nice find.

Watts = Volts * Amps
Watts = 5 * 36
Watts = 180W peak


3998  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: HashFast announces specs for new ASIC: 400GH/s on: October 26, 2013, 02:52:17 AM
I don't think pulling wire is that likely, at least probably not with recent construction in a place with code enforcement. Standard here would be a 120v 20 amp circuit on 12 gauge romex... I'm not an electrical engineer, but shouldn't that be sufficient for nearly 2000 watts constant load?  I've done a little bit of homeowner construction to code, and they make you run a separate circuit for just about damn near everything these days, except lights...  I guess the concern would be if you've got an old 15 amp circuit on skinny little wire or hooked up to your air conditioner....

120V, 20A circuit is solid for 1920W continual, 2400W peak.  Most household outlets, branches, and breakers are 15A though and that means 14 AWG.  Might be better in newer construction but wire is expensive and builders are usually cheap.

If someone is looking to do an upgrade just do it right with 240V, 30A branch.   An outlet like this is good for 5.76KW continual and ebay has tons of cheap used PDUs which have a NEMA L6-30 plug.


Probably good for at least 3 Sierras maybe 4 depending on what final wattage ends up being.  My guess is HF puts some overhead in the PSU so 1700W of PSU doesn't mean they intend for it to draw 1700W.  Drawing say 1300W would keep the PSU at 80% load.
3999  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: HashFast announces specs for new ASIC: 400GH/s on: October 26, 2013, 02:28:22 AM
The NEC requires a 20% derate for continual loads so 15A 120V circuit is good for 1440W continual.  
4000  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: HashFast announces specs for new ASIC: 400GH/s on: October 26, 2013, 02:04:04 AM
i dont know how hot hf will allow them to run, but im guessing around 100 degrees is the practical upper limit... heck, if they can quickly modulate the volts/clocks, i suspect they can let them run even hotter.

Unless the silicon was designed for high temp I don't expect the system allowing a junction temp of higher than 85C maybe 90C max.  Hashfast has indicated that the chips adjust clock based on internal temp but hasn't indicated the operating temp.   Of course the advantage of those radiators is if you want to handle higher thermal output with lower delta over ambient swap the fans for more powerful ones.  If you don't mind the noise upgrade em all the way to Delta high rpm fans.
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