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3981  Economy / Economics / Re: How can we end the *VOLATILITY OF BITCOIN* on: January 27, 2023, 04:02:14 AM
another example
https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/country_price_rankings?itemId=8
milk
international milk prices are from $0.44-$5

thats a international "volatility" of milk speculation of 11x market window

and just like travelling from tunisia - lebanon to get milk at such a wide range of ask price (12x)

if i travelled norway-hawaii for the min max of fresh mined bitcoin there is a $15k-$90k range of ask. (6x)

so bitcoin is not as bad as people think in comparison to other international 'commodities'

more examples
https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/country_price_rankings?itemId=9
bread $0.14-$3.26 (23x)

yep if bread was sold on a international market. bread would see swings that move alot more and wider than bitcoin
3982  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Lightning Network Observer on: January 27, 2023, 03:37:02 AM
when you lot realise that LN is not bitcoin specific..

and is just another bridge subnetwork for multiple mainnets.. it will hit you hard
especially when other bridge subnetworks have more liquidity (avalance has 5700btc pegged, only 1 year old)

you will start to see more flaws in LN
do you guys even know why people are preferring to lock bitcoin up and using the UTXO as a peg to open tokens balance for payments on eth-20 to a tune of
5700 on avalance
173,000 on wbtc

where LN only has 5200
maybe if you observe the flaws, bugs and lack of monetary policy of LN to secure said pegged value in LN. you see why LN is falling on the sidelines while other subnetwork bridges are outpacing LN

oh and their tx per year stats.. their "time to 1mill tx" stats.. you might want to check their stats.. and then you will feel that empty feeling that LN is not living upto promises/expectations

heres another funny reminder
more people have moved btc value into taproot in just over a dozen months compared to to LN locked value
yep taproot based systems have about 23k and climbing

seem more people prefer taproot or erc-20 based collectives more then the LN collective

it pays to observe stats in their full context from source and in comparison to other systems promising similar features.. and not just be picky about something you seen on social media

and before you all cry that LN "is bitcoin"
try to read about the "cross platform" cross blockchain swaps
and i mean the original. not the updated one to brand phish bitcoin centric word play for hype

observe LN not through the narrow utopian eyelids of bestcase hope and dream. but in the factual state of LN 7 years in.. in comparison to all other bridge subnetworks similar offerings and ability.
3983  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Everything you wanted to know about Grayscale BTC Trust but were afraid to ask! on: January 27, 2023, 02:41:42 AM

then from 2025 we will see the central banks being able to hoard and grab bitcoin as business reserve(though current drafts only allow 2-5% of there collateral/reserves to be bitcoin)

I have very strong view against this projection. Central banks are known for having a very lax tolerance for those to try to steal the power from them. So I don't expect them adopting bitcoin as it would be a self-inflict damage.  

here is the thing
central banks are the mother cash provider to commercial banks and sister to the tax - treasury..
central banks are not the banks that customers have accounts with
they print the money. but dont give it to citizens direct

when commercial banks make mortgage agreements(in digital account balance) the COMMERCIAL BANK has to hold a % of paper money to keep ATM's filled to meet any expected cash daily withdrawals. meaning central banks only make profit to fill the treasury when commercial banks make debt
central banks make NO profits(to put into treasury) when people move their bank balance via visa/mastercard

the IRS get taxes when money moves between users(income/gains) and yes the IRS get taxes on gains of crypto. so crypto is not a threat its actually peoples reliance on visa/mastercard that has reduced central banks profits for treasury

which is why central banks want to bring the "fast payments"/"tap and pay" into the fold of central-commercial banks. rather than the likes of visa/mastercard who are making 2% tx fee where banks get nothing

central banks also. had international rules (IMF/BIS) where they could only hoard certain currency as reserves(leaning favour to the petro dollar) it was the central banks that begged BIS for a 5% ability to hoard decentralised cryptos like btc. and a random % of certain stable coin. where by the BIS compromised in the draft protocol for 2025 to be 2% (currently 0% still)

