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Nothing in the OP is how the federal reserve works.
If the federal reserve feels there is a risk of deflation they simply expand the money supply. Literally they make money out of thin air. *
If the federal reserve feels there is a risk of high inflation they simply shrink the money supply. Literally they destroy money into nothing. *
They don't need to (and never do) ask Congress for money.
Think about this for a second. The federal reserve can instantly and at will create or destroy any amount of money. Why would they "ask" Congress for money?
NOTE: The "federal" reserve is a private cartel of banks, it is about as "federal" as Federal Express.
If the federal government runs a deficit the treasury will borrow money, it does that by selling bonds. In a high inflation environment this means creditors will demand higher rates. Somewhat ironically this has been more of a restraint on federal spending then any action by Congress critters. In low inflation (or deflation) environments like what OP indicates interest rates would be LOWER not higher.
* By itself the fed creating or destroying money would have no effect however when creating money they then lend this newly created money to banks who then lend it to people, companies, etc who depositor their lent money and via the magic of fractional reserve system the money supply grows. However this has nothing to do with Congress or taxes.
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FBI can't legally dump anything until the whole case goes through the court system.
then it will be publicly auctioned at market prices (not sold with slippage). fbi etc also wan'ts to maximize their returns.
Still haven't seen the legal argument as to why the feds can't file for civil forfeiture in parallel to the criminal case. It is not out of the ordinary. If they did that, they don't have to wait for conviction. If Ulbricht can't win an "innocent owner defense", they can has all the coins. In theory they "can" in reality they "won't". Remember asset forfeiture may seem like a big deal to us but it is routine for the feds. If they win the criminal trial the forfeiture is a done deal. Prosecuting two cases means splitting resources or running two teams. Even the DOJ (and it is the DOJ not the FBI who will prosecute) has limited resources. They likely have a backlog of hundreds of criminal and civil cases. Lastly prosecutors don't want to give away any of their game plan. Having the forfeiture trial first allows the defense team a "do over" on the criminal trial. They get to see the prosecutor's play book and adjust their response. Those are the big ones but there are other minor reasons as well. It just looks bad in the court of public opinion "stealing the man's money before he is even convicted, whatever happened to justice blah blah blah". Even if the prosecution tried the defense likely would file a motion stating they lack the resources to handle both cases and the same time requesting one or the other be continued. So yes they "can" do the forfeiture first, during, or after the criminal trial but in reality they will wait for him to be convicted just like they do for thousands upon thousands of other criminal cases every year. Also not sure why people think the SOVEREIGN NATION OF THESE UNITED STATES (bold for emphasis and officially sounding presentation) is going to use a Bitcoin exchange. Forfeiture auctions don't work that way. The federal government isn't going to take counterparty risk. They will post a date for the auction and if interested YOU wire funds as a deposit directly to the treasury IN ADVANCE. Don't want to pay by bank wire, don't want to pay in advance. Tough you don't get to participate. Remember this is a government (arguably one of the most powerful on the planet). They make the rules and you follow them or you don't play. The government isn't going to put $20M on MtGox or BTC-e (where the fuck is BTC-e located east bumfuckistan?) to have it "hacked" and stolen from them. Never going to happen not in a million years. |
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I would be interested to know which exchange they will use to cash out.
None. If it is anything like the billions of other forfeited assets they will announce ahead of time a day for an auction. They will auction off the coins and purchasers will wire money TO THE US TREASURY and only then will they send the sold coins. No counterparty risk, no waiting 180 days for MtGox to get their act together, no risk of an exchange getting "hacked" and the US government losing their $20M in BTC. No possible way the US government using a quasi-illegal Bitcoin exchange. |
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By DeathAndTaxes view per 4 6990's we'll need 1565W from the wall. Producing 1565W heat output.
