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4061  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: HashFast announces specs for new ASIC: 400GH/s on: October 23, 2013, 08:34:05 PM
What are these "substrates"?  Are we talking about the silicon substrate of the ASICs themselves?  If yes, their statement would make a lot more sense



Just a random googled chip image not HashFast processor.

The shinny metal part is the actual die (produced on wafers at a fab like TMSC, cut into individual dies).
The greenish particle board looking part is the substrate.

The entire thing is what most people call "the chip".  For high powered processors the die and substrate will be covered by a metal lid which acts as a heat spreader.

So whatever the issue with the substrate is, they are needed in the step called "packaging" where completed wafers are cut into dies, attached to substrate to form complete packages ("chips").

Processor/chip = silicon die + substrate + package lid + packaging labor
4062  Economy / Economics / Re: my grand plan on: October 23, 2013, 08:25:51 PM
My plan.

Step 1) Print paper wallet
Step 2) Transfer Bitcoins to paper wallet
Step 3) Put paper wallet in a secure place.
Step 4) IN PROGRESS wait a decade or so.

Optional Step 4a) Periodically check safe place to make sure paper wallet still exists and check blockchain.info to make sure coins haven't moved.
4063  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Miner's fee a barrier to mass adoption on: October 23, 2013, 08:22:56 PM
You might be right although I claim Poe's law as my defense.  I have seen too many times people legitimately claiming Bitcoin needs/should work for microtransactions and if it doesn't then it will fail.
4064  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: C# Application to fast "try" to break a public address and get private address on: October 23, 2013, 08:20:55 PM
Thanks for the clarification you sold me.  The check is in the mail.
4065  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Miner's fee a barrier to mass adoption on: October 23, 2013, 08:20:17 PM
Bitcoin is easier to process than cash, and cheaper than paypal and credit cards for the merchant.

Bitcoin is also cheaper than cash.  Most business account charge for cash deposits beyond a token amount.  Usually something like 0.5%.  Larger businesses needing armored car service are looking at costs approaching 1%.  Throw in potential losses for counterfeiting (or detection equipment cost/time) and sure it is cheaper than Credit cards but despite consumer perception cash isn't "free" for the merchant (on anything larger than a hobbyist scale).  Ever wonder why when using a debit card most stores will give you cash back and they don't charge a fee for it (unlike say an ATM)?  Simple they don't charge because it improves their bottom line by ~1% or so for every dollar a customer takes in cashback.
4066  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Miner's fee a barrier to mass adoption on: October 23, 2013, 08:16:44 PM
The OP is right the fees are ridiculous, it essentially makes microtransactions impossible

Since bitcoin's entire purpose was to make microtransactions possible...

Not true.

Quote
Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System
Satoshi Nakamoto
satoshin@gmx.com
www.bitcoin.org
Abstract. A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online
payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a
financial institution. ...

I see payments (transactions) but not micro.

Also it depends on the definition of microtransactions.  If you mean sub $1 tx Bitcoin works fine.  If you sub $0.01 tx then Bitcoin will never be viable.  No public ledger system will.   Any system has a per transaction cost and it is somewhat dubious to try and build a global model which works for sub cent transactions.

Current fee is 0.1 mBTC or about 1.5 US cents.  A company selling a $1 digital good generally finds current payment systems to be incompatible.
Credit card: $0.30 + 3%  = $0.33 fee or 33% of gross.
Bitcoin: $0.015 fee or 1.5% of gross.

Yeah looks pretty good for micro transactions. 



4067  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: C# Application to fast "try" to break a public address and get private address on: October 23, 2013, 08:11:07 PM
So you wrote a useless (and I agree trying to brute force 256 bit random keys is utterly useless) program for fun and want $300 to $600 for it.

Well you have confidence I give you that.
4068  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Once again, Holy difficulty jump, Batman!!!! on: October 23, 2013, 07:55:53 PM
KnC is shipping 550GH/s miners, almost 500 units per day. That equals to about 250TH/s daily!

According to order numbers, they sold close to 10000 units (order numbers below 7500 were supposed to be shipped by 15.Oct., I don't think many more people bought them, even whenprice dropped).

10000 * 550GH/s = 5.5 PH/s increase in about next 20 days

Did I get it right?