so its not the central banks hate of crypto. its their aversion to risk due to their BIS rules they follow
and again the central bank hoard of crypto is not about consumer level/retail service offering to customers of btc. its the central bank internal investment for the central bank profiting(adding more value to the national treasuries)

central banks are a business, but so is the IRs . and together they only make profit to feed the treasury when money moves/is swapped(wire transfers and debt creation). they dont make money on people saving it or microspending it on debit cards. so if people are trading currencies via wire transfering fiat to create another persons/businesses 'income' to increase. and creating debt. then central banks get profit

they dont see crypto "taking over" fiat/cbdc becasue of min wage, tax, fines, debt laws that keep fiat/cbdc in circulation

they see crypto as a open option currency to move in and out of. meaning wire transfer commercial bank payments to make and destroy account balance meaning  destroying 'cash' for free to then make commercial banks buy fresh 'cash' and IRS tax on those incomes when swaps are done
3984  Economy / Speculation / Re: Could this be the reason for the recent rise in Bitcoin price? on: January 26, 2023, 04:51:42 PM
"tucker fans" "fox news"
i think the issue is topic creator is looking at the wrong types of people as sources

its not due to FIAT debt ceiling or airports or any of that crap

its this simple

institutional betting on futures gambles of spot prices of bitcoin means those institutions then bot trade the spot market to keep the prices down / within their thin scope (resistance walls) so they their futures gambles win when they expire.. then the whales just turn off their bots for a few hours or days before setting a new narrow scope they want the price to sit between for the next period

you can spot it because looking on the 6 month market view. you see that for 1-8 weeks at a time the markets prices are thinly moving in pretty much horizontal for 1-8 weeks at a time
3985  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin limitation (self challenge) on: January 26, 2023, 04:46:06 PM
senwei SV6200E2 has a max output of 4.5KW

thats a heck of alot more power than needed to charge a cell phone/laptop
maybe instead of running it to power all devices, appliances and luxuries, you can economise its utility to spread out the utility length beyond 3 hours

also even with your high load appliances only getting 3 hours of electric. that 3 hours is more then enough to charge a cell phone to last for days thus if re-fuelling each day, i see no problem

if you plan and economise what you wish to power. then you can maximise the utility beyond 3 hours to also power some of your heavier load appliances

3986  Economy / Economics / Re: How can we end the *VOLATILITY OF BITCOIN* on: January 26, 2023, 04:01:07 PM
i am not the one that wants to be picky about numbers by looking for specific things by changing parameters until it fits a narrative, which keeps going against you so you wanna change parameters

you mentioned dates of ATH points and to go by previous YTD of such points(yes 3 happened in 2021). so i did. you dont seem happy about results so now you wanna move the goal posts again??

whats next.. go by halving cycle to then find a new plot point
or to go by bear or bull of the ultimate low and high per period(as just mentioned)..
ok lets go do that

first price discovery 0.03 first ath $30 = 1000x
next ATL 3 next ATH 1.2k = 400x
next ATL 325 next ATH 20k = 61x
next ATL 3100 next ATH 70k = 22x


any ways.. my initial point is the bitcoin system is itself shortening the trade window multiplier naturally. (as shown by many numbers listed in last few posts)

we also have the whales since mid 2022 artificially thinning the spot market varience by controlling the spot price movements so they can win their futures market s bets(only releasing their resistance walls when their futures contracts expire)

however if we next were to be foolish and beg some regulator or the exchanges to implement "circuit breaks" where trading is temporarily halted if prices move by more then x%. we are then going against the practical and natural economics of bitcoins deflationary path, and trying to over manipulate it

here is my point again.
fiat is not stable!!
just walking a few streets down the road you can find the same products at different price ranges.
come back different weeks and the prices of goods are different again.
we have just got soo used to it with slogans like "discount" and "sales season" "inflation" that we dont see it as volatile we see it as opportunity

yet some want to manipulate the markets and remove its natural fluidity just to fit in some "stable" box of one countries desire, even if it can then be against another countries benefit.. um no thanks