60kBTU = 17580W / 1565W = ~11 = 12 of these rigs A 60K BTU heater doesn't run 24/7. It doesn't even run 20% of the time. Buying 12 rigs to run them 20% of the time is a incredibly expensive idea. The only way to be more wasteful would be to burn money to produce BTUs. You are still going it backwards. Find out how much heat you need FIRST (i.e. we need x BTUs per day peak) and then figure out how many rigs it will take to produce that. Note this is academic because GPU mining is mostly dead. Do you CURRENTLY have heat in your house? If so did you have it all last winter? If so do you have a copy of your utility bill? You can estimate the fuel (if natural gas/propane) used and thus the amount of BTUs used and work backwards from that. |
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Simple, answer is none...
Guess the good old days of mining@home have come to an end...? Nothing "comes to an end". There is a lot of risk right now. Prices are still relatively high, there is a massive amount of yet undelivered pre-orders, difficulty is exploding, and you would be at the end of the line. However in time prices will come down, difficulty will be more predictable, and backlog of orders will be reduced. The gold rush days are already gone. You can purchase today likely taking the maximum risk for the smallest reward chasing the gold rush days which are gone or look to the future when you may be able to make a solid but small return with less risk. |
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To calculate how much heat every 6990 in the setup will produce, you have to consider how much energy the computers containing them will draw from the wall. PSUs aren't 100% efficient, and all the "lost" energy gets converted into heat as well.
Calculating 65 W power consumption outside the video cards, we get a total of 1565 W for a computer holding four 6990s. If the PSU operates at 85% efficiency, the whole setup will draw approximately 1840 W from the wall, giving 460 W per video card.
It is far simpler. Computer components (including GPUs) do no "work" in the physics sense. So 100% of energy drawn from the wall will be converted to heat. If you want a 3KW heat just build a rig (or rigs) which have a 3KW load. No other calculations are required. It doesn't matter where the heat come from (CPU idling, GPU core, VRMs, power supply ineffciency) it is all heat. 3KW electricity In = 3KW thermal energy ("heat") out. |
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Satoshi didn't abandon Bitcoin. By the time Satoshi left the Bitcoin project had a dozen or more regular contributors and Gavin had stepped up as a senior developer. Satoshi even made sure to give Gavin the alert key before disappearing.
Hell for all we know Satoshi "vanished" because he stepped out in front of a bus and that was the end. Nobody in his real world life knew about his "Satoshi" pseudonym and nobody in the Bitcoin world knew his real identity to know he wasn't around anymore.
It seems you have a very good ability to turn any negative into a positive. Having no active development, no lead developer, no community support, no active testing and patching = NOT GOOD.
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unrolled cores are not necessarily crappy cores. Agree however they can't be compared directly. It takes 80 clock cycles for a Bitfury rolled core to complete a hash where as an unrolled core will complete a hash in one clock cycle. So clock for clock Bitfury 756 rolled cores complete about the same number of hashes are 9 unrolled cores. This isn't to say one method is better than another. They are just different. Given similar die efficiency a 9 unrolled core chip and a 756 rolled core chip would be comparable size, power usage, and hashpower. Another way to look at it is GN's 768 nonces per clock cycle would be the equivalent of Bitfury announcing they have a new processor with 61,440 rolled cores.  Any way you slice it a single GN processor is a staggering number of cores each one processing a full nonce every clock cycle. No existing design comes close to putting as much hashpower in a small package (Cointerra probably will be similar but so far specs are unknown). And much of that can be expressed as a GH's / Die area, that would give you a measure of efficiency - or in its simplest terms, GH's/S. per square mm of die area - at least when comparing like for like (all 28nm's for instance) Agreed and by that metric the GN is extremely dense. A huge amount of hashing power per mm2. |
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My hashfast contact and I have been working on the cgminer driver for a while for this protocol, and fortunately since they contacted me early, their final protocol is quite different to what they originally had in mind. I'm very pleased with the design overall, and the cgminer driver for it we've been working on will be pushed to a public repository tomorrow.