Probably not.  Not every unit is a Jupiter and Order # =/= total paid orders.  In one of the posts KNC indicates the Sept/Oct batch was 1500 units (and at the time roughly 1 week in Oct they had shipped 500 with ~1000 units to go).   If you estimate the distribution of models (Mercury, Saturn, Jupiter) by looking at the public order tracking thread it looks like an average of ~0.4 Th/s per unit.  No idea if that is representative of all sales but it is a good place to start.

So that is ~600 TH/s not 5,500 TH/s for Batch 1.   It has taken KNC ~23 days and they haven't shipped all units, lets guesstimate they ship the last unit by Friday that will be 1500 units in 25 days.  Daily production is more like 60 units per day. They likely were slower initially and had a 4 day halt in the middle so their current production rate is probably double that.  Of course this doesn't mean the network is going up another 600 TH/s next week as most of those units have already been deployed.   

Note this shouldn't be taken as an attack on KNC they have done remarkably well with only a couple issues your numbers just aren't even in the right magnitude.  No doubt that eventually KNC will ship >5 PH/s but they aren't going to do it in batch 1.    Batch 2 is probably larger maybe 2 PH/s but KNC has indicated that won't ship until mid Nov at the earliest.  Rough estimate for total network hashrate based on presale amounts and other guestimates is ~10 PH/s (+/-20%) by end of year.
4069  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Ixcoin TODO on: October 23, 2013, 07:41:24 PM
The amount of TH/s is irrelivent to the number of sellers.   1 sole miner or 1 PH/s the same amount of coins are generated.   The amount generated is negligible.  A small number of fools own the majority of coins hoping it goes higher.

Not really difficult to see why there are hardly any sell orders.  There is also hardly any volume (it takes a buyer and a seller to make a sale).   Average daily volume is <1 BTC.   To pretend there is this mass adoption is kinda silly.  Of course you have hooked your hopes and dreams to this so I don't expect you to believe it but maybe nobody else will follow you down that path.
4070  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: litecoin dead ? on: October 23, 2013, 07:27:24 PM
Lol, the the human part of me thinks you're right.

The engineer part of me thinks you should plan ahead for anything wacky so you aren't stuck there when Murphy's Law trumps Moore's law, and the totally unexpected happens.

We already have a roughly 100x comfort margin.  It isn't like current adoption is stressing what todays technology can handle (some complaints about the blockchain being too big aside).   Growth probably will exceed Moore's law in the short term but that isn't a problem.  If todays hardware can handle >10 tps on a home computer (residential connection) and more than 100 tps on a cheap hosted server then even short term explosive growth will just eat into the margin.  


I was thinking more on a multi-decade scale and on any timeline pretty much nothing exceeds Moore's law.  As a "makes you think" experiment lets say we are peaking 1 tps today and long term Bitcoin growth will be limited to "only" Moore's law.  That is a doubling of transaction volume every two years which works out to a 32x growth every decade.

2013 - ~1 tps
2023 - ~32 tps
2033 - ~1,000 tps
2043 - ~32,000 tps
3053 - ~1,000,000 tps

To put that into perspective.
PayPal ~= 100 tps (up to 200 tps peak)
VISA ~= 4,000 tps (up to 10,000 tps peak)
All electronic commerce (bank wires, ACH, credit cards, etc) ~= 20,000 tps
All human commerce ?? <300K tps (total guestimate probably significantly less than that)

TL/DR:
Law of large numbers and all that.  The bigger the network gets the slower growth will become.  Unless Bitcoin goes interstellar in the next decade we don't have much to worry about.
4071  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: litecoin dead ? on: October 23, 2013, 07:07:01 PM
It's wrong, it's behind both Mt.Gox and Bitstamp.

That transaction speed is bullshit - first of all, you do not understand this is highly varying, and that you can wait much more than the average block time, and that no one is going to wait one minute at a point of sale anyway. Actually, no one even waits ten seconds already.

You also do not understand that the time is there for a reason: shorter confirmation times are less secure.

Just do what the credit card processors (and, oh, Bitpay) already do: confirm right away, and take the risk. Or use trusted wallets.

I think we are on the same page, just looking at it from different angles.  I agree that the shorter confirm times are less secure, and that the time is there for a reason.  I am looking at it more as the problems that would happen if the Vlad agenda ever played itself out (Which I think is HIGHLY unlikely), where a total scrap of fiat occurs in a short period of time, and everyone would be attempting to live their regular lives out using BTC as the defacto currency.  There are thousands of scenarios where people are not going to take the risk and confirm right away, and at the same time people won't be willing to sit around waiting for the transaction to properly confirm.  And yes I have heard cases where BTC took over 30 mins to confirm in some odd cases.   Also if fiat was wiped from existence,   BTC would have mass problems occurring as the blockchain is not made to withstand that many transactions, and for years on end. 