WORLD value:premium is $15k-90k(ish(rounded))

and american home hobby miners average residential electric costs, thus break even is about $30k
i fully understand american miners hate it when the price was $17k-$24k (prev 6 month) as it meant they cant mine profitably
i fully understand american buyers hate it when the price was $35k-$70k (2021-early 2022 era) as it meant they cant buy it cheap

yes i get it they would love it if bitcoin stayed around $25k-$35k permanently so part of the year they can mine when premium and sell.. and buy when low

but for a world currency. the window is wide.. due to how the politics of forex, that want to have different countries fiat rates to be wide apart so they can then buy cheap imports from 3rd world countries and such.

yes if people in africa got paid min wage at same rate as americans the window would closer.. the same goes if electric was sold at the same rate world wide the window would closer

but its not. so we have to accept how things are
3987  Economy / Economics / Re: How can we end the *VOLATILITY OF BITCOIN* on: January 26, 2023, 03:30:21 PM
when bitcoin was 2 years old(2011) swinging by 100x in a few months ($0.30 to $30) was a big deal
we have not seen a 100x swing since

when bitcoin was 4 years old(2013) swinging by 85x in a year (jan $14 to dec $1.2k) was a big deal
we have not seen a 85x swing since

when bitcoin was 8 years old(2017) swinging by 20x in a year (jan $1k to dec $20k) was a big deal
we have not seen a 20x swing since

when bitcoin was 12 years old(2021) swinging by 3x in a year (jan $25k to nov $70k) was a big deal
we may see a 3-7x swing again

the swings are not getting wider. things are calming down

Bitcoin went from 3k in 2020 to 70k a year later no ? But ok indeed it's slowly getting less and less volatile

well i was using calender year not YTD

so lets use YTD
jul 2010-2011 0.09 to $30 = 333x
nov 2012-2013 11 to 1.2k = 110x
dec 2016-2017 950-20k = 21x
mar 2020-2021 4.8k-61k=13x
apr 2020-2021 6.8k-63k=9x
oct 2020-2021 10k=70k = 7x
3988  Economy / Economics / Re: How can we end the *VOLATILITY OF BITCOIN* on: January 26, 2023, 12:42:58 PM
when bitcoin was 2 years old(2011) swinging by 100x in a few months ($0.30 to $30) was a big deal
we have not seen a 100x swing since

when bitcoin was 4 years old(2013) swinging by 85x in a year (jan $14 to dec $1.2k) was a big deal
we have not seen a 85x swing since

when bitcoin was 8 years old(2017) swinging by 20x in a year (jan $1k to dec $20k) was a big deal
we have not seen a 20x swing since

when bitcoin was 12 years old(2021) swinging by 3x in a year (jan $25k to nov $70k) was a big deal
we may see a 3-7x swing again

the swings are not getting wider. things are calming down
3989  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Can bitcoin compete with CBDC's? on: January 26, 2023, 12:19:37 PM
This question being asked is like giving CBDCs much importance. Bitcoin is an independent decentralized digital token that runs on a principle of transferring of control and without an established value or backing, whilst CBDCs has the backing of central banks!
 Also, since a CBDC is a project of the bank, it's liable to be susceptible to an EO 6102 attack, which makes it less safe compared to Bitcoin that can be stored on a wallet.
I totally agree with your opinion, CDBC is a bank project while bitcoin is a decentralized digital token, so we shouldn't compare bitcoin with CDBC, because CDBC has an Explorer or a book that can see everyone's transactions so that it is controlled so every time we make a transaction the government knows where to go of our transactions, of course we are vigilant including myself personally because our account data is tracked to who and where it went.