Glad to hear it conman. The protocol is rather impressive a solid +1 for any input you provided. Nothing like having the guy who wrote the book helping you on the communication layer. |
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Operation at 700 Mhz leads to a total hash rate of 537.6 GH/sec, but sustained operation at this level
may run into power distribution or thermal limitations,depending on cooling efficiency.
Operation beyond this clock rate, even if maintained within power and thermal limits, may lead to
degraded hash performance as hash cores start to make mistakes. If attempting to do this, host software
should monitor nonce rates and/or perform periodic testing of cores in order to set performance limits
tl;dr hey guys our firmware blows, perhaps you can crowdsource something better??
I think you need to work on your reading comprehension. Try running any processor at an extreme overclock and the silicon will produce errors. This has nothing to do with firmware. Simple version: Chip go too fast = wrong stuff. Too much wrong stuff? Make chip go less fast. |
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You might want to revise your numbers a bit.
You won't be running your heater at 100% capacity 24 hours a day.
This. If you ran a 60K BTU heater 24/7 in a well insulated house, the internal temp of your house would probably get hot enough to literally cook you. You currently have heat right? You paid for it thus you can compute the average daily energy use you spend on heating. That is the amount of energy you would need to replace. |
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Inaba, I won't be buying a BFL Monarch or any BFL product from you guys, but I am curious to know if you guys expect to have any delays/issues at all with rolling out the Monarch, whether similar to the ones experienced with previous products, or perhaps not as bad. I'm just super curious and part of my hobby is analysis of the entire cryptcoin revolution. You can PM me an answer if you want. As a disclaimer, I won't reveal your response (if any) to anyone. Given the source why would you expect an honest answer? BFL continually lied to their paying customers, the ones who's capital allowed BFL to even exist. They lied over and over about shipping timeline for over a year. This goes beyond just delays. When you say you will be shipping in Nov (after a 6 month delay) and you don't until the following summer only a fool would believe they weren't lying. Every single estimate, deadline and timeline was completely divorced from reality. Would you expect anything differently now. " Monarch is on track" = " We never had any chance of shipping before Feb and now that has slipped to March of course some unexpected problem will happen pushing it into April and even once we start shipping ongoing issues will drag deliveries out through July". |
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Bitfury chips actually have 756 cores. Sounds like they're using "unrolled" (i.e. crappy) cores. actually the doc says double hash or 768
Not exactly, they say they say each core has two units which "share work" across one "job". Whatever that means. Presumably a nonce range, so one chip would work on nonce 0xFFFF0001 while the other would work on 0x0001FFFF, or some other distribution. Regardless of how they share work each "sub core" completes one hash per clock cycle so it isn't like they are only partial work engines. So 4 * 96 * 2 = 768 hashes per clock cycle. At 550 Mhz that is 768 * 0.550 = 442.4 GH/s. |
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That is the 12 millionth bitcoin mined.
The coin supply will reach 12,000,000 BTC (~$2.4 billion at current exchange rate) on block 270,000 or about 3,200 blocks from now.
When will it happen?
At 10 minute per block interval (no hashrate growth) it will be ~ 21 days.
At current average block interval (~7 min per block) it will be ~14 days.
Interesting factoid, at 12M BTC in circulation it will only require an exchange rate of ~$217 to make an all time high in the value of the money supply (incorrectly called "market cap"): $2.61B
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Finally, there is no motivation to shortening the nonce range in order to drop work time down
to fractions of a second, because HashFast products allow work to be aborted, and in
particular with the GWQ protocol, the OP_WORK_RESTART mechanism provides a built in
command to seamlessly abort all work in progress and replace it with new work based on a
new coin base, as often as required and with negligible hashing downtime OP_WORK_RESTART = awesome. The problem with many ASICs and p2pool is that p2pool generates "new" work on a short interval (about 30 sec between reward chain blocks). Without a OP_WORK_RESTART or something similar an ASIC will continue using "stale" work for a significant fraction of a second (or even multiple seconds). On Bitcoin network (600 sec average time between blocks) losing say 0.6 seconds to "stale work" means 0.1% stale shares but on p2pool with 30s average it is more like 2% ouch. This is in addition to other forms of stale shares due to network latency. The ability to abort all work rapidly to all cores and supply new work should result in GN doing good things on p2pool. |
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shit... over 100% increase? and for at least 6 months?