I was just saying no cryptocurrency at the current time is ready to take on that much load, and work for all people without annoyances.  Which is why we need some innovative people to take it where it is today, and somehow get it to where a cryptocurrency could stand a chance of taking over for fiat, if that ever did happen.

As for me, I am not a BTC cultist, or an anti-BTC supporter.  I am just a supporter of Cryptocurrencies in general, and am not in any way affected personally if BTC is on the rise, or LTC, or heck even Nuggets.

Why do you waste energy worrying about edge case scenarios especially the asinine ones which exist only in Vlad's mind?

Bitcoin growth will be "slow" and steady.  As long as long term adoption is roughly equal to Moore's law the relative requirements CPU, memory, bandwidth, and storage will remain in check.  If over the next decade the rate of tx increase by 32x it will hardly be noticed as the relative cost of storage will be 1/32nd of todays prices on a per byte basis.
4072  Economy / Speculation / Re: The boat is long gone on: October 23, 2013, 05:17:55 PM
Also, I like the sidenote that, if not bitcoin, then its successor will (probably) succeed.


I dont believe this. The most used wins no matter of the flaws it has, look at Microsoft Operation Systems.

Yup MySpace was at one time the most used and thus always ...

The prior post is correct.  Bitcoin may be "good enough" (ebay) and thus the network effect will be powerful enough to resist technically superior future (none of alt-coins to date) competitors.  On the other hand Cryptocurrency as a concept is larger than just Bitcoin and it may turn out that Bitcoin wasn't "good enough" (MySpace) and its network effect will fold to a VASTLY superior competitor.
4073  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Estimate of ASIC pre-orders (6,000 to 8,000 TH/s by end of 2013) on: October 23, 2013, 05:12:16 PM
Hey there DeathAndTaxes, do you suppose we could post some difficulty estimates on the first page of this thread?

There are difficulty estimates on the first page.  Not sure what you are asking?
4074  Bitcoin / Mining / Re: Just purchased 18 block erupters Buyers remorse... on: October 23, 2013, 06:15:22 AM
There are lotteries with less house edge Wink

The "house edge" on solo mining is 0%.   If you know any lotteries with a negative house advantage let me know.
4075  Economy / Currency exchange / Re: Selling my remaining Bitcoin. Trusted and Reputable member only. on: October 23, 2013, 05:56:45 AM
$22 = awesome host

At least the thread was good for a laugh.
4076  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Can Bitcoin be decrypted? on: October 23, 2013, 04:59:19 AM
Private keys are used to sign Bitcoin txs to "prove" the tx was created by someone with access to the private key.
Public keys are used to verify Bitcoin txs are properly signed by the correct private key.

When you say Bitcoin txs are signed, what exactly is signed? I mean, is everything signed? the outputs, the inputs, and any other parts making up the transaction that I might have missed

In general yes. 

The technicalities are a little complex.

Bitcoin tx can have more than one input.  So for EACH input a simplified version of the tx consisting of that input and all outputs is constructed, that is then hashed and signed using the private key for that input.  The signature and public key for the input is recorded in the final tx. So if a tx has 4 inputs there were will be 4 signatures and 4 public keys.   
4077  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Can Bitcoin be decrypted? on: October 23, 2013, 02:09:07 AM
Quote
Bitcoin uses (I think) three 'cryptographic hash functions' called ECDSA, RIPEMD-160 and SHA256.

Slight correction - ECDSA is not a hash function, but an elliptic curve encryption algorithm. 

Slight correction of the correction.  ECDSA is not an encryption algorithm.   It is a digital signature algorithm.  It is not possible to perform encryption or decryption with ECDSA only digitally singing and verifying signatures.

Private keys are used to sign Bitcoin txs to "prove" the tx was created by someone with access to the private key.
Public keys are used to verify Bitcoin txs are properly signed by the correct private key.

There is NO encryption in the Bitcoin protocol although some clients do employ encryption client side to protect wallet files from unauthorized access.