but if you research them you will see they dont have what you say
they are "2 layer" networks

a chain of blocks with multisig transactions where central and commercial banks set their reserves

commercial banks then (multisig) their reserves between each other to settle their commercial end payment route of their subnetwork funded reserves

below that they have the commercial banks delegated to police their own customers
in a subnetwork
(imaging the pegging mechanism like blockstream liquid network)
where they only report the suspicious transactions to authorities

and the customer payments between
the commercial bank-customer subnetwork as not a hop& spoke model like the failure of LN but instead its the hub('factory'/watchtower) model

where the hubs(commercial banks) give out inbound balance to customers

its no shocker why certain groups are playing around with certain idea's, where those idea's didnt actually form naturally from crypto guys. it formed from them being part of the corporate bank hyperledger design committees, injecting and influencing suggested proposals to the crypto community. and using crypto as the sand box test of open source coded programmable money
(in short cryptocurrency devs did not invent the buzzword "layer 2")
(in short the banking groups got cheap labour prototypes to emulate.. via crypto development, whilst we got delays and stalls in scaling solutions, while devs 'played possum' of bitcoin. whilst actively sandboxing idea's inspired by the corporate banking world)
3990  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Issues with Proof-of-Work on: January 26, 2023, 07:06:14 AM
Only two bitcoin pools were responsible for mining more than half of Bitcoin's blocks in the second half of December. Doesn't that prove POW is vulnerable as well in the sense that a few mining pools make up a super large portion of the network?

what you think of when u mention Pow pool are not what you think
within those pools are sub groups of stratums where there are subgroups of miners per stratum. located all over the world with different managers. and people can pool hop to different pools/stratums in milliseconds

when times are good and there are no malicious proposals where devs made bad code and blackmailing the network.. hashrate per pool is meaningless(in regards to rules)
if devs were to make malicious proposals(taking weeks-months to enforce/activate). asics can pool hop in MILLISECONDS

no one in ethereum PoS can de-stake from their CEX pool right now
3991  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Can bitcoin compete with CBDC's? on: January 26, 2023, 07:04:21 AM
It's actually opposite as government are trying to compete with Bitcoin through introducing these CDBC and giving people digital payment access but it's the same like any other digital payment but the only thing they add on is Blockchain technology but if you say about competing with btc then there's no chance at all as we are comparing centralised token with decentralised coin so what do you think about it?

banks already had digital payment methods
banks are not competing against bitcoin
banks actually want to invest in bitcoin(see BIS reports for proposals for 2025)
banks actually want to service customers in-house and compete and destroy payment services like visa/mastercard
3992  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Can bitcoin compete with CBDC's? on: January 26, 2023, 06:55:16 AM
This question being asked is like giving CBDCs much importance. Bitcoin is an independent decentralized digital token that runs on a principle of transferring of control and without an established value or backing, whilst CBDCs has the backing of central banks!
 Also, since a CBDC is a project of the bank, it's liable to be susceptible to an EO 6102 attack, which makes it less safe compared to Bitcoin that can be stored on a wallet.

CBDC do not have backed value.. fiat had its EO 6102 attack decades ago and now banks dont want value store.. thus avoiding such attack ever again
they have utility laws (min wage/taxes/fines/debt) which are not economic number value.. but sentimental "values"(totally different things)

bitcoin does have economic value. and its not as simple as a eo6102 attack to remove it
all that an attacker would be creating is a new separate currency which no one likes(altcoin)
if governments pressured businesses to legal tender then altcoin currency and remove "currency" utility from the standard bitcoin.by those services 
then standard bitcoin no longer defined as a currency..(no government financial  jurisdiction) so it gets its freedom back and is defined again as private property. which governments cant then regulate as a currency because they took themselves out of such

businesses can be merchants instead of exchanges(like pokemon trading auctions)  and still offer swaps. without the regulation hassle of 'currency jurisdiction'
3993  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Issues with Proof-of-Work on: January 26, 2023, 06:43:34 AM
Apart from the drama that Franky loves to raise about devs,
crypto is not self coding AI.. all rules of al cryptos are dev created!!
its how code is created.
ignoring the politics is allowing their centralisation to influence their ability to activate without restraight

they call themselves "core" "reference" "proposer" client for a reason
its bitcoins only drawback. head even lead maintainer of core admits how core is a central point of failure which they are trying to get away from

it pays to keep attention to details and critique proposers/devs influences. to not let them have free reign
3994  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Issues with Proof-of-Work on: January 26, 2023, 06:25:55 AM
PoS issues are a multitude of things
but lets use ethereum as an example

just look at the 6month market charts
ethereum blind follows bitcoin market.