Probably not but it won't help. Looking at those estimates just as a ballpark view you see that most of gross revenue will come in the next 2 months and difficulty is almost certainly going to quadruple by the end of the year. The growth MAY (or may not) slow down after that but by then you are looking at 0.01 BTC per month so even lets say it slows down to only 50% growth per month so you make a couple more months at 0.01 BTC and then a couple more at 0.005 BTC and then a couple more at 0.0025 BTC. In the long run it doesn't change the gross revenue much. I would point out that $18 per GH is just insanely overpriced. It is like saying is a Prius a bad deal at $2,800,00 ea? Won't I show a profit from the reduced gas consumption? Miners paying <$5 per GH are unsure if they will show a profit (and they may or may not there are a lot of unknowns). $18/GH is just taking your money and lighting it on fire hoping it will produce a profit. |
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cex.io seemed to me a good investment... according to this calculator http://www.coinish.com/calc/, if i buy 1000 mh/s for 18 $ the break-even is 69 days and total income 76$/year, what am i doing wrong? You are assuming difficulty will be flat forever when in reality it is rising >100% per month. A crude guesstimate @ 100% month over month growth: http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/15fb55ff8aOver the last 90 days it has been closer to 130% month over month growth: http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/A meta question. If you had a widget which you could sell for $18 but would be worth (residual value + payments) >$36 in 70 days would you sell? Would anyone? Why wouldn't they wait 70 days and double their value? If you had a widget you could pawn off on a sucker that at best will produce $16 in gross revenue and more likely produce <$8 would you sell it? Which scenario seems more like CEX? |
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Litecoin shouldn't be looked at as silver while Bitcoin is gold. Others have brought up how easily divisible Bitcoin is compared to gold. I own a 1/10 oz gold piece that's about the size of a penny. It's worth about $130. Since it's already the size of a penny, it's impractical to divide any smaller...that's where silver (or copper) come in.
Instead, Litecoin and Bitcoin should be looked at as MasterCard vs. Visa. Most merchants accept both (except for my local DMV which only accepts MasterCard...go figure) and they both serve the same purpose.
That is a possible scenario for LTC however I would say the proof is in the pudding. Where is the LTC equivalent of coinbase, bitpay (and competitors), BitInstant, etc. People genuinely believed in Bitcoin far beyond what they could pump and dump to invest equity both the $$$ kind and the sweat kind to bring services to Bitcoin. It is those infrastructure services which will lay the foundation for broad merchant adoption. The "LTC gameplan" on the other hand is: 1) buy some LTC, 2) claim it is silver to BTC gold 3)  4) profit. If the LTC "boosters" really believed what they were saying they would be taking out loans, quiting their day jobs and starting the next big thing for LTC. Except they don't. Imagine if Mastercard hadn't done any work to build a network, recruit merchants, compete with VISA for mindshare, etc. It was just a brand nobody accepted and they went around claiming "Mastercard silver to VISAs gold". It's stock chart would look very similar to LTC exchange rate chart. |
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How can one make a positive ROI on CEX?
By selling to someone else at a higher price. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_foolIf I sell you a turd in a box for $18 and you sell it to some sucker for $20 we both profit and only the sucker loses everything. That is CEX "investing". Paying $18+ per GH today hoping someone dumber than you will pa $20 is well stupid. |
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Probably not and nobody wants your affiliate spam. Might have been smart to ask/read first. $18 per GH is insanely overpriced and you almost certainly will lose 50% to 90% of that unless you find a ... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_fool |
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