Cryptography
 - Hashing Functions
 - Digital Signatures
 - Encryption

All encryption involves cryptography, not all cryptography involves encryption.

4078  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: litecoin dead ? on: October 23, 2013, 12:41:24 AM
Litecoin started dying when people switched from mining btc. That created too much supply. This was pretty much foreseeable.

Supply (or more correctly rate of production) is regulated by difficulty.  1 miner or 100,000 miners roughly the same amount of coins get mined.
4079  Economy / Speculation / Re: The boat is long gone on: October 23, 2013, 12:38:44 AM
no guts, no glory.

to make huge returns, you have to take huge risks. how could something be risky of the idea is already widespread?
that's like saying show me a square with only 3 sides...

EXACTLY IT IS WIDESPREAD NOW ANSWER THIS QUESTION:
Tell me an investment past or present(not a stock) that costs $200 or less that anyone could buy that made that person a millionaire. The only caveat is that the investment had/has to be a fully disseminated idea that the world knows/knew about. So in other words the person got in AFTER THE FACT and made millions off of a $200 investment.

I find the fact that because somebody can not tell you an unrelated investment opportunity to return 5000x you take that as proof that what you are saying is right very strange indeed.


SEEING NO ONE CAN GIVE ME AN EXAMPLE SHOWS THAT ITS A PIPE DREAM. ITS NOT STRANGE BECAUSE EVERYONE ON HERE HAS THE BELIEF THAT A $200 BITCOIN IS GOING TO $10000. SO SHOW ME AN EXAMPLE OF THIS IN THE PAST WHERE ORDINARY PEOPLE ALL OVER THE WORLD GOT RICH BY INVESTING IN AN IDEA THAT THOUSANDS AND THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE KNOW ABOUT.

Bitcoin went from $1 to $200.  Thousands of people knew about Bitcoin when it was $1.  There were even mainstream newstories by then.  By your "logic" the rise from $1 to $200 should be impossible. 

The fact that the prior history of Bitcoin disproves your very claim doesn't it at least seem possible that the future unwritten history of Bitcoin will do the same?

YOU HIT THE NAIL ON THE HEAD. THE RISE FROM $1 TO $200 WAS THE BOAT COMING IN. IT IS GONE NOW

I thought the rise from a penny to $1 was the boat coming in.  Shouldn't the rise from $1 to $200 be impossible.  The "investment" had already rose 10,000%.   Thousands of people knew about it.  There was media attention.   It was to use your crude language "after the fact".   It shouldn't have been possible for that second round of adopters to profit 10,000% as well. 

What about the subsequent crash back to $5.  You said $1,000 is possible.   $5 was certainly "after the boat" once again using your redicuoulous logic.  Someone buying in at $5 and selling at $1000 would be looking at 20,000% return.  Shouldn't that also be impossible?
4080  Economy / Speculation / Re: The boat is long gone on: October 23, 2013, 12:21:38 AM
no guts, no glory.

to make huge returns, you have to take huge risks. how could something be risky of the idea is already widespread?
that's like saying show me a square with only 3 sides...

EXACTLY IT IS WIDESPREAD NOW ANSWER THIS QUESTION:
Tell me an investment past or present(not a stock) that costs $200 or less that anyone could buy that made that person a millionaire. The only caveat is that the investment had/has to be a fully disseminated idea that the world knows/knew about. So in other words the person got in AFTER THE FACT and made millions off of a $200 investment.

I find the fact that because somebody can not tell you an unrelated investment opportunity to return 5000x you take that as proof that what you are saying is right very strange indeed.


SEEING NO ONE CAN GIVE ME AN EXAMPLE SHOWS THAT ITS A PIPE DREAM. ITS NOT STRANGE BECAUSE EVERYONE ON HERE HAS THE BELIEF THAT A $200 BITCOIN IS GOING TO $10000. SO SHOW ME AN EXAMPLE OF THIS IN THE PAST WHERE ORDINARY PEOPLE ALL OVER THE WORLD GOT RICH BY INVESTING IN AN IDEA THAT THOUSANDS AND THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE KNOW ABOUT.

Bitcoin went from $1 to $200.  Thousands of people knew about Bitcoin when it was $1.  There were even mainstream newstories by then.  By your "logic" the rise from $1 to $200 should be impossible. 

The fact that the prior history of Bitcoin disproves your very claim doesn't it at least seem possible that the future unwritten history of Bitcoin will do the same?
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