this is because ethereum does not have an independent community.
by this i mean if it did they would have their own sentiments of price and desire and their markets would not resemble the wiggles(ups and downs) of bitcoins.
lack of independence/desire means the markets just follow the prime markets due to arbitrage opportunities made by prime mainnets of real good utility/community/value

other factors are although ethereum switched to stake. they didnt add the redemption method at the merge. meaning peoples value has been locked and unmovable between 'staker pools' thus frozen and unspendable

yes they can find off-market trades to swap ownership. but thats just taking one person out away from his stake to put another sucker into that persons stake

these stakes in coinbase for instance are locked to coinbase. meaning if coinbase were to want to change some code. users owning that stake will not want to oppose coinbase because opposing a change = stake being destroyed and the owner losing it all. so they blindly go along with their stakers plans
AKA centralisation

other aspect of centralisation is that the threshold to be a staker is 32 coin meaning more then $30k invested. so people end up having to pool/syndicate smaller amounts with other people. thus less independency and along with the other flaws above less freedom to get out and just say no

with bitcoin Pow
asics can just pool jump in milliseconds away from malicious pools at no cost/harm
3995  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Issues with Proof-of-Work on: January 26, 2023, 06:10:40 AM
in regards to Pow mining it does not matter how many transactions are in a block
the PoW part of mining. just solves a puzzle based on a 256bit hash.
no matter the blockdata load they all resort to a 256bit ID no matter the scale. so it has nothing to do with PoW being the problem of scaling

PoW is not limiting scaling.
scaling is delayed due to developer/corporate sponsor politics of not wanting to scale bitcoin because they want to offramp users to subnetworks rather than scale bitcoin even by % periodically..
 the stall/delay is further becoming impatient due to the prime candidate subnetworks they promised to be the "solution" subnetworks.. have flaws of their own and are not fit to handle the scales they were promoted to handle (they are worse than what bitcoin can handle onchain now (unless you only want chewing gum/coffee amounts))

bitcoin however has a great value lock. and yes many subnetworks that "bridge" between many mainnets are already fostering bitcoin value as liquidity for their own network units. and yes some of them are even out liquidity providing compared to the promoted ones promised 7-8 years ago

and all this political commercial, corporate promises has nothing to do with PoW
3996  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: would bitcoin be capable of switching consensus methods on: January 26, 2023, 05:50:51 AM
if your thinking of a completely new rules. like changing to PoS or changing supply. or any of the big deal things..

already done infinitum.. there are hundreds and hundreds of altcoins that done this

its called "forking"

want more than "21m bitcoin" there's already an altcoin for that
want less than "21m bitcoin" there's already an altcoin for that
want less blocktime there's already an altcoin for that
want [insert anything] there's already an altcoin for that
want PoS instead of Pow there's already an altcoin for that

if you want the real bitcoin to change it require pretty much unanimous economic node(merchant/services) to treat the fork as the mainchain. and for all the network power/valididation/acceptance of block solving methodology to strengthen the main chain that users follow and continue with

otherwise you are just forking off to make an altcoin in a new community
3997  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Can bitcoin compete with CBDC's? on: January 26, 2023, 04:53:01 AM
central banks/commercial banks used for decades bridged subnetworks (visa/mastercard) for daily purchases where the base network of the BANKS are for savings/settlements

layer 1              layer 2
wire transfer vs tap&pay
bank account     visa/masterdard

CBDC is going to be no different a blockchain base layer for the central-commercial wires. and a second system for the person to person payments (via the base system in the background settling up those movements)

the difference between crypto and CBDC is  crypto=deflation cbdc = inflation

so think of crypto mainnets as pensions/savings but with more freedom to spend without banking limits and fuss, and where your savings/accumulations do give good returns on the long term(more groceries per $100 initially invested n crypto)... unlike banks where you end up getting to buy less groceries per $100 the longer you save

oh one last thing. bitcoin has many sub networks that offer the niche "fast payment"
but im afraid LN is not a bitcoin only feature and not the solution. its 7 years old and has had multiple "failures to launch"
there are other subnetworks that are under 2 years old that have locked up more liquidity and are doing more.

but bitcoin also needs to scale too as a base layer and not just push people to subnetworks
3998  Economy / Economics / Re: How can we end the *VOLATILITY OF BITCOIN* on: January 26, 2023, 04:01:12 AM
First, I'm afraid we cannot just easily make volatility end. Many are saying the price of Bitcoin is manipulated. It may be to a certain extent, but nobody could just like pump and dump Bitcoin. It is almost a $0.5 trillion asset and it has tens of billions of daily volume. You can't easily remove volatility from it. It should also imply you also need to manipulate the news and the sentiment around it.

bitcoin is not a 'almost $0.5trill asset'

at best this week is a ~$23k asset. but even that does not mean it needs 23k to trade..
people trade 0.02 amounts(sub $500). so it only needs (sub 500) per order average per trade to keep the price near the $23k this week. and by doing arbitrage loops can do it with the same $360 allotment over and over and over hundreds of times to churn/eat/buzzthrough the opposing orders trying to freemarket away from $23k

the 0.5t is just a meaningless multiplier number of math after effect. not a value/reserve amount protecting bitcoin. the market cap is a end result of high school math. not a source reason of value security

with that aid the manipulators can keep prices within regions for 1-8 weeks but even they get bored and want to move the market or run out of small side holdings to keep up the resistance walls

anyway as alrady mentioned in other posts. peole dont care about volatility, becasue we have got used to it so much we dont see it. it usually requires media to high light it to death until people se it again

take food prices
same batch of goods are $188 in new hamshire and $555 in hawaii
so there is a 3x disparagement of value sentiment across just america about how much people value bread, lettuce potato etc
https://www.move.org/the-average-cost-of-food-in-the-us/#Methodology
3999  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin hits 500 GB size hard disk data on: January 26, 2023, 03:53:10 AM
@sarah
850-481 = 369
imagining a 1.3mb average data load now per block
~ another 283k blocks
so about the 1.05m blockheight mark.. about 5 years from now
So, we do have not to worry much if having 1 terabyte HD right now, because 5 years is enough to start saving money if the user wants to upgrade to 5 or 10 TB. The problem is, If we change to a new HD (from 1 TB to 5 TB), will it Synchronization speed will be the same as before? Because I tried it and changed the target to external HD, it need more time to verify the block and syncing hardware

changing from lets say a 2016 era pc to a 2026 era pc(second hand in 2028 thus cheaper) you will notice benefits of the initial sync due to hardware efficiencies  (maybe 7hours or less)
however you wont see the benefits now if you just swapped CPU ram now(keepong blockchain backup) because you are already in the 'after initial blockchain download' stage.. so the normal daily activity of 'live' data flow to stay at blockheight is meaningless to a computer

but the initial block download being done on a 2016pc is still not bad (14 years of data in 24 hours) and with a 2026 PC will be better

all in all. most people upgrade their computers every 4-8 years normally. and for reasons outside of bitcoin. so thinking you need to specifically invest to stay up to date just because of bitcoin is a not even a thing people need to think or worry about

you only hear the FUD from idiots that cant math, and who just want to call out that bitcoin is dead, not fit, broke so they can advertise their silly subnetwork as the solution. even when their subnetworks have a heck of alot more flaws
4000  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Big money bad for bitcoin in the long run on: January 26, 2023, 02:19:25 AM
But the scary part about this is that Big money is also flowing into the crypto economy that will push price to easily register new highs, but this comes at a price, when these whales decide to take out their money..

ARK and blackrock had fingers in the sub prime mortgage chaos that caused the 2008 crisis..
.. anymore need to be said
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